The Scene: A pub in Chipperfield (ie, the middle of nowhere) at 8pm on 28/12; A group of friends are trying to find a pub for a catch up drink and chat
Me (Entering the pub and seeing it's completely empty): Um, sorry to bother you, but are you still open?
Barman: Am now! Do you want me to put some more logs on the fire?
Thursday 29 December 2011
Wednesday 21 December 2011
What If... Britain was in the Euro?
The decision by David Cameron to veto the proposed European treaty to solve the Euro has plunged European politics into crisis. With Labour and some Liberal Democrats hounding Cameron for negotiating in bad faith, and for damaging Britain's national interest, Cameron has replied by sounding ever more belligerent. Our presence in the single currency now hangs in the balance.
It all seems so long ago, those heady days of 2003, when the first Euro coins bearing the head of Elizabeth II were unveiled by the Royal Mint. Getting there hadn't been easy, however. When Tony Blair first announced he was keen to join the Euro, early on in his premiership, he faced fierce opposition from his then Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. Brown, and his aid Ed Balls, refused to let Britain join the Euro until the economy had passed five economic tests, which guaranteed that the move would be good for Britain. But after the 2001 election returned Labour with another massive landslide, Blair began to grow impatient. Added to this was the momentum; William Hague's main platform had been 'Save the Pound', and he had been punished at the polls as a result. But still, despite all the urging and pressure, Brown wouldn't budge.
The opportunity to break this impasse came in 2002, when the International Monetary Fund began to seek a new Managing Director, to begin in 2004. Blair put Brown's name forward, and Brown resigned from the government to contest the job, having become fed up with fighting Blair. Into Brown's place Blair appointed the New Labour stalwart Alan Milburn. Despite an enormous backbench rebellion, Milburn managed to force through Parliament a Bill to join the Euro, providing a referendum held in late 2002 was passed.
To almost everyone's amazement, the referendum passed the public vote by 52% to 48%. This came as a surprise to many, not least many in the Cabinet who were expecting it to fail. But with the Conservative Party under Iain Duncan Smith in no position to offer a coherent resistance, the combined efforts of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and a host of smaller parties was enough to overcome public scepticism. The start date for the new currency was 1st January 2004.
At first, the fuss seemed largely pointless. The 'UK Euro' had the Queen's head on it, and the widespread financial chaos predicted never materialised; indeed, some older people observed that the move to decimal had been much worse. Travelling abroad became much easier, while in Northern Ireland the move was widely praised for helping to bolster links with the Republic. Michael Howard's promise to bring back the pound may have won him some votes in the 2005 election, but his party was still badly beaten by Labour. As time went by, the issue faded from people's memory.
Until 2007. The financial crisis which overtook much of Western capitalism placed the European single currency under enormous pressure, exacerbated by the different priorities of the Eurozone countries. With Blair gone, Milburn had now become Prime Minister, and as a response to the near collapse of the UK's banking sector he poured billions of euro into the City of London to help shore it up. The national debt ballooned, and it rapidly became clear that the markets were spooked by this level of debt. The obvious answer would have been to cut interest rates and devalue the currency, but Britain's membership of the Euro prevented this from being done. The markets were briefly calmed by the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in May 2010, but before long the pressure was rising again. Despite slashing public spending as fast and as deep as it could, in the face of enormous public dissent and protests, the government was unable to meet its borrowing requirements, and in November 2011 was forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout. Some have speculated it was the punishment handed out by Gordon Brown when his IMF team stormed in and imposed strict controls on the City which goaded Cameron into using his veto, bringing the UK one step closer to the ultimate goal of both men; to get our own currency back.
At first, the fuss seemed largely pointless. The 'UK Euro' had the Queen's head on it, and the widespread financial chaos predicted never materialised; indeed, some older people observed that the move to decimal had been much worse. Travelling abroad became much easier, while in Northern Ireland the move was widely praised for helping to bolster links with the Republic. Michael Howard's promise to bring back the pound may have won him some votes in the 2005 election, but his party was still badly beaten by Labour. As time went by, the issue faded from people's memory.
Until 2007. The financial crisis which overtook much of Western capitalism placed the European single currency under enormous pressure, exacerbated by the different priorities of the Eurozone countries. With Blair gone, Milburn had now become Prime Minister, and as a response to the near collapse of the UK's banking sector he poured billions of euro into the City of London to help shore it up. The national debt ballooned, and it rapidly became clear that the markets were spooked by this level of debt. The obvious answer would have been to cut interest rates and devalue the currency, but Britain's membership of the Euro prevented this from being done. The markets were briefly calmed by the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in May 2010, but before long the pressure was rising again. Despite slashing public spending as fast and as deep as it could, in the face of enormous public dissent and protests, the government was unable to meet its borrowing requirements, and in November 2011 was forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout. Some have speculated it was the punishment handed out by Gordon Brown when his IMF team stormed in and imposed strict controls on the City which goaded Cameron into using his veto, bringing the UK one step closer to the ultimate goal of both men; to get our own currency back.
Saturday 10 December 2011
Britain, the EU, and Cricket
So it finally happened. A British Prime Minister, sitting in council with the other leaders of the EU, decided to use the nuclear option of EU diplomacy, exercising our veto over a new treaty. Not even Mrs Thatcher, in the two years where she really, *really* hated Europe, went so far as to do this.
Now, I'm not going to go into the politics of it all, largely as I'm not sure where the whole event is going, or what I actually feel about it. But I do have one big question. Why is it that the EU, uniquely in British politics, seems to have become linked to cricket?
Let me give you some examples:
I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late. And in case anyone doubted it, can I assure you there will be no ducking the bouncers, no stonewalling, no playing for time. The bowling's going to get hit all round the ground. That is my style. (Mrs Thatcher, on European trouble in her government, Nov 1990)
It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain. (Sir Geoffrey Howe, about Thatcher's attitude to Europe, Nov 1990)
Game set and match for Britain! (Attributed to John Major, on the Maastricht Treaty, Dec 1991)
John Redwood, the arch-Eurosceptic who challenged Major for Tory leader in 1995, announced his Cabinet resignation while dressed for a cricket match he was in.
And more recently:
Today, Cameron didn't even want to be on the pitch. Even before this summit began, he decided to pull stumps and retreat to the Eurosceptic pavilion. Cameron could have been batting for British interests. Instead, he had put the Tory party's self-interest ahead of Britain's national interest (Ed Miliband, Yesterday)
Now, I'm not going to go into the politics of it all, largely as I'm not sure where the whole event is going, or what I actually feel about it. But I do have one big question. Why is it that the EU, uniquely in British politics, seems to have become linked to cricket?
Let me give you some examples:
I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late. And in case anyone doubted it, can I assure you there will be no ducking the bouncers, no stonewalling, no playing for time. The bowling's going to get hit all round the ground. That is my style. (Mrs Thatcher, on European trouble in her government, Nov 1990)
It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain. (Sir Geoffrey Howe, about Thatcher's attitude to Europe, Nov 1990)
Game set and match for Britain! (Attributed to John Major, on the Maastricht Treaty, Dec 1991)
John Redwood, the arch-Eurosceptic who challenged Major for Tory leader in 1995, announced his Cabinet resignation while dressed for a cricket match he was in.
And more recently:
Today, Cameron didn't even want to be on the pitch. Even before this summit began, he decided to pull stumps and retreat to the Eurosceptic pavilion. Cameron could have been batting for British interests. Instead, he had put the Tory party's self-interest ahead of Britain's national interest (Ed Miliband, Yesterday)
But the Germans were never going to stump up for that, until they had proper financial controls. (Paddy Ashdown, Yesterday)
Can anyone else see a pattern? Any ideas?!
Sunday 4 December 2011
What If... The Vikings Never Came?
The crisis in the Eurozone has been only a secondary story in England this week; the big question here is whether the English Penny can survive. Following yesterday's talks at Tamworth, the Mercian Finance Minister, George Osborne, has expressed some hope for the single currency, but it all depends on massive cuts to public spending which the Northumbrian Ealdorman, John Prescott, argues that his region can ill afford. Meanwhile, Presidents Salmond, Adams and Heseltine of Scotland, Ireland and Wales have issued a joint statement calling for swift actions lest their economies get harmed too; the pressure on the UK is really hotting up. Of course, these regional differences are nothing new; indeed they have haunted the United Kingdom of England since its formation in the 1400s. Given the long lasting division of the four kingdoms which make up the UK (Wessex, East Anglia, Northumbria and Mercia), this is hardly surprising.
It is odd that this island was spared the Viking onslaught of the eighth and ninth centuries, which might otherwise have transformed the history of the English kingdoms, as happened in France and Ireland. Many historians attribute this to the quick actions by a West Saxon reeve in 789, defeating a Viking party as it came ashore in Dorset. With a lack of easy plunder, the Vikings apparently turned to France, Ireland and to exploring further afield in East and West. Had they focused their efforts on England, it is impossible to know what damage they would have wreaked upon the English kingdoms.
Instead, the delicate power balance between Mercia, Wessex, East Anglia and Northumbria remained in place for much of the Middle Ages, with one state unable to totally dominate the others. The Mercian dominance of the eighth century gave way to a fine balance between Wessex and Mercia through much of the ninth and tenth centuries. In this time of relative peace, the great cultural outpouring of the eighth century continued. The chief military and foreign policy challenges were Welsh or Scottish raiders, or dealing with the odd incursion from Viking Ireland.
This isolated paradise began to change in the eleventh century, when the Viking descended Dukes of Normandy managed to seize control of Wessex in 1066, placing Duke William on the throne as King. This gave Wessex a much more Continental flavour than its Anglo-Saxon cousins, and even today Wessex is the only region to elect a President rather than an Ealdorman, while it insists on calling the Federal Witan a 'Parliament'.
