Tuesday 16 January 2018

Put up or shut down

By the end of today, the US government may cease to function.

Cue the wits who will say this happened a year ago, when Donald Trump became president. But it is a serious business. From midnight, US federal employees will be sent home from work, not knowing when they will return. Non essential services run by the federal government, such as museums, national parks, and various levels of administration, will just stop. Athough essential services will continue to run, the government will grind to a halt.

This is not the first time this has happened. When the Congress doesn't agree a budget bill, a shutdown kicks in. These rules, in place since 1979, have resulted in 10 shutdowns. Under Reagan and Bush Senior, these lasted no more than 3 days. Clinton's duel with Newt Gingrich lengethed the shutdowns, to 5 days in 1995, then 21 days from 1995-1996. Obama, in the autumn of 2013, presided over a 17 day shutdown, fuelled by Republican opposition to Obamacare.

A key feature of these shutdowns is the divided nature of the US government. Under Reagan and Obama, their shutdowns were caused in part by the fact that their party only had majorities in the Senate; the opposite party controlled the House. Both Bush Senior and Clinton were at the mercy of the entire Congress being controlled by their opponents; in Clinton's case the Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, was a bitter enemy that exacerbated the problem. The US constitution gives great credence to the 'separation of powers,' where the legislature and the executive balance each other out. Add in the divides of political parties, and it is no wonder gridlock can occur.

As you'd expect, Trump has shattered what comes before. His party holds 51 seats in the Senate, to his opponents' 49, and 238 seats in the House of Representatives, versus 193 Democrats. When he took office, there was a lot of disquiet about the potential power of one political party controlling the presidency and both chambers of Congress. Especially when that party is headed by Donald bloody Trump.

Yet somehow, here we are, hours away from the first shutdown to occur in an era when one political party controls the entire political machinery. And somehow Trump is trying to blame the Democrats. That's like blaming the other team's spectators when your football team loses.

It is a hell of an accomplishment. Just not quite in the way Trump wanted...

Clinton and Gingrich, displaying their loathing in 1995. At least they were on different sides...

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