In my opinion, any man who can afford to buy a newspaper should not be allowed to own one.
Roy Hattersley, recorded in 1988.
Thursday 24 May 2012
Friday 11 May 2012
What If... Thatcher Fought On?
"It's a funny old world," Mrs Thatcher told her Cabinet on the evening of 21st November 1990. The day before, by a mere two votes, she had failed to achieve the necessary margin of victory over her leadership challenger and arch-rival, Michael Heseltine. Now the contest was to go through to a second round, and Thatcher had summoned the Cabinet to seek their support and advice. Her initial plan had been to see her ministers one by one, but at the last minute her adviser, Peter Morrison, warned that they were beginning to waver. Therefore Thatcher decided to see them together, to put on a show of strength. And in the short term, it worked brilliantly. Almost all of the Cabinet said they would back her, their private doubts silenced by the presence of this most formidable leader. Only the Education and Scottish Secretaries, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind, dared to voice their doubts over the viability of her future. When Thatcher's nomination paper arrived at Conservative Central Office the next morning, it was followed shortly by Clarke and Rifkind's resignations.
As the Cabinet was disintegrating, Heseltine was furiously courting backbenchers, telling them if this was allowed to carry on, the result would be a Labour government. Thatcher's increasingly abrasive style, the public relations disaster of the Poll Tax and, most worryingly for a backbencher, the fear of electoral meltdown made them listen. For the second ballot, only a simple majority was needed. In the end, it went to Heseltine by a whisker, his 177 votes beating Thatcher's 171, with 24 abstentions. With bad grace, the one time Iron Lady left office begrudgingly, urging her supporters not to cooperate with the new Prime Minister.
Luckily, Heseltine was better than that. His first meeting was with the big three Cabinet ministers, Chancellor John Major, Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd and Home Secretary David Waddington. He asked them if they would continue to serve in the interests of party unity. Afraid of forcing an early election, they all readily agreed. Then Heseltine produced his masterstroke. Norman Tebitt had been one of the key early Thatcherite stormtroopers, but had retired from frontline politics in 1987 to care for his wife, who had been disabled in the Brighton bombing. Tebitt was as surprised as the rest of the nation to be invited to Number 10 and offered the post of Environment Secretary, tasked with sorting out the mess of the Poll Tax. However, the two men had worked closely together to abolish the Inner London Education Authority, so perhaps the move wasn't as shocking as it first seemed. His acceptance ensured that, for now, the Thatcherite wing of the party was neutered. To sooth the left, Clarke and Rifkind were brought back: Rifkind to Education, where he was charged with sorting out the confusing system of education vouchers, while Clarke was placed at the revamped Board of Trade. Also back in the job he'd so recently vacated was Sir Geoffrey Howe, whose resignation had triggered the chain of events which brought Thatcher down. Lord Whitelaw's return as Party Chairman was acceptable to all wings of the party. As Major had been appointed Chancellor by Thatcher, Heseltine moved his Heathite ally Peter Walker off the backbenches to be No 2 at the Treasury. The last major change was to remove Chris Patten's ministerial responsibilities and make him Minister Without Portfolio, or 'Minister for Winning the Election' as everyone, even Tory Central Office, came to call him.
Heseltine didn't waste any time. Quickly, it became obvious he was to be a very different PM from Thatcher. John Major was ordered to use the Treasury to help boost growth, rather than focusing solely on inflation, while Ken Clarke used the vastly expanded powers of the President of the Board of Trade to pour money into companies. As a result, while the economy did briefly slide into recession in 1991, it was over by the start of 1992. Tebitt set about tearing up the Poll Tax with gusto, claiming the Thatcher Cabinet had failed to explain it, so it wasn't worth keeping. Instead, he introduced a Council Tax, whereby homes, not individuals, were taxed. While two major changes in a short period caused resentment, by the time the first bills were produced in April 1992 people were just pleased the uncertainty was over. Heseltine's handling of the Gulf War was widely praised, and the shots of him visiting soldiers in Kuwait did wonders for his public image. He also scored a major coup over the Maastricht Treaty, by managing to secure a temporary opt out for Britain from the Social Chapter and proposed Single Currency, described as a political master-stroke as it kept both the pro-EEC and Eurosceptic Tories on board. And then, to collective amazement, Heseltine pulled off a spectacular general election win in May 1992, polling over fourteen million votes and winning a majority of 31.
However, the 1992 election marked the beginning of the end of the Tory years. The fragile truce which had existed between the Thatcherites and the One Nation Tories collapsed, as Lady Thatcher finally broke her silence to denounce Heseltine. The retirement of Norman Tebitt from the Cabinet meant that there was no longer any heavyweight Thatcherites to cover Heseltine from the inside, and he increasingly appeared beleaguered. The revolt of the right wing over the Maastricht Treaty led to near siege warfare to get the legislation through Parliament, and the new Labour leader, John Smith, used the opportunity to wreak havoc. Despite having avoided a serious recession, the economy spent most of 1992 and 1993 bumping along, despite the Chancellor's much vaunted 'green shoots' he insisted on seeing everywhere. The disastrous moves to privatise the Post Office and British Rail persuaded many people that the days of privatisation were coming to an end.
