What If... Gordon Brown Never Led Labour?

Recently, I've begun notice that Tony Blair has started to make a surreptitious return to the world of domestic politics. Apparently his advisers think that, after five years away from the UK political scene, its safe enough for him to start giving his opinion again. 2007 does really seems like another world now. Despite only being five years ago, it is hard to recall how the political landscape of Britain lay. Tony Blair had been Prime Minister for nearly a decade, but was on the brink of standing down. Everyone knew what would come next. His long serving Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, would step into the role of Prime Minister, a job he had been waiting for since the infamous alleged Blair-Brown deal of 1994. Quite how Brown's economic prowess would have helped him during the crash remains one of the biggest what ifs of modern British history, however. For there was another candidate lurking in the wings.

John Reid, who since 1997 had been a Transport Minister, the Scottish Secretary, the Northern Irish Secretary, the Leader of the House of Commons, the Health Secretary, the Defence Secretary and finally Home Secretary, was arguably the most experienced government minister Labour had had since Jim Callaghan in the 1970s. Now, in the dying days of Blair's government, Reid began to emerge as a 'Stop Gordon' candidate. A committed Blairite from before even Blair had been one, he had a high profile as the man who had fronted Britain's response to a severe terrorist plot in 2006. Unlike Brown, he had experience of running several high-spending government departments, and was arguably more in touch with Labour's grassroots and traditional support base.

Even so, when he announced in May 2007 his intention to run for leader, few seriously expected him to do more than prevent the impression of a coronation. Brown was a formidable campaigner, and had been the heir apparent for as long as anyone could remember. What could possibly go wrong?

The problem with this presumption is that it missed the fact that many who voted in the leadership election thought Reid more in touch with their views. His manifesto promised to reward those who worked, whilst not handing out to those who didn't. There was a strong law and order theme, at a time when crime was a big concern for many people. Slowly, and in an increasingly bitter atmosphere, Reid began to catch up with Brown in the polls. But still it seemed unthinkable that Brown could lose.

As the results from the bruising leadership race were read out, it was still neck and neck. In the end, Reid beat Brown by the narrowest of margins, less than one percent. The grimace on Brown's face at the special conference said it all. Worryingly for Reid, his victory had depended heavily on Labour's members and trade unionists; the Parliamentary Party was firmly with Brown. Although widely missed at the time, this would come back to hurt Reid.

In the ensuing Cabinet reshuffle, Reid offered Brown the role of Foreign Secretary but Brown was having none of it; it was the Treasury or nothing. After a heated meeting lasting over an hour, during which there are allegations the two men nearly came to blows, Brown threw in the towel and resigned from the Cabinet. Luckily the Presidency of the World Bank was up for renewal and Blair managed to persuade George W. Bush to nominate the recently knighted Sir Gordon to the post. And with that masterstroke, the Blairite victory in the Labour party was complete. The rest of Reid's new Cabinet was dominated by Blairites, with Alistair Darling at Trade and Industry left to carry the torch for the Brownites. The victory of Brown's long term ally, Harriet Harman, in the Deputy Leadership election, was an annoyance, but didn't obviously represent a massive thorn to Reid.

John Reid already had a reputation as good in a crisis, and his first summer as Prime Minister only enhanced this. Within days, a string of terrorist attacks in London and Glasgow were narrowly averted, and Reid took much of the credit for the excellent response of the security services. This was barely over when the British weather intervened, causing widespread flooding which wrecked homes and livelihoods, not to mention wreaking a substantial death toll. The government promised extra money to boost flood defences, and the footage of Reid touring the affected areas and helping the emergency services went down well with the electorate. The speedy and efficient response to an outbreak of foot and mouth disease contrasted with the crisis-laden atmosphere under Blair in 2001. Reid also cemented his image as tough on crime when he visited Liverpool in the aftermath of the shooting of 11 year old Rhys Jones, vowing to bring those responsible to justice. With his standing in the polls rising with every passing week, many observers wondered if he would take advantage of Labour's rise and call a snap election for the autumn; certainly neither David Cameron nor Sir Menzies Campbell were able to land a blow on Reid.

But this speculation was dangerous. By allowing it to run away, the 'Reid Recovery' was wiped out when the Prime Minister announced at the Labour conference that he was going to wait until "2009 or 2010, to see the job through" before calling the election. Many pointed to the strong performance by the Tory Shadow Chancellor George Osborne at the Conservative conference, plus worrying signs on the economic front.

