What If... The Chads Fell Off?

You'd never have thought there was so much to say about holes in a piece of card. But, as the world's press, and seemingly all the lawyers in the USA, descended on Florida in November 2000, the premier democracy in the world was plunged into a period of constitutional crisis. The Presidential election, between Democratic Vice President Al Gore and Republican Governor of Texas George W. Bush, had ended in a dead heat. Gore was ahead in the popular vote by around 500,000 votes, but in that bizarre American institution, the Electoral College, the two candidates were virtually tied. The closest states were New Mexico, Oregon and Florida, but with 25 electoral votes, Florida was the only one big enough to tip the balance. Further complicating the subject was the nature of Florida's voting machines, which hadn't correctly processed all the votes. Also rather conveniently, Bush's younger brother Jeb was the Governor of Florida. Weeks of chaos followed, as arguments raged over hanging chads. The battle went the whole way to the US Supreme Court, when on December 12th the Court made it's ruling. A statewide recount was ordered, and on January 1st 2001 the result was announced: Gore had snatched victory by 171 votes. He was to become the 43rd President of the United States.

Bush returned to Texas, clearly devastated by his loss. It also marked the end of his national career, and severely damaged the political future of the Bush family; both father and son had now lost the Presidency. For Gore, the victory was narrow, harrowingly so, but it was enough to put him in the White House, and that was what mattered. In his Inauguration Address in January 2001 he acknowledged how close and bitter the campaign had been, hoping "this belatedly broken impasse can point us all to a new common ground, for its very closeness can serve to remind us that we are one people with a shared history and a shared destiny." He hinted at ambitious plans to help restart the US economy after the bursting of the Dotcom bubble and increase environmental protection.

Yet what a Gore Presidency would have looked like under normal circumstances will never be known. In September 2001, barely eight months into his term, Islamic fundamentalist terrorists hijacked aeroplanes and used them to destroy the World Trade Centre in New York; the Pentagon was also attacked while a fourth airliner crashed in rural Pennsylvania, stopped from reaching Washington thanks to the courage of the hostages. The gaping, smouldering holes left in the New York skyline brought a guillotine down across American history. President Gore was in Florida on a schools visit when he heard the news, along with Governor Jeb Bush. Gore immediately realised this was an event of incredible proportions, and left Jeb to handle the schoolchildren whilst he boarded Air Force One and raced back to the White House. From there, his calm and measured words, promising to help those devastated and to try those responsible, helped to rally the American people, as simultaneously messages of support flooded in from across the world. Fairly quickly, the culprits were identified as Al-Qaeda, led by the shadowy Osama Bin Laden from the mountains of Afghanistan, where they were shielded by the ruling Taliban. President Gore laid down an ultimatum to the Taliban; hand Bin Laden over to the International Criminal Court, or the world would respond.

The UN invasion of Afghanistan in early 2002 failed to capture Bin Laden, who would remain in hiding for another nine years, however it did succeed in overthrowing the Taliban, and the subsequent international reconstruction effort led to the election of the first civilian administration in 2004, and the withdrawal of all US troops by October of that year. With such an easy overseas success under his belt, Gore came under immense pressure, mainly from the Republicans but also from Vice-President Joe Lieberman, to finish the work of President Bush from 1991 and invade Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein from power. In the anti-war camp was most of the Democratic Party, and the vast majority of the international community. This gave the President an important bulwark against the war; it would ruin the vast pool of international sympathy which the United States had gained on 9/11. And so, despite all the howls of protest, Saddam was left in power. Of course, back in 2003 there was no way of knowing that in 2011 he would be toppled by the Iraqi people themselves. Unfortunately, in the short term it made Gore look like he was shrinking from a fight, and at the 2002 mid-term elections the Democrats took a pounding, making the ambitious healthcare and environmental packages devised by the President look even less likely. In the following atmosphere of gridlock, plus public fatigue with the Democrats after nearly 12 years in power, few were surprised when Gore was narrowly ousted from the White House by Republican Mike Huckabee in 2004. Gore was devastated, as Bush Senior and Carter had been before him, at having been ousted after only a single term. Only his 2007 Noble Peace Prize, for environmental activism and dedication to multilateral action, helped to ease the pain.

However, 2004 wasn't a bad election to lose. President Huckabee saw his term blighted by catastrophes. His poor response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was widely condemned, while Gore's warnings about the dangers of global warming began to look increasingly relevant. Overseas, the airstrikes against Iraq and other states accused of sponsoring terrorism undid the Clinton-Gore efforts to act multilaterally. And then, just when it appeared that nothing could get worse, the US economy went into a downward spiral as the financial sector threatened to drag the US into a depression. Huckabee became the second one-term President in a row, as voters ran back to the safety of the Democrats. The new President made an excellent start, helping to turn round the US economy and pull it back from the brink, whilst also starting to rebuild America's image overseas after the disastrous military actions of the Republican years. And so we had the bizarre spectacle of a Bush-Clinton rematch this year, as President Hillary Clinton saw off the challenge from Jeb Bush.

P.S. US Presidents and Vice Presidents, 1993-2017

1993-2001- Bill Clinton/ Al Gore (Democrat)
2001-2005- Al Gore/ Joe Lieberman (Democrat)
2005-2009- Mike Huckabee/ Olympia Snowe (Republican)
2009-2017- Hillary Clinton/ Evan Bayh (Democrat)

The Wit and Wisdom of... Dag Hammarskjöld

It is when we all play safe that we create a world of utmost insecurity. It is when we all play safe that fatality will lead us to our doom. It is in the "dark shade of courage" alone that the spell can be broken.

Dag Hammarskjöld, United Nations Secretary-General, 1962

The Wit and Wisdom of... John Major

I know how hard so many of you have worked. I know how much you have sacrificed, given up, hoped, dreamed for a different result and a different outcome tonight. It hasn't proved that way. I don't think there is much we left undone which we could have done. There are some times in politics when the ball just rolls in the opposite direction, and there isn't a great deal you can do about it.

John Major, in the early hours of May 2nd 1997, conceding defeat in the 1997 election.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bobby Kennedy

The problem of power is how to achieve its responsible use rather than its irresponsible and indulgent use — of how to get men of power to live for the public rather than off the public.

Robert F. Kennedy, 1964

What If... PM for PM?

'It was the phone call Gordon Brown had been dreading. "Gordon," said the voice on the line, "I think we need to have a little chat..." And that marked the beginning of the end really.'

The day was Monday, June 8th, 2009. With the arrival of the last results of the EU elections from Scotland, the electoral whirlwind which Labour had experienced the previous Thursday was at last clear. In the European elections, it had been driven into third place behind David Cameron's resurgent Conservative party and the fringe party UKIP, polling a mere 15.7%. In the local elections, it was even worse. Also pushed into third place, on 23% of the vote, Labour had lost all it's councils in this cycle; vast swathes of the country had not a single Labour politician in them. With a general election due within the year, this was the crisis point. Many Labour members were despairing, and the MPs were starting to panic. And nothing is more dangerous than a panicking backbencher. And so the plotters began to gather. It was plain that, under Brown, Labour would slip to a landslide defeat in 2010. But they had one major obstacle. The long Blair-Brown feud had left an assumption, that Gordon would be leader next; as a result, there were very few other senior figures with the stature to lead. More importantly, any challenger would look infeasible.

Enter John Bercow, then the recently elected Speaker of the House of Commons. He had been asked by Brown to make a ruling, which at the time appeared merely procedural, but would have a profound impact on the future of the country. Bercow was being asked to rule on whether a peer could answer questions in the House of Commons. Brown had a particular peer in mind. The crowning glory of Brown's 2008 cabinet reshuffle had been to resurrect the career of Peter Mandelson, one of the founding fathers of New Labour, but since 2004 living in semi-disgraced exile in Brussels. Brown made Mandelson a Lord, and put him charge of the new Business department, charging him with leading Britain's charge to economic growth. Given Mandelson had previously resigned from the cabinet not once but twice, and that the two men were bitter enemies, the comeback was all the more remarkable. Bercow did sign off the motion, to allow Mandelson to do battle with his Tory shadow Kenneth Clarke. Mandelson's superb performances in the Commons began to make people sit up and take note, a position strengthened when he received a thumping reception from the 2009 Labour conference. PM, as he was affectionately known, had won round both Brown and the Labour members- could the country be next?

And so the plotters struck. On October 20th an opinion poll showed Labour in third place nationally. With this cue, Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, former cabinet ministers, wrote to all their fellow MPs to try and trigger an election. Although Brown narrowly staved off a no-confidence vote in his leadership, he was mortally wounded. It was the call from Mandelson the next morning, brilliant recorded in Alistair Campbell's diary, which ended things, as he persuaded Brown that, either he went, or the party would tear itself in two. The cabinet had steeled itself, apart from the ultra-Brownite Ed Balls and his wife, Yvette Cooper, who left along with Brown, to simmer on the backbenches. As the cabinet met that morning, they needed to put forward a name to fill the vacancy. 'Why not Peter?' suggested Harriet Harman, the Deputy Leader. And so it went through. Lord Mandelson was now the first peer to be Prime Minister since Lord Salisbury in 1901. He had gone from twice resignee to Prime Minister in eight years. He was also only the second openly gay leader in any Western democracy, behind Iceland. It remained to be seen what others would think.