These difficult few years led to a challenge to Heseltine's leadership in 1994, when the Major resigned and challenged Heseltine to a leadership election. Major failed to unseat Heseltine, and became a thorn on the backbenches. However, the Prime Minister used this as an opportunity to reshuffle his Cabinet and promote more like-minded MPs, namely One Nation pro-EU Tories.
Despite a healthy economy, the Conservatives were massacred at the 1996 general election, with the party wiped out in Wales and Scotland, and reduced to a mere 170 English seats. The new United Kingdom Independence Party took 12 seats under former Cabinet minister Peter Lilley. The new Tory leader, Heseltine's former Foreign Secretary Chris Patten did a good job of holding Tony Blair to account during the 1996-2000 parliament, but was unable to make a dent in his majority in 2000 as he had to compete with Michael Portillo's UKIP. His successor, veteran bruiser Ken Clarke, did better against Blair in 2004 due to his opposition to the Iraq War; however, his pro-Europeanism ensured UKIP still did well. It has only been under David Cameron that some sense of unity has been restored to the Conservative Party; however, the minority pact he has been running with Nick Clegg since 2009 is still at the mercy of George Osborne's UKIP, a situation which can be traced back to those fateful days in 1990.
P.S. Heseltine Cabinet, 1990
Prime Minister- Michael Heseltine
Chancellor of the Exchequer- John Major
Foreign Secretary- Douglas Hurd
Home Secretary- David Waddington
President of the Board of Trade- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- Tom King
Health Secretary- William Waldegrave
Education and Science Secretary- Malcolm Rifkind
Social Security Secretary- David Hunt
Environment Secretary- Norman Tebitt
Transport Secretary-John MacGregor
Energy Secretary- Peter Lilley
Employment Secretary- Michael Howard
Scottish Secretary- Ian Lang
Welsh Secretary- Norman Lamont
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Brooke
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Peter Walker
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Geoffrey Howe
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Prior
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Lord Whitelaw
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- John Gummer
Minister Without Portfolio- Chris Patten
As the Cabinet was disintegrating, Heseltine was furiously courting backbenchers, telling them if this was allowed to carry on, the result would be a Labour government. Thatcher's increasingly abrasive style, the public relations disaster of the Poll Tax and, most worryingly for a backbencher, the fear of electoral meltdown made them listen. For the second ballot, only a simple majority was needed. In the end, it went to Heseltine by a whisker, his 177 votes beating Thatcher's 171, with 24 abstentions. With bad grace, the one time Iron Lady left office begrudgingly, urging her supporters not to cooperate with the new Prime Minister.
Luckily, Heseltine was better than that. His first meeting was with the big three Cabinet ministers, Chancellor John Major, Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd and Home Secretary David Waddington. He asked them if they would continue to serve in the interests of party unity. Afraid of forcing an early election, they all readily agreed. Then Heseltine produced his masterstroke. Norman Tebitt had been one of the key early Thatcherite stormtroopers, but had retired from frontline politics in 1987 to care for his wife, who had been disabled in the Brighton bombing. Tebitt was as surprised as the rest of the nation to be invited to Number 10 and offered the post of Environment Secretary, tasked with sorting out the mess of the Poll Tax. However, the two men had worked closely together to abolish the Inner London Education Authority, so perhaps the move wasn't as shocking as it first seemed. His acceptance ensured that, for now, the Thatcherite wing of the party was neutered. To sooth the left, Clarke and Rifkind were brought back: Rifkind to Education, where he was charged with sorting out the confusing system of education vouchers, while Clarke was placed at the revamped Board of Trade. Also back in the job he'd so recently vacated was Sir Geoffrey Howe, whose resignation had triggered the chain of events which brought Thatcher down. Lord Whitelaw's return as Party Chairman was acceptable to all wings of the party. As Major had been appointed Chancellor by Thatcher, Heseltine moved his Heathite ally Peter Walker off the backbenches to be No 2 at the Treasury. The last major change was to remove Chris Patten's ministerial responsibilities and make him Minister Without Portfolio, or 'Minister for Winning the Election' as everyone, even Tory Central Office, came to call him.
Heseltine didn't waste any time. Quickly, it became obvious he was to be a very different PM from Thatcher. John Major was ordered to use the Treasury to help boost growth, rather than focusing solely on inflation, while Ken Clarke used the vastly expanded powers of the President of the Board of Trade to pour money into companies. As a result, while the economy did briefly slide into recession in 1991, it was over by the start of 1992. Tebitt set about tearing up the Poll Tax with gusto, claiming the Thatcher Cabinet had failed to explain it, so it wasn't worth keeping. Instead, he introduced a Council Tax, whereby homes, not individuals, were taxed. While two major changes in a short period caused resentment, by the time the first bills were produced in April 1992 people were just pleased the uncertainty was over. Heseltine's handling of the Gulf War was widely praised, and the shots of him visiting soldiers in Kuwait did wonders for his public image. He also scored a major coup over the Maastricht Treaty, by managing to secure a temporary opt out for Britain from the Social Chapter and proposed Single Currency, described as a political master-stroke as it kept both the pro-EEC and Eurosceptic Tories on board. And then, to collective amazement, Heseltine pulled off a spectacular general election win in May 1992, polling over fourteen million votes and winning a majority of 31.
