Ways to Spot a Good Pub

The Scene: A pub in Chipperfield (ie, the middle of nowhere) at 8pm on 28/12; A group of friends are trying to find a pub for a catch up drink and chat


Me (Entering the pub and seeing it's completely empty): Um, sorry to bother you, but are you still open?

Barman: Am now! Do you want me to put some more logs on the fire?

What If... Britain was in the Euro?

The decision by David Cameron to veto the proposed European treaty to solve the Euro has plunged European politics into crisis. With Labour and some Liberal Democrats hounding Cameron for negotiating in bad faith, and for damaging Britain's national interest, Cameron has replied by sounding ever more belligerent. Our presence in the single currency now hangs in the balance.

It all seems so long ago, those heady days of 2003, when the first Euro coins bearing the head of Elizabeth II were unveiled by the Royal Mint. Getting there hadn't been easy, however. When Tony Blair first announced he was keen to join the Euro, early on in his premiership, he faced fierce opposition from his then Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. Brown, and his aid Ed Balls, refused to let Britain join the Euro until the economy had passed five economic tests, which guaranteed that the move would be good for Britain. But after the 2001 election returned Labour with another massive landslide, Blair began to grow impatient. Added to this was the momentum; William Hague's main platform had been 'Save the Pound', and he had been punished at the polls as a result. But still, despite all the urging and pressure, Brown wouldn't budge.

The opportunity to break this impasse came in 2002, when the International Monetary Fund began to seek a new Managing Director, to begin in 2004. Blair put Brown's name forward, and Brown resigned from the government to contest the job, having become fed up with fighting Blair. Into Brown's place Blair appointed the New Labour stalwart Alan Milburn. Despite an enormous backbench rebellion, Milburn managed to force through Parliament a Bill to join the Euro, providing a referendum held in late 2002 was passed.

To almost everyone's amazement, the referendum passed the public vote by 52% to 48%. This came as a surprise to many, not least many in the Cabinet who were expecting it to fail. But with the Conservative Party under Iain Duncan Smith in no position to offer a coherent resistance, the combined efforts of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and a host of smaller parties was enough to overcome public scepticism. The start date for the new currency was 1st January 2004.

At first, the fuss seemed largely pointless. The 'UK Euro' had the Queen's head on it, and the widespread financial chaos predicted never materialised; indeed, some older people observed that the move to decimal had been much worse. Travelling abroad became much easier, while in Northern Ireland the move was widely praised for helping to bolster links with the Republic. Michael Howard's promise to bring back the pound may have won him some votes in the 2005 election, but his party was still badly beaten by Labour. As time went by, the issue faded from people's memory.

Until 2007. The financial crisis which overtook much of Western capitalism placed the European single currency under enormous pressure, exacerbated by the different priorities of the Eurozone countries. With Blair gone, Milburn had now become Prime Minister, and as a response to the near collapse of the UK's banking sector he poured billions of euro into the City of London to help shore it up. The national debt ballooned, and it rapidly became clear that the markets were spooked by this level of debt. The obvious answer would have been to cut interest rates and devalue the currency, but Britain's membership of the Euro prevented this from being done. The markets were briefly calmed by the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in May 2010, but before long the pressure was rising again. Despite slashing public spending as fast and as deep as it could, in the face of enormous public dissent and protests, the government was unable to meet its borrowing requirements, and in November 2011 was forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout. Some have speculated it was the punishment handed out by Gordon Brown when his IMF team stormed in and imposed strict controls on the City which goaded Cameron into using his veto, bringing the UK one step closer to the ultimate goal of both men; to get our own currency back.

Britain, the EU, and Cricket

So it finally happened. A British Prime Minister, sitting in council with the other leaders of the EU, decided to use the nuclear option of EU diplomacy, exercising our veto over a new treaty. Not even Mrs Thatcher, in the two years where she really, *really* hated Europe, went so far as to do this.

Now, I'm not going to go into the politics of it all, largely as I'm not sure where the whole event is going, or what I actually feel about it. But I do have one big question. Why is it that the EU, uniquely in British politics, seems to have become linked to cricket?

Let me give you some examples:

I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late. And in case anyone doubted it, can I assure you there will be no ducking the bouncers, no stonewalling, no playing for time. The bowling's going to get hit all round the ground. That is my style. (Mrs Thatcher, on European trouble in her government, Nov 1990)

It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain. (Sir Geoffrey Howe, about Thatcher's attitude to Europe, Nov 1990)

Game set and match for Britain! (Attributed to John Major, on the Maastricht Treaty, Dec 1991)

John Redwood, the arch-Eurosceptic who challenged Major for Tory leader in 1995, announced his Cabinet resignation while dressed for a cricket match he was in.

