For all it's faults, the United States of America is the strongest democratic country in the world. Not for nothing does the President still carry the unofficial title 'Leader of the Free World.' So accusations of rigged elections are dangerous. It allows those around the world who are not democrats (small d...) to justify their actions.
The thing is, America has faced problematic elections in the past.
1876
The US Civil War cast a long shadow over the country. Fought between Northern and Southern states over the twin issues of slavery and states' rights, the defeat of the Confederacy led to a period called Reconstruction. The Southern, overwhelmingly Democratic states were garrisoned by the US Army, who also supervised elections, making sure that they were held in accordance with the new laws that banned slavery and discrimination. This led to the election of mainly Republican politicians, including blacks, to governerships, the House and the Senate. Not surprisingly, Southern Democrats hated this policy.
Then came the election of 1876. There were a series of brutal confrontations and intimidations between supporters of both parties. The election went down to the wire. As the results came in, it was clear that the Democrat, Northerner Samuel Tilden, had polled more votes. Indeed, he had taken over half the votes cast, and was one electoral vote short of outright victory. But the results in three states, Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina, were in doubt. Tilden appeared to be ahead of the Republican, Rutherford Hayes, but no one could be sure. As the date for the new president to take office got closer, no solution had been reached.
Until a specially appointed Electoral Commission found that the three states had been won by Hayes. By a single electoral vote, and with a majority of Americans preferring Tilden, Hayes was elected to the presidency. There has been speculation that a deal was struck; the Republicans could keep the White House, but in return federal troops were to be withdrawn from the South. The troops did leave, and the protection they offered to blacks left with them. Reconstruction was ended, possibly thanks to a rigged election. The freed slaves were to suffer dearly during the next century.
Tilden: "Boo Hoo! Ruthy Hayes's got my presidency, and won't give it to me" 1876
1960
1960 is the first potentially rigged election to feature a well-known American political villain. But, for a change, in 1960 the election appears to have been rigged *against* Richard Nixon. The election had been close; no US election has ever been closer.
As the dust settled on the victory for John F Kennedy, the accusations started to fly. The era of political machines was almost over, but not quite. Kennedy had won two states by very narrow margins. His victory in Texas was attributed to the political machine of his vice-presidential candidate, Lyndon B Johnson. There were examples given of counties in Texas were 6000 people had voted, out of 4000 inhabitants.
But even more controversial was the situation in Illinois. Nixon had carried Illinois outside of the city of Chicago. But in Chicago, the political power of the mayor, Richard Daley, delivered the city, the state and the election to Kennedy. Even more sinister, there were accusations swirling that the Kennedy family had asked the mafia to sort out the election in Illinois, in return for the protection of their interests.
Nothing was ever proved in either case. But it is quite possible that one of the giants of American politics became president due to fraud.
John and Bobby Kennedy listening to election night returns, 1960
1968
No electoral fraud here, but possibly something even worse. In 1968, one issue dominated America. The war in Vietnam was turning into a slaughterhouse, with no sign of victory in sight. The war had already forced the sitting president, Lyndon Johnson, to withdraw from the race, as the Democratic party began to collapse amidst the conflict between pro and anti-war factions. The other crisis for the Democrats was that the old Solid South was backing racialist George Wallace of Alabama, rather than official nominee Hubert Humphrey.
Amazingly, despite the near death experience of the Democrats, Humphrey drew level with Richard Nixon, the Republican nominee again after six years in the wilderness. As November approached, it was neck and neck.
As this election was ongoing, there was another drama ongoing. In Paris, the peace negotiators were trying to hammer out a deal between North and South Vietnam. Johnson didn't want his presidency to end in failure, and knew a peace deal would boost Humphrey. The weekend before voting, Johnson called off the American bombing of North Vietnam, and outlined the deal that was about to be agreed.
Nixon panicked. In fact, he panicked so much, that he sent a message to the South Vietnamese, telling them that they would get better terms under a Nixon administration, and so they should reject the deal Johnson had offered. This they duly did. Johnson was livid, telling advisers that Nixon had blood on his hands. But as Johnson had learnt of Nixon's treachery by illegal phone taps, he was unable to reveal what he had done. And so Nixon won the presidency, by the skin of his teeth. Had the American public known he was prepared to sacrifice American lives to do so, they may not have been as willing to vote him in.