However, the 1992 election marked the beginning of the end of the Tory years. The fragile truce which had existed between the Thatcherites and the One Nation Tories collapsed, as Lady Thatcher finally broke her silence to denounce Heseltine. The retirement of Norman Tebitt from the Cabinet meant that there was no longer any heavyweight Thatcherites to cover Heseltine from the inside, and he increasingly appeared beleaguered. The revolt of the right wing over the Maastricht Treaty led to near siege warfare to get the legislation through Parliament, and the new Labour leader, John Smith, used the opportunity to wreak havoc. Despite having avoided a serious recession, the economy spent most of 1992 and 1993 bumping along, despite the Chancellor's much vaunted 'green shoots' he insisted on seeing everywhere. The disastrous moves to privatise the Post Office and British Rail persuaded many people that the days of privatisation were coming to an end.
These difficult few years led to a challenge to Heseltine's leadership in 1994, when the Major resigned and challenged Heseltine to a leadership election. Major failed to unseat Heseltine, and became a thorn on the backbenches. However, the Prime Minister used this as an opportunity to reshuffle his Cabinet and promote more like-minded MPs, namely One Nation pro-EU Tories.
Despite a healthy economy, the Conservatives were massacred at the 1996 general election, with the party wiped out in Wales and Scotland, and reduced to a mere 170 English seats. The new United Kingdom Independence Party took 12 seats under former Cabinet minister Peter Lilley. The new Tory leader, Heseltine's former Foreign Secretary Chris Patten did a good job of holding Tony Blair to account during the 1996-2000 parliament, but was unable to make a dent in his majority in 2000 as he had to compete with Michael Portillo's UKIP. His successor, veteran bruiser Ken Clarke, did better against Blair in 2004 due to his opposition to the Iraq War; however, his pro-Europeanism ensured UKIP still did well. It has only been under David Cameron that some sense of unity has been restored to the Conservative Party; however, the minority pact he has been running with Nick Clegg since 2009 is still at the mercy of George Osborne's UKIP, a situation which can be traced back to those fateful days in 1990.
P.S. Heseltine Cabinet, 1990
Prime Minister- Michael Heseltine
Chancellor of the Exchequer- John Major
Foreign Secretary- Douglas Hurd
Home Secretary- David Waddington
President of the Board of Trade- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- Tom King
Health Secretary- William Waldegrave
Education and Science Secretary- Malcolm Rifkind
Social Security Secretary- David Hunt
Environment Secretary- Norman Tebitt
Transport Secretary-John MacGregor
Energy Secretary- Peter Lilley
Employment Secretary- Michael Howard
Scottish Secretary- Ian Lang
Welsh Secretary- Norman Lamont
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Brooke
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Peter Walker
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Geoffrey Howe
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Prior
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Lord Whitelaw
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- John Gummer
Minister Without Portfolio- Chris Patten
Saturday 5 May 2012
What If... Election 2017
BBC Decision 2017
Lord Miliband: ... and while I accept, given the opponent we faced, there was little realistic chance of Ed winning, it does beg the question of whether he can lead the Labour party into an election in 2022.
Jeremy Paxman: Well, maybe you think you could have done better, but now we must get back to David Dimbelby. David?
David Dimbelby: Thanks very much Jeremy. Another result in there, Conservatives have gained Plymouth Devonport, the Defence Minister Alison Seabeck ousted, swing of 6.3%. That leaves only Ben Bradshaw in Exeter as a Labour MP south of Slough. Anyway, over to a summary of events from Nick Robinson.
Nick Robinson: When the history books are written, many will say it was here, at City Hall, that the new Prime Minister's road to victory began. When Boris Johnson narrowly ousted Ken Livingstone in 2008 to become Mayor of London, many saw it as the triumph of personality over policy. Boris certainly had personality, but, so it turned out, he also had policy. The 2012 rematch saw Boris narrowly beat Ken again, a ray of sunshine for the Tories on a night when so much else seemed to be going wrong.
Back then, David Cameron, was in No 10 Downing Street, aided by coalition partners the Liberal Democrats. But after two years in office, with the economy stalling and voters becoming increasingly fed up with political gaffes and miscalculations, the pressure was piling on. However, the response to the bloody nose of the 2012 local elections, followed by the police and crime elections in November, was for the coalition to stick to its guns and try to rebalance the books.
Unfortunately, they'd reckoned without George Osborne. His savage cuts, which from early 2013 really started to be felt by voters, also helped to nudge the economy merely from stalling back into recession. With benefits slashed, school funding falling and hospital wards closing, stories began to appear in the press of homelessness, medical disasters and families being forced to miss meals in order to make ends meet. Tory backbenchers feared electoral meltdown. The calls for Osborne's head grew louder. In June 2013, Cameron finally ditched his long term ally and replaced him with Philip Hammond, a safe pair of hands. However, Hammond was unable to turn the economy around either, merely mitigating the worst of Osborne's medicine.