The press had a field day, railing against the move as an undemocratic coup conducted behind closed doors (which, to be fair, it was). The Opposition parties were hardly any better. There was widespread confusion as to whether it was even possible for a peer to be Prime Minister, as constitutional pundits weighed in on whether the idea was merely dormant or had become illegal. It was also pointed out that the last time there had been a third Prime Minister in the same Parliament was 1940, and the economic woes of 2009 were not that bad. But amidst all the criticism, there were some bonuses. The Murdoch press was less aggressive than feared, while Labour members, for the first time in ages, began to feel hope.

Mandelson set to work right away. He immediately asked Alistair Darling to announce a programme of cuts to public spending, to demonstrate that the government understood the importance of getting the national debt under control. Darling chose to not replace Trident and to delay new buildings for schools, along with some superficial cuts to welfare. While the Brownites howled, many in the press and the public were impressed with Mandelson's honesty, compared with Gordon Brown's burying of his head in the sand.

The Tories had been outflanked. Cameron and George Osborne seemed whiny and empty when compared to Mandelson's experience, and Labour drew neck and neck with them in the opinion polls. The deadlock remained as the election campaign got underway in 2010. Labour's manifesto promised to half the deficit in the next Parliament, while the welfare state would be radically restructured to ensure that it returned to it's original role of a safety net. They also pledged to continue with the constitutional reform they had begun in 1997, and to work with the EU and the G20 to introduce a Robin Hood Tax. Many of the New Labour voters who would otherwise have deserted the party were impressed, while Mandelson's cool performance under fire in the TV debates helped improve his image versus Cameron. Even the Sun admitted that it's earlier endorsement of Cameron may have been a bit hasty. However, the 13 years of Labour rule left many feeling unsure whether they could back Labour under any leader. The result was a hung parliament, with the Conservatives on 286 seats, Labour with 279 and the Liberal Democrats on 57. But given how Labour had been expecting to do, it felt like a victory, and to the leader, the recently de-nobled and narrowly elected MP for Durham North-West, they gave the credit. True, plain old Peter Mandelson, as he now was, proved unable to prevent the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from forming, but the coalition's narrow majority, plus it's turbulent time in office since, mean that many now expect Mandelson will return to Number 10 in May 2015, if not sooner.

P.S. Mandelson Cabinet, 2009

Prime Minister- Lord Mandelson

Chancellor of the Exchequer- Alistair Darling

Foreign Secretary- David Miliband

Home Secretary- Alan Johnson

Justice Secretary- Jack Straw

Defence Secretary- Bob Ainsworth

Health Secretary- Andy Burnham

Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Alan Milburn
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- James Purnell
Work and Pensions Secretary- John Denham
Transport Secretary- Lord Adonis
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Hilary Benn
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Ed Miliband
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Jon Cruddas
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain
Northern Irish Secretary- Patricia Hewitt
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Liam Byrne
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Geoff Hoon
Leader of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall

What If... The Gipper Got In Early?

At last, the grand spectacle that was the US Presidential election is fading from memory; but don't worry, it'll soon be time for the primaries to be restarting, and with the incumbent barred from standing again, you can bet these will start again early. Some bemoan this constant electioneering, and wonder aloud if the primaries actually matter?

Ask the late Gerald Ford. In 1976 Ford was plunged headlong into the fight of his political life. Having become President in 1974 by default, when the disgraced Richard Nixon had resigned amid the Watergate scandal, leaving Vice-President Ford to take the helm. Ford had instantly alienated many moderate voters by pardoning Nixon for any crimes he may have committed whilst in office, and a sluggish economy put the President behind all likely Democratic candidates in the polls. Meanwhile, the GOP's right wing was infuriated with Ford's perceived easy going foreign policy, which they saw as betraying South Vietnam and bowing to the Soviet Union. At their head was the outgoing Governor of California, former film star Ronald Reagan, who had been the darling of the conservative movement since he gave a rousing speech in support of Barry Goldwater's doomed 1968 presidential run. Reagan announced a primary challenge to Ford in autumn 1975, and steadily ate into Ford's delegate lead; by the 1976 Republican National Convention, the race between the two men really was too close to call.

The two men vied for the remaining delegates, but it remained impossibly close. Eventually, Reagan just pipped Ford to the post, thanks in part to delaying the announcement of moderate Senator Richard Schwekier as his running mate, which may otherwise have cost him the conservative vote. With the Convention in chaos, Reagan imposed order with a fantastic speech, urging voters to rally around him, proclaiming his vision of America as a 'Shining City on a Hill.' The GOP was enthused, and Reagan hit the road with the momentum behind him.

Even so, the election proved to be very close. The Democratic nominee, former Governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter, was running as a Washington outsider to try and capitalise on the public revulsion over the corruption of Watergate. Also a Washington outsider, Reagan neutralised this advantage, and proved a much more effective media campaigner than Carter, dismissing his criticisms in the TV debate with the swipe 'There you go again.' And yet, Carter's message that the Republicans weren't to be trusted hit home, and in the week of polling the two candidates were neck and neck. In the end, Reagan squeezed home, winning 271 electoral votes and a small plurality of the popular vote. Carter returned to Georgia, later to be UN Secretary-General, but for now a broken man.

Reagan assumed office in 1977, and immediately set his plan for economic recovery in place. Under Nixon and Ford, the economy had begun to falter, with growth dipping and inflation surging. Reagan and his advisors believed that they had the answer. A short, sharp, shock of deflation, achieved by slashing taxes, spending and regulation, would eventually cause inflation to fall. Reagan warned the American people that things would get worse before they got better, and in that first element his administration succeeded brilliantly. Unemployment surged, as thousands of businesses went bust, and inflation continued to rise out of control. The economy, which had been recovering from the severe bust of 1973-75, plunged back into recession. The appointment of Reagan's economics guru, Arthur Laffer, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1978, signalled that there would be no turning back. A view more in touch with that of most Americans was the CIA Director, George Bush, who labelled the strategy 'voodoo economics.'

Away from the USA, Reagan's foreign policy did little to endear the world to the United States. He adopted a hard line towards the USSR, which responded by severing virtually all diplomatic ties with the West, seemingly taking the world to the brink of nuclear war. The refusal to negotiate the end of the US presence at the Panama Canal led to American forces there effectively being under siege, and covert CIA aid to Afghan resistance fighters lit a spark under the future threat of Islamic fundamentalism. However, it was Iran which came to define Reagan's presidency. He pledged as much help to the beleaguered Shah as possible, yet was unable to prevent the Shah being toppled in the Islamic Revolution. Reagan then committed a massive blunder, by offering the Shah refuge in the US. The response of the revolutionaries was to storm the US embassy in Tehran and take the staff hostage. Through most of 1979 and 1980, the crisis dragged on, until in  April 1980 Reagan took the ultimate gamble. Operation El Dorado Canyon was launched, with US war planes pounding Iranian military installations and special forces landing in Tehran to try and rescue the hostages. A secret deal with the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, also saw him launch a land invasion of Iran. The mission was a disaster, with the hostages being executed, and the subsequent oil embargo by OPEC plunging the West further into economic crisis.

President Reagan now looked like the reckless cowboy many had warned he would be. With the jobless queues growing at home, and the US humiliated abroad, Reagan lost the 1980 presidential election to Ted Kennedy by a landslide; not even Kennedy's murky past at Chappaquiddick could save Reagan. President Kennedy immediately accepted the resignation of Arthur Laffer, and put his own man Paul Volcker in the driving seat. Between them, these two men helped to restore the US economy back to being the world's prime economic force, while overseas Kennedy helped to restore the US' tarnished reputation, especially thanks to his cooperation with Mikhail Gorbachev as the Soviet Union unravelled. His universal healthcare programme, while controversial, was eventually gratefully received by millions of Americans. As for the Republican party, they would not be trusted with returning to power until 1996, when moderate John McCain was entrusted with the Presidency. However, this trust was still fragile, as Mitt Romney found out to his cost when he presided over the recent Great Recession, which saw voters flock to President Clinton in 2008 and again just last week.

P.S. US Presidents, 1969-Present Day

1969-1974- Richard Nixon (Republican)
1974-1977- Gerald Ford (Republican)
1977-1981- Ronald Reagan (Republican)
1981-1989- Edward Kennedy (Democrat)
1989-1997- Al Gore (Democrat)
1997-2005- John McCain (Republican)
2005-2009- Mitt Romney (Republican)
2009-2017- Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bill Clinton, Mk III

I end tonight where it all began for me; I still believe in a place called Hope.

Bill Clinton, accepting the Democratic Party nomination for President, July 16th 1992.

The Wit and Wisdom of... JFK

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.