The massive social upheaval caused by the Black Death in the 1340s, and the Hundred Years' War between Wessex and Mercia, caused these kingdoms to decline severely, while East Anglia benefited from the rise in late medieval trade to became immensely rich. The East Anglian King Athelstan XI (1387-1404) has gone down in history as the man who set in motion the United Kingdom of England, by marrying the daughter of Leofwine VI of Northumbria (1340-1392). When, in 1471, the exhausted Royal Family of Wessex ended with the death of the last Plantagenet King Henry VI, the West Saxon Witan invited Athelstan XV (1469-1492) of East Anglia/Northumbria to be its King too. Once secure on the West Saxon throne, Athelstan invaded Mercia, and at the Battle of Bosworth in 1485 defeated the last native Mercian King, Offa XX (1483-1485), who would forever be vilified in history for his murder of his two nephews.
Ever since, the United Kingdom of England has sort of muddled through, always operating as one kingdom through the Federal Witan and central government at Tamworth in Mercia. Over time, the Witan became an elected body, as did the local Witans and Chief Ealdormen. This strong sense of local identity is reflected in the strong regional dialects we have, which makes even reading road signs from one region to the next hard. While the wars of the twentieth century helped to bind the UK together, more recent economic woes have started to pull at the threads. With a Northumbrian referendum on independence pencilled in for 2016, it looks like a rough ride ahead for the Chief Ealdorman David Cameron; it'll take some explaining to Queen Ealhswith II if he has to break up her United Kingdom of England.
Saturday 3 December 2011
What If... Heath Settled With the Miners?
A Britain in economic crisis. Europe looming large in our politics. Spiralling energy prices. The trade unions. Recent events have led many commentators to point to the 1970s for a parallel. The coalition must be praying they are right; the 1970s was after all the decade which ushered in the remarkable twenty years of Conservative rule, and arguably the fifteen which came shortly after too.
If there was any point when this rule came closest to ending between the elections of 1970 and 1990, it was in January 1974. The country was gripped by a huge shortage of fuel following a war in the Middle East and a dispute with the coal miners at home. Things were starting to look desperate for the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath. But finally, he and Joe Gormley, the miners' union leader, were able to hammer out a deal which satisfied the miners' demands. Crucially, Gormley was persuaded at the last minute not to let Harold Wilson, the Labour leader, in on the agreement, thus preventing any wrecking tactics by Labour.
The return to work by the miners enabled the power shortages and the Three Day Week to be brought to an end, and Heath was widely praised for his handling of the crisis. When he called an election in mid-1974, Wilson's complaints fell on deaf ears; Heath was overwhelmingly re-elected. He was thus able to continue with his package of industrial and economic reforms, and as the economy gradually improved he was able to draw back from many of the interventionist positions he had been forced to adopt during the 1970-1974 era. As North Sea oil began to flow ashore, productivity rose and unemployment fell, it looked like Heath's much vaunted economic miracle was about to become reality.
But looks can be deceptive. The sterling crisis of 1976 was a low point for Heath, with Britain forced to take out a loan from the IMF in order to get by, causing the resignation of his Chancellor of the Exchequer Keith Joseph. It was all easy pickings for new Labour leader Denis Healey, and in the 1978 election he cut Heath's majority from 63 to 37. The buoyant economy helped the Prime Minister to survive, along with the news that the IMF loan wasn't really needed anyway due to Treasury miscalculations. Winning the BBC Sports Personality of the Year in 1977 for his second Admiral's Cup sailing victory can't have done him any harm either. And it was a good job he held the election in the summer too, given the epic battles between the trades unions and the government during the 1978-79 'Winter of Discontent'. Luckily, the Trade Union Act of 1975 held firm, and despite an uncomfortable few months, Heath soon emerged victorious in this second clash with the unions.
Edward Heath retired from politics in 1980, his popularity riding high on the back of his rescue of stranded sailors in 1979s Fastnet Race. He handed over to his young Heathite protege Peter Walker. Walker's response to the severe early 1980s recession was a massive programme of investment in British industry to finish what Ted Heath had started. Those in the Tory Party unhappy with such an approach lost the remaining key free-marketer in the Cabinet when the Trade and Industry Secretary, Margaret Thatcher, was sacked by Walker following her assertion that higher unemployment would kick-start the economy. Walker was also lucky in that Labour had also chosen 1980 to change its leader. After a decade out of power, the Labour left had persuaded Tony Benn to challenge Denis Healey, and at a stroke the party ceased to be a credible electable force. The split in the party as right wingers left for the new Social Democrats was hugely damaging to Labour.
The first signs of recovery, a split opposition and Britain's victory in the Falklands gave Walker a landslide victory in 1982, which he repeated in 1986. Alongside the booming economy, his major theme was to sell off those parts of the public sector which he didn't think should be in private hands. Labour howled, and from the right some Tories argued he hadn't gone far enough, but after selling off British Airways, BP, British Steel and part-privatising BT, Walker refused to go further, believing that key services should remain in public hands. His undoing was his reform of local government finance; as the minister in the early 1970s who had redrawn the county boundaries, he was always vulnerable in this area. His suggestion to widen the rates and means test individuals caused a storm of fury, almost certainly losing him the 1990 election to Labour's John Smith.
But Labour's first taste of power in two decades came at the worst possible moment. The world economy plunged into an even more severe recession than had been seen in the early 1980s, depriving Labour of the money they had promised for public sector investment. The hard left element in Labour opposed to the EC also played havoc with the Maastricht Treaty in the House of Commons, forcing Smith to rely on new Conservative leader Ken Clarke to help him get the legislation through. Under the strain of all this, Smith died of a heart attack in May 1994. The one figure with the gravitas to hold Labour together was gone, and his replacement, former Chancellor Gordon Brown, was unable to convince voters that the economy was back on track; The Tories were returned in 1995 by a landslide. They would remain in power, first under Clarke and then under Michael Portillo, until the hung parliament of 2010 brought Labour leader David Miliband and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg together in the first coalition government since the Second World War. As the former Liberal Democrat leader, Tony Blair (Leader from 1993-2005) has said, it is an occasion with the hand of history on its shoulder.
1970-1980- Edward Heath (Con)
1980-1990- Peter Walker (Con)
1990-1994- John Smith (Lab)
1994-1995- Gordon Brown (Lab)
1995-2007- Ken Clarke (Con)
2007-2010- Michael Portillo (Con)
2010-2011- David Miliband (Lab)
P.P.S. Labour Leaders, 1970-2011
1970-1975- Harold Wilson
1975-1980- Denis Healey
1980-1982- Tony Benn
1982-1994- John Smith
1994-2000- Gordon Brown
2000-2005- Robin Cook
2005-2011- David Miliband
P.P.P.S. Conservative Leaders, 1970-2011
1970-1980- Edward Heath
1980-1990- Peter Walker
1990-2007- Ken Clarke
2007-2010- Michael Portillo
2010-2011- Michael Gove
Thursday 17 November 2011
University Bureaucracy
So today I finally got round to sorting out our council tax exemptions (possibly prompted by the three magistrate's summons we got today...). As part of this, I needed a certificate from the university to send to the council. On the university website, when you click the button marked 'Exemption forms- City of York Council' you get a page telling you to go in and see the Student Info people.
Needless to say, this is when it got complicated...
Me: "Hi there, can I request and pickup a council tax form please?"
Lady behind the desk: "Have you not looked online?"
Me: "Well, I did, but all it did was tell me to come in and ask."
Lady behing the desk: "Ah yes, did you click on the link for 'Exemption forms- City of York Council'? We've actually put them under 'Exemption forms- Other Local Authorities'."
...
Let's not even go there...
Needless to say, this is when it got complicated...
Me: "Hi there, can I request and pickup a council tax form please?"
Lady behind the desk: "Have you not looked online?"
Me: "Well, I did, but all it did was tell me to come in and ask."
Lady behing the desk: "Ah yes, did you click on the link for 'Exemption forms- City of York Council'? We've actually put them under 'Exemption forms- Other Local Authorities'."
...
Let's not even go there...
Tuesday 8 November 2011
University Printers- The Scanning Option
Brilliant new idea from the University. They decided that they'd set the printers up so that you can scan a piece of paper, which it promptly emails to your university email address, for you to read as a PDF or print at your leisure. What a nice idea.
Until, of course, you have scanned two articles, only to get to the printer and be confronted with 54 PDFs, all with names like ypp.237w4987234698.pdf, with half the pages missing and in any sort of order, and some of them being things you're pretty sure you've never seen before, let alone scanned...
Well done University, it's another winner!
Until, of course, you have scanned two articles, only to get to the printer and be confronted with 54 PDFs, all with names like ypp.237w4987234698.pdf, with half the pages missing and in any sort of order, and some of them being things you're pretty sure you've never seen before, let alone scanned...
Well done University, it's another winner!
N.B. Its also apparently nigh on impossible to persuade the printer not to print duplex (double sided, apparently)...
Thursday 27 October 2011
What If... Cameron Retires, 2024
(Taken from Hansard, 14th April 2024)
Ms. Yvetter Cooper (Pontefract, Speaker)- Order, order. The House will now hear a personal statement from the Prime Minister.
Cheers from the Government Benches
Sir David Cameron (Witney, Con)- Thank you very much Madam Speaker. Before I begin, can I take this opportunity to offer condolences to the families of the twelve Royal Marines killed in Saudi Arabia yesterday when their helicopter was downed by Islamist insurgents. We remember them and their families in our thoughts.
Madam Speaker, I address this House for the last time as Prime Minister today, a job I first started nearly 14 years ago in May 2010. Indeed, I am now the fourth longest serving Prime Minister of all time, as I was assured during a quiz in my constituency over the Easter recess, surpassing even the late Lady Thatcher. I will now set out to defend my record before this House one final time.