Boris, on the other hand, was bucking the trend. He somehow managed to create the 200,000 new jobs he promised in 2012, and vastly increased spending on schools, hospitals and the capitals transport network. Much of this money came from his idea to place an extra 1p on alcohol sold within the capital, in exchange for a cut in tube and bus fares and lower council tax. By the end of 2014, a sort of replacement for the old EMA (abolished by Osborne in 2010) had been set up, driverless trains put in on the tube, more of the 'Boris bikes' and new routemasters bought. As an example of what could be done for less, it was striking. His ability to cross party lines was legendary. His photo-op drink with Ken Livingstone at the Olympics may have been derided as cheap tricks, but it underlined that Boris' appeal heavily outweighed that of his party in the capital. The 2012 Olympics gave Johnson the chance to look statesman like, although the embarrassing incident with the Mayor of Rio and the ping pong game will doubtless provide mirth to many for years. That aside, for many Tories he began to look increasingly attractive, at least in terms of electability.
Meanwhile, the coalition went into the 2015 election expecting a hammering. The deficit was still large, and further cuts would be needed to tame it. However, people's fear of Labour, plus general apathy over its leader, meant Ed Miliband didn't have an easy ride either. The result was another hung parliament, with Labour narrowly ahead, the Liberal Democrats shattered, and the Tories down but not out. UKIP entered the Commons for the first time, and the Greens also did well. The big winners of the night were the SNP, who became the third largest party in Parliament, seizing 21 seats. With a deal with both the SNP and the Lib Dems unthinkable, Labour formed a minority government.
Big mistake. The new Chancellor, Ed Balls, was unable to introduce many of his more radical ideas for restarting growth due to the panic of the markets at a minority government. Much of the government's political will was poured into defeating the independence referendum in Scotland in 2016. The narrow victory for the Union did nothing to solve the problems facing many voters. Osborne's cuts had done so much damage, both to the public finances and to the economy as a whole, that the new government barely knew where to start. However, as growth steadily returned through 2015 and 2016, and as the Treasury coffers began to fill again, it looked as if Labour would get away with it. There was certainly no public appetite for Cameron's successor as Tory leader, Michael Gove. Labour did well in the 2016 local elections, winning many councillors and saw Eddie Izzard, former stand up comic, beat Iain Duncan Smith in the race for Mayor of London.
But now Boris was free from a job, and wanted a new one. Returning to his old Commons seat of Henley in a by-election in early 2017, he immediately challenged Gove to a leadership contest. Narrowly coming through the MPs vote, Boris hammered Gove in the membership vote. He then radically reformed the Shadow Cabinet, sending Cameron to the Lords, but kept Gove at Health, to sort out the mess left by Andrew Lansley. Fresh blood was brought in to give the Conservatives a new lease of life. At PMQs Labour MPs laughed and jeered, but Ed Miliband was powerless to stop the Tory's 'Boris Bounce.' Labour's worst fears were realised in late 2017. A Commons vote on a new European treaty, designed by President Hollande of France and Chancellor Gabriel of Germany to re-kickstart growth in the Eurozone, saw the government defeated. Johnson then laid down a motion of no confidence, which the government lost by a single vote.
The resulting election campaign was full of drama. Miliband lost a lot of credibility when he tried to claim that Johnson was incompetent and would ruin the country; many people just wanted someone to get on with the job, and maybe lighten it up a bit too. Boris could point to his record in London to prove he could do more for less, promising to cut both taxes and the deficit. As we have seen tonight, the public liked what they saw.
David Dimbelby: Thanks very much Nick. While Nick was talking there were a few developments. Tim Farron, the new Liberal Democrat leader, has consulted with Charles Kennedy, the party's sole surviving MP, and has announced he is to start merger talks with Labour. Nigel Farage congratulated Mr Johnson and consoled the six of his MPs who lost their seats tonight, while Alex Salmond is facing leadership troubles of his own after the collapse of SNP support. Caroline Lucas is said to be delighted by the new Green contingent, speaking after the result in Cambridge. And last but not least, the Home Office minister, Stella Creasy, has clung onto her Walthamstow seat, and used her victory speech to announce she would challenge Ed Miliband in the inevitable leadership contest.
And just to remind you, here are the figures from 2015:
Labour- 283- 39%
Conservative- 261- 37%
SNP- 21- 2.2%
UKIP- 7- 4.8%
Liberal Democrat- 5- 10%
Greens- 3- 2.2%
Plaid Cymru- 2- 0.5%
Northern Ireland- 17- 1.5%
And our final projection, with 592 results declared:
Conservative- 354- 46.3%
Labour- 218- 36.7%
Green- 6 - 3.2%
SNP- 2- 1.3%
Liberal Democrat- 1- 7%
UKIP- 1- 2.6%
Plaid Cymru- 2- 0.3%
Northern Ireland- 17- 1.5%
And so that would leave Mr Johnson with a majority of 108, incidentally, on a high turnout, of some 70%, which will doubtless be attributed to the Boris factor.
Anyway, that's it from us, and to leave you with the words of our new Prime Minister, 'Now, let's get stuck in, and show the world Britain is back for good.'