President John F Kennedy, Inaugural Address, 20th January 1961

Four More Years

Four years ago I was barely a fresher, and should have been concerned with going out, getting hammered, and whatever it is freshers actually do. And yet four years ago tomorrow, I dragged myself out of bed at 06:55. I was desperate to hear the news. Went for the radio (those of you who remember my old laptop will understand why it wasn't really an option...). And then heard these magic words:

"US Senator Barack Obama has opened up a large lead over Republican opponent John McCain in...

To be brutally honest, I didn't listen to the rest of the report. I'd heard enough. The Democrats were back in the White House, and the first election I'd followed properly had been won by a candidate who seemed to epitomise cool. Especially when compared to the man who was then in the Oval Office:

It now seems that winning was the easy bit for the junior Senator from Illinois. And this time round, even victory is in doubt. So I'm going to stay up and watch it, just to be on the safe side. I hope that, in November 2016, I can sit down and write a piece saying how Obama succeeded. Here's to Hope.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Harry S. Truman

All of you, I am sure, have heard many cries about Government interference with business and about "creeping socialism." I should like to remind the gentlemen who make these complaints that if events had been allowed to continue as they were going prior to March 4, 1933, most of them would have no businesses left for the Government or for anyone else to interfere with

President Harry S. Truman, 1950. Two years earlier, Truman had pulled off a spectacular election victory for the Democrats, despite being miles behind in the polls throughout the campaign.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Barack Obama

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term. But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as president. And we know the government can't solve every problem.

But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join in the work of remaking this nation, the only way it's been done in America for 221 years — block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night.

This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were.

President-Elect Barack Obama, victory speech, November 4th 2008

What If... Prime Minister David Davis?

What a roll our Prime Minister is on. Having charmed first David Letterman in the USA, then charmed his party at conference the other week, this week closes with a political bombshell; we're going to the polls in early November as part of a snap election. And who can blame him? Ahead in the opinion polls, and with an easy advantage over Ed Miliband, it would be foolish to pass up this golden opportunity.

There's also the chance that the PM favours autumn elections. After all, it was in the autumn of 2005 that David Davis became leader of the Conservative party, narrowly beating the slick, young moderniser David Cameron. Many in the media had long tipped Davis as the front runner. However, he gave a poor conference speech, and it briefly looked as if Cameron had leapt into the lead. But out in the shires, where the Tory members were, experienced, Thatcherite rigour beat new, cuddly modernising any day. Even so, it was close. Many attributed Davis' last minute surge to his key role in bringing about Tony Blair's first parliamentary defeat, over plans to introduce 90 day detention without trial. The triumphant Davis wasn't able to be rid of the Cameroons entirely, and was required to keep many of the so called 'modernisers' in the Shadow Cabinet.

Davis got off to a good start. Blair's popularity was plumbing rock bottom. Davis rapidly pulled ahead of Blair in the polls, and kept this lead through 2006 and 2007. Davis' strategy was built on a crucial idea; that the Conservatives no longer needed to apologise for their governance of Britain between 1979 and 1997, but instead needed to show how they could govern Britain successfully in the future. To this end, he promised an "authentic socially-just conservatism," an idea which his humble roots boosted enormously. Lower taxes, lower spending, and toughness on crime and immigration were at the heart of his policies, which he began to lay out from early 2007. His opponents slammed this as little more than Thatcherism by another name, but the opinion polls seemed to show Davis was more in tune with the public. Indeed, by mid 2007 many were so convinced by the ideas that the Tories had laid on the table that new Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided not to call an early election, so as to give Labour time to try and sway the electorate back. Big mistake. Brown's popularity went into freefall, almost as much as the global economy did. Davis' strident assaults on the excessive state spending used to prop up the collapsing financial sector struck a chord with the public. But it was the happenings of mid-2008 which really set Davis up in the public eye.

Gordon Brown decided he would attempt to reintroduce the failed legislation on longer detention without trial. When it passed the Commons despite another huge Labour rebellion, Davis resigned as an MP, saying he wanted to take his fight to the country, and therefore triggering a by-election. Despite initial temptations to leave Davis to his stunt, in the end Labour also stood as the possibility to topple the Leader of the Opposition was too great. However, Davis had little to fear; we won over 80% of the vote, Labour crashed to fourth behind the Lib Dems and the Greens, and Davis' authority in the Conservative Party, almost derailed thanks to the by-election, was now stronger than ever. The Tories leapt into a clear opinion poll lead, and remained there until May 2010, when the general election saw them emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament. Brown resigned immediately, and Davis took power at the head of a minority government, promising to slash the fiscal deficit and return Britain to growth.

One of Davis' first announcements as Prime Minister was to close the entire Department for Energy and Climate Change, created in 2008 by Brown. It's functions were merged back into the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, headed by David Cameron, however the snub to Cameron and his favoured cause was clear. This, combined with a freeze in benefits for the entire 2010-2015 Parliament, allowed the new Chancellor, number-savvy Philip Hammond, to proclaim that the deficit was almost eliminated. Davis dealt very well with a series of early crises, such as shootings in Cumbria and Northumberland, handling the apology for Bloody Sunday and identifying a series of quangos which could be abolished. However, he also earned admiration from many on the left by refusing to raise tuition fees for university study in England from £3000 per year; indeed, he promised when the money was available to reduce fees as "people in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue."

Steering a delicate balance on the European stage between cooperation and opposition, and an early intervention in Libya, marked Davis out as a great foreign policy Prime Minister. Meanwhile, reforms in the NHS and the City got going, albeit not without controversy. And economic growth returned, but at a fragile rate. And then came the summer of 2012. With the Olympics and the Jubilee providing an enormous feel good boost, and with Ed Miliband making little headway for Labour, Davis decided to go for broke, and try and seek the majority mandate he so wished for.

With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, buoyed by support from students and those attracted to the promises of benefit reform and a referendum on Britain's EU membership, it is hard to see how Davis can lose. He seems to be well placed to be the first Tory leader in twenty years to win an election outright, and Davisism looks to be the course of the future.

Davis Cabinet, 2010

Prime Minister- David Davis
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Philip Hammond
Foreign Secretary- William Hague
Home Secretary- Theresa May
Justice Secretary- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- Liam Fox
Education Secretary- David Willetts
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Business and Enterprise Secretary- George Osborne
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- David Cameron
Transport Secretary- Eric Pickles
Culture, Media, Sport and the Olympics Secretary- Chris Grayling
International Development Secretary- Mark Field
Scottish Secretary- David Mundell
Welsh Secretary- Cheryl Gillan
Northern Irish Secretary- Owen Paterson
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Justine Greening
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir George Young
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Srathclyde
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office- Andrew Mitchell
Attorney General- Dominic Grieve

What If... Edwina Had Talked?

Poor John Major. To think that once he was tipped as a future Tory leader, possibly even prime minister. First elected to Parliament in 1979, he had risen through the Whips Office and the Social Security Department, until in 1987 he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. In 1989 he became Foreign Secretary, and within months was back at the Treasury as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He seemed to be going places.

But those who tipped him as a leader had reckoned without 'Honest John's' personal life. And it would cost him dear. On his first day at the Treasury, the Sun ran a spectacular headline: 'MAJOR'S FOUR YEAR AFFAIR WITH EGG MINISTER.' The story had been leaked by Edwina Currie, the egg minister in question, still bitter after being sacked as a junior health minister the year before amidst a storm over eggs and salmonella. The pressure on Major was intolerable, and after a week he was forced to throw in the towel and resign. It appeared that his career was over.

Fast forward a year, to November 1990. Mrs Thatcher's grip on power was precarious. Huge public rage over the poll tax was matched by internal turmoil within the Conservative party, with ex-Cabinet minister Michael Heseltine sharpening his claws for the inevitable showdown. The resignation of Sir Geoffrey Howe, the last survivor of Thatcher's 1979 cabinet, precipitated the collapse of Thatcher's premiership. Narrowly missing victory in the first ballot of the leadership contest, she was persuaded by her MPs to stand aside in the interest of party unity. Instead, the second ballot was contested by the Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, who appealed to many of the same Tories as Heseltine did. But Thatcher would rather see Hurd in No. 10 than her arch rival, and her lukewarm backing propelled Hurd into office.

Hurd's premiership got off to a pretty good start. He persuaded Heseltine back into the cabinet, and his new Environment Secretary set about dismantling the hated poll tax in favour of council tax. Chris Patten was promoted to head up the nation's finances as recession loomed. And there was a surprise comeback for John Major, to be in charge of the Department for Education, where he promised a 'back to basics' approach to schooling. Hurd was also lucky in that foreign affairs gave him an early opportunity to appear prime ministerial. The UN invasion of Iraq in 1991 boosted Hurd's standing in the Tory party and in the country at large, and encouraged him to seek an early election in June 1991. However, with the economy still flat-lining and memories of Thatcher still fresh, Hurd was lucky to hold onto his overall majority, which was cut from 102 to a mere 11.