Compared to May 2010, I think the country is in a much better state economically than when this party inherited it from the party Opposite (Cries of dissent from the Opposition Benches) Well, they can scream and shout all they want, but it is true. Had we not taken tough steps to reduce the appalling structural deficit, then the UK would never have dealt with the second step of the Great Recession in the manner which it did. In the end, we managed to restore economic growth, and had eliminated the deficit by 2018. I'm aware that the pain involved was great for many, but as my predecessor Lord Major of Brixton once said, "If it isn't hurting, it isn't working". The steps which we took to rebalance the economy away from financial services and towards manufacturing have seen the boom of British industrial output of which we can all be immensely proud. This more than compensates for the departure of HSBC and RBS overseas to China and Scotland. The privatisation of the Royal Mail and Transport for London, as well as the part-privatisation of the BBC, helped to raise many of the funds which made this possible.
Staying on the economic front, the collapse of the Eurozone in 2012 was a crisis which we could never have foreseen in 2010, and I believe that my Right Honourable Friend the member for Tatton (Sir George Osborne, Con) deserves full credit for helping to steer the pound through this immensely troubling time, and for a few weeks in 2012 it did seem as if the whole financial system of the world would collapse. The decision of the EU to sacrifice itself in the name of economic stability, and to return to simply being a common trading area, was bold and brave, and I am proud to have played a role in the foundation of the new European Trading Area.
But to say that I was all about the economy would be wrong. I'm also very proud of the political reforms instituted by this government. The 2016 referendum on the future of the UK stands as one of my proudest pieces of cross-party co-operation; a federal UK is much better than that proposed by the SNP, which has been rightly punished at the polls as a result. The decision of the Liberal Democrats to join the the Conservative Party in 2016 following their electoral wipeout in 2015 was sensible in bringing together like minded individuals...
Mr Charles Kennedy (Inverness and Highland South, Lab)- Not all of us sold out! Cheers from the Opposition Benches
Sir David Cameron (Witney, Con)- I'm aware that the Right Hon. Gentleman has strong feelings on the issue, as do all the Labour members who were previously Liberal Democrats. All I can say is that Lord Clegg of Sheffield has made an outstanding contribution to British politics, both as Deputy Prime Minister and more recently as the British representative on the ETA Council. He made the right choice in joining the Conservative Party, while I'd like to know what those members who scurried off to Labour have achieved in the last fourteen years! I know not all those on these Benches were happy with the move, but I hope that followers of the former London Mayor Boris Johnson will eventually return to the fold from UKIP after his attempted leadership challenge in 2017.
Zac Goldsmith (Richmond and Kingston, Green)- And what of those of us who went elsewhere?
Sir David Cameron (Witney, Con)-I say to the Hon. Gentleman that he missed the chance to be a member of the greenest ever government, which was pivotal in the success of Earth Summit II in 2012, which built a new generation of nuclear, wind and solar power stations and is now investing heavily in new technologies, including the experimental fusion reactor at the University of Cambridge.
While on the subject of universities, I am pleased that the UK's universities are all now recovering from the shock they experienced in 2012-2019. In retrospect, we should have realised that the lower number of young people at that time would have been hard enough for them to handle without the fee rises. The contraction of the sector to 50 institutions was a shock, but now that £9000 has become the norm, I hope that the next generation will find itself better equipped for the world ahead. In our schools, I am pleased to say that 45% of all schools now receive funding from outside bodies, a huge success which my Right Hon. friend the member for Surrey North West should be pleased with.
I know that many people will remember me most for the ending of the NHS in 2020. However, I stand by what was said by the former Health Secretary Lord Lansley of Cambridge said in 2018 when he brought forward the Health Insurance Act, that we could simply no longer afford the spiralling costs of healthcare. I believe that the radical Health Insurance scheme which has replaced it will eventually become as loved as the NHS was.
Away from these shores, the successful homecoming of British troops from Afghanistan and Libya has been my proudest achievement. The successful victory of democracy in Libya is something we can all be proud of, while the subsequent fate of Afghanistan after NATO left in 2015 makes me very grateful that Britain got out when it did. I am aware that the subsequent interventions in Syria, Saudi Arabia and Yemen have not been universally popular, but if we talked the talk on Libya then our commitment to protecting democratic revolutionaries had to be proved again and again. Compared to the previous government's lapdog attitue to America, I would like to think that the UK's relationship with the USA has been more balanced. My partnerships with Presidents Obama and Priebus have been fruitful and helped the world to deal with the emergence of the Chinese power bloc which is starting to make its weight felt in areas such as Iran, Africa and South America, where Argentine sabre-rattling over the Falklands is particularly worrying.
Madam Speaker, I could go on, but I can see the Leader of the Opposition is dying to make her reply...
Miss Rachel Reeves (Leeds Outer, Lab)- Only because you've gone on so long...
Sir David Cameron (Witney, Con)- I regret that the Right Hon. Lady feels that way, and she shall have her chance to reply in a moment. Incidentally, I see that her predecessors, the Right Hon. Members for Doncaster and Wigan (Mr Miliband, Lab and Mr Burnham, Lab) are here in the House today, and I wish to thank them for helping me to achieve the three election victories I enjoyed, the last two landslides.
Laughter from the Government Benches
No seriously Madam Speaker, they did well in holding this government to account, and I wish them well. I also wish to thank both yourself and your predecessors, Lord Bercow of Buckingham, for tolerating me through these long years in office. Of course, I hope that you shall enjoy working with my successor the Right Hon. Member for Tatton. Now we come to a curious moment. It is nearly 17 years since a Prime Minister last made a resignation speech before the House. That was Tony Blair, and I will not go into his subsequent fate. For those wondering what I plan to do, I shall not profit from the office in the same way that Mr Blair sought to do. Instead, I can now reveal that I have accepted a job as UN Special Envoy on Climate Change from next May when I leave this House, to continue work I have long believed important. And on that note, Madam Speaker, I say farewell, and wish everyone in this House a long and fruitful career.
Wednesday 12 October 2011
Stupid Website...
Dear Amazon,
If I'd have wanted an Amazon Bank of America card instead of "The Viking World", I would have made this clear before reaching the checkout; LET ME BUY THE SODDING BOOK!
Yours sincerely,
Kieran
Tuesday 4 October 2011
Americans and Royaltly
Last night I was out in York for intro drinks for the people studying at the Centre for Medieval Studies, and this was said to me:
American student- "Your royal wedding was huge over in the States, but can I just say, we Americans don't approve of Prince Charles, can't you have William next?"
Now call me Mr Suspicious, but surely you forfeited your right to have a say in the matter some time ago?!
Wednesday 28 September 2011
Complaining Customer, Round II
So today at work I got a call out to the main desk when I was covering for my manager. The exchange was suitably brilliant:
Receptionist: "Ah, Kieran, this lady here has a complaint about lane ropes."
Complaining Lady: "Hi there, I'm not sure if you're aware, but I have complained about this before..."
Me, in head: *Yes, I know, as one of times you did, you told *ME* that the service simply wasn't good enough and I wasn't doing my job properly...*
However, I grinned and bore it. Although she was still a pain...
Tuesday 27 September 2011
What If... Gordon Brown Won the Election?
In comparison, the Conservatives were in turmoil. Despite being leader since December 2005, the youthful David Cameron had failed to fully stamp his authority across his party, with many members being unhappy over his attempts to modernise the party. While Blair had been PM this hadn't really mattered due to his collapsing authority and sinking popularity, but with the expected enemy gone the Tories were caught on the hop. As for the Liberal Democrats, the period after the 2005 election had been a traumatic one for the party, with Charles Kennedy resigning due to alcohol problems and Sir Menzies Campbell failing to make an impact with the public at large.
In the first autumn campaign since 1974, Brown presented to the country a programme he said would "Promote Britain and promote Britishness." This appealed to many people. Also, there were signs of trouble ahead for the economy, and although Labour had been in power for ten years before, people were more worried by the prospect of Conservative cuts than the record of Tony Blair. As for the Conservatives, they stumbled fairly early on, when their promise to all but abolish inheritance tax was attacked as being nothing more than helping the rich. It also soon became apparent that their economic policies were lacking.
When polling day came in early November, Labour's vote share actually rose, as people were attracted to Gordon Brown's agenda of 'Promoting Britishness and Britain'. However, the 2005 result was revealed to have been a fluke, as this translated into a reduced number of seats, leaving Brown with an overall majority of 12. The Tories also saw a modest rise in their seats and votes, but it was not enough to save Cameron, who was ousted as Conservative leader in January 2008 by the 1922 Committee, placing his erstwhile ally George Osborne in the job. The Lib Dems lost 7 seats. It seemed that, for now, Brown was safe.
But then the unexpected happened. The trouble over Northern Rock, and the rapidly darkening economic prospects, convinced Brown that such a precarious majority would not see him through a full Parliament. So the first meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party after the election was astonished to here their leader say he was going to seek a coalition with the Lib Dems. In the talks which followed, Sir Menzies Campbell managed to extract generous terms from Brown, both in terms of policies and government posts. The right wing media both laid into the coalition with humour and malice, saying it would not last the year.
They were wrong. The public quite liked the idea of politicians working together, and the near collapse of the world economy meant that both parties were able to pitch the deal as being in the national interest. It also gave Brown the excuse to ditch those ministers he had been less than happy working with: John Hutton paid dearly for saying that Brown as PM would be "an effing disaster."
With respected economic mind Vince Cable at the Treasury, backed by Alistair Darling, the economy was well placed amidst the economic storm which broke around it from 2008 onwards. Meanwhile, Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Secretary Ed Balls embarked on a huge investment programme to resurrect British industry, while his activities in the City of London caused the banks to walk in fear as some were nationalised, while all were divided into 'investment' or 'high street' banks, as well as heavily taxed.