And more recently:

Today, Cameron didn't even want to be on the pitch. Even before this summit began, he decided to pull stumps and retreat to the Eurosceptic pavilion. Cameron could have been batting for British interests. Instead, he had put the Tory party's self-interest ahead of Britain's national interest (Ed Miliband, Yesterday)

But the Germans were never going to stump up for that, until they had proper financial controls. (Paddy Ashdown, Yesterday)

Can anyone else see a pattern? Any ideas?!

What If... The Vikings Never Came?

The crisis in the Eurozone has been only a secondary story in England this week; the big question here is whether the English Penny can survive. Following yesterday's talks at Tamworth, the Mercian Finance Minister, George Osborne, has expressed some hope for the single currency, but it all depends on massive cuts to public spending which the Northumbrian Ealdorman, John Prescott, argues that his region can ill afford. Meanwhile, Presidents Salmond, Adams and Heseltine of Scotland, Ireland and Wales have issued a joint statement calling for swift actions lest their economies get harmed too; the pressure on the UK is really hotting up. Of course, these regional differences are nothing new; indeed they have haunted the United Kingdom of England since its formation in the 1400s. Given the long lasting division of the four kingdoms which make up the UK (Wessex, East Anglia, Northumbria and Mercia), this is hardly surprising.

It is odd that this island was spared the Viking onslaught of the eighth and ninth centuries, which might otherwise have transformed the history of the English kingdoms, as happened in France and Ireland. Many historians attribute this to the quick actions by a West Saxon reeve in 789, defeating a Viking party as it came ashore in Dorset. With a lack of easy plunder, the Vikings apparently turned to France, Ireland and to exploring further afield in East and West. Had they focused their efforts on England, it is impossible to know what damage they would have wreaked upon the English kingdoms.

Instead, the delicate power balance between Mercia, Wessex, East Anglia and Northumbria remained in place for much of the Middle Ages, with one state unable to totally dominate the others. The Mercian dominance of the eighth century gave way to a fine balance between Wessex and Mercia through much of the ninth and tenth centuries. In this time of relative peace, the great cultural outpouring of the eighth century continued. The chief military and foreign policy challenges were Welsh or Scottish raiders, or dealing with the odd incursion from Viking Ireland.

This isolated paradise began to change in the eleventh century, when the Viking descended Dukes of Normandy managed to seize control of Wessex in 1066, placing Duke William on the throne as King. This gave Wessex a much more Continental flavour than its Anglo-Saxon cousins, and even today Wessex is the only region to elect a President rather than an Ealdorman, while it insists on calling the Federal Witan a 'Parliament'.

The massive social upheaval caused by the Black Death in the 1340s, and the Hundred Years' War between Wessex and Mercia, caused these kingdoms to decline severely, while East Anglia benefited from the rise in late medieval trade to became immensely rich. The East Anglian King Athelstan XI (1387-1404) has gone down in history as the man who set in motion the United Kingdom of England, by marrying the daughter of Leofwine VI of Northumbria (1340-1392). When, in 1471, the exhausted Royal Family of Wessex ended with the death of the last Plantagenet King Henry VI, the West Saxon Witan invited Athelstan XV (1469-1492) of East Anglia/Northumbria to be its King too. Once secure on the West Saxon throne, Athelstan invaded Mercia, and at the Battle of Bosworth in 1485 defeated the last native Mercian King, Offa XX (1483-1485), who would forever be vilified in history for his murder of his two nephews.

Ever since, the United Kingdom of England has sort of muddled through, always operating as one kingdom through the Federal Witan and central government at Tamworth in Mercia. Over time, the Witan became an elected body, as did the local Witans and Chief Ealdormen. This strong sense of local identity is reflected in the strong regional dialects we have, which makes even reading road signs from one region to the next hard. While the wars of the twentieth century helped to bind the UK together, more recent economic woes have started to pull at the threads. With a Northumbrian referendum on independence pencilled in for 2016, it looks like a rough ride ahead for the Chief Ealdorman David Cameron; it'll take some explaining to Queen Ealhswith II if he has to break up her United Kingdom of England.

What If... Heath Settled With the Miners?

A Britain in economic crisis. Europe looming large in our politics. Spiralling energy prices. The trade unions. Recent events have led many commentators to point to the 1970s for a parallel. The coalition must be praying they are right; the 1970s was after all the decade which ushered in the remarkable twenty years of Conservative rule, and arguably the fifteen which came shortly after too.

If there was any point when this rule came closest to ending between the elections of 1970 and 1990, it was in January 1974. The country was gripped by a huge shortage of fuel following a war in the Middle East and a dispute with the coal miners at home. Things were starting to look desperate for the then Prime Minister, Edward Heath. But finally, he and Joe Gormley, the miners' union leader, were able to hammer out a deal which satisfied the miners' demands. Crucially, Gormley was persuaded at the last minute not to let Harold Wilson, the Labour leader, in on the agreement, thus preventing any wrecking tactics by Labour.

