What If... Thatcher Fought On?

"It's a funny old world," Mrs Thatcher told her Cabinet on the evening of 21st November 1990. The day before, by a mere two votes, she had failed to achieve the necessary margin of victory over her leadership challenger and arch-rival, Michael Heseltine. Now the contest was to go through to a second round, and Thatcher had summoned the Cabinet to seek their support and advice. Her initial plan had been to see her ministers one by one, but at the last minute her adviser, Peter Morrison, warned that they were beginning to waver. Therefore Thatcher decided to see them together, to put on a show of strength. And in the short term, it worked brilliantly. Almost all of the Cabinet said they would back her, their private doubts silenced by the presence of this most formidable leader. Only the Education and Scottish Secretaries, Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind, dared to voice their doubts over the viability of her future. When Thatcher's nomination paper arrived at Conservative Central Office the next morning, it was followed shortly by Clarke and Rifkind's resignations.

As the Cabinet was disintegrating, Heseltine was furiously courting backbenchers, telling them if this was allowed to carry on, the result would be a Labour government. Thatcher's increasingly abrasive style, the public relations disaster of the Poll Tax and, most worryingly for a backbencher, the fear of electoral meltdown made them listen. For the second ballot, only a simple majority was needed. In the end, it went to Heseltine by a whisker, his 177 votes beating Thatcher's 171, with 24 abstentions. With bad grace, the one time Iron Lady left office begrudgingly, urging her supporters not to cooperate with the new Prime Minister.

Luckily, Heseltine was better than that. His first meeting was with the big three Cabinet ministers, Chancellor John Major, Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd and Home Secretary David Waddington. He asked them if they would continue to serve in the interests of party unity. Afraid of forcing an early election, they all readily agreed. Then Heseltine produced his masterstroke. Norman Tebitt had been one of the key early Thatcherite stormtroopers, but had retired from frontline politics in 1987 to care for his wife, who had been disabled in the Brighton bombing. Tebitt was as surprised as the rest of the nation to be invited to Number 10 and offered the post of Environment Secretary, tasked with sorting out the mess of the Poll Tax. However, the two men had worked closely together to abolish the Inner London Education Authority, so perhaps the move wasn't as shocking as it first seemed. His acceptance ensured that, for now, the Thatcherite wing of the party was neutered. To sooth the left, Clarke and Rifkind were brought back: Rifkind to Education, where he was charged with sorting out the confusing system of education vouchers, while Clarke was placed at the revamped Board of Trade. Also back in the job he'd so recently vacated was Sir Geoffrey Howe, whose resignation had triggered the chain of events which brought Thatcher down. Lord Whitelaw's return as Party Chairman was acceptable to all wings of the party. As Major had been appointed Chancellor by Thatcher, Heseltine moved his Heathite ally Peter Walker off the backbenches to be No 2 at the Treasury. The last major change was to remove Chris Patten's ministerial responsibilities and make him Minister Without Portfolio, or 'Minister for Winning the Election' as everyone, even Tory Central Office, came to call him.

Heseltine didn't waste any time. Quickly, it became obvious he was to be a very different PM from Thatcher. John Major was ordered to use the Treasury to help boost growth, rather than focusing solely on inflation, while Ken Clarke used the vastly expanded powers of the President of the Board of Trade to pour money into companies. As a result, while the economy did briefly slide into recession in 1991, it was over by the start of 1992. Tebitt set about tearing up the Poll Tax with gusto, claiming the Thatcher Cabinet had failed to explain it, so it wasn't worth keeping. Instead, he introduced a Council Tax, whereby homes, not individuals, were taxed. While two major changes in a short period caused resentment, by the time the first bills were produced in April 1992 people were just pleased the uncertainty was over. Heseltine's handling of the Gulf War was widely praised, and the shots of him visiting soldiers in Kuwait did wonders for his public image. He also scored a major coup over the Maastricht Treaty, by managing to secure a temporary opt out for Britain from the Social Chapter and proposed Single Currency, described as a political master-stroke as it kept both the pro-EEC and Eurosceptic Tories on board. And then, to collective amazement, Heseltine pulled off a spectacular general election win in May 1992, polling over fourteen million votes and winning a majority of 31.

However, the 1992 election marked the beginning of the end of the Tory years. The fragile truce which had existed between the Thatcherites and the One Nation Tories collapsed, as Lady Thatcher finally broke her silence to denounce Heseltine. The retirement of Norman Tebitt from the Cabinet meant that there was no longer any heavyweight Thatcherites to cover Heseltine from the inside, and he increasingly appeared beleaguered. The revolt of the right wing over the Maastricht Treaty led to near siege warfare to get the legislation through Parliament, and the new Labour leader, John Smith, used the opportunity to wreak havoc. Despite having avoided a serious recession, the economy spent most of 1992 and 1993 bumping along, despite the Chancellor's much vaunted 'green shoots' he insisted on seeing everywhere. The disastrous moves to privatise the Post Office and British Rail persuaded many people that the days of privatisation were coming to an end.

These difficult few years led to a challenge to Heseltine's leadership in 1994, when the Major resigned and challenged Heseltine to a leadership election. Major failed to unseat Heseltine, and became a thorn on the backbenches. However, the Prime Minister used this as an opportunity to reshuffle his Cabinet and promote more like-minded MPs, namely One Nation pro-EU Tories.

Despite a healthy economy, the Conservatives were massacred at the 1996 general election, with the party wiped out in Wales and Scotland, and reduced to a mere 170 English seats. The new United Kingdom Independence Party took 12 seats under former Cabinet minister Peter Lilley. The new Tory leader, Heseltine's former Foreign Secretary Chris Patten did a good job of holding Tony Blair to account during the 1996-2000 parliament, but was unable to make a dent in his majority in 2000 as he had to compete with Michael Portillo's UKIP. His successor, veteran bruiser Ken Clarke, did better against Blair in 2004 due to his opposition to the Iraq War; however, his pro-Europeanism ensured UKIP still did well. It has only been under David Cameron that some sense of unity has been restored to the Conservative Party; however, the minority pact he has been running with Nick Clegg since 2009 is still at the mercy of George Osborne's UKIP, a situation which can be traced back to those fateful days in 1990.

P.S. Heseltine Cabinet, 1990

Prime Minister- Michael Heseltine
Chancellor of the Exchequer- John Major
Foreign Secretary- Douglas Hurd
Home Secretary- David Waddington
President of the Board of Trade- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- Tom King
Health Secretary- William Waldegrave
Education and Science Secretary- Malcolm Rifkind
Social Security Secretary- David Hunt
Environment Secretary- Norman Tebitt
Transport Secretary-John MacGregor
Energy Secretary- Peter Lilley
Employment Secretary- Michael Howard
Scottish Secretary- Ian Lang
Welsh Secretary- Norman Lamont
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Brooke
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Peter Walker
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Geoffrey Howe
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Prior
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Lord Whitelaw
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- John Gummer
Minister Without Portfolio- Chris Patten