Further troubles lay ahead, as Hurd and his fanatically pro-European Foreign Secretary, Kenneth Clarke, jetted off to Maastricht for the negotiation of a new EEC treaty. Although the pair managed to secure a British opt out from the proposed single currency, their acceptance of the Social Chapter was a gift to the new Labour leader, John Smith, while the Tory right seethed with rage. This unholy alliance wreaked havoc as the Maastricht Treaty was forced through the House of Commons in 1992, and Hurd sacrificed almost all of his political credibility to keep his government afloat in the lobbies, with the suspension of many Tory MPs bringing the government to the brink of collapse.

Then came Black Wednesday. In September 1992 the pound crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and Chris Patten was forced to resign as £14 billion was wiped off the stock market in a single day. He jetted off to Hong Kong as the colony's last British Governor; even worse, the Liberal Democrats won his Bath seat in the ensuing by-election, depriving Hurd of a majority in Parliament. These were dark days indeed. Increasingly seen as out of touch and lacking authority, Hurd was increasingly beleaguered. Nonetheless, he struggled on through 1993, until in 1994 his luck ran out. The government was defeated on Ken Clarke's new budget, and the country was plunged into a snap election. Despite Clarke's nursing of the economy back to health, money had not yet started to flow back into the pockets of voters. Fifteen years of Conservative rule was starting to drag, and under John Smith Labour finally appeared a safe and credible alternative. The drama only increased when, whilst out on the stump, Smith suffered a fatal heart attack. His deputy, Margaret Beckett, was rapidly installed as the new leader, just in time to lead Labour to a thumping 95 seat victory. The Labour leadership election was won by Beckett, using her position as Britain's second woman Prime Minister to dominate John Prescott and Gordon Brown in the campaign.

Under Labour, the country's economic recovery gathered pace, with the new minimum wage and programmes such as Sure Start helping to boost prosperity for all. Meanwhile, peace finally came to Northern Ireland, while Scotland and Wales enjoyed devolved government. Beckett found welcoming allies in both the EU and the Democratic US President Bill Clinton. Compared to life under Labour, the Tory alternative articulated by new compromise leader Michael Howard, who'd beaten Ken Clarke and Peter Lilley after Hurd retired to the Lords, appeared to be a throwback to a different, less appealing era. This doubtless contributed to his landslide defeat by Beckett in 1998. A Conservative government would not return until 2011, when the youthful David Cameron seized power by the skin of his teeth after barely beating Gordon Brown amidst the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Such is the power of political scandal.

P.S. Hurd Cabinet, 1990

Prime Minister- Douglas Hurd
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Chris Patten
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- Ken Baker
Defence Secretary- Tom King
Education and Science Secretary- John Major
Health Secretary- William Waldegrave
Trade and Industry Secretary- Malcolm Rifkind
Social Security Secretary- Peter Lilley
Environment Secretary- Michael Heseltine
Employment Secretary- Norman Lamont
Transport Secretary- Michael Howard
Energy Secretary- John Wakeham
Scottish Secretary- Ian Lang
Welsh Secretary- David Hunt
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Brooke
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Michael Portillo
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Norman Fowler
Leader of the House of Commons- John MacGregor
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Waddington
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- John Gummer

P.P.S. Prime Ministers, 1990-2012

1990-1994- Douglas Hurd (Con)
1994-2000- Margaret Beckett (Lab)
2000-2008- Tony Blair (Lab)
2008-2011- Gordon Brown (Lab)
2011-2012- William Hague (Con)

The Wit and Wisdom of... George McGovern

It is simply untrue that all our institutions are evil,... that all politicians are mere opportunists, that all aspects of university life are corrupt. Having discovered an illness, it's not terribly useful to prescribe death as a cure

George McGovern, who was hammered in the 1972 US election by Richard Nixon, who died over the weekend.

Follow the Link to Find Out More

Just in case my regular readers have missed this fact, I am no longer a history student, despite what the URL says. I am now a history graduate. Again. This is quite nice, as it means the late night Latin stints, the desperate essay writing and the trying-to-work-out-what-some-monk-a-long-time-ago-wrote sessions are all a thing of the past.

Unfortunately, there is another problem. I've got to get a job. Which, it turns out, isn't as easy as the university made it out to be. For some reason, the most severe, two stage economic downturn since the Great Depression has reduced the demand for medievalists. I read in the paper the other day that there are 66 graduates chasing every retail shopfloor job. God only knows how many are chasing graduate level jobs. Experience is now apparently far more valuable than the pieces of paper which gave the skills apparently needed for a job. Experience which I haven't got, having been too busy being educated. 

And then there are the rumours. The rumours that job centres are starting to tell those of us who have more than one degree to quietly leave their MA off their CV, because it'll hurt our chances of getting a job.

Perhaps understandably, I'm more than a little bit cross about this. But it's ok, because I'm not alone. If you're looking for empathy, sympathy, or maybe an excuse to laugh at the overeducated and underprepared, then this might be your cup of tea:

http://medievalists-for-hire.tumblr.com/

Romneyshamble of the Week

Last night saw the beleaguered US President, Barack Obama, come face to face with Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger for the White House, in the second debate. Since the first debate a couple of weeks ago, Mittens has managed to narrow the polls to the point where it is entirely conceivable he might win. Obama needed a solid performance, or a Romneyshambles.

Luckily, he got both. Mittens was recalling his early days as Governor of Massachusetts, and how he was struggling to find female cabinet members:

"And – and so we – we took a concerted effort to go out and find women who had backgrounds that could be qualified to become members of our cabinet. I went to a number of women's groups and said: "Can you help us find folks," and they brought us whole binders full of women."

I seriously worry about the filing policies of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts...

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bill Clinton, Mk II

I'm going to give you this election back, and if you give me this election back I'll never forget who gave me a second chance, I'll never be like George Bush, and I'll be with you till the last dog dies.

Governor Bill Clinton, appealing to Democrats at the New Hampshire Primary, 1992

Moaning Medievalist

I'm not normally one to promote petitions, or even to sign them. But, once in a while, I do get the odd one. Apparently, in all its wisdom, the University of Birmingham has decided to close the Institute of Antiquity and Archaeology, lay off 'some' staff and dismember the departments and spread them throughout the university. What's more, this decision has apparently been taken by the Head of the IAA, in a move most kamikaze pilots would heartily approve of. And the review of the whole affair has been conducted in the best of the New Labour tradition, where the outcome had been determined in advance (Allegedly. Because you can say whatever you like, providing it contains the word allegedly).

I happen to like the early Middle Ages. And don't like rigged consultations. Or the unceasing battering which the Higher Education sector, especially the humanities, is taking at the moment. The petition is below. You know you want to sign it too:

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/save-the-iaa/

Things that were ..things that are...and some things that have not yet come to pass

The thing about being an historian and a political junkie is that you tend to notice dates and anniversaries more than most. Be it battles, births, deaths, or other events, they all stand out. Especially when accompanied by the BBC news feature which reminds people of the daft haircuts and clothes they used to endure. But this week marks another anniversary. If all the hype from the time was to have been believed, this week Parliament would be dissolving, and we would be heading to the polls. Because this week is five years since the speculation that Gordon Brown, recently crowned as Prime Minister by a Labour party largely delighted to see the back of Tony Blair, reached a fever pitch. I would highly recommend this account of those days, before the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression turned everything on it's head:

http://dpmcbride.tumblr.com/post/32931120073/5-years-on-the-election-that-never-was

And, in a shameless personal plug, here are the, on reflection somewhat naive, thoughts of yours truly on the subject from last year:

http://inaneramblingsofahistorystudent.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/what-if-gordon-brown-won-election.html

The Wit and Wisdom of... FDR

For too many of us the political equality we once had won was meaningless in the face of economic inequality. A small group had concentrated into their own hands an almost complete control over other people's property, other people's money, other people's labour — other people's lives. For too many of us life was no longer free; liberty no longer real; men could no longer follow the pursuit of happiness. Against economic tyranny such as this, the American citizen could appeal only to the organized power of government.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, addressing the Democratic National Convention, 1936, the last time a northern Democrat was elected to a second term in the White House.

Romneyshambles of the Day, 25/09

Apparently Mitt Romney was confused as to why you can't open aeroplane windows.

Oh dear...

Alcuin's Description of York

My mind prepares to proclaim the praises of my homeland

And to briefly expound the ancient origins of the famous city of York in fine verse.

Roman power first founded this great city with its walls and towers

Summoning as partners and companions in the labour only the native British peoples.

For at that time fertile Britain endured Romans as kings.

They deservedly used to hold sway over the world

So that York would be an emporium for trade by land and sea alike,

At once a sure stronghold of the kingdom for its rulers,

A glory of their rule and a terror to hostile weapons:

Safe for ocean ships coming from the farthest ports,

To there the sea-weary sailor hastens, now makes fast the prow with its long tow-rope.

The Ouse, filled with fish, flows through York with its waters,

Its banks stretching past flowery fields on both sides.

And hills and forests beautify the earth

And make a lovely dwelling-place, whose health

And richness soon will fill it full of men.

