The Day After

In my defence, I always said I thought the Tories would do better than expected. But I am still in a state of shock. I honestly didn't expect the Tories to win outright, or the SNP to do as well, Labour to fall back, or the Liberal Democrats to suffer such a spectacular collapse.

This is a new phase for people of my age. The last Conservative only government was in 1997, on the edge of my childhood memories. And they'd lost their majority in December 1996. All my coherent memories are of either Labour in power, or the Coalition. I've never had any experience of direct Tory rule. And on a personal note, this is the first time I saw the party I voted for not win; my previous general election vote was for the Liberal Democrats, who ended up in power. As a person on the left, I am gutted.

But... moaning aside, I do have a few observations.

1) Didn't Cameron do well?- Credit where it is due. David Cameron seemed almost disinterested through the campaign. I thought that even if he did well yesterday, he would be hounded out by the Tories for failing to win again. But today he stood on the steps of No. 10, having seized a majority in the Commons. He took over 11 million votes, more than Tony Blair in 2001 and 2005, beating his own total from 2010 too. The last Prime Minister to increase their strength whilst in government was Mrs Thatcher in 1983. If nothing else, he will go down in the history books for one of the surprising election comebacks of all time.

2) But not that well...- Let's crunch some numbers. Cameron's vote rose by a pathetic 0.8%. His 36.9% support represents the second lowest vote share for a government since 1832, when the first stirrings of democracy began to creep into our system. The only person to do worse was Blair in 2005, and when that government, by then under Brown, faced the voters in 2010, it was badly battered. Treating a little over 1/3 of the vote as majority support is dangerous. Cameron would do well to remember that.

3) Labour; as bad as it looks?- Yes. For Labour, the result was a catastrophe. After five years of Opposition, it managed to do worse than in 2010, amidst the Great Recession. It trails the Tories by 99 seats. Obliterated in its Scottish heartlands, stagnant or in retreat in England. Big names gone. Ed Balls out in Morley and Outwood. Jim Murphy defeated in Scotland. Douglas Alexander out-voted by a 20 year old student, who in three weeks will sit her university finals. An entire generation of Labour politicians have been swept aside. What is left needs to think long and hard about where it goes from here.

But... Labour's share of the vote rose, by 1.4%. They closed the gap between them and the Tories, from 7.1% to 6.5%. If not for the rise of the SNP, Labour would have many more seats. Ed Miliband fought a bloody good campaign. Obviously, Labour are in deep trouble. But there is some light amidst the dark.

4) The Lib Dems- I really felt for Nick Clegg. The party has paid the price for putting country before party. And what a price. The party has been devastated. It lost 86% of its seats last night. Its vote share collapsed from 23% to 8%. Big names out of office, in seats held for decades. I was expecting the local factor to help keep some Lib Dem MPs in. But so total was the collapse that this did not save them. 

Is this the end for them? The Liberal Democrats can trace a history back to the 1600s. They've been down to single figures of MPs before. They'll be back. Good luck Tim Farron, I'm sure you'll make an excellent leader.

5) The force unleashed- What happened in Scotland last night was mind boggling. The SNP took 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland, and half the Scottish vote. They have set themselves up as the authentic voice of Scotland. They alone speak for the Scottish people.

Unless, of course, you come from the 50% of Scots who didn't back the SNP. You have the choice of a Tory, a Lib Dem, and one Labour MP. As Gerry Fitt, the lone pro-Nationalist MP in Northern Ireland in the 1970s, used to say, he spoke for half of Ulster, while ten Unionists spoke for the other half. Our electoral system tends to exaggerate large leads when turned into seats. The Lib Dems actually got substantially more votes than the SNP. But the difference in seats is 48 in favour of the SNP. Under a fairer voting system, the SNP would still be happy, but not quite as much.

The big flaw in the SNP's plans was always evident. They would get rid of the Tories, and make Labour more radical. Of course, this depended on a Labour government they helped to prevent, and a hung parliament that never materialsed. Now what? Will the Scottish electorate be satisfied by very radical complaining?

The SNP's success is down to many reasons. But a big one is because, after the independence referendum last year, they successfully managed to equate 'Scottishness' with the SNP. Minor details like facts just bounce off the SNP, because they're not interested in trivial things like that. They are interested in beliefs. To be a true Scot, you must back the Nationalists. And nationalism is a troubling thing. It preaches division and sectarianism, and can end in dark places. This is an ugly force let loose in the UK, and the SNP may find in time that they have released a monster they cannot control.

6) Tee hee hee- Only time I've been pleased with the result first past the post gives. Yes, it denied voices to millions of people. But UKIP need to be fought and shown for what they really are, and if them not having a platform to preach their vicious message is part of that, then so be it.

There is a lot for those on the left to be afraid of in the next five years. Billions worth of further cuts, considerably more than we saw in the last five years The potential exit from the EU. A diminishing of Britain's voice in the world. Further pain for the poorest and most vulnerable in our society. The very existence of the UK.

But I will end on a positive. When I was born, Britain was just over halfway through a long period of one party rule, particularly partisan right wing rule at that. Yes, there was misery and suffering for many. But the country didn't end. The left did (eventually) bounce back. And that was when the Conservatives were led by their most electorally successful leader ever. For all he looks it today, David Cameron is no Mrs Thatcher.

Keep hoping, keep fighting.