P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2015
Prime Minister- Ed Miliband
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Ed Balls
Foreign Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Home Secretary- Yvette Cooper
Justice Secretary- Sadiq Kahn
Defence Secretary- Jim Murphy
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Stephen Twigg
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham
Business, Innovations and Skills Secretary- Chuka Umunna
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Angela Eagle
Transport Secretary- Maria Eagle
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Mary Creagh
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Caroline Flint
International Development Secretary- Ivan Lewis
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Tom Watson
Scottish Secretary- Margaret Curran
Welsh Secretary- Chris Bryant
Northern Irish Secretary- Vernon Croaker
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Rachel Reeves
Leader of the House of Commons- Hilary Benn
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and First Secretary of State- Harriet Harman
P.P.S. Johnson Cabinet, 2017
Prime Minister- Boris Johnson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Justine Greening
Foreign Secretary- Owen Paterson
Home Secretary- James Brokenshire
Justice Secretary- Dominic Raab
Defence Secretary- Dan Byles
Education Secretary- Liz Truss
Health Secretary- Michael Gove
Business Secretary- Chloe Smith
Work and Pensions Secretary- Maria Miller
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Grant Schapps
Transport Secretary- Kwasi Kwarteng
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Greg Barker
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Zac Goldsmith
International Development Secretary- Karen Lumley
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Penny Mordaunt
Scottish Secretary- Ben Wallace
Welsh Secretary- Guto Bebb
Northern Irish Secretary- Richard Fuller
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Matthew Hancock
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir William Hague
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Cameron
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Mark Pritchard (Party Chairman)
Lord Miliband: ... and while I accept, given the opponent we faced, there was little realistic chance of Ed winning, it does beg the question of whether he can lead the Labour party into an election in 2022.
Jeremy Paxman: Well, maybe you think you could have done better, but now we must get back to David Dimbelby. David?
David Dimbelby: Thanks very much Jeremy. Another result in there, Conservatives have gained Plymouth Devonport, the Defence Minister Alison Seabeck ousted, swing of 6.3%. That leaves only Ben Bradshaw in Exeter as a Labour MP south of Slough. Anyway, over to a summary of events from Nick Robinson.
Nick Robinson: When the history books are written, many will say it was here, at City Hall, that the new Prime Minister's road to victory began. When Boris Johnson narrowly ousted Ken Livingstone in 2008 to become Mayor of London, many saw it as the triumph of personality over policy. Boris certainly had personality, but, so it turned out, he also had policy. The 2012 rematch saw Boris narrowly beat Ken again, a ray of sunshine for the Tories on a night when so much else seemed to be going wrong.
Back then, David Cameron, was in No 10 Downing Street, aided by coalition partners the Liberal Democrats. But after two years in office, with the economy stalling and voters becoming increasingly fed up with political gaffes and miscalculations, the pressure was piling on. However, the response to the bloody nose of the 2012 local elections, followed by the police and crime elections in November, was for the coalition to stick to its guns and try to rebalance the books.
Unfortunately, they'd reckoned without George Osborne. His savage cuts, which from early 2013 really started to be felt by voters, also helped to nudge the economy merely from stalling back into recession. With benefits slashed, school funding falling and hospital wards closing, stories began to appear in the press of homelessness, medical disasters and families being forced to miss meals in order to make ends meet. Tory backbenchers feared electoral meltdown. The calls for Osborne's head grew louder. In June 2013, Cameron finally ditched his long term ally and replaced him with Philip Hammond, a safe pair of hands. However, Hammond was unable to turn the economy around either, merely mitigating the worst of Osborne's medicine.
Boris, on the other hand, was bucking the trend. He somehow managed to create the 200,000 new jobs he promised in 2012, and vastly increased spending on schools, hospitals and the capitals transport network. Much of this money came from his idea to place an extra 1p on alcohol sold within the capital, in exchange for a cut in tube and bus fares and lower council tax. By the end of 2014, a sort of replacement for the old EMA (abolished by Osborne in 2010) had been set up, driverless trains put in on the tube, more of the 'Boris bikes' and new routemasters bought. As an example of what could be done for less, it was striking. His ability to cross party lines was legendary. His photo-op drink with Ken Livingstone at the Olympics may have been derided as cheap tricks, but it underlined that Boris' appeal heavily outweighed that of his party in the capital. The 2012 Olympics gave Johnson the chance to look statesman like, although the embarrassing incident with the Mayor of Rio and the ping pong game will doubtless provide mirth to many for years. That aside, for many Tories he began to look increasingly attractive, at least in terms of electability.
Meanwhile, the coalition went into the 2015 election expecting a hammering. The deficit was still large, and further cuts would be needed to tame it. However, people's fear of Labour, plus general apathy over its leader, meant Ed Miliband didn't have an easy ride either. The result was another hung parliament, with Labour narrowly ahead, the Liberal Democrats shattered, and the Tories down but not out. UKIP entered the Commons for the first time, and the Greens also did well. The big winners of the night were the SNP, who became the third largest party in Parliament, seizing 21 seats. With a deal with both the SNP and the Lib Dems unthinkable, Labour formed a minority government.
Big mistake. The new Chancellor, Ed Balls, was unable to introduce many of his more radical ideas for restarting growth due to the panic of the markets at a minority government. Much of the government's political will was poured into defeating the independence referendum in Scotland in 2016. The narrow victory for the Union did nothing to solve the problems facing many voters. Osborne's cuts had done so much damage, both to the public finances and to the economy as a whole, that the new government barely knew where to start. However, as growth steadily returned through 2015 and 2016, and as the Treasury coffers began to fill again, it looked as if Labour would get away with it. There was certainly no public appetite for Cameron's successor as Tory leader, Michael Gove. Labour did well in the 2016 local elections, winning many councillors and saw Eddie Izzard, former stand up comic, beat Iain Duncan Smith in the race for Mayor of London.
