Monday 5 September 2011

What If... The Tories Opposed Iraq?

The 2002 Conservative Party conference will hardly go down in history as one of Britain's greatest political events. If anything, it will be remembered for Theresa May's labelling of the party as "the nasty party." However, a fringe speech by veteran Tory Ken Clarke should also be recalled. In this, Clarke warned listeners that "Many Conservatives take the view that they want something very much more ordered than this. They are not just signing up to a march on Baghdad, a change of regime without a wider coalition or some supporting body of legality."
This was a direct swipe at floundering leader Iain Duncan Smith, who had publicly backed Tony Blair's slow moves towards invading Iraq to disarm Saddam Hussein of his 'Weapons of Mass Destruction.' At first little changed; the official Conservative line remained in favour of the war. However, in early 2003, when the depth of opposition to the war became clear, both within the country and within the Tory Party, Duncan Smith began to change his mind. As the messages from the party began to change, urging Blair to get a UN Resolution to justify the attack, senior Tories began to appear at anti-war rallies and marches around the country, culminating in the appearance of Iain Duncan Smith next to Tony Benn, Charles Kennedy, Banksy, Kate Moss and Bianca Jagger at the huge anti-war rally in February 2003.
Alas, it was all to prove in vain, as Blair won the backing of the Commons and went to war anyway, even without the support of the UN. As the weapons of mass destruction didn't show up, and the country descended into violent chaos, the Conservatives pulled ahead of labour in the opinion polls. This was boosted late in 2003 when Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader following doubts over his appeal.
Under Howard, the Conservative party adopted a distinctive line on Iraq; while it supported the Army now it had gone in, Blair had lied to the country over the danger posed. This was very in tune with the public mood, and as the 2005 election approached Blair's government began to flounder, with the introduction of higher university fees only just scraping through parliament, the Hutton Inquiry discrediting the case for war in 2003 and the controversial anti fox hunting laws being passed; the only glimmer of light was Ken Livingstone's narrow re-election as Mayor of London.
But as the 2005 election approached, it became obvious that it was going to be close. Eight years of Labour had not removed the memory of 18 years on Tory rule in many people's minds. Howard's campaign centred around a return to a sort of Thatcherite-light party, with lower taxes and less bureaucracy. This, combined with the opposition to Iraq, helped to deliver the UK's first elected hung parliament since 1974, with the Tories taking 283 seats to Labour's 271; the Liberal Democrats also benefited from an anti-Iraq surge to take 62 seats.
Howard formed a minority government, with a view to going back to the country once his 'priority list' of actions was complete. So by Sept 2006 when he called a new poll, he could point to the cutting of red tape in the police, schools and hospitals, while immigration controls had been tightened and tuition fees scrapped, replaced by interest on maintenance loans. The result was a Conservative majority of 48. Labour, still reeling from the defeat of 2005, had ousted Blair and replaced him with Gordon Brown, but this did little to save the party; it dropped to 168 seats and 23.3% of the vote, only 0.2% ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who increased their tally to 91 MPs.
Unfortunately for Howard, his political honeymoon didn't last very long. By mid-2007, the global financial crisis which defined his premiership was underway, with Chancellor Oliver Letwin and Trade and Industry Secretary John Redwood taking a very hands-off approach to the problem; the result was the near collapse of the UK banking sector. The substantial cuts in public spending, along with large rises in taxation, which was the government's response to the crisis, helped further alienate the government and tip the economy over the edge. The privatisation of the Royal Mail led to a chaos which reminded many of the privatisation of the railways under John Major. When it became clear that the interest from student loans would not cover the cost of courses, fees were reintroduced at the eye-wateringly high level of £8500. The ending of the hunting ban did little good except outside core Tory supporters. Iain Duncan Smith's attempts to reform the welfare system, while sensible, were enacted at the worst possible moment. Unemployment rose as productivity nosedived. To cap the economic woes, the close ties between Culture, Media and Sport Secretary David Cameron and News International proved toxic as a scandal over tabloid phone hacking reached the very heart of government. By 2011, Howard had stood down in favour of William Hague, his Defence Secretary, but other than some progress in environment areas and welfare, the Tories had little to show for their six years in government. They had failed to learn the lesson of 1997, that to appeal they had to modernise.
Against them, Labour pitted Alan Johnson, a former trade-unionist who was easy going and popular with the public. Johnson was much more ruthless than he appeared in public, as he managed to take Labour back to the left and replace much of his front bench team. His promises to grow Britain out of recession, rather than simply cut its way out, struck a chord with a public already tired of five years of public sector cuts, while Chancellor Oliver Letwin was pilloried in the press for failing to hold the banks to account for their role in derailing the economy. But when the election of 2011 came, it was not quite enough. Labour took 301 seats to Hague's 225, and it looked like another minority government.
To everyone's utter amazement, Johnson managed to negotiate a deal with the Liberal Democrats, creating the UK's first coalition government since the Second World War. Standing on the steps of Number 10 with his new deputy, Nick Clegg, Johnson hailed the new arrangement as "the healing of the progressive divide in Britain." With new policies on the table including renationalising the railways and postal services, keeping one bank in public ownership, increased public spending to beat the downturn, the replacement of the House of Lords with an elected chamber, an English Assembly and maybe even changes on how Westminster MPs are elected, the coalition looks set to do just that.

P.S. Howard Cabinet, 2005

Prime Minister- Michael Howard
Deputy PM, First Secretary of State and Minister for Constitutional Affairs- Michael Ancram
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Oliver Letwin
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- David Davis
Defence Secretary- William Hague
Education Secretary- Tim Collins
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Transport Secretary- Tim Yeo
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Redwood
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Caroline Spelman
Local Government and the Regions Secretary- Eric Pickles
International Development Secretary- Alan Duncan
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- David Cameron
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Families and Equality Secretary- Theresa May
Scottish Secretary- Lord Strathclyde
Welsh Secretary- Bill Wiggin
Northern Ireland Secretary- David Lidington
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- George Osborne
Attorney General- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Liam Fox (Chairman of the Conservative Party)
Lord Chancellor- Lord Kingsland
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir George Young
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Heseltine
Olympics Minister- Lord Coe

P.P.S. Lib-Lab Cabinet, 2011

Prime Minister- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Deputy PM, Lord President of the Council and Minister for Political Reform- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State- David Miliband (Lab)
Home Secretary- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Defence Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Health Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Transport Secretary- Norman Baker (Lib Dem)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Sadiq Kahn (Lab)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary- John Cruddas (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Climate Change Secretary- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Danny Alexander (Lib Dem)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Lab)
Northern Ireland Secretary- Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Alistair Darling (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Tony Lloyd (Chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party)
Lord Privy Seal- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader)
Leaders of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman (Lab) and Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
Leaders of the House of Lords- Baroness Royall (Lab) and Lord Ashdown (Lib Dem)
Universities Minister- Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem)

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