Monday 22 October 2012

What If... Edwina Had Talked?

Poor John Major. To think that once he was tipped as a future Tory leader, possibly even prime minister. First elected to Parliament in 1979, he had risen through the Whips Office and the Social Security Department, until in 1987 he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. In 1989 he became Foreign Secretary, and within months was back at the Treasury as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He seemed to be going places.

But those who tipped him as a leader had reckoned without 'Honest John's' personal life. And it would cost him dear. On his first day at the Treasury, the Sun ran a spectacular headline: 'MAJOR'S FOUR YEAR AFFAIR WITH EGG MINISTER.' The story had been leaked by Edwina Currie, the egg minister in question, still bitter after being sacked as a junior health minister the year before amidst a storm over eggs and salmonella. The pressure on Major was intolerable, and after a week he was forced to throw in the towel and resign. It appeared that his career was over.

Fast forward a year, to November 1990. Mrs Thatcher's grip on power was precarious. Huge public rage over the poll tax was matched by internal turmoil within the Conservative party, with ex-Cabinet minister Michael Heseltine sharpening his claws for the inevitable showdown. The resignation of Sir Geoffrey Howe, the last survivor of Thatcher's 1979 cabinet, precipitated the collapse of Thatcher's premiership. Narrowly missing victory in the first ballot of the leadership contest, she was persuaded by her MPs to stand aside in the interest of party unity. Instead, the second ballot was contested by the Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, who appealed to many of the same Tories as Heseltine did. But Thatcher would rather see Hurd in No. 10 than her arch rival, and her lukewarm backing propelled Hurd into office.

Hurd's premiership got off to a pretty good start. He persuaded Heseltine back into the cabinet, and his new Environment Secretary set about dismantling the hated poll tax in favour of council tax. Chris Patten was promoted to head up the nation's finances as recession loomed. And there was a surprise comeback for John Major, to be in charge of the Department for Education, where he promised a 'back to basics' approach to schooling. Hurd was also lucky in that foreign affairs gave him an early opportunity to appear prime ministerial. The UN invasion of Iraq in 1991 boosted Hurd's standing in the Tory party and in the country at large, and encouraged him to seek an early election in June 1991. However, with the economy still flat-lining and memories of Thatcher still fresh, Hurd was lucky to hold onto his overall majority, which was cut from 102 to a mere 11.

Further troubles lay ahead, as Hurd and his fanatically pro-European Foreign Secretary, Kenneth Clarke, jetted off to Maastricht for the negotiation of a new EEC treaty. Although the pair managed to secure a British opt out from the proposed single currency, their acceptance of the Social Chapter was a gift to the new Labour leader, John Smith, while the Tory right seethed with rage. This unholy alliance wreaked havoc as the Maastricht Treaty was forced through the House of Commons in 1992, and Hurd sacrificed almost all of his political credibility to keep his government afloat in the lobbies, with the suspension of many Tory MPs bringing the government to the brink of collapse.

Then came Black Wednesday. In September 1992 the pound crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and Chris Patten was forced to resign as £14 billion was wiped off the stock market in a single day. He jetted off to Hong Kong as the colony's last British Governor; even worse, the Liberal Democrats won his Bath seat in the ensuing by-election, depriving Hurd of a majority in Parliament. These were dark days indeed. Increasingly seen as out of touch and lacking authority, Hurd was increasingly beleaguered. Nonetheless, he struggled on through 1993, until in 1994 his luck ran out. The government was defeated on Ken Clarke's new budget, and the country was plunged into a snap election. Despite Clarke's nursing of the economy back to health, money had not yet started to flow back into the pockets of voters. Fifteen years of Conservative rule was starting to drag, and under John Smith Labour finally appeared a safe and credible alternative. The drama only increased when, whilst out on the stump, Smith suffered a fatal heart attack. His deputy, Margaret Beckett, was rapidly installed as the new leader, just in time to lead Labour to a thumping 95 seat victory. The Labour leadership election was won by Beckett, using her position as Britain's second woman Prime Minister to dominate John Prescott and Gordon Brown in the campaign.

Under Labour, the country's economic recovery gathered pace, with the new minimum wage and programmes such as Sure Start helping to boost prosperity for all. Meanwhile, peace finally came to Northern Ireland, while Scotland and Wales enjoyed devolved government. Beckett found welcoming allies in both the EU and the Democratic US President Bill Clinton. Compared to life under Labour, the Tory alternative articulated by new compromise leader Michael Howard, who'd beaten Ken Clarke and Peter Lilley after Hurd retired to the Lords, appeared to be a throwback to a different, less appealing era. This doubtless contributed to his landslide defeat by Beckett in 1998. A Conservative government would not return until 2011, when the youthful David Cameron seized power by the skin of his teeth after barely beating Gordon Brown amidst the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Such is the power of political scandal.

P.S. Hurd Cabinet, 1990

Prime Minister- Douglas Hurd
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Chris Patten
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- Ken Baker
Defence Secretary- Tom King
Education and Science Secretary- John Major
Health Secretary- William Waldegrave
Trade and Industry Secretary- Malcolm Rifkind
Social Security Secretary- Peter Lilley
Environment Secretary- Michael Heseltine
Employment Secretary- Norman Lamont
Transport Secretary- Michael Howard
Energy Secretary- John Wakeham
Scottish Secretary- Ian Lang
Welsh Secretary- David Hunt
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Brooke
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Michael Portillo
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Norman Fowler
Leader of the House of Commons- John MacGregor
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Waddington
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- John Gummer

P.P.S. Prime Ministers, 1990-2012

1990-1994- Douglas Hurd (Con)
1994-2000- Margaret Beckett (Lab)
2000-2008- Tony Blair (Lab)
2008-2011- Gordon Brown (Lab)
2011-2012- William Hague (Con)

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