Thursday 22 November 2012

What If... PM for PM?

'It was the phone call Gordon Brown had been dreading. "Gordon," said the voice on the line, "I think we need to have a little chat..." And that marked the beginning of the end really.'

The day was Monday, June 8th, 2009. With the arrival of the last results of the EU elections from Scotland, the electoral whirlwind which Labour had experienced the previous Thursday was at last clear. In the European elections, it had been driven into third place behind David Cameron's resurgent Conservative party and the fringe party UKIP, polling a mere 15.7%. In the local elections, it was even worse. Also pushed into third place, on 23% of the vote, Labour had lost all it's councils in this cycle; vast swathes of the country had not a single Labour politician in them. With a general election due within the year, this was the crisis point. Many Labour members were despairing, and the MPs were starting to panic. And nothing is more dangerous than a panicking backbencher. And so the plotters began to gather. It was plain that, under Brown, Labour would slip to a landslide defeat in 2010. But they had one major obstacle. The long Blair-Brown feud had left an assumption, that Gordon would be leader next; as a result, there were very few other senior figures with the stature to lead. More importantly, any challenger would look infeasible.

Enter John Bercow, then the recently elected Speaker of the House of Commons. He had been asked by Brown to make a ruling, which at the time appeared merely procedural, but would have a profound impact on the future of the country. Bercow was being asked to rule on whether a peer could answer questions in the House of Commons. Brown had a particular peer in mind. The crowning glory of Brown's 2008 cabinet reshuffle had been to resurrect the career of Peter Mandelson, one of the founding fathers of New Labour, but since 2004 living in semi-disgraced exile in Brussels. Brown made Mandelson a Lord, and put him charge of the new Business department, charging him with leading Britain's charge to economic growth. Given Mandelson had previously resigned from the cabinet not once but twice, and that the two men were bitter enemies, the comeback was all the more remarkable. Bercow did sign off the motion, to allow Mandelson to do battle with his Tory shadow Kenneth Clarke. Mandelson's superb performances in the Commons began to make people sit up and take note, a position strengthened when he received a thumping reception from the 2009 Labour conference. PM, as he was affectionately known, had won round both Brown and the Labour members- could the country be next?

And so the plotters struck. On October 20th an opinion poll showed Labour in third place nationally. With this cue, Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, former cabinet ministers, wrote to all their fellow MPs to try and trigger an election. Although Brown narrowly staved off a no-confidence vote in his leadership, he was mortally wounded. It was the call from Mandelson the next morning, brilliant recorded in Alistair Campbell's diary, which ended things, as he persuaded Brown that, either he went, or the party would tear itself in two. The cabinet had steeled itself, apart from the ultra-Brownite Ed Balls and his wife, Yvette Cooper, who left along with Brown, to simmer on the backbenches. As the cabinet met that morning, they needed to put forward a name to fill the vacancy. 'Why not Peter?' suggested Harriet Harman, the Deputy Leader. And so it went through. Lord Mandelson was now the first peer to be Prime Minister since Lord Salisbury in 1901. He had gone from twice resignee to Prime Minister in eight years. He was also only the second openly gay leader in any Western democracy, behind Iceland. It remained to be seen what others would think.

The press had a field day, railing against the move as an undemocratic coup conducted behind closed doors (which, to be fair, it was). The Opposition parties were hardly any better. There was widespread confusion as to whether it was even possible for a peer to be Prime Minister, as constitutional pundits weighed in on whether the idea was merely dormant or had become illegal. It was also pointed out that the last time there had been a third Prime Minister in the same Parliament was 1940, and the economic woes of 2009 were not that bad. But amidst all the criticism, there were some bonuses. The Murdoch press was less aggressive than feared, while Labour members, for the first time in ages, began to feel hope.

Mandelson set to work right away. He immediately asked Alistair Darling to announce a programme of cuts to public spending, to demonstrate that the government understood the importance of getting the national debt under control. Darling chose to not replace Trident and to delay new buildings for schools, along with some superficial cuts to welfare. While the Brownites howled, many in the press and the public were impressed with Mandelson's honesty, compared with Gordon Brown's burying of his head in the sand.

The Tories had been outflanked. Cameron and George Osborne seemed whiny and empty when compared to Mandelson's experience, and Labour drew neck and neck with them in the opinion polls. The deadlock remained as the election campaign got underway in 2010. Labour's manifesto promised to half the deficit in the next Parliament, while the welfare state would be radically restructured to ensure that it returned to it's original role of a safety net. They also pledged to continue with the constitutional reform they had begun in 1997, and to work with the EU and the G20 to introduce a Robin Hood Tax. Many of the New Labour voters who would otherwise have deserted the party were impressed, while Mandelson's cool performance under fire in the TV debates helped improve his image versus Cameron. Even the Sun admitted that it's earlier endorsement of Cameron may have been a bit hasty. However, the 13 years of Labour rule left many feeling unsure whether they could back Labour under any leader. The result was a hung parliament, with the Conservatives on 286 seats, Labour with 279 and the Liberal Democrats on 57. But given how Labour had been expecting to do, it felt like a victory, and to the leader, the recently de-nobled and narrowly elected MP for Durham North-West, they gave the credit. True, plain old Peter Mandelson, as he now was, proved unable to prevent the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from forming, but the coalition's narrow majority, plus it's turbulent time in office since, mean that many now expect Mandelson will return to Number 10 in May 2015, if not sooner.

P.S. Mandelson Cabinet, 2009

Prime Minister- Lord Mandelson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Alistair Darling
Foreign Secretary- David Miliband
Home Secretary- Alan Johnson
Justice Secretary- Jack Straw
Defence Secretary- Bob Ainsworth
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Alan Milburn
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- James Purnell
Work and Pensions Secretary- John Denham
Transport Secretary- Lord Adonis
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Hilary Benn
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Ed Miliband
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Jon Cruddas
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain
Northern Irish Secretary- Patricia Hewitt
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Liam Byrne
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Geoff Hoon
Leader of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall

No comments:

Post a Comment