The best of realms and people round came there

In hope of gain, to seek in that rich earth

For riches, there to make both home and gain.

Alcuin of York (c. 735-804)

A Little Help From My Friends

Because this year hasn't taken enough of a toll, so let's start plotting for my next move!

In all seriousness, please read the page below (or above), any help would be greatly greatly appreciated

http://inaneramblingsofahistorystudent.blogspot.co.uk/p/history-myth-legend-and-other-such.html

The Wit and Wisdom of... Jimmy Carter

The Republican Party is a party with a narrow vision, a party that is afraid of the future

Jimmy Carter, on the campaign trail, July 1980

Daily Fail Watch

It isn't very often the Daily Mail and medieval history come together. Having read their article on the potential discovery of the body of King Richard III, I can see why...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2202352/Richard-III-Yes-killed-princes-Tower-ENGLISH-king-decent-burial.html

I can only think of one response to the horrific mistakes in this article, the stupidity of the claims...

The Wit and Wisdom of... George Bush Snr.

He, Governor Clinton, thinks, well what he said was he thinks the country is 'coming apart at the seams.' Now, I know that the only way he can win is to make everybody think that the economy is worse than it seems, but this country isn't coming apart at the seams, for heavens sakes. We're the United States of America. In spite of the economic problems we are the most respected economy around the world. Many would trade for it; we've been caught up in a global slowdown. We can do much, much better. We ought not to convince the American people that America is a country which is coming apart at the seams. I would hate to be running for President, and think that the only way I could win would be to convince everyone of how horrible things have been.

President of the United States George H.W. Bush, during the first Presidential election debate with Governor Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1992, an election which Bush subsequently lost.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Tony Blair, Mk. II

As I said in 1994, courage is our friend. Caution, our enemy. A governing Party has confidence, self-belief. It sees the tough decision and thinks it should be taking it. Reaches for responsibility first. Serves by leading. The most common phrase uttered to me - and not at rallies or public events but in meetings of chance, quietly, is not "I hate you" or "I like you" but "I would not have your job for all the world". The British people will, sometimes, forgive a wrong decision. They won't forgive not deciding. They know the choices are hard. They know there isn't some fantasy Government where nothing difficult ever happens.

They've got the Lib Dems for that.

Tony Blair, final speech to the Labour Party Conference, September 2006

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bill Clinton

Yesterday is yesterday. If we try to recapture it, we will only lose tomorrow

US President Bill Clinton, State of the Union Address 1999

Can Anyone Else See the Link?

I quote from a Guardian article about the imminent Cabinet reshuffle:

"Clegg wants [David] Laws to play an important role in advising on early intervention for toddlers and on the economy."

What possible link is there between those two?! Are toddlers going to be running the economy (which to be fair, would be a step up for the Treasury team...)? Is to ensure very long term growth?!

*Mumbles into incoherence about policy, Cameron and such*

The Wit and Wisdom of... Neil Armstrong

I think we're going to the moon because it's in the nature of the human being to face challenges. It's by the nature of his deep inner soul ... we're required to do these things just as salmon swim upstream.

Neil Armstrong, at pre-flight press conference for Apollo 11, 1969, who passed away today.

Best Head of State Ever?

Here is an interview of an Irish MP by Michael Graham, a US radio show host who makes you glad of the inane dullness of BBC local radio. I say interview, it's a bit one sided for that...

http://www.upworthy.com/a-tea-partier-decided-to-pick-a-fight-with-a-foreign-president-it-didnt-go-so-we?g=4

A year and a half later, the MP in question was elected President of Ireland, with over 50% of the final vote. Why can't we all have national leaders like this?!

What If... Britain Said 'No' to Europe?

The 1975 EEC referendum must rank as one of the most significant events of modern British history. It made the two great political clashes of the late twentieth century virtually inevitable, leading directly to Bennism and it's antithesis Thatcherism.

When Labour's Harold Wilson was re-elected in October 1974 by a hair's breadth, he had done so on the basis of a promise to renegotiate Britain's position in the EEC and offer any new terms to the British people in a referendum. This was the brainchild of Tony Benn, the maverick left-winger and socialist bogeyman of the Tory press. At first Wilson was not unduly worried. While the Cabinet was split on the issue, the Yes campaign was better funded and supported.

However, while the No campaign had fewer public backers, one of them was Enoch Powell, still amongst the most popular politicians in the UK, while Tony Benn electrified the Labour grassroots on the subject. The Yes campaign also suffered from the presence of so many cabinet ministers; the voters began to see the referendum was an opportunity to give Wilson a good kicking. Still, the end result was very close; Britain opted to leave the EEC by a margin of 0.8%. In Brussels, the barely arrived British delegation packed their bags and left. They had been there for 18 months.

With the public's verdict delivered, Harold Wilson had little choice but to reward the man who was the public face of the No campaign. The week after the results came in, Enoch Powell was knighted and  Tony Benn was summoned to Number 10 and promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer. Denis Healey, smarting at his undignified exit, left the government altogether.

Newly installed at the Treasury, Benn began a huge expansion of public spending, pumping money into his pet project the National Enterprise Board. Not even the pleas of his deputy Joel Barnett and his successor at Industry Edmund Dell could persuade him to stop on what many saw as a reckless and dangerous experiment. With the economy stalling and inflation running high, this was make or break time.

And then in March 1976 Wilson resigned. The Labour party was immediately plunged into a leadership contest, with James Callaghan, Roy Jenkins, Tony Crosland and Denis Healey all throwing themselves into the fight. But after his successful year, the Chancellor had the momentum behind him, and several successive ballots later, Benn narrowly beat Callaghan in the last ballot, thus making him Labour leader. Rather awkwardly, for a dedicated republican, he was also Prime Minister. Benn used the weekend to radically restructure the Cabinet, and while jobs were offered to many on the right, they turned them down for fear of what was to come. Some jumped early; Benn's majority vanished instantly as Roy Jenkins defected to the Liberals.

They were right to be fearful. Almost instantly, the markets reacted with near hysteria, plunging sterling into a deep crisis. Benn's response, in full agreement with his Chancellor Peter Shore, was to implement a 'siege economy,' ending much of Britain's foreign trade to try and promote domestic producers and ending sterling's role as an international reserve currency. The proceeds from North Sea oil were taxed at 95%, while Shore also radically re-drew income tax brackets, with a top rate of 90% and 99% on unearned earnings; for the lowest paid, there was total relief from tax. VAT was abolished and the gap met by increasing Corporation Tax and imposing a tax on international banks in the UK. The result was a total loss of confidence from outside investors. Benn was urged to apply to the IMF for a rescue package, but he wasn't having any of it, pointing to the example of Ramsay MacDonald. The Labour right were appalled. Gerald Kaufman described the new 'Plan for Britain's Future' as 'the longest suicide note in history' and dissent focused around the so-called 'Gang of Four': Kaufman, Healey, and ex-ministers David Owen and Shirley Williams.

The 1976 Labour conference was toxic. The hard left was in a celebratory mood, finally having what it saw as a proper socialist government, whilst the right was terrified by the consequences of Benn's policies. When Benn himself took to the platform and promised a 'fundamental shift of power from the top to the workers,' a young member from London cried 'Liar!' The hall erupted in pandemonium. The next day, the 'Gang of Four' announced they were quitting the party to form a new Social Democratic Party, taking many right wingers and trade unions with them. The great labour movement was rent asunder.

Although remaining in power, Benn's hands were tied by the fact he was leading a minority government. This meant his grand ideas of nationalising the banking sector and abolishing the House of Lords. His plan to solve the crisis in Northern Ireland also floundered; while Dublin was delighted that Benn was willing to give them the Province back, and the IRA declared a ceasefire, this was countered by the sky-rocketing of loyalist atrocities, including the infamous attempt to murder Benn at the 1978 Labour conference.

Nonetheless, a great increase in trade union power was implemented, whilst many major companies were taken into public ownership, workers placed on the boards of the remaining private sector companies and the level of state benefits were increased greatly. This did manage to drastically reduce unemployment, but at the expense of hyperinflation and economic stagnation. And even then, Benn was unable to prevent the Winter of Discontent in 1978-79, with the Three Day Week being brought back in to conserve power. Many voters reckoned if this was socialism, they'd rather have a quiet life.

And so it was that 1979 saw Margaret Thatcher propelled into Downing Street by a landslide. Labour's vote plunged to 28% and the SDP saw a huge increase in the number of MPs it returned. Thatcher immediately slashed taxes and began to cut the size of the public sector, using the money from North Sea oil to help repair the ravages of Bennism. Under her and her successor, Norman Tebbit, the UK slowly moved into line with other Western countries, and the great seventies crisis receded from memory.

Labour were never to hold elected office again; after the 1992 election it merged into the SDP, which finally ended 18 years of Tory rule in 1997 by a landslide. One of the first jobs of the new SDP government was to reapply to join the EU; who better to do it than the delegate who had denounced Benn at the 1976 conference, new Prime Minister Tony Blair?