But now Boris was free from a job, and wanted a new one. Returning to his old Commons seat of Henley in a by-election in early 2017, he immediately challenged Gove to a leadership contest. Narrowly coming through the MPs vote, Boris hammered Gove in the membership vote. He then radically reformed the Shadow Cabinet, sending Cameron to the Lords, but kept Gove at Health, to sort out the mess left by Andrew Lansley. Fresh blood was brought in to give the Conservatives a new lease of life. At PMQs Labour MPs laughed and jeered, but Ed Miliband was powerless to stop the Tory's 'Boris Bounce.' Labour's worst fears were realised in late 2017. A Commons vote on a new European treaty, designed by President Hollande of France and Chancellor Gabriel of Germany to re-kickstart growth in the Eurozone, saw the government defeated. Johnson then laid down a motion of no confidence, which the government lost by a single vote.
The resulting election campaign was full of drama. Miliband lost a lot of credibility when he tried to claim that Johnson was incompetent and would ruin the country; many people just wanted someone to get on with the job, and maybe lighten it up a bit too. Boris could point to his record in London to prove he could do more for less, promising to cut both taxes and the deficit. As we have seen tonight, the public liked what they saw.
David Dimbelby: Thanks very much Nick. While Nick was talking there were a few developments. Tim Farron, the new Liberal Democrat leader, has consulted with Charles Kennedy, the party's sole surviving MP, and has announced he is to start merger talks with Labour. Nigel Farage congratulated Mr Johnson and consoled the six of his MPs who lost their seats tonight, while Alex Salmond is facing leadership troubles of his own after the collapse of SNP support. Caroline Lucas is said to be delighted by the new Green contingent, speaking after the result in Cambridge. And last but not least, the Home Office minister, Stella Creasy, has clung onto her Walthamstow seat, and used her victory speech to announce she would challenge Ed Miliband in the inevitable leadership contest.
And just to remind you, here are the figures from 2015:
Labour- 283- 39%
Conservative- 261- 37%
SNP- 21- 2.2%
UKIP- 7- 4.8%
Liberal Democrat- 5- 10%
Greens- 3- 2.2%
Plaid Cymru- 2- 0.5%
Northern Ireland- 17- 1.5%
And our final projection, with 592 results declared:
Conservative- 354- 46.3%
Labour- 218- 36.7%
Green- 6 - 3.2%
SNP- 2- 1.3%
Liberal Democrat- 1- 7%
UKIP- 1- 2.6%
Plaid Cymru- 2- 0.3%
Northern Ireland- 17- 1.5%
And so that would leave Mr Johnson with a majority of 108, incidentally, on a high turnout, of some 70%, which will doubtless be attributed to the Boris factor.
Anyway, that's it from us, and to leave you with the words of our new Prime Minister, 'Now, let's get stuck in, and show the world Britain is back for good.'
P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2015
Prime Minister- Ed Miliband
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Ed Balls
Foreign Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Home Secretary- Yvette Cooper
Justice Secretary- Sadiq Kahn
Defence Secretary- Jim Murphy
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Stephen Twigg
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham
Business, Innovations and Skills Secretary- Chuka Umunna
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Angela Eagle
Transport Secretary- Maria Eagle
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Mary Creagh
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Caroline Flint
International Development Secretary- Ivan Lewis
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Tom Watson
Scottish Secretary- Margaret Curran
Welsh Secretary- Chris Bryant
Northern Irish Secretary- Vernon Croaker
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Rachel Reeves
Leader of the House of Commons- Hilary Benn
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and First Secretary of State- Harriet Harman
P.P.S. Johnson Cabinet, 2017
Prime Minister- Boris Johnson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Justine Greening
Foreign Secretary- Owen Paterson
Home Secretary- James Brokenshire
Justice Secretary- Dominic Raab
Defence Secretary- Dan Byles
Education Secretary- Liz Truss
Health Secretary- Michael Gove
Business Secretary- Chloe Smith
Work and Pensions Secretary- Maria Miller
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Grant Schapps
Transport Secretary- Kwasi Kwarteng
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Greg Barker
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Zac Goldsmith
International Development Secretary- Karen Lumley
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Penny Mordaunt
Scottish Secretary- Ben Wallace
Welsh Secretary- Guto Bebb
Northern Irish Secretary- Richard Fuller
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Matthew Hancock
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir William Hague
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Cameron
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Mark Pritchard (Party Chairman)
Thursday 3 May 2012
What If... Britain Still Ruled America?
Recently we have passed the first anniversary of the marriage of Prince William to his long time girlfriend Kate. With their anniversary plans kept strictly under wraps, a White House spokesman was quick to stress they wouldn't emulate Juan Carlos of Spain by jet-setting. After all, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and British America has so much to offer, why bother going abroad?
