What If... The IRA Were Lucky the Second Time?

It is still an event which invokes a great deal of emotion. The images of Number 10 Downing Street reduced to rubble are chilling even today, as one by one the bodies were stretchered down one of the most famous streets in the world. On 7th February 1991, John Major, barely three months into his premiership, held a meeting of his war Cabinet to discuss the situation in the Persian Gulf. As the meeting was breaking up, three mortar bombs, fired by the IRA from a van parked a few streets away, ploughed into the building, killing scores of people. In its triumphal statement, the IRA boasted "Today was our lucky day, today the luck of Britain ran out."

John Major became only the second ever Prime Minister to be assassinated, cutting short his life and creating one of the greatest 'What Ifs' of modern British politics. There have been those who argue that, under Major's leadership, the Conservative Party would not have been as divided as it proved to be in the 1990s, possibly avoiding such a heavy defeat at the hands of Labour in 1995. But since he was Prime Minister for so little time, we simply cannot be sure how he would have fared.

Also dead were his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont, as well as the Defence Secretary, the Energy Secretary and the Attorney General. The Foreign Secretary, Trade and Industry Secretary and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury were all badly injured. Ken Baker, the Home Secretary, stepped in as acting Prime Minister.

The incident shook British public life, especially as British troops prepared to go to war in the Gulf. For the Conservative Party, the most pressing issue was to choose a new leader, the third in four months. Despite calls from some zealous backbenchers, there was little appetite for the return of the recently ousted Margaret Thatcher, who held back from entering the leadership contest. Her arch-enemy, Michael Heseltine, was also out of the question due to the divisive part he had played then. Douglas Hurd, the other participant in the November leadership election, was too badly injured to stand. Instead, Party Chairman Chris Patten stood against the Employment Secretary Michael Howard. Patten won comfortably, and on February 23rd 1991 became Prime Minister.

Patten's first priority was to soothe his traumatised party. The large number of casualties meant a Cabinet reshuffle was inevitable. Patten tried to minimise disruption by keeping as many ministers as possible, or moving people to roles they knew or could easily adapt to. Some new faces appeared, and Lord Whitelaw was persuaded to come out of retirement to act as Party Chairman to help steer the party into the next election; with three Prime Ministers in four months, it was widely felt that an election could not be delayed long.

Policy-wise, Patten and his team got off to a good start. They resisted calls from the Conservative right for a major anti-IRA crackdown, believing that this would simply play into the IRA's hands. Instead, security in Northern Ireland was increased but not excessively, while the Northern Ireland Secretary made a renewed effort to engage the political parties in power sharing talks. Back at home, and to widespread surprise, Patten announced the dropping of the Poll Tax he had introduced while a minister under Thatcher, earning her enmity by saying he'd always hated the idea.

With a new team and fresh ideas energising the party, and a solid British performance in the Gulf War, in September 1991 Patten called an election for the following month. Despite all the opinion polls pointing to a narrow Labour victory or a hung parliament at best, Patten's barnstorming campaign attacking the prospect of higher taxes brought the Tories a record fourth election victory. Despite only clinging onto his Bath seat by 21 votes, nationally the Conservative Party got 14 million votes, another record. However, Britain's First Past the Post system translated this into a vastly reduced overall majority of 15 seats, but no matter; Chris Patten had done it.

Backed by this overwhelming popular mandate, and displaying tough negotiating skills, Patten was able to extract a good deal for Britain in the Maastricht Treaty in the winter of 1991. But from then on in the honeymoon was over and his troubles multiplied. The 1991-95 parliament saw Europe tear the Conservative Party apart, with Patten struggling to get the Maastricht Treaty through Parliament, sacrificing much of his political credibility to do so. Many Tory members were hounded in the press over accusations of sleaze, while in September 1992 Black Wednesday shredded the Tories' claim to economic competence. Despite the new Chancellor, Ken Clarke, presiding over a strong economic recovery from 1993-1995, 16 years of Conservative rule were brought to an end on 1st September 1995, when the youthful new Labour leader Tony Blair secured a crushing 131 seat majority, reducing the Conservatives to a mere 188 seats. In Wales and Scotland the party was reduced to a mere three MPs. One of the high profile losses was Ken Clarke himself, toppled in the much vaunted "Clarke moment" which became the story of the election. Patten immediately resigned as Tory leader, leaving new leader Michael Portillo facing the long climb back to power.

P.S. Conservative Cabinet, February 1991

Prime Minister- Chris Patten

Chancellor of the Exchequer- John MacGregor

Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke

Home Secretary- Ken Baker

Defence Secretary- Malcom Rifkind

Education Secretary- Michael Heseltine

Health Secretary- Stephen Dorrel

Trade and Industry Secretary- David Hunt

Environment Secretary- William Waldegrave

Transport Secretary- George Young

Employment Secretary- Michael Howard

Social Security Secretary- Gillian Shepard

Energy Secretary- Ian Lang

Scottish Secretary- Michael Forsyth

Welsh Secretary- Douglas Hogg

Northern Ireland Secretary- Peter Brooke

Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons- Tony Newton

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Lord Whitelaw

Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Waddington

Lord Chancellor- Lord Mackay

Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Michael Portillo

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- John Gummer

Attorney General- Sir Nicholas Lyell