Photo of the Day, 11/08/12

In response to Mitt Romney's Vice-Presidential candidate:

In fact, 'In response to Mitt Romney' would have worked just as well...

Best Spam Ever

Everyone knows about spam emails. The ones saying if you hand over your bank details, you will inherit the fortune of an African kingdom, or get a larger penis, or possibly both (the exact connection between the two never being overly clear). However, this possibly beats all hands down:

'Hello,

I am Gen Ann DunWoody , an officer of the U.S Army. Based on the United States legislative and executive decision to pull our troop out of here in Afghanistan .I have decided to contact you for this business opportunity and relationship.

please Honestly I need your sincere and truthful friendship and I really wish to have you as my good friend and as Family Friend and also wishes to entrust some funds into your care, I have (2.521million) US dollars Cash, which I successfully moved out of the country here in Iraq through diplomatic dispatch , Now I need a good partner someone I can trust. To receive this fund on my behalf,

the money is oil business we did with some Iraqi citizens worth of (28million US dollars, the $2.521million) stated is my share part of the business and its legal , l move the fund out of Iraq as a family treasure. The diplomatic dispatch will send it to your house directly , am waiting your reply for me to give you the contact of the diplomat for direction on how to come to you with the money/cash well package, The most important thing is if we can build up trust on each other?

i need your urgent reply to my private email address genannwoody@gmail.com , so that i can furnish you with details for this transaction..

Sincerly
Gen Ann Dunwoody'
I'm not really sure if anything can beat that...

P.S. Credit to Chris Bowman for drawing this to my attention!

What If... President McCain?

With the attention of the world focused on London this month for the Olympics, the arrival of the US presidential hopeful from the Republican Party shouldn't have merited too much attention. Of course, everyone had reckoned without his infamous ability to put his foot in it. The former state governor managed to insult our preparations, 'look down the backside of Number 10' (not a good image), gain the ire of both David Cameron and Boris Johnson, and to cap it all forgot Ed Miliband's name during an interview with him (although in fairness, that's hardly uncommon over here too...). To the embattled President Obama, these events are gold dust in the fight he has to remain in the White House come November. But it still won't be easy. The last Democrat incumbent of the White House, Bill Clinton, found it impossible to pass on the presidency to his Vice-President Al Gore, and Obama has stirred far more than emotions than Gore ever managed.

Given how the tumultuous events of the last twelve years have unfolded, 2000 seems like a very different world. A popular and flamboyant Mayor of London was settling into his job, fuel protests caused panic-buying of petrol, the English football team did terribly in the Euros, Tony Blair saw a dent in his popularity, while the attention of the country was totally focused on a building site in East London. Ok, but apart from that...

However, the big event of the year was to happen in the US. The presidential election was widely predicted to be a race between Vice-President Al Gore and Republican grandee George Bush Jnr, whose dad had been President from 1989-1993. Bush was popular amongst conservative Republicans, but his message could appeal to some swing voters. However, the younger Bush was not to be given an easy ride. He was challenged in the Republican primaries by the maverick Senator, John McCain. McCain was no ordinary Republican. A former US Navy pilot and prisoner of war in Vietnam, John McCain showed an uncanny ability to reach out to voters beyond the Republican's core vote. This slowly began to win him support amongst the Republican Party, and after his spectacular victory in the South Carolina primary, Bush knew that the game was up. Bush quit the race in March and returned to Texas. The road was open for a McCain presidency. However, to keep the Bush supporters onside, McCain still consulted with Bush and accepted his recommendation of Dick Cheney for Vice-President. Over the long summer, McCain's Straight Talking Express toured the USA, denouncing Gore and promoting his own platform.

But when the general election came in November, not even the most informed pundits could guess how close the result would be. The two candidates appeared to be neck and neck, until, in the small hours of Wednesday morning, the state of Florida was declared to have narrowly gone for McCain. But it had been close nationally too, with McCain leading Gore by a mere half a percent in the popular vote. Luckily, the electoral vote margin was much larger, and this is what counted, despite the whisperings from the Bush family that George could have done better. So come January 2001, it was John McCain who was sworn in as the 43rd President of the United States of America.

What McCain's presidency would have looked like without the tragic events of September 11th we will never know. His response was judged to be excellent; within hours he was touring Ground Zero, vowing help for those afflicted and revenge on those who had attacked America. The subsequent war in Afghanistan may have failed to capture Osama Bin Laden, but it did deprive the Taliban of a valuable operations base, and also provided President McCain the opportunity to demonstrate his new foreign policy strategy of 'rogue state roll-back,' whereby the US and its NATO allies trained and equipped forces within enemy states in order to help bring them down. The end result was that by 2003 NATO forces felt confident enough to withdraw from Afghanistan, leaving a well trained Afghan National Army behind.

This quick and decisive act may have been what persuaded McCain to go for the US' major regional nemesis, the Iraq of Saddam Hussein. In 2003, 'rogue state roll-back' was used to 'shock and awe' the Iraqi people, as armed groups inside Iraq rose up against Saddam, coupled with an invasion in their support by US and UK forces. Unfortunately, the bloodbath which followed thanks to the influx of weapons had not been predicted, and remained a running sore throughout McCain's time in office.

But it is easy for us here in Britain to only see US Presidents through their foreign policy actions. At home, McCain was a key player in steering the US economy through the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001, while he enacted several major pieces of domestic legislation. He was also able to begin the injection of private cash into the US Medicare system, while the USA PATRIOT Act was passed to ensure greater safety after the trauma of 9/11. The creation of a new Department of Homeland Security was widely praised, as was the masterstroke of persuading Democrat Joe Lieberman to head it. It was the organisation which pioneered the response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, another scenario widely praised for being well handled.

With such a strong personality, voters saw no reason to back John Kerry in 2004 so McCain was re-elected by a landslide. This strong mandate allowed McCain to press ahead with more controversial legislation. His Immigration Bill of 2005, which would grant US citizenship to millions of illegal immigrants to provide a fresh start for the system, was torn apart by Republicans and Democrats alike. It is widely considered to have contributed to the sweeping gains the Democrats made in the 2006 mid-terms. Besides, McCain was getting older, and the country was starting to tire of him. Meanwhile, on the foreign policy front Iraq-induced apathy and questions about the torture of suspects were starting to dog the administration. In it's dying days, the McCain administration also had to try and deal with the near collapse of the international financial system, caused in part by lax-regulation in the McCain years.

By November 2008, the public's weariness with the Republicans helped propel charismatic Democrat Barack Obama into the White House, easily seeing off the gaffe-ridden ticket of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. However, dealing with the hangover of the McCain years has caused much of the initial optimism around Obama to wear off, and the lurch to the right by the Republican party has seemingly given it a new lease of life. However, whether that is enough to take them back to power and finally give George W. Bush his chance in the White House still remains unanswered.

Photo of the Day

Ed: 'Look, the road to electoral oblivion'

Alternative (ie better) captions are much welcomed...

What If... Michael Portillo led the Tories?

As Westminster breaks for the summer recess, the government can finally breathe a sigh of relief. It has been a dramatic few weeks for them, following the political turmoil which has surrounded the last few months. But attention is finally moving away from the coalition and onto the bitter leadership crisis amongst the Opposition.

But we've been here before. We go back to the summer of 2001. For the second time, Tony Blair's New Labour has won an earth-shattering landslide, with the Tory leader William Hague barely denting Labour's majority. Hague resigned, and the race was on to find a replacement.

The final three candidates were veteran bruiser Kenneth Clarke, former Maastricht rebel Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Portillo, who in the 1990s had been an ardent Thatcherite but had now flipped to a position of social liberalism. Portillo had been widely expected to become leader in 1997, but his infamous ousting from Enfield Southgate on election night had put paid to that idea. But now his time was upon him. By a single vote, he secured his place in the final round against Ken Clarke. The long summer campaign saw Clarke and Portillo battle it out up and down the country, pitching to Conservative party members. In the end, the result surprised many. The party faithful had opted for Portillo despite his unforgiving message of modernisation. Clarke, clearly devastated at being pipped to the post again, retired to the backbenches.

Portillo had already hinted at his modernisation agenda as Shadow Chancellor, when he had committed the Conservatives to the National Minimum Wage and to recognising the independence of the Bank of England. But now, as leader, Portillo grasped this theme. He began to espouse a theme he called compassionate Conservatism, calling not for reduced state spending but for it to be better targeted and moved away from Whitehall. On the economy, he called for "corporate social responsibility." At the time, this was merely a catchphrase, but would have huge implications later on. Admittedly, much of this sounded very like what Tony Blair said, and the reaction amongst the Tory press, not to mention party grandees such as Norman Tebitt, was little short of hysterical. Portillo was hounded by the press, the Daily Mail in particular going for his homosexual past.

