Saturday 17 September 2011

What If... Eagle Claw Succeeded?

The recent ceremonies to commemorate the 10th anniversary of 9/11 has inevitably drawn mentions of the raid earlier this year which brought the hunt for 9/11's mastermind, Osama Bin Laden, to a dramatic end. Some commentators are even calling the raid 'the new Eagle Claw.'

For those who don't follow recent American history, or have somehow avoided the endless TV documentaries and dramas, Operation Eagle Claw was the 1980 special forces mission which rescued the 52 hostages held by Iranian revolutionaries at the US embassy in Tehran. Although almost scuppered by a helicopter fault, the sheer bravery and determination of the Delta Force operatives meant that no hostages were killed in the rescue, and only a single Delta operative was lost. The early arrogance of the Iranian Islamic revolutionaries was severely blunted by this setback.

The rescue was immediately felt in the United States, boosting the flagging poll ratings of President Jimmy Carter. With the immediate threat to US interests diminished, Carter was able to leave the White House situation room and hit the campaign trail in an election year. As well as Eagle Claw, Carter could point to the Camp David Accords and the Panama Treaty, as well as improved relations with the USSR. Compared to these achievements, his Republican adversary, Ronald Reagan, looked like a lightweight: "There you go again," was his only effective reply to Carter's listing of his achievements. However, the terrible state of the economy meant that, in both the popular vote and the electoral college, Carter only just scraped home in November 1980. No matter, it was enough.

Using his new mandate, Carter set about his next term. On the domestic front, his economic policies helped to drag the US economy out of its 1970s stagflation, without resorting to government cutbacks as advocated by the Republicans. Neither did he succumb to the temptation to vastly increase public borrowing to fund the federal government, as the Republicans had been accused of planning. His pledge to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil led to investments in sci-fi-esque technologies such as solar power and wind turbines; their true significance would not be realised until into the next decade.

But it is in foreign affairs that carter really made his mark. His 1982 Conference on the Middle East led to the creation of a state of Palestine based upon the 1967 borders; it is said that Yasser Arafat kept the picture of Carter signing the Atlanta Accords above his desk for the rest of his life. Although tensions continued to flare between Palestine and Israel, this marked a real turning point. The subsequent decision by the PLO to renounce violence also saw a marked decrease in international terrorism. Always reluctant to use force, Carter's administration imposed sanctions against Iran and Libya instead of sending in the Air Force. His principled stand against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan helped him to shore up NATO, while at the same he kept open contacts with Moscow, helping to guide the Western alliance through a period when the leadership of the USSR was almost paralysed, and the prospect of blundering into a nuclear war was very real. But things weren't all rosy; Carter's ideological gulf from the British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, plus their blazing rows over the Falklands dispute, effectively ended the Special Relationship.

When he left office in 1985, Jimmy Carter had the highest approval ratings of any outgoing US President. His successor was Teddy Kennedy, elected in the Democratic landslide of 1984. Kennedy managed to achieve his lifetime goal of universal, free at the point of use healthcare in the US, but at the cost of almost all his political will and capital. In 1988 the Republicans seized back the Presidency, with George Bush senior assuring the electorate he wouldn't raise taxes to pay for Medicover.

Bush also proved to be a one term President thanks to his incompetence and economic woes. Under Bill Clinton, the USA finally lived up to carter's dream in the mid 1990s by taking the lead role in the Kyoto Climate Pact. Not even the global-warming sceptic George W Bush junior was able to completely reverse this landmark treaty.

Carter's legacy will be felt more keenly than ever in the coming months, as Barrack Obama has confirmed that Carter's Executive Order on the treatment of prisoners and their right to a trial will be upheld even for America's most reviled prisoner: Osama Bin Laden himself.

P.S. US Presidents

1977-1985- Jimmy Carter
1985-1989- Teddy Kennedy
1989-1993- George HW Bush
1993-2001- Bill Clinton
2001-2009- George W Bush
2009- Barrack Obama

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