Wednesday 18 July 2012

What If... Hugh Gaitskell Had Lived A Bit Longer?

Whilst on holiday in Scotland I saw a story suggesting that the late Yasser Arafat was in fact killed by poisoning. While an interesting story in itself, it didn't help the Scottish Metro that they cited Hugh Gaitskell's death as an example of assassination by poison. The Labour leader's death in 1964 at the hands of a rare autoimmune disease has generated a whole series of conspiracy theories, but the fact remains that it was merely a random tragic event.

And it had come to within an inch of being so different. In 1963 Gaitskell had been riding high, his grip on the Labour party apparently secure after seeing off leadership challenges in 1960 and 1961. Discord in the party had died away, as Gaitskell opened up a huge poll lead over the Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and looked set to sweep into No 10 and end over a decade of Tory rule. But then, disaster struck. In October 1963 Macmillan stunned the country by standing down, and was replaced by Earl Home, soon to be Sir Alec Douglas-Home. At first it seemed as if things could only get better for Labour. Gaitskell mocked this 'Fourteenth Earl' and his apparent inability to understand economics, but this confident approach masked the recovery of the Conservative's standing. When the election finally came in Occtober 1964, the two parties were neck and neck. In the end, Douglas-Home just squeezed to victory with a majority of six, with a Liberal resurgence depriving Gaitskell of victory. Devastated at this second personal defeat, Gaitskell's health gave in, and he died in December 1964.

Despite his wafer-thin majority, Douglas-Home's administration did get off to a good start. The endorsement of the electorate allowed Douglas-Home to bring Tory heavyweights Enoch Powell and Iain Macleod back into the Cabinet. Under Macleod, the process of decolonisation continued, with much of the old British Empire converted into the Commonwealth of Nations, although the thorny issue of Rhodesia blighted Macleod's record. Meanwhile, Powell's 'New Defence Policy' called for the end of Britain's commitment East of Suez in favour of strengthening NATO. Powell also sided with the army commanders in resisting US pressure to commit to the deteriorating war in Vietnam, a move for which we can all be grateful.  Douglas-Home's biggest achievement, however, was his 1966 negotiation of Britain's entry into the 'Common Market', a feat he managed despite the presence of sceptics (notably Powell) in the Cabinet.

For Labour, the defeat was devastating, turning thirteen years of Tory rule into the prospect of almost two decades. Gaitskell's natural successor was George Brown, but Brown overstepped the mark by resurrecting Gaitskell's idea of abolishing Clause IV of the party constitution, enraging the left of the party. Combined with the open secret of his drinking habit, the wisecracking Harold Wilson was able to secure victory, where he soon proved his worth by wreaking havoc at Prime Minister's Questions. Combining an economists attention to detail with a devastating wit, Wilson proved an immediate hit with the public, offering a 'new' Labour party which would use economic planning and scientific advancement to drag Britain into the modern era.

For Douglas-Home, the situation appeared to be sliding into chaos. Reginald Maudling's stint as Chancellor of the Exchequer prior to 1964 had led to a serious balance of payment's crisis, which new Chancellor Edward Heath struggled to bring under control. The refusal of Powell and Macleod to back British involvement in Vietnam meant that the US placed the pound under intolerable pressure, and by 1967 the inevitable came in the form of devaluation. Heath resigned immediately, and his replacement as Chancellor, Enoch Powell, immediately instigated a dose of deflation which helped to bring the economy back under control. However, Douglas-Home's other big idea, to start to turn the nationalised industries into cooperatives, floundered when the trades unions refused to work with his Minister for Labour, Margaret Thatcher. 1968 saw a wave of industrial unrest, as Thatcher's plans to curb trade union power met with fierce opposition from millions of workers.

As the 1969 election loomed, the economy was starting to look on the up, but otherwise the government had precious little to show for its extra five years in office. Dissent was rife on the backbenches, stirred up by the inconsolable Edward Heath, the EEC was a hard policy to sell to the public, industrial strife blighted the public sector and Ian Smith of Rhodesia had made a mockery of the government's attempts at decolonisation. For many voters, it seemed to be the time for a change. It was no surprise when Labour stormed to victory with a massive 134 seat majority.