And to think it all could have been so different. Hidden away in the depths of the National Archives in Georgetown, far from the publicly displayed Magna Carta, Emancipation Act and our copy of the United Nations Charter, is a little known document which could have torn the country apart. Found amongst the private papers of Thomas Jefferson, a Virginian lawyer who would later become Governor of British America between 1801 and 1809, was a detailed legal statement declaring the separation of the Thirteen Colonies from the Crown. Historians have argued ever since the document was found in the 1980s whether it is genuine. Even if if is, it doesn't matter. By the time the Second Continental Congress met in June 1775, Lord North, the Prime Minister in London, had displayed the political nous which would serve him well in the Taxation Crisis. Having cunningly driven dissent to the brink, bizarrely this made it easier for him to back down, and in April 1775 he ordered the British army to cease raids on the arms depots of the rebels. Deprived of an atmosphere of crisis, the Congress merely settled for improved tax trade rights, and the guarantee of political representation in the future.
The preservation of this large economic powerhouse helped to make Britain into the major global superpower which she is today. The agreement between Governor James Madison and Lord Liverpool in 1812, which freed the Continental Army for use against Napoleon in exchange for American MPs in London, proved to be crucial, for it allowed the rapidly expanding population of British America to wield real power. However, the resultant rebellion over the abolition of slavery this also entailed left a lasting scar on the south of British America. But this aside, the two cultures found they had a lot in common. Soon American politicians began to make themselves known in Parliament; Andrew Jackson was a key player in the drive of Earl Grey to force through the Great Reform Act of 1832, which massively extended the franchise across the UK, while the decision of Abraham Lincoln to switch from backing the Liberals to the Conservatives swept Benjamin Disraeli into power.
And then it happened. In 1900, the Conservative party chose Teddy Roosevelt, MP for New York, Manhattan over Arthur Balfour, the MP for Manchester East as its leader and new Prime Minister. The axis of power had now well and truly shifted. When Roosevelt was defeated in the Liberal landslide of 1906, it was to another American, Woodrow Wilson, MP for Princeton, NJ. Under Wilson, the power of the House of Lords was severly curtailed by the Parliament Act 1911, and this was also when Parliament itself moved to Georgetown on a permanent basis. From now, the only Prime Ministers for British seats would be David Lloyd George, who ousted Wilson in 1916 due to difficulties during the First World War, and FDR's long standing deputy Clement Attlee, who stepped in when FDR died in 1945 and finished the construction of the welfare state which the Democratic Labour Party had been building since 1933. The decision of Edward VII to spend most of his time in America meant that even the Royal Family had moved on, replacing Balmoral for Camp David (named for Edward's eldest grandson, who briefly ruled as Edward VIII).
Some native Britons still made an impact on the national stage. Winston Churchill's decision to join FDR's National Government in 1940 as Minister for War is credited as the best military decision FDR ever made, while Harold Wilson served as a brilliant Chancellor of the Exchequer for Bobby Kennedy. Few will ever forget the close relationship between Ronald Reagan and the contemporary Governor of Britain, Margaret Thatcher, or that between Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Tony Blair.
But despite big names such as these, Britain slowly became a backwater, with all the high politics, culture and drama taking place in British America. After all, across the water they had Macdonalds, Hollywood and much more money. Although the Prime Minister had to retain an interest in Britain during the Cold War, after 1989 it was hard to remain focused. And so, a trend which began in the year that Richard Nixon's Tories ousted Bobby Kennedy from Number One Observatory Circle passed almost unnoticed. For it was in that year that the United Kingdom Independence Party gained its first seats in Parliament. Formed in 1968 by Conservative dissident Enoch Powell, it gradually built up support under various defectors from both the Tories and Dem Labs. In 2010 it took almost half the vote in mainland Britain, and their charismatic leader trounced both Stephen Harper and Paul Martin in the TV debates. In 2012 their candidate for Governor of Britain, David Miliband, is expected to sweep into office by a landslide, and whoever wins the 2014 general election, be it the Tories again under Stephen Harper or Democratic Labour under charismatic new leader Barack Obama, will doubtless have to tangle with UKIP's William Hague over keeping Britain in the Union.
Prime Ministers, 1900-2012
1900-1906- Theodore Roosevelt (Conservative)
1906-1916- Woodrow Wilson (Liberal)
1916-1922- David Lloyd George (Liberal)
1922-1933- Calvin Coolidge (Conservative)
1933-1945- Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Democratic Labour)
1945-1951- Clement Attlee (Democratic Labour)
1951-1963- Dwight D. Eisenhower (Conservative)
1963-1964- John Dienfenbaker (Conservative)
1964-1970- Robert Kennedy (Democratic Labour)
1970-1974- Richard Nixon (Conservative)
1974-1979- Pierre Trudeau (Democratic Labour)
1979-1990- Ronald Reagan (Conservative)
1990-1997- Brian Mulroney (Conservative)
1997-2007- Bill Clinton (Democratic Labour)
2007-2010- Paul Martin (Democratic Labour)
2010-2012- Stephen Harper (Conservative)
UKIP Leaders, 1968-2012
1968-1975- Enoch Powell
1975-1979- Edward Heath
1979-1987- Shirley Williams
1987-1994- John Smith
1994-1997- Malcolm Rifkind
1997-2005- David Davis
2005-2012- William Hague
And to think it all could have been so different. Hidden away in the depths of the National Archives in Georgetown, far from the publicly displayed Magna Carta, Emancipation Act and our copy of the United Nations Charter, is a little known document which could have torn the country apart. Found amongst the private papers of Thomas Jefferson, a Virginian lawyer who would later become Governor of British America between 1801 and 1809, was a detailed legal statement declaring the separation of the Thirteen Colonies from the Crown. Historians have argued ever since the document was found in the 1980s whether it is genuine. Even if if is, it doesn't matter. By the time the Second Continental Congress met in June 1775, Lord North, the Prime Minister in London, had displayed the political nous which would serve him well in the Taxation Crisis. Having cunningly driven dissent to the brink, bizarrely this made it easier for him to back down, and in April 1775 he ordered the British army to cease raids on the arms depots of the rebels. Deprived of an atmosphere of crisis, the Congress merely settled for improved tax trade rights, and the guarantee of political representation in the future.