Nixon was the one in 1968, but only would he been had people known he'd prolonged a war to win?
1972
Normally, elections are rigged to make sure the 'right person' wins, or to turn a close race into a landslide. By this definition, it is a mystery why on Earth Richard Nixon felt the need to tamper with the 1972 campaign. The Democrats had selected George McGovern as their candidate, who was way to the left of what American opinion would accept. And this proved to be the case. Nixon hammered McGovern, 61% to 38%. Only Massachusetts voted for McGovern; the other 49 states went for Nixon.
This would probably have happened anyway. But there had been some strange events along the way. The campaign of prominent senator Edmund Muskie had collapsed, after he was accused of insulting French-Canadians, and rumours swirled that his wife was an alcoholic. Muskie was forced out of the race, and the road for McGovern was clearer. Then, problems beset the campaign. Problems such as rallies being cancelled, or double booked. Leaflets going missing. Insulting leaflets being handed out. Low level disruption.
And then one night, some burglars were caught in the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee, at the Watergate Hotel. Even as Nixon cruised to victory, in an election he would have won anyway, his efforts to frustrate his opponents were already being revealed. It would prove to be his downfall.
2000
The most obvious example that jumps to mind is the bitter experience of 2000. Al Gore and George W Bush were deadlocked in the Electoral College, although Gore had a clear edge in the popular vote. The state of Florida was close. In fact, it was so close that no one could establish who had actually won. The entire election process was thrown into chaos, as rows erupted over whether the voting machines were faulty, the best method to recount the votes, and whether the ballot papers had been marked correctly. It seems unlikely that thousands of Jewish voters opted for the ultra-conservative Christian firebrand Pat Buchanan, yet that is what their ballot papers seemed to say afterwards.
But this was not fraud, this was farce. The fraud came from the way that the aftermath was handled. The governor of the state is ultimately responsible for elections in their state. In Florida, in 2000, this was George W Bush's younger brother. The person who had the authority to declare and certify the winner was the chair of Bush's Florida campaign team. They did their best to disrupt and frustrate the process at every single stage. The arguments in the courts were designed to keep Bush as the winner, and not to determine the actual winner in the state of Florida. The Democrats presumed FairPlay, and so brought a knife to a gun fight.
Had a full recount been permitted in Florida, across the entire state, it is entirely possible that Al Gore would have emerged the victor. He may not have done either. That is fine. But what happened was not fair. It was what the Bush campaign wanted, and it happened they controlled enough positions in Florida to make it so.
Newsweek reflects the question of the American people, 2000
Why 2016 won't make this list
Compared to the examples, 2016 is unlikely to be remembered as a rigged election. With the exception of 1972 (when God knows what Richard Nixon was on), all of the examples cited above were razor edge close. Because the USA weights the votes of each state in the Electoral College, a close race can be decided by a handful of voters in one or two states. Had Gore been treated fairly in 2000 in Florida, a victory there would have put him over the winning line. Had the commission in 1876 worked out which states had voted for which candidate, Tilden may well have been elected, regardless of any secret deal. A shift of a few thousand votes would have seen a president Nixon in 1961, or a president Humphrey in 1969.
But Trump is not shaping up for a close race. If current polling is anything to go by, he is going to lose to Hillary Clinton by a solid margin, and her lead keeps growing as election day gets nearer. The previous experience of American elections is that, when one person is winning by a landslide, then it's because they are winning by a landslide. It's when it gets close that the chances of a suspicious result rise.
There's also the mechanics of how American elections work, sate by state. The Republican party controls most state-level posts in America, including many of the ones who organise and certify election results. Not only would every single Democrat have to be in on the conspiracy, but a fair chunk of Republican America would have to be involved in depriving their own nominee of the prize. Many Republican officials may not like Trump, but that claim is outlandish. There's no great love for the Clintons amongst the GOP.
There are many reasons Trump will lose this election. But a vast meta-conspiracy to rig the election isn't one of them.
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