This story, that of financial crisis, is what has come to define the Reid years. Given that the Prime Minister had a Phd in economic history, and the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ruth Kelly, was a former economist, the new government looked well placed to deal with the economic storm which broke around it. Kelly's initial moves to stabilise, then nationalise Northern Rock were well received, and Reid was able to point the finger of blame firmly at Brown for failing to plan for the long term in his decade as Chancellor. But then things got worse. In 2008 the entire banking sector teetered on the edge of collapse, and Reid decided to make an example of one bank to warn the others. The disappearance of Lloyds from the UK high street after almost 250 years sent shockwaves through the system, and the government's economic credibility was wiped out in a few short weeks. It didn't help that the next week, the Royal Bank of Scotland was nationalised, leading to accusations of the Scot favouring the Scots. The next few years were spent arguing whether or not to start cutting public spending to pay for the bailouts; Reid was in favour, while a Brownite rearguard in Cabinet and the party resisted the move. Attempts by Alistair Darling to encourage the growth of UK manufacturing were widely praised, but it was really a case of too little too late. It didn't help that at all major world economic summits, including the G20 here in the UK, the press tended to focus on the brooding presence of the World Bank president, Sir Gordon Brown, who was helping to shape the response to the crash in such a way that it helped developing nations. In comparison, Reid looked beleaguered.

It's all too easy to view a premiership as a one story narrative. Reid's was far from it. Also dominant was the war in Afghanistan. In 2006, as Defence Secretary, he had given the go ahead for the deployment of British forces to Helmand province, assuring the public "they will leave with not a shot being fired." As the death toll mounted, and the government was berated for failing to provide adequate equipment, these words came back to haunt Reid again and again. His refusal to launch an independent inquiry into the war in Iraq ensured another sore was left open to drain Labour's support. On law and order, Reid was a real hit with Labour's traditional base. However, many began to fear that things were going too far. The heavy police crackdowns during the G20 may have protected the summit, but left many people unsure as to whether the police had made the situation worse, especially once it emerged they had accidentally killed an innocent bystander. The ID card scheme was speeded up, control orders became ever more draconian and an wound was reopened when Reid decided to reintroduce legislation to the Commons to increase detention without trial for terror suspects to be increased to 90 days. The Tories were able to find common cause with the Liberal Democrats and Labour discontents on the cause of civil liberties, with home affairs spokesmen David Davis and Chris Huhne helping to put the measures into serious doubt. Once again, the bill was defeated, but the damage was already done to the Prime Minister. Labour's Brownite wing, still smarting from their leader's defeat in 2007, had gone along with Reid at first, but from early 2009 onwards they were in a barely-concealed revolt, with Brown's protege Ed Balls taking the role of chief dissident outside of Cabinet. For David Cameron, this was all good news, as it put him in line for a landslide.

The 2010 election didn't quite turn out that way, however. Labour's vote actually rose in many inner city areas, where working class voters identified with Reid's strident anti-crime and anti-terror rhetoric. However, in areas with a high ethnic population, the perceived anti-immigrant bias this message could be interpreted as saw voters flock to the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. The lack of trust on the economy also saw Labour's vote plummet across the board, but voters weren't massively enthused by Cameron's warnings on cuts either. The result was a hung parliament, with a vastly increased Liberal Democrat contingent of 81. Many expected the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg to enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with Cameron. Instead, we were all astonished to see them enter into a full coalition, which placed economic credibility and civil liberties at the heart of its programme. Reid had already
resigned by this point, dismissing calls for a Lib-Lab pact by saying: "I think from the point of view of the electorate, the two losing parties trying to usurp the role of the major party - although I disagree with that party - will not be welcomed." In the ensuing leadership election, Labour only had one credible candidate, the man who had been shut out of Cabinet when his economic expertise was really needed and who had valiantly opposed Reid from the backbenches: Ed Balls' hour was now upon us.

P.S. Reid Cabinet, 2007

Prime Minister- John Reid

Chancellor of the Exchequer- Ruth Kelly
Foreign Secretary- Alan Johnson
Home Secretary- David Miliband

Justice Secretary- Jack Straw
Defence Secretary- Des Browne
Health Secretary- John Hutton
Education, Children and Families Secretary- Beverly Hughes
Trade and Industry Secretary- Alistair Darling
Work and Pensions Secretary- Hilary Armstrong
Transport Secretary- Hilary Benn
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Hazel Blears
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- James Purnell
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Culture, Media, Sport and the Olympics Secretary- Ben Bradshaw
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain
Northern Irish Secretary- Shaun Woodward
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Andy Burnham
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, First Secretary of State and Minister for Equality- Harriet Harman
Leader of the House of Commons- Geoff Hoon
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Adonis
Labour Chief Whip- Jacqui Smith