The preservation of this large economic powerhouse helped to make Britain into the major global superpower which she is today. The agreement between Governor James Madison and Lord Liverpool in 1812, which freed the Continental Army for use against Napoleon in exchange for American MPs in London, proved to be crucial, for it allowed the rapidly expanding population of British America to wield real power. However, the resultant rebellion over the abolition of slavery this also entailed left a lasting scar on the south of British America. But this aside, the two cultures found they had a lot in common. Soon American politicians began to make themselves known in Parliament; Andrew Jackson was a key player in the drive of Earl Grey to force through the Great Reform Act of 1832, which massively extended the franchise across the UK, while the decision of Abraham Lincoln to switch from backing the Liberals to the Conservatives swept Benjamin Disraeli into power.
And then it happened. In 1900, the Conservative party chose Teddy Roosevelt, MP for New York, Manhattan over Arthur Balfour, the MP for Manchester East as its leader and new Prime Minister. The axis of power had now well and truly shifted. When Roosevelt was defeated in the Liberal landslide of 1906, it was to another American, Woodrow Wilson, MP for Princeton, NJ. Under Wilson, the power of the House of Lords was severly curtailed by the Parliament Act 1911, and this was also when Parliament itself moved to Georgetown on a permanent basis. From now, the only Prime Ministers for British seats would be David Lloyd George, who ousted Wilson in 1916 due to difficulties during the First World War, and FDR's long standing deputy Clement Attlee, who stepped in when FDR died in 1945 and finished the construction of the welfare state which the Democratic Labour Party had been building since 1933. The decision of Edward VII to spend most of his time in America meant that even the Royal Family had moved on, replacing Balmoral for Camp David (named for Edward's eldest grandson, who briefly ruled as Edward VIII).
Some native Britons still made an impact on the national stage. Winston Churchill's decision to join FDR's National Government in 1940 as Minister for War is credited as the best military decision FDR ever made, while Harold Wilson served as a brilliant Chancellor of the Exchequer for Bobby Kennedy. Few will ever forget the close relationship between Ronald Reagan and the contemporary Governor of Britain, Margaret Thatcher, or that between Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Tony Blair.
But despite big names such as these, Britain slowly became a backwater, with all the high politics, culture and drama taking place in British America. After all, across the water they had Macdonalds, Hollywood and much more money. Although the Prime Minister had to retain an interest in Britain during the Cold War, after 1989 it was hard to remain focused. And so, a trend which began in the year that Richard Nixon's Tories ousted Bobby Kennedy from Number One Observatory Circle passed almost unnoticed. For it was in that year that the United Kingdom Independence Party gained its first seats in Parliament. Formed in 1968 by Conservative dissident Enoch Powell, it gradually built up support under various defectors from both the Tories and Dem Labs. In 2010 it took almost half the vote in mainland Britain, and their charismatic leader trounced both Stephen Harper and Paul Martin in the TV debates. In 2012 their candidate for Governor of Britain, David Miliband, is expected to sweep into office by a landslide, and whoever wins the 2014 general election, be it the Tories again under Stephen Harper or Democratic Labour under charismatic new leader Barack Obama, will doubtless have to tangle with UKIP's William Hague over keeping Britain in the Union.
Prime Ministers, 1900-2012
1900-1906- Theodore Roosevelt (Conservative)
1906-1916- Woodrow Wilson (Liberal)
1916-1922- David Lloyd George (Liberal)
1922-1933- Calvin Coolidge (Conservative)
1933-1945- Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Democratic Labour)
1945-1951- Clement Attlee (Democratic Labour)
1951-1963- Dwight D. Eisenhower (Conservative)
1963-1964- John Dienfenbaker (Conservative)
1964-1970- Robert Kennedy (Democratic Labour)
1970-1974- Richard Nixon (Conservative)
1974-1979- Pierre Trudeau (Democratic Labour)
1979-1990- Ronald Reagan (Conservative)
1990-1997- Brian Mulroney (Conservative)
1997-2007- Bill Clinton (Democratic Labour)
2007-2010- Paul Martin (Democratic Labour)
2010-2012- Stephen Harper (Conservative)
UKIP Leaders, 1968-2012
1968-1975- Enoch Powell
1975-1979- Edward Heath
1979-1987- Shirley Williams
1987-1994- John Smith
1994-1997- Malcolm Rifkind
1997-2005- David Davis
2005-2012- William Hague
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