Away from economics, the government did adopt a number of Liberal Democrat ideas. ID cards were scrapped by the new Home Secretary Alan Johnson, while the Health and Education departments under Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes took on a distinctly liberal flavour, with the Academies programme being halted in favour of more inclusive comprehensives. A new department, for Climate Change and Energy, under Chris Huhne managed to ban free plastic bags in supermarkets, as well as imposing tough climate change targets; however, the government had to agree to disagree over the issue of nuclear power. Ruth Kelly at Transport was charged with bringing Britain's rail network up to date, and by 2009 work had started on a new London-Manchester maglev, with plans in place to extend it to Exeter and Glasgow. The key Lib Dem demand of political reform was tackled by Sir Menzies Campbell and his protege Nick Clegg, who along with Douglas Alexander and Andy Burnham introduced proportional representation in local elections and provisions for the Alternative Vote and the right to recall your MP after the next general election. These measures helped to soothe public rage over the MPs expenses scandal, which hit all parties badly.
By May 2010 the economy, which had plunged into recession, was starting to grow again, and Brown and Sir Menzies stood down together as party leaders and PM and Deputy PM, saying the time had come to pass the baton on to the next generation. A Cabinet reshuffle ensued; Charles Kennedy's political rehabilitation was completed by him becoming Home Secretary, where he gained the praise of both police and public by patrolling with the police during this summer's riots, while new deputy Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson became a thorn in the side of the SNP as Scottish Secretary. New star Nick Clegg also became a full Secretary of State in charge of the Justice Department, although his attempts to replace shorter jail sentences with community service were mercilessly hounded by the Tories.
Labour also saw changes, with its new deputy leader, John Cruddas, making his mark as Communities Secretary in the way he managed to appeal across the social spectrum and his well thought ideas for local communities. Veteran Alan Johnson became Foreign Secretary, as he had the verve to pull it off. Stephen Twigg, the new Universities Minister, was instrumental in getting the government to abolish tution fees in favour of a time-limited graduate tax. The coalition also broke with political precedent by appointing the first ever MP from Ulster as Northern Irish Secretary, David Ford, the widely respected leader of the non-sectarian Alliance Party.
P.S. 2007 General Election Results
Labour- 329 seats- 38.4%
P.P.S. Brown Cabinet, 2007
P.P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2010
Prime Minister- David Miliband (Lab)
But all the focus was on the new leaders; could they do enough to secure re-election in 2011/12? With the election being left till 2012 it remains to be seen, but with the Lib Dem's new leader, Chris Huhne, being instrumental in the 2009 Copenhagen Earth Pact and Labour's David Miliband having taken the historic step to throw Britain's clout behind the bid for Palestinian statehood, George Osborne has a huge mountain to climb.
P.S. 2007 General Election Results
Labour- 329 seats- 38.4%
Conservatives- 233 seats- 34.7%
Liberal Democrats- 55 seats- 22.1%
Democratic Unionist Party- 7 seats- 0.9%
Scottish National Party- 6 seats- 1.3%
Sinn Fein- 5 seats- 1.0%
Plaid Cymru- 4 seats- 0.6%
Social Democratic and Labour Party- 3 seats- 0.3%
Ulster Unionist Party- 2 seats- 0.4%
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland- 1 seat- 0.2%
Independent- 1 seat- 0.1%
P.P.S. Brown Cabinet, 2007
Prime Minister- Gordon Brown (Lab)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council- Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem) Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State- David Miliband (Lab)
Home Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Defence Secretary- Des Browne (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Health Secretary- Simon Hughes (Lib Dem)
Transport Secretary- Ruth Kelly (Lab)
Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Jack Straw (Lab)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary- Jacqui Smith (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Ed Miliband (Lab)
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- James Purnell (Lab)
Innovation, Universities and Skills Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Lab)
Northern Ireland Secretary- Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Alistair Darling (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Leader of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman (Lab)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Steel (Lib Dem)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster - Andy Burnham (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Political Reform Minister- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Minister Without Portfolio- Douglas Alexander (Lab)
P.P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2010
Prime Minister- David Miliband (Lab)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Home Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Defence Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Health Secretary- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Transport Secretary- Sadiq Kahn (Lab)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary and First Secretary of State- John Cruddas (Labour Deputy Leader)
International Development Secretary- Simon Hughes (Lib Dem)
Work and Pensions Secretary- John Healey (Lab)
Climate Change Secretary and Deputy PM- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem Leader)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Tom Watson (Lab)
Scottish Secretary and Paymaster General- Jo Swinson (Lib Dem Deputy Leader)
Welsh Secretary- Lembit Opik (Lib Dem)
Northern Ireland Secretary- David Ford (Alliance)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for Political Reform- Ed Miliband (Lab)
Lord President of the Council and Minister for Financial Reform- David Laws (Lib Dem)
Leader of the House of Commons- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Steel (Lib Dem)
Universities Minister- Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Minister Without Portfolio- Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Monday 26 September 2011
What If... Oswald Mosley vs Neville Chamberlain
Brimingham, election night 1924. Even as the first Labour government is falling across the country, they have cause for hope here. One of their star candidates, a young Tory defector Sir Oswald Mosley, is trying to unseat the former Conservative Health Minister Neville Chamberlain. As the votes come in it is clear that it is going to be close. Then the result; Mosley had beaten Chamberlain by 7 votes. His triumphal victory salute was a ray of sunshine for Labour on what was otherwise a bad night for the party.
Given the trajectories of the two mens' careers, it is hard to forget that Chamberlain was widely expected to go far. The son of political legend Joseph Chamberlain, he was widely touted as a future Chancellor of the Exchequer, maybe even Prime Minister. Instead, by defeating the Chamberlain tradition in its home of Birmingham, Mosley propelled his own career to new heights. During Labour's years in opposition in the 1920s, he quickly established his credentials as one of the brightest and best of the new intake of Labour MPs. This was to be crucial to his survival after his resignation from the Cabinet in 1931 over its inability to solve the economic crisis engulfing the country. He apparently considered leaving Labour and starting a new party, but was perusaded by friends to stay and fight for the soul of his party. When Ramsay MacDonald split the Cabinet by joining the National Government and crushed Labour in the ensuing election, Mosley was one of the few survivors, and as one of the leading rebels against MacDonald was catapulted into a senior role as Shadow Chancellor. He used this position to advocate a vast programme of public works to drag the county out of depression. When Clemet Attlee became leader in 1935, Mosley was the obvious choice for his deputy.
But the shattering defeats of 1931 and 1935 might have left Mosley trapped in a party of opposition forever. It was the Second World War which transformed Labour's prospects. In May 1940, when Tory PM Viscount Halifax was replaced by Winston Churchill, Labour were invited into the War Cabinet. Mosley was made Home Secretary and Lord President of the Council, with almost total control over the domestic war effort. One of his first acts was to imprison Neville Chamberlain, who had veered right after his defeat and had led the British Union of Fascists through the 1930s. The contributions of Labour ministers to the war effort helped to sweep them into office in 1945 by a landslide.
But the shattering defeats of 1931 and 1935 might have left Mosley trapped in a party of opposition forever. It was the Second World War which transformed Labour's prospects. In May 1940, when Tory PM Viscount Halifax was replaced by Winston Churchill, Labour were invited into the War Cabinet. Mosley was made Home Secretary and Lord President of the Council, with almost total control over the domestic war effort. One of his first acts was to imprison Neville Chamberlain, who had veered right after his defeat and had led the British Union of Fascists through the 1930s. The contributions of Labour ministers to the war effort helped to sweep them into office in 1945 by a landslide.
Mosley's role in the war effort and his radical economic thinking had seen many tipping him to be Chancellor, so there was widespread shock when Attlee made him Minister of Labour. It seemed such an under-use of talent. But Mosley got the better of his critics again. He managed to position himself as a grand "Minister of Nationalisation", helping to drive through the Attlee welfare state. Under him, areas such as coal, steel, shipbuilding, gas, water, electricity, telecommunications, the railways, canals, road haulage, civil aviation and even the Bank of England were taken into public ownership, workers were given representation at the top levels of the organisations and huge amounts of money were pumped into them. In partnership with Nye Bevan, Mosley also managed to ram the National Health Service through the opposition of the Conservatives and the British Medical Association. Against these changes, the Tory opposition of Winston Churchill floundered, helping Attlee to win a landslide victory in 1950. Shortly after, he retired, and there was only one obvious alternative: so in 1950, at the age of 53, Sir Oswald Mosley became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Despite a rocky start at No 10, with the Korean War eating into public finances, Mosley went on to become one of the more successful Prime Ministers of the 20th Century. His major road building programme created the modern 'Speedway' network which connects all of our major cities, while the plans for high speed rail would later come to fruition in the 1970s. While there were no more nationalisations, the creation of the People's Bank (an arm of the Post Office) helped to create an enduring national institution, which came to the rescue of the Labour government in 2007-2009 when it was the springboard for the recapitalisaton of the banking sector. In foreign affairs, Mosley presided over the granting of self rule to many of Britain's colonies, later setting in motion the wheels of decolonisation. Rising prosperity on the back of economic recovery enabled the end of food rationing, contributing greatly to Mosley's landslide re-election in 1955.
But after 1955 he suffered his greatest setback. The Suez Crisis, when Mosley refused to use force to cajole President Nasser of Egypt into lifting tolls on the Suez Canal, saw him lambasted in the press. His foreign policy response, to join the nascent EEC, failed to excite the imagination of the public. On the domestic front, the lack of any new radical policies deprived him of the initiative, and new Conservative leader RAB Butler proved a formidable opponent in the House of Commons. The unexpected imposition of controls on immigration was also a shocking departure for a left wing government, and convinced many voters the time was right for a change. The end came in 1959 when it was revealed that his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hugh Gaitskell, was sleeping with the wife of British novelist Ian Fleming. Mired in scandal, Mosley called a general election; the fact that Butler only won by three seats is a testament to the affection which many voters held Mosley and his Labour party in, despite all that had come to pass.
