R.E.M. explain why Trump will not be President

Do you believe they put a man on the moon?

Another good night for the Donald. He was the biggest Republican winner in the Super Tuesday primaries yesterday, carrying seven states. These seven states were spread across the USA, and do not represent any section of the country or population. His challengers are struggling to break through. The message is that Trump wins, wins everywhere, and is beginning to look unstoppable.

Is he really? In the seven states that he carried, Trump took 38.6% of the vote. His best winning result was in Massachusetts, with 49.2%. His worst was in Arkansas, which he carried despite only getting the support of 32.7% of Republican supporters. When you factor in the states that Trump lost, his vote share for yesterday was 34.6%. Nearly two-thirds of the Republican party is voting against him. Only a badly divided field is allowing Trump through. Presuming that Trump continues with this broad average, he will enter the convention with the lowest support for a Republican frontrunner since the modern primary system was introduced in 1972.

The Democrats have slightly more experience of picking their candidate from a split field. George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukasis in 1988, and Barack Obama in 2008 all became the Democratic nominee with a primary vote share near Trumps. Three of these lost in landslide elections. One was narrowly elected President, despite facing a Republican party imploding under the weight of scandal and economic crisis. And Barack Obama, who had the good fortune of campaigning against the Republicans in the midst of the Great Recession and banking crash.

My point is, with two exceptions, no one becomes President when their party is so badly divided. Trump is the frontrunner, yes. I think he will become the Republican nominee.

Trump may be coming across as an all-conquering, election winning machine. But this is where R.E.M come in. 

Trump is supported by between 30% and 45% (give or take) of the Republican electorate. Which amounts to about 6%-8% of the total US population. 

Which, rather brilliantly, is about the same proportion of the US population who think that moon landings were faked.

That is not enough to enter the White House. It's not enough for him to stand a chance in November.

So, do you believe they put a man on the moon? That's about the current level of support that Donald Trump has.

He hasn't got a hope in hell.