There's also the chance that the PM favours autumn elections. After all, it was in the autumn of 2005 that David Davis became leader of the Conservative party, narrowly beating the slick, young moderniser David Cameron. Many in the media had long tipped Davis as the front runner. However, he gave a poor conference speech, and it briefly looked as if Cameron had leapt into the lead. But out in the shires, where the Tory members were, experienced, Thatcherite rigour beat new, cuddly modernising any day. Even so, it was close. Many attributed Davis' last minute surge to his key role in bringing about Tony Blair's first parliamentary defeat, over plans to introduce 90 day detention without trial. The triumphant Davis wasn't able to be rid of the Cameroons entirely, and was required to keep many of the so called 'modernisers' in the Shadow Cabinet.
Davis got off to a good start. Blair's popularity was plumbing rock bottom. Davis rapidly pulled ahead of Blair in the polls, and kept this lead through 2006 and 2007. Davis' strategy was built on a crucial idea; that the Conservatives no longer needed to apologise for their governance of Britain between 1979 and 1997, but instead needed to show how they could govern Britain successfully in the future. To this end, he promised an "authentic socially-just conservatism," an idea which his humble roots boosted enormously. Lower taxes, lower spending, and toughness on crime and immigration were at the heart of his policies, which he began to lay out from early 2007. His opponents slammed this as little more than Thatcherism by another name, but the opinion polls seemed to show Davis was more in tune with the public. Indeed, by mid 2007 many were so convinced by the ideas that the Tories had laid on the table that new Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided not to call an early election, so as to give Labour time to try and sway the electorate back. Big mistake. Brown's popularity went into freefall, almost as much as the global economy did. Davis' strident assaults on the excessive state spending used to prop up the collapsing financial sector struck a chord with the public. But it was the happenings of mid-2008 which really set Davis up in the public eye.
Gordon Brown decided he would attempt to reintroduce the failed legislation on longer detention without trial. When it passed the Commons despite another huge Labour rebellion, Davis resigned as an MP, saying he wanted to take his fight to the country, and therefore triggering a by-election. Despite initial temptations to leave Davis to his stunt, in the end Labour also stood as the possibility to topple the Leader of the Opposition was too great. However, Davis had little to fear; we won over 80% of the vote, Labour crashed to fourth behind the Lib Dems and the Greens, and Davis' authority in the Conservative Party, almost derailed thanks to the by-election, was now stronger than ever. The Tories leapt into a clear opinion poll lead, and remained there until May 2010, when the general election saw them emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament. Brown resigned immediately, and Davis took power at the head of a minority government, promising to slash the fiscal deficit and return Britain to growth.
One of Davis' first announcements as Prime Minister was to close the entire Department for Energy and Climate Change, created in 2008 by Brown. It's functions were merged back into the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, headed by David Cameron, however the snub to Cameron and his favoured cause was clear. This, combined with a freeze in benefits for the entire 2010-2015 Parliament, allowed the new Chancellor, number-savvy Philip Hammond, to proclaim that the deficit was almost eliminated. Davis dealt very well with a series of early crises, such as shootings in Cumbria and Northumberland, handling the apology for Bloody Sunday and identifying a series of quangos which could be abolished. However, he also earned admiration from many on the left by refusing to raise tuition fees for university study in England from £3000 per year; indeed, he promised when the money was available to reduce fees as "people in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue."
Steering a delicate balance on the European stage between cooperation and opposition, and an early intervention in Libya, marked Davis out as a great foreign policy Prime Minister. Meanwhile, reforms in the NHS and the City got going, albeit not without controversy. And economic growth returned, but at a fragile rate. And then came the summer of 2012. With the Olympics and the Jubilee providing an enormous feel good boost, and with Ed Miliband making little headway for Labour, Davis decided to go for broke, and try and seek the majority mandate he so wished for.
With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, buoyed by support from students and those attracted to the promises of benefit reform and a referendum on Britain's EU membership, it is hard to see how Davis can lose. He seems to be well placed to be the first Tory leader in twenty years to win an election outright, and Davisism looks to be the course of the future.
Davis Cabinet, 2010
Prime Minister- David Davis
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Philip Hammond
Foreign Secretary- William Hague
Home Secretary- Theresa May
Justice Secretary- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- Liam Fox
Education Secretary- David Willetts
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Business and Enterprise Secretary- George Osborne
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- David Cameron
Transport Secretary- Eric Pickles
Culture, Media, Sport and the Olympics Secretary- Chris Grayling
International Development Secretary- Mark Field
Scottish Secretary- David Mundell
Welsh Secretary- Cheryl Gillan
Northern Irish Secretary- Owen Paterson
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Justine Greening
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir George Young
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Srathclyde
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office- Andrew Mitchell
Attorney General- Dominic Grieve
No comments:
Post a Comment