And yet, the public began to come round to Portillo. He was helped enormously in 2002, when he used the summer recess to live undercover for a TV show standing in as a single parent for a week. The press and Labour dismissed this as a mere gimmick. Viewers were more impressed. Back in the world of politics, Portillo committed the Tories to supporting much of Blair's public service reform agenda, but with qualifications. This had the bonus effect of causing serious tensions between Blair and his arch-rival, Gordon Brown. His other great coup was to persuade Michael Howard and Ken Clarke out of their self-imposed exiles on the backbenches, helping to soothe fears amongst veterans over his attempts to broaden the image of the party. But whether Portillo would have won in 2005 without Iraq is another question.

The Conservatives were initially enthusiastic backers of the war, at least officially. After all, Blair had tried to get a UN resolution, and had credible evidence. But when neither international support nor the infamous Weapons of Mass Destruction were forthcoming, the position changed. Portillo was keen to stress his personal support for the armed forces; he was, after all, a former Defence Secretary. But as Iraq descended into anarchy, it was all too easy to blame Blair for misleading the public and failing to prepare for the aftermath. The Blair government was looking increasingly cornered.

Combined with a socially liberal, centre-ground manifesto, this sense of chaos helped push Blair out of No 10 in May 2005, with the Conservatives making huge ground from their 2001 drubbing but still only having a majority of two. Portillo's opponents were silenced by the sheer amount of ground he had recovered, and early on he handled the G8 summit and 2005 London terror attacks superbly. But it was clear that this government would not last the full term, so in May 2007 Portillo called a snap election and increased his majority to a safe 62. Labour had ousted Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had moved in to claim his crown, but when pitched against such a formidable campaigner as Portillo he didn't stand a chance.

Armed with this huge mandate, Portillo got stuck in to the reform and reorientation of Britain's public services, with Tim Collins and Andrew Lansley offering huge new freedoms to schools and hospitals. At the Home Office, arch-libertarian David Davis set about tearing up Labour's restriction of civil liberties legislation in alliance with Ken Clarke, the new Justice Secretary. The disquiet of grandees over what they saw as pointless tinkering was kept at bay by Portillo's haggling over the Lisbon Treaty. Portillo was also helped by the collapse of Gordon Brown's authority on the Labour benches, as David Miliband launched a protracted campaign to oust him.

But then came the financial crash, which arguably cut short Portillo's premiership. Some of his response was textbook, his recapitalisation scheme showing he was no economic lightweight. He also reinforced his political authority within the Conservative Party by sacking long time ally Francis Maude, who exacerbated the run on Northern Rock by suggesting that customers kept their money under their pillows rather than investing it. The idea of 'responsible capitalism' he had been promoting since he became leader struck a chord with the public, while Gordon Brown's association with the old system finished off his political career for good. Portillo's Euroscepticism also enabled him to criticise the Eurozone's troubles, helping to stem the rise of UKIP.

Unfortunately, having spent billions in propping up the banking sector, Portillo and his new Chancellor, Philip Hammond, then went and squandered the public support by starting to make drastic cuts to public spending in order to balance the books. While the Tory faithful were delighted, floating voters were less than impressed. In 2012 the UK economy plunged back into recession, while the government was also battered by scandals involving the closeness of David Cameron and George Osborne to News International, while Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms finally began to unravel. Hammond's last budget, in 2012, was widely considered a disaster, and at the May election Labour emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament, having promised to ease the pace of cuts and focus more on tax rises and boosting growth. Portillo was forced to resign and watch a Lab-Lib pact take power. But attention is now starting to shift away from the novelty of the coalition, and onto the Tory leadership race; will William Hague get his chance to shine again, or will David Davis' reputation for reversing Labour's measures be enough to hand him victory?

P.S. Portillo Cabinet, 2005

Prime Minister- Michael Portillo
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Francis Maude
Foreign Secretary- Michael Howard
Home Secretary- David Davis
Justice Secretary- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- William Hague
Education and Skills Secretary- Tim Collins
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Trade and Industry Secretary- Philip Hammond
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Transport Secretary- Sir George Young
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Yeo
Local Government Secretary- Caroline Spelman
Families and Equalities Secretary- Eleanor Laing
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- David Cameron
International Development Secretary- John Bercow
Scottish Secretary- David Mundell
Welsh Secretary- Liam Fox
Northern Irish Secretary- Eric Pickles
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- George Osborne
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Strathclyde
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Oliver Letwin

P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2012

Prime Minister- David Miliband (Labour)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council- Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Liberal Democrat)
Foreign Secretary- Hilary Benn (Labour)
Home Secretary and First Secretary of State- Yvette Cooper (Labour)
Justice Secretary- Alan Johnson (Labour)
Defence Secretary- Jim Murphy (Labour)
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham (Labour)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat)
Welfare Secretary- Liam Byrne (Labour)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Labour)
Transport Secretary- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Harriet Harman (Labour)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Ed Miliband (Labour)
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander (Labour)
Culture, Media, Sports and the Olympics Secretary- Tom Watson (Labour)
Scottish Secretary- Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Labour)
Northern Irish Secretary- Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Rachel Reeves (Labour)
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Alan Beith (Liberal Democrat)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall (Liberal Democrat)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Jon Cruddas (Labour)
Minister without Portfolio- Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat)

What If... Hugh Gaitskell Had Lived A Bit Longer?

Whilst on holiday in Scotland I saw a story suggesting that the late Yasser Arafat was in fact killed by poisoning. While an interesting story in itself, it didn't help the Scottish Metro that they cited Hugh Gaitskell's death as an example of assassination by poison. The Labour leader's death in 1964 at the hands of a rare autoimmune disease has generated a whole series of conspiracy theories, but the fact remains that it was merely a random tragic event.

And it had come to within an inch of being so different. In 1963 Gaitskell had been riding high, his grip on the Labour party apparently secure after seeing off leadership challenges in 1960 and 1961. Discord in the party had died away, as Gaitskell opened up a huge poll lead over the Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and looked set to sweep into No 10 and end over a decade of Tory rule. But then, disaster struck. In October 1963 Macmillan stunned the country by standing down, and was replaced by Earl Home, soon to be Sir Alec Douglas-Home. At first it seemed as if things could only get better for Labour. Gaitskell mocked this 'Fourteenth Earl' and his apparent inability to understand economics, but this confident approach masked the recovery of the Conservative's standing. When the election finally came in Occtober 1964, the two parties were neck and neck. In the end, Douglas-Home just squeezed to victory with a majority of six, with a Liberal resurgence depriving Gaitskell of victory. Devastated at this second personal defeat, Gaitskell's health gave in, and he died in December 1964.

Despite his wafer-thin majority, Douglas-Home's administration did get off to a good start. The endorsement of the electorate allowed Douglas-Home to bring Tory heavyweights Enoch Powell and Iain Macleod back into the Cabinet. Under Macleod, the process of decolonisation continued, with much of the old British Empire converted into the Commonwealth of Nations, although the thorny issue of Rhodesia blighted Macleod's record. Meanwhile, Powell's 'New Defence Policy' called for the end of Britain's commitment East of Suez in favour of strengthening NATO. Powell also sided with the army commanders in resisting US pressure to commit to the deteriorating war in Vietnam, a move for which we can all be grateful.  Douglas-Home's biggest achievement, however, was his 1966 negotiation of Britain's entry into the 'Common Market', a feat he managed despite the presence of sceptics (notably Powell) in the Cabinet.

For Labour, the defeat was devastating, turning thirteen years of Tory rule into the prospect of almost two decades. Gaitskell's natural successor was George Brown, but Brown overstepped the mark by resurrecting Gaitskell's idea of abolishing Clause IV of the party constitution, enraging the left of the party. Combined with the open secret of his drinking habit, the wisecracking Harold Wilson was able to secure victory, where he soon proved his worth by wreaking havoc at Prime Minister's Questions. Combining an economists attention to detail with a devastating wit, Wilson proved an immediate hit with the public, offering a 'new' Labour party which would use economic planning and scientific advancement to drag Britain into the modern era.

For Douglas-Home, the situation appeared to be sliding into chaos. Reginald Maudling's stint as Chancellor of the Exchequer prior to 1964 had led to a serious balance of payment's crisis, which new Chancellor Edward Heath struggled to bring under control. The refusal of Powell and Macleod to back British involvement in Vietnam meant that the US placed the pound under intolerable pressure, and by 1967 the inevitable came in the form of devaluation. Heath resigned immediately, and his replacement as Chancellor, Enoch Powell, immediately instigated a dose of deflation which helped to bring the economy back under control. However, Douglas-Home's other big idea, to start to turn the nationalised industries into cooperatives, floundered when the trades unions refused to work with his Minister for Labour, Margaret Thatcher. 1968 saw a wave of industrial unrest, as Thatcher's plans to curb trade union power met with fierce opposition from millions of workers.

As the 1969 election loomed, the economy was starting to look on the up, but otherwise the government had precious little to show for its extra five years in office. Dissent was rife on the backbenches, stirred up by the inconsolable Edward Heath, the EEC was a hard policy to sell to the public, industrial strife blighted the public sector and Ian Smith of Rhodesia had made a mockery of the government's attempts at decolonisation. For many voters, it seemed to be the time for a change. It was no surprise when Labour stormed to victory with a massive 134 seat majority.

