Wednesday 7 March 2012

What If... Callaghan Had Called An Election In 1978?

Archive Clip on BBC Parliament, from the General Election of 1983


David Dimbelby: Well thanks very much for that there Robin. A truly insightful interview from Sir Edward du Cann there, Chairman of the 1922 Committee of course, warning the Conservative leader that after this result, he will have to think very hard about his position. Now, with almost 610 constituencies declared, lets have a summary of the night, and indeed the past few years, from our Political Correspondent:

Cuts to report


When the history books are written, the verdict on James Callaghan will be one of luck. Luck that his often beleaguered minority government survived the mid-1970s crisis, luck that he called the October 1978 general election before the industrial unrest which could otherwise have sunk his government, luck that he faced the unpopular Mrs Thatcher in that election, luck he was in power as North Sea oil began to flow ashore, and finally luck that he saw off the challenge from the left of his party which could otherwise have crippled his premiership.

Back in 1979 this night can barely have seemed possible. After scraping a victory in the October 1978 election by a nine seat majority, James Callaghan's government was faced with a huge swell of militant trade unionism, which came close to bringing the country to its knees. He must have thanked the powers that be that he chose to have that election then; there was some speculation he would wait until 1979. The strikes of the winter of discontent would almost certainly have robbed him of the premiership. But as we know, he saw off Mrs Thatcher, who was promptly dropped by her party, replaced by her former Cabinet colleague Peter Walker. Compared to his days running a minority government, a nine seat majority must have felt like a landslide for Callaghan. Now he could get on with trying to bring inflation further under control.

Strangely, the winter of discontent actually helped the Prime Minister. Armed with a fresh mandate, his fury that the trades unions had gone a step too far enabled him to force curbs on their powers through Parliament; the support of the Liberals and the Conservatives more than compensated for the revolt on the Labour left. Under the terms of the Act, trade union representatives were given places on the boards of the nationalised industries, and the quality of arbitration was beefed up. In return, the unions had to accept that never again would be they be allowed to hold the country to ransom, and legal curtails were placed on strikes. The assent of the Industrial Relations Act of 1979 led Tony Benn, the maverick left winger, to quit the Cabinet in order to protest against it. That was fine by Callaghan; he could do no harm outside the government, especially once the organisations that backed his ideas were placed on a list banning them from taking part in the Labour party.

Even as the world recession began to bite, Callaghan and his Chancellor, Denis Healey, used some of the proceeds of North Sea oil to ease the pain, whilst using the rest to help fund a huge investment in British industry. An export driven boom was the result, and Tory complaints about the size of the state fell on deaf ears; for most people, they had a job, and this was enough. Come 1980, Callaghan felt confident enough to retire, passing the baton over to Healey. For those on the left, this was the last straw; they quit the party, forming their own Democratic Socialist Party; as we've seen tonight, this was a road to nowhere.

Healey proved an immediate hit with the public, his easy going, friendly public persona offering a more attractive prospect than the Tories, bitterly divided between the Heathites under Walker and the free marketers led by Sir Keith Joseph and Mrs Thatcher. Even so, with the economy proving sluggish, the outcome of the next election was not clear.

All this changed in 1982, when news of the invasion of the Falklands reached London. As a former soldier himself, Healey knew it was imperative that the islands were retaken. His Defence Secretary, Roy Mason, who had made his name at the Northern Irish Office as a hard nut to crack, did wonders for the government's image by touring the landing zones at San Carlos Water, whilst Healey's popularity ratings can't have been harmed by the footage of him entering Port Stanley the day after the war ended, complete with his medals from his own war service. Many observers expected him to call a snap khaki poll, but, as we now know, he decided to wait until September 1983 so as to not appear opportunistic. With the economy on the up, his great gamble appears to have paid off.

Cuts back to the studio

David Dimbelby: Well, there you have it. And now we're going off air for a few hours, but we'll just leave you with the final computer prediction, which is:

Labour- 44.7%- 371 seats
Conservative- 34.2%- 241 seats
Liberals- 13.9%- 17 seats
Others- 7.2%- 21 seats

Giving a projected Labour majority of ninety two. From all of us here at the BBC, a very good afternoon.


P.S. Callaghan Cabinet, 1978

Prime Minister- James Callaghan
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Denis Healey
Foreign Secretary- David Owen
Home Secretary- Merlyn Rees
Defence Secretary- Bill Rodgers
Education and Science Secretary- Shirley Williams
Health and Social Security Secretary- Joel Barnett
Industry Secretary- Roy Hattersley
Trade Secretary- Albert Booth
Environment Secretary- Peter Shore
Employment Secretary- Harold Lever
Energy Secretary- John Morris
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary- Eric Varley
Transport Secretary- Fred Mulley
Scottish Secretary- Bruce Millan
Welsh Secretary- Neil Kinnock
Northern Irish Secretary- Roy Mason
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- John Smith
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- David Ennals
Leader of the House of Commons- Michael Foot
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Peart
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- John Silkin
Minister Without Portfolio- Tony Benn

P.P.S. Healey Cabinet, 1980

Prime Minister- Denis Healey
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Joel Barnett
Foreign Secretary- Shirley Williams
Home Secretary- Roy Hattersley
Defence Secretary- Roy Mason
Education and Science Secretary- Peter Shore
Health Secretary- David Owen
Social Security Secretary- Brynmor John
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Smith
Environment Secretary- John Silkin
Employment Secretary- Neil Kinnock
Energy Secretary- Michael Meacher
Transport Secretary- David Ennals
Scottish Secretary- Donald Dewar
Welsh Secretary- Alec Jones
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Archer
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Albert Booth
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Peter Archer
Leader of the House of Commons- Bill Rodgers
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Peart
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- Gerald Kaufman

2 comments:

  1. Very interesting. If only this had happened. I wonder what the effects on the country would have been if Labour had ruled throughout the 1980s? Soviet-style socialism? I doubt it, but beyond that I cannot speculate.

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    1. Hi there, sorry for the slow reply, for some reason it never told me there'd been a comment!

      I doubt it, as for Labour to have held office in the 1980s, it would have had to drop the proto-communist ideas of the hard-left. I've not yet been able to write a convincing alternative 1980s story with a hard-left Labour government where it wasn't defeated heavily... for better or for worse!

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