Wilson's 'new Labour government' lost no time in making its mark. On his first day as Home Secretary, Roy Jenkins caused a huge stir by suspending the execution of prisoners. Soon after were reforms to legalise homosexuality and abortion, end theatre censorship and ease divorce, measures which shocked many but showed the differences with Douglas-Home's moribund administration. In education, Richard Crossman began the process of ending the tripartite system and replacing it with comprehensive education, while Barbara Castle proved the darling of the left with the extra money poured into the NHS and welfare state. Labour were also able to reap the advantages of Powell's deflationary measures, combining it with a period of industrial intervention spearheaded by Tony Crosland, Peter Shore and Anthony Wedgwood Benn. When the early 1970s economic crisis broke upon us, the British economy was well placed to weather the storm, and the mixed economy and the high spending interventionist state have been with us ever since.

For the Tories, their 1969 defeat marked the start of a long, dark tunnel for them. Sir Alec Douglas-Home resigned as leader, and in the bitter battle to succeed him Reginald Maudling, Edward Heath and Enoch Powell slugged it out. Powell emerged as the narrow victor, and from there things began to go wrong. Powell's proposals to denationalise vast swathes of the public sector were deeply unpopular. Although a parliamentary debater of unparalleled success, Powell shocked the establishment by advocating the repatriation of Ugandan Asian refugees in 1972, in what became known as his 'Rivers of Blood' speech. While many people agreed with him on this, the damage it did to the internal balance of the Conservative party not only handed Wilson the 1973 election on a plate, it caused the party to fracture between Powellites and Heathites. Not until the Heathite Peter Walker was able to narrowly oust Denis Healey from No 10 in the depth of the early eighties recession would the Conservative party return to office, but not before it had accepted much of Labour's policy agenda. Those eighteen years in office from 1951 to 1969 may have done it more harm than good.

P.S. Douglas-Home Cabinet, 1964

Prime Minister- Sir Alec Douglas-Home
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Edward Heath
Foreign Secretary- R.A. Butler
Home Secretary- Reginald Maudling
Defence Secretary- Enoch Powell
Education and Science Secretary- Quintin Hogg
Health Secretary- Anthony Barber
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Boyd-Carpenter
Colonies and Commonwealth Secretary- Iain Macleod
Scottish Secretary- Michael Noble
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Sir Keith Joseph
Minister of Transport- Ernest Marples
Minister of Power- Selwyn Lloyd
Minister for Housing and Local Government- Frederick Erroll
Minister for Labour- Margaret Thatcher
Minister for Public Works- Edward du Cann
Minister for Agriculture- Christopher Soames
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Geoffrey Rippon
Leader of the House of Commons- Peter Thorneycroft
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Carrington

P.P.S. Wilson Cabinet, 1969

Prime Minister- Harold Wilson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Michael Stewart
Foreign Secretary- Denis Healey
Home Secretary- Roy Jenkins
Defence Secretary- James Callaghan
Education and Science Secretary- Richard Crossman
Health and Social Security Secretary- Barbara Castle
Trade and Industry Secretary- Tony Crosland
Employment Secretary- Richard Marsh
Economic Affairs Secretary- Peter Shore
Environment Secretary- Douglas Jay
Scottish Secretary- William Ross
Welsh Secretary- Cledwyn Hughes
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Dick Taverne
Minister of Transport- Bill Rodgers
Minister for Technology- Anthony Wedgwood Benn
Minister for Agriculture- Fred Peart
Minister for Overseas Development- Judith Hart
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Shirley Williams
Leader of the House of Commons- George Brown
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Shackelton

P.P.P.S. Prime Ministers, 1963-2012

1963-1969- Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Con)
1969-1976- Harold Wilson (Lab)
1976-1977- Tony Crosland (Lab)
1977-1981- Denis Healey (Lab)
1981-1991- Peter Walker (Con)
1991-1993- Douglas Hurd (Con)
1993-2001- Bryan Gould (Lab)
2001-2005- Tony Blair (Lab)
2005-2010- Michael Portillo (Con)
2010-2012- Alan Johnson (Lab)

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