Mosley's rise to the top may look inevitable, but it could all have been so different. Had he lost to Chamberlain in 1924, he may have never entered politics again, or gone off on a different political trajectory altogether. Chamberlain would doubtless have not swung to the far right, and may have remained in the government, although his strident rhetoric and uncompromising attitude may not have survived the policy of appeasement. Aside from his achievements in government, Mosley had a long lasting impact on Britain by dragging its politics to the left, thus forcing all political life into a more left wing setup than anyone could have imagined. His family remains a significant player in British politics, although his son's chances of becoming PM himself were greatly harmed by tabloid accusations of a sex scandal involving; you guessed it, James Bond characters.
What If... Scotland Broke Free?
The recent Scottish elections have caused many people to take another look at England's northern neighbour, with the Scottish First Secretary promising a referendum on the relationship between Scotland and the UK. Inevitably, memories of the other Scottish referenda spring to mind.
The 1979 referendum on Scottish devolution is often seen as the moment when the future of the United Kingdom changed forever. Despite only being endorsed by a narrow majority, and technically failing to meet the government's requirements, the Callaghan administration decided to ignore its backbench critics and set up the Scottish Assembly, with its limited powers over home affairs, health, education and the environment. The Scottish National Party was delighted with the result, however the fury of many Labour backbenchers meant that Callaghan could not survive the vote of no confidence held in March 1979, losing by a single vote. In the subsequent election, Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives edged into power with a majority of 43, and the SNP suffered heavily, being reduced to two seats. However, it had still delivered, and was thus more a victim of the electoral system than anything else.
However, despite being a pro-Union Tory, Thatcher found herself unable to reverse the Scotland Act of 1978, which was now ingrained in the mind of the Scottish people, so was forced to hold elections to the new Scottish Assembly in 1980, alongside local elections. The result was a resounding victory for the Labour party, however only four seats separated the SNP, the Liberals and the Conservatives, showing that the nationalists were already on the road to recovery. The new Assembly immediately found a role as offering an alternative voice for the Scots against the ravages of Thatcherism, which hit Scotland especially hard. As unemployment soared and Scottish industry was devastated, the Assembly under First Secretary Bruce Millan tried its best to help by protesting to the Westminster government and running job creation schemes. Many Scots felt it didn't do enough, and were increasingly drawn to the 'go it alone' attitude of the SNP. In the 1983 UK general election, not a single Conservative was elected in Scotland. The collapse of the Scottish Conservatives, combined with the factionalism then tearing Labour apart led to the election of a minority SNP Assembly executive in 1984 under Gordon Wilson.
This was the turning point for the Scots. Even though they were a minority government, the executive was a thorn in Westminster's side, constantly using its powers (and in some cases powers it didn't have) to counter policies from the south. Mrs Thatcher, growing tired of this obstructionism, introduced legislation in 1986 to abolish the Assembly. Wilson called a snap Scottish poll and in the sense of crisis took 84 of the 100 seats. The inevitable independence referendum followed in 1987, showing 52% in favour of leaving the UK. By late 1987, the separation was complete as Scotland struck out on its own under First Secretary Wilson and President Margo MacDonald.
At first all seemed to go well. The creation of the Scottish Fuel Fund, a sort of eternal savings bank for oil revenues, permitted public spending to rise from the dismal levels they had sunk to under Thatcher, while many of the more unpopular decisions taken since 1979 were reversed, such as the abolition of SNHS charges. Scottish membership of the EEC also brought in huge amounts of outside money into impoverished areas, helping to fund projects such as the Skye bridge, high speed rail, wind turbines and urban renewal. In time, this would lead to Scotland being a founding member of the Euro. By 1991, when the new Scottish Parliament used proportional representation for the first time, the new SNP leader Alex Salmond came close to taking over half the votes; instead he ruled as part of the SNP-Green coalition until 1999, and again after the defeat of the Scottish Labour-Lib Dem pact in 2003.
For the rest of the UK, the consequences were mixed. The Conservative government, which lost no MPs itself but saw its opposition shrink in size, was kept in power until 1997, when Labour secured a precarious majority of 27, hindered by the lack of Scottish MPs. There was no economic slump, and people got used to the idea of England's northern neighbour being a bit different. English universities saw declining student numbers as many students took advantage of the lower fees in Scotland. The armed forces still attracted a large number of Scottish recruits, who preferred the Royal Scottish Regiment to the new Scottish Defence Force. Even the Queen seemed to cope; she remained the owner of Balmoral, although for the sake of appearances she sold Holyrood House to the Scottish President Sean Connery in 1995. The separate Scottish political parties worked closely with their Westminster counterparts, but the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition of 1999-2003 failed to re-establish the union, with it being rejected by 71% by voters.
However, this seemingly happy ending all changed in 2007-2011, with the global financial crisis overtaking Scotland. As a former economist, Salmond's claim that he had "abolished English boom and bust" looked ridiculous as the pride of the Scottish financial market, RBS, collapsed, needing an IMF rescue package to help it stay afloat. With the Euro coming close to collapse, and the oil fund draining faster than it was growing, the 2011 Scottish elections saw the pro-UK parties of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Unionists establish a clear majority in parliament. The new First Secretary has already promised another referendum on rejoining the UK, and has already entered talks with London. Whether David Cameron will be able to agree terms with Alistair Darling remains to be seen.
P.S. Scottish First Secretaries
1987-1990- Gordon Wilson (SNP)
1990-1999- Alex Salmond (SNP)
1999-2000- Donald Dewar (Scottish Labour)
2000-2003- Jim Wallace (Scottish Liberal Democrat)
2003-2011- Alex Salmond (SNP)
2011- Alistair Darling (Scottish Labour)
P.P.S. Scottish Presidents
1987-1991- Margo MacDonald (SNP)
1991-1999- Sean Connery (Independent)
1999-2007- Magnus Magnusson (Independent)
2007- George Galloway (Scottish Socialist Party)
Sunday 18 September 2011
What If... Harold Wilson Was a Spy?
With a new series of Spooks starting tonight, and spy classic Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy grabbing critical accolades, it is with excitement that I heard that John Sessions has been cast to play the lead role in the planned film Harold. The only thing stranger than fiction is the truth.
It defies the mind what Roy Jenkins, then Home Secretary, must have thought in 1975 when Sir Michael Hanley, the Director-General of MI5, came into his office with the huge file and broke the news to him. (Incidentally, being played by Timothy Spall and Richard Griffiths) Harold Wilson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, was a Soviet agent, and had been since 1957. But in retrospect it all made sense. Wilson had made so many trips to the USSR in the late 1950s he was bound to have been affected, while for the KGB this was a priceless opportunity to get an agent into the very top of British politics. Wilson's two attempts to become Labour leader, the second successful, were conducted on the back of orders from Moscow. (Director Oliver Stone is expected to stoke the issue further by hinting that Wilson may have poisoned his predecessor Hugh Gaitskell).
During his time in office in the 1960s, Wilson's dire handling of the economy was of huge benefit to the Soviet Union as it forced the USA to prop it up, while by keeping Britain's large military bases east of Suez a major NATO player was hopelessly overstretched. Wilson's refusal to back the American war in Vietnam also a major boost to the Russians as it allowed them to portray it as American imperialism rather than a principled stand for democracy. It is also telling that MI5 was unable to get on top of the KGB threat during these years.
But things began to change when Wilson was unexpectedly defeated in the 1970 election. His Soviet paymasters were furious with this democratic sloppiness, leading him to become detached and disillusioned with British politics. Meanwhile, MI5 was able to get on top of the threat from Eastern Bloc agents in 1972, when they first uncovered evidence of what was going on. They were steadily gathering evidence against him when he was surprisingly re-elected in 1974. So great was the threat to British security they moved as soon as they could.
Jenkins' first move was to call an emergency cabinet session for that afternoon, then ordered the police to arrest Wilson at Chequers. It would have worked, had the Social Services Secretary, Barbara Castle, not phoned ahead to let Wilson know she suspected Jenkins was trying to oust him. In a dramatic car chase, Wilson managed to reach the Soviet Embassy before the police caught him. A week long siege by police and the Security Service failed to extract Wilson, which produced the amusing sight of senior politicians shouting through megaphones at the Soviet embassy by way of diplomacy. From there, Wilson claimed asylum in the USSR and left to spend the rest of his life in exile.
At home, there was uproar. Labour hurriedly chose Jim Callaghan as its new leader, but the public outrage was so great, and with Labour's backbenchers defecting in droves to the Liberals, Callaghan was forced into calling an immediate election. The revelations had the same effect as the Zinoviev Letter in 1924. Public fury saw Labour reduced to a mere 139 seats, with even Callaghan being defeated. The Conservatives, under new leader Margaret Thatcher, were propelled into office, with 429 seats and a majority of 223. However, Thatcher's recent elevation to her party leadership meant she was forced to turn elsewhere for help. Her predecessor, Edward Heath, became Foreign Secretary, while his trusted deputy Willie Whitelaw became Home Secretary. This was the start of one of the most remarkable and constructive relationships in modern British politics; indeed when Heath and Whitelaw stood down from the Cabinet in 1986 many began to see Thatcher losing her way.
While at first the economy continued to deteriorate, by 1979 the unions had been smashed in the Winter of Discontent, while enough growth had returned to keep Thatcher in power. During the 1980s the government embarked on a radical free market programme which saw many of Britain's state owned industries sold off, while the NHS and school system was exposed to a lot of external influences. But not even the total discrediting of Labour could allow Thatcher to go all the way; her attempts to abolish student grants and introduce a poll tax led to her resignation in 1989, with successor Douglas Hurd moving the Tories back towards the centre ground.
