A Britain in economic crisis. Europe looming large in our politics. Spiralling energy prices. The trade unions. Recent events have led many commentators to point to the 1970s for a parallel. The coalition must be praying they are right; the 1970s was after all the decade which ushered in the remarkable twenty years of Conservative rule, and arguably the fifteen which came shortly after too.
If there was any point when this rule came closest to ending between the elections of 1970 and 1990, it was in January 1974. The country was gripped by a huge shortage of fuel following a war in the Middle East and a dispute with the coal miners at home. Things were starting to look desperate for the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath. But finally, he and Joe Gormley, the miners' union leader, were able to hammer out a deal which satisfied the miners' demands. Crucially, Gormley was persuaded at the last minute not to let Harold Wilson, the Labour leader, in on the agreement, thus preventing any wrecking tactics by Labour.
The return to work by the miners enabled the power shortages and the Three Day Week to be brought to an end, and Heath was widely praised for his handling of the crisis. When he called an election in mid-1974, Wilson's complaints fell on deaf ears; Heath was overwhelmingly re-elected. He was thus able to continue with his package of industrial and economic reforms, and as the economy gradually improved he was able to draw back from many of the interventionist positions he had been forced to adopt during the 1970-1974 era. As North Sea oil began to flow ashore, productivity rose and unemployment fell, it looked like Heath's much vaunted economic miracle was about to become reality.
But looks can be deceptive. The sterling crisis of 1976 was a low point for Heath, with Britain forced to take out a loan from the IMF in order to get by, causing the resignation of his Chancellor of the Exchequer Keith Joseph. It was all easy pickings for new Labour leader Denis Healey, and in the 1978 election he cut Heath's majority from 63 to 37. The buoyant economy helped the Prime Minister to survive, along with the news that the IMF loan wasn't really needed anyway due to Treasury miscalculations. Winning the BBC Sports Personality of the Year in 1977 for his second Admiral's Cup sailing victory can't have done him any harm either. And it was a good job he held the election in the summer too, given the epic battles between the trades unions and the government during the 1978-79 'Winter of Discontent'. Luckily, the Trade Union Act of 1975 held firm, and despite an uncomfortable few months, Heath soon emerged victorious in this second clash with the unions.
Edward Heath retired from politics in 1980, his popularity riding high on the back of his rescue of stranded sailors in 1979s Fastnet Race. He handed over to his young Heathite protege Peter Walker. Walker's response to the severe early 1980s recession was a massive programme of investment in British industry to finish what Ted Heath had started. Those in the Tory Party unhappy with such an approach lost the remaining key free-marketer in the Cabinet when the Trade and Industry Secretary, Margaret Thatcher, was sacked by Walker following her assertion that higher unemployment would kick-start the economy. Walker was also lucky in that Labour had also chosen 1980 to change its leader. After a decade out of power, the Labour left had persuaded Tony Benn to challenge Denis Healey, and at a stroke the party ceased to be a credible electable force. The split in the party as right wingers left for the new Social Democrats was hugely damaging to Labour.
The first signs of recovery, a split opposition and Britain's victory in the Falklands gave Walker a landslide victory in 1982, which he repeated in 1986. Alongside the booming economy, his major theme was to sell off those parts of the public sector which he didn't think should be in private hands. Labour howled, and from the right some Tories argued he hadn't gone far enough, but after selling off British Airways, BP, British Steel and part-privatising BT, Walker refused to go further, believing that key services should remain in public hands. His undoing was his reform of local government finance; as the minister in the early 1970s who had redrawn the county boundaries, he was always vulnerable in this area. His suggestion to widen the rates and means test individuals caused a storm of fury, almost certainly losing him the 1990 election to Labour's John Smith.
But Labour's first taste of power in two decades came at the worst possible moment. The world economy plunged into an even more severe recession than had been seen in the early 1980s, depriving Labour of the money they had promised for public sector investment. The hard left element in Labour opposed to the EC also played havoc with the Maastricht Treaty in the House of Commons, forcing Smith to rely on new Conservative leader Ken Clarke to help him get the legislation through. Under the strain of all this, Smith died of a heart attack in May 1994. The one figure with the gravitas to hold Labour together was gone, and his replacement, former Chancellor Gordon Brown, was unable to convince voters that the economy was back on track; The Tories were returned in 1995 by a landslide. They would remain in power, first under Clarke and then under Michael Portillo, until the hung parliament of 2010 brought Labour leader David Miliband and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg together in the first coalition government since the Second World War. As the former Liberal Democrat leader, Tony Blair (Leader from 1993-2005) has said, it is an occasion with the hand of history on its shoulder.
1970-1980- Edward Heath (Con)
1980-1990- Peter Walker (Con)
1990-1994- John Smith (Lab)
1994-1995- Gordon Brown (Lab)
1995-2007- Ken Clarke (Con)
2007-2010- Michael Portillo (Con)
2010-2011- David Miliband (Lab)
P.P.S. Labour Leaders, 1970-2011
1970-1975- Harold Wilson
1975-1980- Denis Healey
1980-1982- Tony Benn
1982-1994- John Smith
1994-2000- Gordon Brown
2000-2005- Robin Cook
2005-2011- David Miliband
P.P.P.S. Conservative Leaders, 1970-2011
1970-1980- Edward Heath
1980-1990- Peter Walker
1990-2007- Ken Clarke
2007-2010- Michael Portillo
2010-2011- Michael Gove
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