Wilson's 'new Labour government' lost no time in making its mark. On his first day as Home Secretary, Roy Jenkins caused a huge stir by suspending the execution of prisoners. Soon after were reforms to legalise homosexuality and abortion, end theatre censorship and ease divorce, measures which shocked many but showed the differences with Douglas-Home's moribund administration. In education, Richard Crossman began the process of ending the tripartite system and replacing it with comprehensive education, while Barbara Castle proved the darling of the left with the extra money poured into the NHS and welfare state. Labour were also able to reap the advantages of Powell's deflationary measures, combining it with a period of industrial intervention spearheaded by Tony Crosland, Peter Shore and Anthony Wedgwood Benn. When the early 1970s economic crisis broke upon us, the British economy was well placed to weather the storm, and the mixed economy and the high spending interventionist state have been with us ever since.

For the Tories, their 1969 defeat marked the start of a long, dark tunnel for them. Sir Alec Douglas-Home resigned as leader, and in the bitter battle to succeed him Reginald Maudling, Edward Heath and Enoch Powell slugged it out. Powell emerged as the narrow victor, and from there things began to go wrong. Powell's proposals to denationalise vast swathes of the public sector were deeply unpopular. Although a parliamentary debater of unparalleled success, Powell shocked the establishment by advocating the repatriation of Ugandan Asian refugees in 1972, in what became known as his 'Rivers of Blood' speech. While many people agreed with him on this, the damage it did to the internal balance of the Conservative party not only handed Wilson the 1973 election on a plate, it caused the party to fracture between Powellites and Heathites. Not until the Heathite Peter Walker was able to narrowly oust Denis Healey from No 10 in the depth of the early eighties recession would the Conservative party return to office, but not before it had accepted much of Labour's policy agenda. Those eighteen years in office from 1951 to 1969 may have done it more harm than good.

P.S. Douglas-Home Cabinet, 1964

Prime Minister- Sir Alec Douglas-Home
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Edward Heath
Foreign Secretary- R.A. Butler
Home Secretary- Reginald Maudling
Defence Secretary- Enoch Powell
Education and Science Secretary- Quintin Hogg
Health Secretary- Anthony Barber
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Boyd-Carpenter
Colonies and Commonwealth Secretary- Iain Macleod
Scottish Secretary- Michael Noble
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Sir Keith Joseph
Minister of Transport- Ernest Marples
Minister of Power- Selwyn Lloyd
Minister for Housing and Local Government- Frederick Erroll
Minister for Labour- Margaret Thatcher
Minister for Public Works- Edward du Cann
Minister for Agriculture- Christopher Soames
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Geoffrey Rippon
Leader of the House of Commons- Peter Thorneycroft
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Carrington

P.P.S. Wilson Cabinet, 1969

Prime Minister- Harold Wilson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Michael Stewart
Foreign Secretary- Denis Healey
Home Secretary- Roy Jenkins
Defence Secretary- James Callaghan
Education and Science Secretary- Richard Crossman
Health and Social Security Secretary- Barbara Castle
Trade and Industry Secretary- Tony Crosland
Employment Secretary- Richard Marsh
Economic Affairs Secretary- Peter Shore
Environment Secretary- Douglas Jay
Scottish Secretary- William Ross
Welsh Secretary- Cledwyn Hughes
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Dick Taverne
Minister of Transport- Bill Rodgers
Minister for Technology- Anthony Wedgwood Benn
Minister for Agriculture- Fred Peart
Minister for Overseas Development- Judith Hart
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Shirley Williams
Leader of the House of Commons- George Brown
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Shackelton

P.P.P.S. Prime Ministers, 1963-2012

1963-1969- Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Con)
1969-1976- Harold Wilson (Lab)
1976-1977- Tony Crosland (Lab)
1977-1981- Denis Healey (Lab)
1981-1991- Peter Walker (Con)
1991-1993- Douglas Hurd (Con)
1993-2001- Bryan Gould (Lab)
2001-2005- Tony Blair (Lab)
2005-2010- Michael Portillo (Con)
2010-2012- Alan Johnson (Lab)

Apparently Network Rail Must Be an Avid Reader...

Regular visitors to this blog will be no strangers to my opinions on the state of Britain's railways. I spend slightly too much of my life either hanging round stations, legging it across stations, sitting dejectedly on a delayed train, sitting dejectedly on the floor of a delayed train, before then returning to hanging around at the station again. And most of this is just getting in or out of Euston. And if you have to deal with an issue where you travelled with more than one train company, you might as well give up. It took several months for the then-Silverlink to decide to refund a ticket I'd bought on the Virgin website, having never made the Virgin train due to the need to stop the Silverlink one and attach a large piece of wood to the window thanks to the brick-shaped hole in it...

But then again, that was Silverlink...

Anyway, it was therefore with great joy and excitement that I saw this today:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/30/labour-railway-network-state-control?fb_action_ids=10151870716330371&fb_action_types=news.reads&fb_source=other_multiline

Now, I'm old enough to remember travelling on British Rail trains, although I was too young to know all the jokes about curly sandwiches. But it can hardly be any worse than it is today (see virtually all previous blog posts!). And the *stupid* privatisation system devised by Mr Major costs the taxpayer far, far more money than the BR block-grant ever did. Plus we can all return to being passengers rather than customers. Not to mention the national version of the Oyster Card which could be brought in, whereas at the moment this sort of a setup would see the train companies implode as they tried to divide it up amongst themselves, the maintenance people, the station owners and the people who own the weeds covering the disused tracks.

I know it's only an idea, and yes it is sort of dependent upon Ed Miliband winning the next election (see earlier post for my views on that) and on him actually doing something... but hey, a man can dream, can't he?!

Some Food for Thought From The Politics of New-Townville

Last week, there was a council by-election in my home town. Hardly the stuff of excitement, county and borough council by-elections, even when accompanied by the councillors' arrest on child pornography charges. However, being a dedicated political geek, I lugged myself to the polling station in pretty miserable weather and cast my vote. The woman from the Electoral Commission looked shocked; I reckon my brother and I were the first people she'd seen in a while!

Anyway, meandering story aside, the results are now out, and as such provide the potential for a fascinating insight into the state of the parties in a south-eastern 'marginal' of the type everyone keeps banging on about with regards to opinion polling and election winning. (My beloved New Town was solid blue 1979-1997, buried beneath the Labour landslides of 1997 and 2001, narrowly went back to the Tories in 2005 before swinging heavily to Cameron in 2010, although I suspect the popularity of the local MP, doubled with the closure of the entire general hospital helped a lot last time). Also interesting is the difference between the two seats; the borough council was last elected in May 2011, whereas the County was up for grabs in 2009; in between, the politically unthinkable has happened in the form of the 2010 election and the coalition.

So, anyway, enough waffle, here are the figures:

Borough Council Seat (27.24% turnout)

Conservative- 566 (49%, -17.5%)
Labour- 406 (35%, +10.6%)
Liberal Democrats- 70 (6%, -3.1%)
English Democrats- 47 (4%, +4%)
UKIP- 43 (4%, +4%)
Greens- 24 (2%, +2%)

And the County Council Seat (23.82% turnout):

Conservative- 1413 (48%, -2.4%)
Labour- 693 (28%, +13.4%)
Liberal Democrats- 456 (15%, -6%)
Green- 180 (6%, -7.1%)
UKIP- 151 (5%, +5%)
Independent- 61 (2%, +2%)

Now, despite all the flaws of local elections, local issues, time till the next general election and dismal turnout, I still reckon there's something to be read in these figures. For those of you still awake, I've drawn the following conclusions:

1. Despite their apparent national unpopularity, the Conservatives are staying in a strong first place. Yes, the Borough seat does show a 17.5% drop in their support, but this is to a mere 49% of the vote...

2. Labour appears to have recovered its position as the leader challenger to the Tories. However, most of this seems to have come from hoovering up votes from the Lib Dems and other minor parties, whereas they don't really seem to have made much of an inroad into the Tory vote.

3. Poor Nick Clegg. Even by splitting the difference between these two sets of results, the Lib Dems come in with only around 10% of the vote. And I reckon, short of some unforeseen event of stupendous proportions (Lembit Opik's asteroid, perhaps?) then this is how their poll ratings will stay.

4. There has been a rise in minor party voting, but only because more candidates from these groups are standing. They won't win seats, but they'll siphon off the Lib Dem's former protest voters.

So what I've maintained since about September 2010 appears to be broadly true. Labour did terribly at the 2010 election in terms of share of the vote, and in many areas it has to take to win outright (ie, the South) it has sunk into third place. In 2015, Labour's greatest achievement could be getting back into second place across vast swathes of the country. Meanwhile, many voters will figure 'better the devil you know' and put the Tories back in Number 10. This 'realignment of the opposition' may lead to the resurrection of two-party politics in Britain in the long run, but it could leave us lumbered with David Cameron until 2020. Now there's a sobering thought...

I do hope I'm wrong...

(Disclaimer: For the pedants who actually added my figures, they're based on rounding, so may not come to 100% at the end...)