For Labour, the trauma of 1975 was to haunt it for several generations. The third leader of 1975 was Michael Foot, who by 1979 had managed to restore the prestige of the party to some extent, especially amongst left-wing voters. However, the continuation of this rehabilitation under Peter Shore was interrupted in 1984, when Tony Benn managed to be elected leader, arguing that the public could distinguish between the party's past mistakes and a promise of a socialist future; judging by the 1987 election result, he was wildly wrong. It would not be until 1996 that Labour would be trusted with power again, with new Prime Minister Tony Blair promising to be "purer than pure".
P.S. Prime Ministers
Harold Wilson- 1964-1970
Ted Heath- 1970-1974
Harold Wilson- 1974-1975
Jim Callaghan-1975
Margaret Thatcher- 1975-1989
Douglas Hurd- 1989-1996
Tony Blair- 1996-2006
Gordon Brown- 2006-2008
David Cameron- 2008-
Labour Leaders
Harold Wilson- 1963-1975
Jim Callaghan- 1975
Michael Foot- 1975-1979
Peter Shore- 1979-1984
Tony Benn- 1984-1987
John Smith- 1987-1994
Tony Blair- 1994-2006
Gordon Brown- 2006-2008
Alan Johnson- 2008-
Conservative Leaders
Margaret Thatcher- 1975-1989
Douglas Hurd- 1989-1996
William Hague- 1996-2000
Michael Portillo- 2000-2005
David Cameron- 2005-
Saturday 17 September 2011
What If... Eagle Claw Succeeded?
The recent ceremonies to commemorate the 10th anniversary of 9/11 has inevitably drawn mentions of the raid earlier this year which brought the hunt for 9/11's mastermind, Osama Bin Laden, to a dramatic end. Some commentators are even calling the raid 'the new Eagle Claw.'
For those who don't follow recent American history, or have somehow avoided the endless TV documentaries and dramas, Operation Eagle Claw was the 1980 special forces mission which rescued the 52 hostages held by Iranian revolutionaries at the US embassy in Tehran. Although almost scuppered by a helicopter fault, the sheer bravery and determination of the Delta Force operatives meant that no hostages were killed in the rescue, and only a single Delta operative was lost. The early arrogance of the Iranian Islamic revolutionaries was severely blunted by this setback.
The rescue was immediately felt in the United States, boosting the flagging poll ratings of President Jimmy Carter. With the immediate threat to US interests diminished, Carter was able to leave the White House situation room and hit the campaign trail in an election year. As well as Eagle Claw, Carter could point to the Camp David Accords and the Panama Treaty, as well as improved relations with the USSR. Compared to these achievements, his Republican adversary, Ronald Reagan, looked like a lightweight: "There you go again," was his only effective reply to Carter's listing of his achievements. However, the terrible state of the economy meant that, in both the popular vote and the electoral college, Carter only just scraped home in November 1980. No matter, it was enough.
Using his new mandate, Carter set about his next term. On the domestic front, his economic policies helped to drag the US economy out of its 1970s stagflation, without resorting to government cutbacks as advocated by the Republicans. Neither did he succumb to the temptation to vastly increase public borrowing to fund the federal government, as the Republicans had been accused of planning. His pledge to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil led to investments in sci-fi-esque technologies such as solar power and wind turbines; their true significance would not be realised until into the next decade.
But it is in foreign affairs that carter really made his mark. His 1982 Conference on the Middle East led to the creation of a state of Palestine based upon the 1967 borders; it is said that Yasser Arafat kept the picture of Carter signing the Atlanta Accords above his desk for the rest of his life. Although tensions continued to flare between Palestine and Israel, this marked a real turning point. The subsequent decision by the PLO to renounce violence also saw a marked decrease in international terrorism. Always reluctant to use force, Carter's administration imposed sanctions against Iran and Libya instead of sending in the Air Force. His principled stand against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan helped him to shore up NATO, while at the same he kept open contacts with Moscow, helping to guide the Western alliance through a period when the leadership of the USSR was almost paralysed, and the prospect of blundering into a nuclear war was very real. But things weren't all rosy; Carter's ideological gulf from the British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, plus their blazing rows over the Falklands dispute, effectively ended the Special Relationship.
When he left office in 1985, Jimmy Carter had the highest approval ratings of any outgoing US President. His successor was Teddy Kennedy, elected in the Democratic landslide of 1984. Kennedy managed to achieve his lifetime goal of universal, free at the point of use healthcare in the US, but at the cost of almost all his political will and capital. In 1988 the Republicans seized back the Presidency, with George Bush senior assuring the electorate he wouldn't raise taxes to pay for Medicover.
Bush also proved to be a one term President thanks to his incompetence and economic woes. Under Bill Clinton, the USA finally lived up to carter's dream in the mid 1990s by taking the lead role in the Kyoto Climate Pact. Not even the global-warming sceptic George W Bush junior was able to completely reverse this landmark treaty.
Carter's legacy will be felt more keenly than ever in the coming months, as Barrack Obama has confirmed that Carter's Executive Order on the treatment of prisoners and their right to a trial will be upheld even for America's most reviled prisoner: Osama Bin Laden himself.
P.S. US Presidents
1977-1985- Jimmy Carter
1985-1989- Teddy Kennedy
1989-1993- George HW Bush
1993-2001- Bill Clinton
2001-2009- George W Bush
2009- Barrack Obama
Monday 5 September 2011
What If... The Tories Opposed Iraq?
The 2002 Conservative Party conference will hardly go down in history as one of Britain's greatest political events. If anything, it will be remembered for Theresa May's labelling of the party as "the nasty party." However, a fringe speech by veteran Tory Ken Clarke should also be recalled. In this, Clarke warned listeners that "Many Conservatives take the view that they want something very much more ordered than this. They are not just signing up to a march on Baghdad, a change of regime without a wider coalition or some supporting body of legality."
This was a direct swipe at floundering leader Iain Duncan Smith, who had publicly backed Tony Blair's slow moves towards invading Iraq to disarm Saddam Hussein of his 'Weapons of Mass Destruction.' At first little changed; the official Conservative line remained in favour of the war. However, in early 2003, when the depth of opposition to the war became clear, both within the country and within the Tory Party, Duncan Smith began to change his mind. As the messages from the party began to change, urging Blair to get a UN Resolution to justify the attack, senior Tories began to appear at anti-war rallies and marches around the country, culminating in the appearance of Iain Duncan Smith next to Tony Benn, Charles Kennedy, Banksy, Kate Moss and Bianca Jagger at the huge anti-war rally in February 2003.
Alas, it was all to prove in vain, as Blair won the backing of the Commons and went to war anyway, even without the support of the UN. As the weapons of mass destruction didn't show up, and the country descended into violent chaos, the Conservatives pulled ahead of labour in the opinion polls. This was boosted late in 2003 when Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader following doubts over his appeal.
Under Howard, the Conservative party adopted a distinctive line on Iraq; while it supported the Army now it had gone in, Blair had lied to the country over the danger posed. This was very in tune with the public mood, and as the 2005 election approached Blair's government began to flounder, with the introduction of higher university fees only just scraping through parliament, the Hutton Inquiry discrediting the case for war in 2003 and the controversial anti fox hunting laws being passed; the only glimmer of light was Ken Livingstone's narrow re-election as Mayor of London.
But as the 2005 election approached, it became obvious that it was going to be close. Eight years of Labour had not removed the memory of 18 years on Tory rule in many people's minds. Howard's campaign centred around a return to a sort of Thatcherite-light party, with lower taxes and less bureaucracy. This, combined with the opposition to Iraq, helped to deliver the UK's first elected hung parliament since 1974, with the Tories taking 283 seats to Labour's 271; the Liberal Democrats also benefited from an anti-Iraq surge to take 62 seats.
Howard formed a minority government, with a view to going back to the country once his 'priority list' of actions was complete. So by Sept 2006 when he called a new poll, he could point to the cutting of red tape in the police, schools and hospitals, while immigration controls had been tightened and tuition fees scrapped, replaced by interest on maintenance loans. The result was a Conservative majority of 48. Labour, still reeling from the defeat of 2005, had ousted Blair and replaced him with Gordon Brown, but this did little to save the party; it dropped to 168 seats and 23.3% of the vote, only 0.2% ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who increased their tally to 91 MPs.
Unfortunately for Howard, his political honeymoon didn't last very long. By mid-2007, the global financial crisis which defined his premiership was underway, with Chancellor Oliver Letwin and Trade and Industry Secretary John Redwood taking a very hands-off approach to the problem; the result was the near collapse of the UK banking sector. The substantial cuts in public spending, along with large rises in taxation, which was the government's response to the crisis, helped further alienate the government and tip the economy over the edge. The privatisation of the Royal Mail led to a chaos which reminded many of the privatisation of the railways under John Major. When it became clear that the interest from student loans would not cover the cost of courses, fees were reintroduced at the eye-wateringly high level of £8500. The ending of the hunting ban did little good except outside core Tory supporters. Iain Duncan Smith's attempts to reform the welfare system, while sensible, were enacted at the worst possible moment. Unemployment rose as productivity nosedived. To cap the economic woes, the close ties between Culture, Media and Sport Secretary David Cameron and News International proved toxic as a scandal over tabloid phone hacking reached the very heart of government. By 2011, Howard had stood down in favour of William Hague, his Defence Secretary, but other than some progress in environment areas and welfare, the Tories had little to show for their six years in government. They had failed to learn the lesson of 1997, that to appeal they had to modernise.
Against them, Labour pitted Alan Johnson, a former trade-unionist who was easy going and popular with the public. Johnson was much more ruthless than he appeared in public, as he managed to take Labour back to the left and replace much of his front bench team. His promises to grow Britain out of recession, rather than simply cut its way out, struck a chord with a public already tired of five years of public sector cuts, while Chancellor Oliver Letwin was pilloried in the press for failing to hold the banks to account for their role in derailing the economy. But when the election of 2011 came, it was not quite enough. Labour took 301 seats to Hague's 225, and it looked like another minority government.
