What If... The Chads Fell Off?

You'd never have thought there was so much to say about holes in a piece of card. But, as the world's press, and seemingly all the lawyers in the USA, descended on Florida in November 2000, the premier democracy in the world was plunged into a period of constitutional crisis. The Presidential election, between Democratic Vice President Al Gore and Republican Governor of Texas George W. Bush, had ended in a dead heat. Gore was ahead in the popular vote by around 500,000 votes, but in that bizarre American institution, the Electoral College, the two candidates were virtually tied. The closest states were New Mexico, Oregon and Florida, but with 25 electoral votes, Florida was the only one big enough to tip the balance. Further complicating the subject was the nature of Florida's voting machines, which hadn't correctly processed all the votes. Also rather conveniently, Bush's younger brother Jeb was the Governor of Florida. Weeks of chaos followed, as arguments raged over hanging chads. The battle went the whole way to the US Supreme Court, when on December 12th the Court made it's ruling. A statewide recount was ordered, and on January 1st 2001 the result was announced: Gore had snatched victory by 171 votes. He was to become the 43rd President of the United States.

Bush returned to Texas, clearly devastated by his loss. It also marked the end of his national career, and severely damaged the political future of the Bush family; both father and son had now lost the Presidency. For Gore, the victory was narrow, harrowingly so, but it was enough to put him in the White House, and that was what mattered. In his Inauguration Address in January 2001 he acknowledged how close and bitter the campaign had been, hoping "this belatedly broken impasse can point us all to a new common ground, for its very closeness can serve to remind us that we are one people with a shared history and a shared destiny." He hinted at ambitious plans to help restart the US economy after the bursting of the Dotcom bubble and increase environmental protection.

Yet what a Gore Presidency would have looked like under normal circumstances will never be known. In September 2001, barely eight months into his term, Islamic fundamentalist terrorists hijacked aeroplanes and used them to destroy the World Trade Centre in New York; the Pentagon was also attacked while a fourth airliner crashed in rural Pennsylvania, stopped from reaching Washington thanks to the courage of the hostages. The gaping, smouldering holes left in the New York skyline brought a guillotine down across American history. President Gore was in Florida on a schools visit when he heard the news, along with Governor Jeb Bush. Gore immediately realised this was an event of incredible proportions, and left Jeb to handle the schoolchildren whilst he boarded Air Force One and raced back to the White House. From there, his calm and measured words, promising to help those devastated and to try those responsible, helped to rally the American people, as simultaneously messages of support flooded in from across the world. Fairly quickly, the culprits were identified as Al-Qaeda, led by the shadowy Osama Bin Laden from the mountains of Afghanistan, where they were shielded by the ruling Taliban. President Gore laid down an ultimatum to the Taliban; hand Bin Laden over to the International Criminal Court, or the world would respond.

The UN invasion of Afghanistan in early 2002 failed to capture Bin Laden, who would remain in hiding for another nine years, however it did succeed in overthrowing the Taliban, and the subsequent international reconstruction effort led to the election of the first civilian administration in 2004, and the withdrawal of all US troops by October of that year. With such an easy overseas success under his belt, Gore came under immense pressure, mainly from the Republicans but also from Vice-President Joe Lieberman, to finish the work of President Bush from 1991 and invade Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein from power. In the anti-war camp was most of the Democratic Party, and the vast majority of the international community. This gave the President an important bulwark against the war; it would ruin the vast pool of international sympathy which the United States had gained on 9/11. And so, despite all the howls of protest, Saddam was left in power. Of course, back in 2003 there was no way of knowing that in 2011 he would be toppled by the Iraqi people themselves. Unfortunately, in the short term it made Gore look like he was shrinking from a fight, and at the 2002 mid-term elections the Democrats took a pounding, making the ambitious healthcare and environmental packages devised by the President look even less likely. In the following atmosphere of gridlock, plus public fatigue with the Democrats after nearly 12 years in power, few were surprised when Gore was narrowly ousted from the White House by Republican Mike Huckabee in 2004. Gore was devastated, as Bush Senior and Carter had been before him, at having been ousted after only a single term. Only his 2007 Noble Peace Prize, for environmental activism and dedication to multilateral action, helped to ease the pain.

However, 2004 wasn't a bad election to lose. President Huckabee saw his term blighted by catastrophes. His poor response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was widely condemned, while Gore's warnings about the dangers of global warming began to look increasingly relevant. Overseas, the airstrikes against Iraq and other states accused of sponsoring terrorism undid the Clinton-Gore efforts to act multilaterally. And then, just when it appeared that nothing could get worse, the US economy went into a downward spiral as the financial sector threatened to drag the US into a depression. Huckabee became the second one-term President in a row, as voters ran back to the safety of the Democrats. The new President made an excellent start, helping to turn round the US economy and pull it back from the brink, whilst also starting to rebuild America's image overseas after the disastrous military actions of the Republican years. And so we had the bizarre spectacle of a Bush-Clinton rematch this year, as President Hillary Clinton saw off the challenge from Jeb Bush.

P.S. US Presidents and Vice Presidents, 1993-2017

1993-2001- Bill Clinton/ Al Gore (Democrat)
2001-2005- Al Gore/ Joe Lieberman (Democrat)
2005-2009- Mike Huckabee/ Olympia Snowe (Republican)
2009-2017- Hillary Clinton/ Evan Bayh (Democrat)

The Wit and Wisdom of... Dag Hammarskjöld

It is when we all play safe that we create a world of utmost insecurity. It is when we all play safe that fatality will lead us to our doom. It is in the "dark shade of courage" alone that the spell can be broken.

Dag Hammarskjöld, United Nations Secretary-General, 1962

The Wit and Wisdom of... John Major

I know how hard so many of you have worked. I know how much you have sacrificed, given up, hoped, dreamed for a different result and a different outcome tonight. It hasn't proved that way. I don't think there is much we left undone which we could have done. There are some times in politics when the ball just rolls in the opposite direction, and there isn't a great deal you can do about it.

John Major, in the early hours of May 2nd 1997, conceding defeat in the 1997 election.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bobby Kennedy

The problem of power is how to achieve its responsible use rather than its irresponsible and indulgent use — of how to get men of power to live for the public rather than off the public.

Robert F. Kennedy, 1964