The return to work by the miners enabled the power shortages and the Three Day Week to be brought to an end, and Heath was widely praised for his handling of the crisis. When he called an election in mid-1974, Wilson's complaints fell on deaf ears; Heath was overwhelmingly re-elected. He was thus able to continue with his package of industrial and economic reforms, and as the economy gradually improved he was able to draw back from many of the interventionist positions he had been forced to adopt during the 1970-1974 era. As North Sea oil began to flow ashore, productivity rose and unemployment fell, it looked like Heath's much vaunted economic miracle was about to become reality.

But looks can be deceptive. The sterling crisis of 1976 was a low point for Heath, with Britain forced to take out a loan from the IMF in order to get by, causing the resignation of his Chancellor of the Exchequer Keith Joseph. It was all easy pickings for new Labour leader Denis Healey, and in the 1978 election he cut Heath's majority from 63 to 37. The buoyant economy helped the Prime Minister to survive, along with the news that the IMF loan wasn't really needed anyway due to Treasury miscalculations. Winning the BBC Sports Personality of the Year in 1977 for his second Admiral's Cup sailing victory can't have done him any harm either. And it was a good job he held the election in the summer too, given the epic battles between the trades unions and the government during the 1978-79 'Winter of Discontent'. Luckily, the Trade Union Act of 1975 held firm, and despite an uncomfortable few months, Heath soon emerged victorious in this second clash with the unions.

Edward Heath retired from politics in 1980, his popularity riding high on the back of his rescue of stranded sailors in 1979s Fastnet Race. He handed over to his young Heathite protege Peter Walker. Walker's response to the severe early 1980s recession was a massive programme of investment in British industry to finish what Ted Heath had started. Those in the Tory Party unhappy with such an approach lost the remaining key free-marketer in the Cabinet when the Trade and Industry Secretary, Margaret Thatcher, was sacked by Walker following her assertion that higher unemployment would kick-start the economy. Walker was also lucky in that Labour had also chosen 1980 to change its leader. After a decade out of power, the Labour left had persuaded Tony Benn to challenge Denis Healey, and at a stroke the party ceased to be a credible electable force. The split in the party as right wingers left for the new Social Democrats was hugely damaging to Labour.

The first signs of recovery, a split opposition and Britain's victory in the Falklands gave Walker a landslide victory in 1982, which he repeated in 1986. Alongside the booming economy, his major theme was to sell off those parts of the public sector which he didn't think should be in private hands. Labour howled, and from the right some Tories argued he hadn't gone far enough, but after selling off British Airways, BP, British Steel and part-privatising BT, Walker refused to go further, believing that key services should remain in public hands. His undoing was his reform of local government finance; as the minister in the early 1970s who had redrawn the county boundaries, he was always vulnerable in this area. His suggestion to widen the rates and means test individuals caused a storm of fury, almost certainly losing him the 1990 election to Labour's John Smith.

But Labour's first taste of power in two decades came at the worst possible moment. The world economy plunged into an even more severe recession than had been seen in the early 1980s, depriving Labour of the money they had promised for public sector investment. The hard left element in Labour opposed to the EC also played havoc with the Maastricht Treaty in the House of Commons, forcing Smith to rely on new Conservative leader Ken Clarke to help him get the legislation through. Under the strain of all this, Smith died of a heart attack in May 1994. The one figure with the gravitas to hold Labour together was gone, and his replacement, former Chancellor Gordon Brown, was unable to convince voters that the economy was back on track; The Tories were returned in 1995 by a landslide. They would remain in power, first under Clarke and then under Michael Portillo, until the hung parliament of 2010 brought Labour leader David Miliband and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg together in the first coalition government since the Second World War. As the former Liberal Democrat leader, Tony Blair (Leader from 1993-2005) has said, it is an occasion with the hand of history on its shoulder.

P.S. U.K. Prime Ministers, 1970-2011

1970-1980- Edward Heath (Con)

1980-1990- Peter Walker (Con)

1990-1994- John Smith (Lab)

1994-1995- Gordon Brown (Lab)

1995-2007- Ken Clarke (Con)

2007-2010- Michael Portillo (Con)

2010-2011- David Miliband (Lab)

P.P.S. Labour Leaders, 1970-2011

1970-1975- Harold Wilson

1975-1980- Denis Healey

1980-1982- Tony Benn

1982-1994- John Smith

1994-2000- Gordon Brown

2000-2005- Robin Cook

2005-2011- David Miliband

P.P.P.S. Conservative Leaders, 1970-2011

1970-1980- Edward Heath

1980-1990- Peter Walker

1990-2007- Ken Clarke

2007-2010- Michael Portillo

2010-2011- Michael Gove