To everyone's utter amazement, Johnson managed to negotiate a deal with the Liberal Democrats, creating the UK's first coalition government since the Second World War. Standing on the steps of Number 10 with his new deputy, Nick Clegg, Johnson hailed the new arrangement as "the healing of the progressive divide in Britain." With new policies on the table including renationalising the railways and postal services, keeping one bank in public ownership, increased public spending to beat the downturn, the replacement of the House of Lords with an elected chamber, an English Assembly and maybe even changes on how Westminster MPs are elected, the coalition looks set to do just that.
Prime Minister- Michael Howard
Deputy PM, First Secretary of State and Minister for Constitutional Affairs- Michael Ancram
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Oliver Letwin
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- David Davis
Defence Secretary- William Hague
Education Secretary- Tim Collins
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Transport Secretary- Tim Yeo
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Redwood
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Caroline Spelman
Local Government and the Regions Secretary- Eric Pickles
International Development Secretary- Alan Duncan
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- David Cameron
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Families and Equality Secretary- Theresa May
Scottish Secretary- Lord Strathclyde
Welsh Secretary- Bill Wiggin
Northern Ireland Secretary- David Lidington
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- George Osborne
Attorney General- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Liam Fox (Chairman of the Conservative Party)
Lord Chancellor- Lord Kingsland
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir George Young
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Heseltine
Olympics Minister- Lord Coe
P.P.S. Lib-Lab Cabinet, 2011
Prime Minister- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Deputy PM, Lord President of the Council and Minister for Political Reform- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State- David Miliband (Lab)
Home Secretary- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Defence Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Health Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Transport Secretary- Norman Baker (Lib Dem)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Sadiq Kahn (Lab)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary- John Cruddas (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Climate Change Secretary- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Danny Alexander (Lib Dem)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Lab)
Northern Ireland Secretary- Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Alistair Darling (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Tony Lloyd (Chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party)
Lord Privy Seal- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader)
Leaders of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman (Lab) and Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
Leaders of the House of Lords- Baroness Royall (Lab) and Lord Ashdown (Lib Dem)
Universities Minister- Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem)
Monday 29 August 2011
What If... Callaghan Quit Right Away?
As the results flowed in from the May 1979 general election, it was clear that Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party had beaten James Callaghan and his exhausted Labour government. Shortly after Mrs Thatcher appeared on the steps of No. 10 'quoting' St Francis of Assisi, Callaghan announced his resignation as leader of the Labour party, saying that a new leader was needed "to carry the fight into the 1980s." There had been rumours that he planned to hang onto the job, but in the face of the largest swing since 1945 it is hard to see how he could have carried on.
His resignation also had the benefit of catching the far-left elements within his party on the hop. They had been planning to use the conference in autumn 1979 to denounce the parliamentary party and push their ideas of greater internal democracy and a more radical socialist agenda. Instead, the conference was to mark the coronation of a new leader. And there was little doubt as to who this new leader would be. Denis Healey, the Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1974-1979, was Labour's biggest personality, a centrist very popular with the public. Against him, Peter Shore didn't stand a chance amongst MPs, getting 115 votes to Healey's 150. Left wingers were furious.
In his first address as leader, Healey made an impassioned plea for his party to unite to "face the real evil of Thatcher's 'sado-monetarism'." By keeping Michael Foot as his deputy, and promoting Shore to a senior Shadow Cabinet post, Healey proved that he was willing to give the left a role in the party.
But for many, especially left wing activists, this wasn't enough. With their figurehead of Tony Benn, they began to plot their next move. When they failed to get their hard left policies adopted by the party, many of them broke away and formed a new party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) led by Benn. On Labour's other wing, the veteran Roy Jenkins moved to the Liberals. It seemed as if Labour was finished.
But not quite. Luckily for Healey, the majority of his party heeded the call of the Shadow Chancellor, David Owen, for Labour moderates to stay faithful. Shirley Williams led the attack on the SDP, warning it had no soul and no established principles. Crucially, Healey's assertion that, when offered extreme socialism, the public wouldn't want it, was proved to be right. Even as left-wingers rejoiced, the SDP failed to harm Labour in by-elections or the opinion polls. The departure of so many on the radical left also saved Healey the potentially painful fight to expel them.
As Mrs Thatcher's economic policies plunged the country into the abyss and her popularity plummeted, Healey went from strength to strength, riding high in the opinion polls and taking Crosby and Glasgow Hillhead from the Tories at by-elections. Not even the Falklands War could rescue Thatcher; a by-election in rock solid Tory Beaconsfield saw Labour's Tony Blair propelled into office even as the fighting raged. Despite retaking the islands, by 1983 the Conservatives had very little positive to show for their time in office. The election in that year saw Thatcher's majority cut to one; only a feeble economic recovery and the 2.5% taken by the SDP prevented Healey from winning. For the SDP the election was a disaster, with only 4 MPs surviving, and Michael Foot blasting their manifesto as "The longest suicide note in history." Benn lost his Bristol seat to the official Labour candidate, and his party slid into irrelevance.
Another election was clearly on the cards, and it was triggered by the attempt of Mrs Thatcher to silence her critic Ken Livingstone, the leader of the Greater London Council. The Bill to abolish the body was defeated in the Commons when some Tory MPs, including her arch-rival Michael Heseltine, voted against her, thus triggering a general election. In the ensuing election, Labour took 348 seats to Thatcher's 262, giving them an overall majority of 46. The SDP was wiped out, and suffered the fate of most far-left groups when it collapsed six months later.
Healey's 'new' Labour approach, which accepted the role of the free market but attempted to tame and direct it into helping the disadvantaged, proved very popular with a nation reeling from six years of Thatcherism. Economic growth slowly returned as the economy was rebalanced, while the plans for wide scale privatisation were shelved. In foreign policy, Healey was able to take much of the credit in helping to thaw the Cold War, which under Thatcher had veered at times towards nuclear war. However, the special relationship with the USA did not survive the gulf between Healey and President Reagan, so instead Britain turned to the EEC as its main ally.
After two years at the helm as PM, Healey retired on his 70th birthday, with Labour electing Shirley Williams as leader and therefore second ever female Prime Minister. Together they are remembered for the golden years of Labour rule until Ken Clarke brought the Tories back to power in 1999, albeit by promising never to return the country to its dark, free market days.
P.S. Healey Cabinet, 1985
Prime Minister- Denis Healey
Chancellor of the Exchequer- David Owen
Foreign Secretary- Shirley Williams
Home Secretary- Peter Shore
Defence Secretary- Bill Rodgers
Education Secretary- Neil Kinnock
Health and Social Security Secretary- John Smith
Trade and Industry Secretary- Roy Hattersley
Environment Secretary- Edmund Dell
Transport Secretary- Albert Booth
Employment Secretary- Gerald Kaufman
Energy Secretary- John Cartwright
Scottish Secretary- Robert Maclennan
Welsh Secretary- Ann Clwyd
Northern Irish Secretary- Tom Pendry
Leader of the House of Commons- Stan Orme
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Cledwyn Hughes
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- George Robertson
Saturday 27 August 2011
Complaining Customer
I went to the sports centre on Thursday night to play badminton and short tennis with Network, and apparently managed to enrage the woman on the next court. her complaining was priceless:
Woman- "Excuse me, but I'm going to have to ask you to stop playing short tennis on that court, you're disrupting us and it frankly isn't safe."
Me- "Oh I'm really sorry, we'll be more careful with our serves in future, would it help if we swapped sides?"
Woman- "No, I'd prefer it if you stopped completely. That ball you're using is unsafe."
Me- "Well, it is safe really, it is a soft ball..."
Woman- "Look, if you're going to be like that, I shall have to complain to the centre manager."
Me- "I've actually already spoken to him, he told us it was OK to use it."
Woman- "Oh dear, well that is disappointing... I think that's a bad reflection on the staff, don't you?"
Me (in a moment of brilliance)- "I AM a member of staff at this centre."
Woman- "Well... I... Can you just stop playing?"
I finally agreed to do so, but when I went back to play badminton instead, it turned out the whole thing was so her children could play on my court for free... That didn't go down well...
Finally...
Finally, an intelligent response to the movement of history towards an "Our Island Story", boy's own-esque version of the subject:
It's just a pity there's no decent suggestion of what to replace it with... Any ideas?
Wednesday 17 August 2011
What If... Ramsay MacDonald Refused to Serve?
The setting is January 1924. King George V has just sent a messenger to the Labour Party, asking them if they will form the next government, following the inconclusive election of December 1923. For the first time ever, a socialist party in Britain has come within sight of power. Yet at the last possible second, Labour blinked. Senior figures within the party couldn't agree on whether or not to take power, or if they did whether or not to try and implement a radical socialist agenda. MacDonald, unwilling to commit political suicide by leading a weak minority government, declined.
While it hardly seemed it at the time, this decision put an end to the meteoric rise of Labour as the new force in British politics. For it allowed the return of veteran Liberal Herbert Asquith to the premiership, and although his government only lasted 10 months, the symbolism was clear. The Liberals were the only real alternative to the Conservatives, and Labour didn't have the stomach for office. In the October 1924 election, Labour were pushed into third place, with the Liberals gaining seats and votes despite losing overall.
By relegating Labour to third place, the Liberal party was saved when many thought it had teetered on the brink of collapse. Instead it went on to boast many of the great political men of the twentieth century. The landslides of Archibald Sinclair and Jo Grimmond in 1945, 1950 and 1955 ushered in the public health insurance and decent welfare programme which remains the envy of the world, while Harold Wilson in the 1960s presided over a series of groundbreaking social reforms. However, his inability to tame the trade unions would cost him the premiership in 1969. Perhaps the most fondly remembered Liberal PM of them all, Michael Foot, was one of the greatest orators of his generation, while his successor David Steel was the youngest Prime Minister of the century. Paddy Ashdown and Anthony Blair in the 1990s and 2000s kept Britain on a staunchly pro-European foreign policy line, most notably by bringing in the Euro and distancing the UK from the United States.
But it wasn't just Prime Ministers the Liberal Party threw up. Other great men were Anthony Benn, Chancellor in the 1970s and pioneer of the co-operatives which dominate British industry, while David Owen will be remembered as one of the more colourful Health Secretaries in recent times. Shirley Williams is also held dear in the public mind, although her leadership of the party in the early 1980s was not its most successful phase. And the appearance of the Chancellor Charles Kennedy on Have I Got News For You as guest host meant that the criticisms over his Budgets never really stuck. However it produced its fair share of bores too; Paddy Ashdown drifting off during the 1991 conference speech by his Welfare Secretary John Major is the stuff of political comedy.
The survival of the Liberal Party also had a profound impact on the Conservatives. Headed as they were by an ex-Liberal in Winston Churchill, the party stuck to a broadly liberal agenda in order not to frighten voters, with leaders such as Rab Butler, Iain Macleod and Reginald Maudling being from the left of the party. At times the free market wing of the party did try and take over, such as when Enoch Powell ran to be leader in 1970 following the death of Macleod, only losing narrowly. However, the Powellites were never all powerful, and in 1983 the victorious Prime Minister Francis Pym dealt with their new figurehead, his firebrand Industry Secretary Margaret Thatcher, sacking her from Cabinet. Not until her protege William Hague became leader in 2004 would the Conservatives veer to the right again.
As for Labour, it entered a long period on the fringes of British politics, providing a useful home for those who were too socialist for the Liberals, or those who had risen from the very bottom of British society into politics. From time to time they managed to have some influence, such as during the Wartime Coalition, or when Denis Healey helped to prop up the minority government of David Steel in the mid 1970s. However, the 1980s and 1990s saw the party undergo a mini-revival, with Jack Straw, David Davis and then David Miliband increasing the number of MPs on a radical democratic socialist agenda. Under Miliband, the party came to play a central role in politics following the defeat of Hague's government in the 2011 election, when he became Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Nick Clegg in the Lib-Lab pact. However, Clegg has made it clear some Labour measures are beyond the pale; "There can be no question of nationalising the hospitals, people are happy with the Health Assistance Service as it is" he maintained.
P.S. Prime Ministers, 1924-2011
1924- Herbert Asquith (Lib)
1924-1929- Stanley Baldwin (Con)
1929-1931- David Lloyd George (Lib)
1931-1935- David Lloyd George (Nat Lib)
1935-1938- Stanley Baldwin (Nat Con)
1938-1940- Neville Chamberlain (Nat Con)
1940-1945- Winston Churchill (Coal Con)
1945-1952- Archibald Sinclair (Lib)
1952-1959- Jo Grimond (Lib)
1959-1964- Rab Butler (Con)
1964-1969- Harold Wilson (Lib)
1969-1970- Iain Macleod (Con)
1970-1973- Reginald Maudling (Con)
1973-1976- Michael Foot (Lib)
1976-1978- David Steel (Lib, with Lab support)
1978-1985- Francis Pym (Con)
1985-1991- Michael Heseltine (Con)
1991-1999- Paddy Ashdown (Lib)
1999-2007- Anthony Blair (Lib)
2007-2011- William Hague (Con)
2011- Nick Clegg (Lib-Lab Coal)
P.P.S. Labour Leaders, 1924-2011
1924-1929- Ramsay MacDonald
1929-1935- Arthur Henderson
1935-1946- Clement Attlee
1946-1955- Herbert Morrison
1955-1963- Hugh Gaitskell
1963-1969- George Brown
1969-1978- Denis Healey
1978-1984- Stan Orme
1984-1991- Neil Kinnock
1991-1999- Jack Straw
1999-2008- David Davis
2008-2011- David Miliband
Tuesday 2 August 2011
GP's Receptionists
A genuine exchange over the phone between me and my GP's surgery:
Operator: Can you confirm your name, date of birth and first line of your address please?
Me: Details here...
O: Ok Mr Murphy, what can we do for you?
M: Can I have an appointment with Dr Heatley please?
O: Oh, dear, um, you're only down as a temporary resident on the screen, you'll need to come in and fill out a form so we can put you back on the screen.
M: Um... ok... didn't you say I was on the screen?
O: Yes, but you're not there as well.
I appear to be suffering an existential crisis...
Sunday 24 July 2011
What If... The IRA Were Lucky the Second Time?
It is still an event which invokes a great deal of emotion. The images of Number 10 Downing Street reduced to rubble are chilling even today, as one by one the bodies were stretchered down one of the most famous streets in the world. On 7th February 1991, John Major, barely three months into his premiership, held a meeting of his war Cabinet to discuss the situation in the Persian Gulf. As the meeting was breaking up, three mortar bombs, fired by the IRA from a van parked a few streets away, ploughed into the building, killing scores of people. In its triumphal statement, the IRA boasted "Today was our lucky day, today the luck of Britain ran out."
John Major became only the second ever Prime Minister to be assassinated, cutting short his life and creating one of the greatest 'What Ifs' of modern British politics. There have been those who argue that, under Major's leadership, the Conservative Party would not have been as divided as it proved to be in the 1990s, possibly avoiding such a heavy defeat at the hands of Labour in 1995. But since he was Prime Minister for so little time, we simply cannot be sure how he would have fared.
Also dead were his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont, as well as the Defence Secretary, the Energy Secretary and the Attorney General. The Foreign Secretary, Trade and Industry Secretary and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury were all badly injured. Ken Baker, the Home Secretary, stepped in as acting Prime Minister.
The incident shook British public life, especially as British troops prepared to go to war in the Gulf. For the Conservative Party, the most pressing issue was to choose a new leader, the third in four months. Despite calls from some zealous backbenchers, there was little appetite for the return of the recently ousted Margaret Thatcher, who held back from entering the leadership contest. Her arch-enemy, Michael Heseltine, was also out of the question due to the divisive part he had played then. Douglas Hurd, the other participant in the November leadership election, was too badly injured to stand. Instead, Party Chairman Chris Patten stood against the Employment Secretary Michael Howard. Patten won comfortably, and on February 23rd 1991 became Prime Minister.
Patten's first priority was to soothe his traumatised party. The large number of casualties meant a Cabinet reshuffle was inevitable. Patten tried to minimise disruption by keeping as many ministers as possible, or moving people to roles they knew or could easily adapt to. Some new faces appeared, and Lord Whitelaw was persuaded to come out of retirement to act as Party Chairman to help steer the party into the next election; with three Prime Ministers in four months, it was widely felt that an election could not be delayed long.
Policy-wise, Patten and his team got off to a good start. They resisted calls from the Conservative right for a major anti-IRA crackdown, believing that this would simply play into the IRA's hands. Instead, security in Northern Ireland was increased but not excessively, while the Northern Ireland Secretary made a renewed effort to engage the political parties in power sharing talks. Back at home, and to widespread surprise, Patten announced the dropping of the Poll Tax he had introduced while a minister under Thatcher, earning her enmity by saying he'd always hated the idea.
With a new team and fresh ideas energising the party, and a solid British performance in the Gulf War, in September 1991 Patten called an election for the following month. Despite all the opinion polls pointing to a narrow Labour victory or a hung parliament at best, Patten's barnstorming campaign attacking the prospect of higher taxes brought the Tories a record fourth election victory. Despite only clinging onto his Bath seat by 21 votes, nationally the Conservative Party got 14 million votes, another record. However, Britain's First Past the Post system translated this into a vastly reduced overall majority of 15 seats, but no matter; Chris Patten had done it.
Backed by this overwhelming popular mandate, and displaying tough negotiating skills, Patten was able to extract a good deal for Britain in the Maastricht Treaty in the winter of 1991. But from then on in the honeymoon was over and his troubles multiplied. The 1991-95 parliament saw Europe tear the Conservative Party apart, with Patten struggling to get the Maastricht Treaty through Parliament, sacrificing much of his political credibility to do so. Many Tory members were hounded in the press over accusations of sleaze, while in September 1992 Black Wednesday shredded the Tories' claim to economic competence. Despite the new Chancellor, Ken Clarke, presiding over a strong economic recovery from 1993-1995, 16 years of Conservative rule were brought to an end on 1st September 1995, when the youthful new Labour leader Tony Blair secured a crushing 131 seat majority, reducing the Conservatives to a mere 188 seats. In Wales and Scotland the party was reduced to a mere three MPs. One of the high profile losses was Ken Clarke himself, toppled in the much vaunted "Clarke moment" which became the story of the election. Patten immediately resigned as Tory leader, leaving new leader Michael Portillo facing the long climb back to power.
P.S. Conservative Cabinet, February 1991
Prime Minister- Chris Patten
Chancellor of the Exchequer- John MacGregor
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- Ken Baker
Defence Secretary- Malcom Rifkind
Education Secretary- Michael Heseltine
Health Secretary- Stephen Dorrel
Trade and Industry Secretary- David Hunt
Environment Secretary- William Waldegrave
Transport Secretary- George Young
Employment Secretary- Michael Howard
Social Security Secretary- Gillian Shepard
Energy Secretary- Ian Lang
Scottish Secretary- Michael Forsyth
Welsh Secretary- Douglas Hogg
Northern Ireland Secretary- Peter Brooke
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons- Tony Newton
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Lord Whitelaw
Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Waddington
Lord Chancellor- Lord Mackay
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Michael Portillo
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- John Gummer
Attorney General- Sir Nicholas Lyell
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