But, this also marks the end of an era. A phase in American politics which reaches back to 1992 is coming to a close. The end of the Clinton Era is upon us.
Ask anyone over the age of about 35 and they will be able to tell you where they were when they heard the news. In 1996 Bill Clinton was riding high. He had survived appalling unpopularity in his first term, had seen off his Republican enemies, and won re-election in November. But days later he was dead. Attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the Philippines, Clinton was due to visit a local politician as part of the talks. As his convoy was crossing a bridge, a massive bomb exploded, instantly killing many of those travelling with the President, and causing the bridge to collapse.
Back in Washington, the news was met with disbelief. The Vice-President, Al Gore, was hurriedly found, and informed that he was now the 43rd President of the United States. The American public was stunned. Barely days before, they had chosen Bill Clinton to lead them into the 21st century. Now he was dead.
The shock of the assassination of a US President, the first in 33 years, was felt around the world. Hundreds of world leaders attended Clinton's funeral, and there was near-universal condemnation. At first, communist guerrillas in the Phillippines were blamed. But soon, the blame was shifted to Al-Qaeda, an Islamic inspired terrorist group which had emerged out of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Its leader, Osama Bin Laden, bore a pathological hatred of the West, and America in particular. In 1993, the group had bombed the World Trade Centre in New York. Now they had claimed a much greater scalp.
President Gore spent the winter building a broad based international 'Coalition of the Willing', aiming at UN-led action to capture Bin Laden and bring him to trial. The recently established Taliban government of Afghanistan refused to hand over one of their most prominent supporters. The subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by an international peacekeeping force in the spring of 1997 toppled the Taliban from power before it had a chance to really establish itself in the country. However, UN forces were unable to prevent the escape of Osama Bin Laden, who fled from his mountain stronghold during a gun battle with US special forces. He was to remain at large for another four years.
Back at home, Al Gore urged Congress to pass a comprehensive healthcare reform package, in memory of Clinton. The Republican party did not feel like it could oppose, and so the 'Clintoncare' Act was passed in 1997, establishing universal healthcare and heavily subsidised health insurance. Gore also continued his support for the 'information superhighway', helping to drive the dotcom boom of the late 90s. The big success of his presidency came in 1998, when the federal budget returned a surplus for the first time since 1969. This was repeated in 1999, 2000 and 2001, and Gore was widely credited for this remarkable achievement.
Abroad, the Gore presidency pushed many of the themes of his predecessor. Gore took an active role in the Northern Ireland peace process, helping to drive through a deal by 1998. His thanks to John Major for standing with him in the aftermath of the Clinton assassination had already shaped British politics; Major's efforts to build an international response to the crisis had boosted his poll ratings, helping him to hold Tony Blair's Labour party to a draw in the 1997 election, with a Lib-Lab pact emerging from the hung parliament. Gore found Tony Blair much easier to deal with, seen as the two leaders cooperated over the NATO attack on Yugoslavia in 1999. Gore also tried to push for peace in the Middle East; however, the ongoing war in Afghanistan prevented much attention on that front.
Gore's other big focus was on the environment. In 1997 he signed the Kyoto Accords, committing the USA to big cuts in carbon emissions. The Republican party was furious, and vowed to block the treaty in the Senate. That became moot in November 1998, when the wave of Democratic gains at the mid-term elections delivered the Senate back into Democratic hands. Clinton's widow Hillary was amongst the winners, as the new Senator for New York. The treaty was passed by the Senate, and so the USA was well on the road to becoming one of the leading advocates of a green economy.
As the 2000 election approached, Gore's chances of returning as President looked strong. However, he faced a strong challenge from Texas Governor George W Bush, son of the President that Gore and Clinton had ousted in 1992. Bush hammered his themes of compassionate conservatism, and also criticised Gore for not doing enough to deal with the threat of international terrorism that had got his predecessor. In the event, Gore won narrowly, but only after enormous controversies over the result in Florida.
One of the issues that Bush had attacked Gore on was the decision to sign up to the International Criminal Court. However, in September 2001, US special forces tracked down Osama Bin Laden in a safe house in Pakistan. He was captured in a raid, and Gore was able to triumphantly hand him over to the Court in early 2002. Bin Laden's life sentence in 2004 was greeted across America with relief by most, although a vocal minority wished he had been executed.
Back at home, Al Gore urged Congress to pass a comprehensive healthcare reform package, in memory of Clinton. The Republican party did not feel like it could oppose, and so the 'Clintoncare' Act was passed in 1997, establishing universal healthcare and heavily subsidised health insurance. Gore also continued his support for the 'information superhighway', helping to drive the dotcom boom of the late 90s. The big success of his presidency came in 1998, when the federal budget returned a surplus for the first time since 1969. This was repeated in 1999, 2000 and 2001, and Gore was widely credited for this remarkable achievement.
Abroad, the Gore presidency pushed many of the themes of his predecessor. Gore took an active role in the Northern Ireland peace process, helping to drive through a deal by 1998. His thanks to John Major for standing with him in the aftermath of the Clinton assassination had already shaped British politics; Major's efforts to build an international response to the crisis had boosted his poll ratings, helping him to hold Tony Blair's Labour party to a draw in the 1997 election, with a Lib-Lab pact emerging from the hung parliament. Gore found Tony Blair much easier to deal with, seen as the two leaders cooperated over the NATO attack on Yugoslavia in 1999. Gore also tried to push for peace in the Middle East; however, the ongoing war in Afghanistan prevented much attention on that front.
Gore's other big focus was on the environment. In 1997 he signed the Kyoto Accords, committing the USA to big cuts in carbon emissions. The Republican party was furious, and vowed to block the treaty in the Senate. That became moot in November 1998, when the wave of Democratic gains at the mid-term elections delivered the Senate back into Democratic hands. Clinton's widow Hillary was amongst the winners, as the new Senator for New York. The treaty was passed by the Senate, and so the USA was well on the road to becoming one of the leading advocates of a green economy.
As the 2000 election approached, Gore's chances of returning as President looked strong. However, he faced a strong challenge from Texas Governor George W Bush, son of the President that Gore and Clinton had ousted in 1992. Bush hammered his themes of compassionate conservatism, and also criticised Gore for not doing enough to deal with the threat of international terrorism that had got his predecessor. In the event, Gore won narrowly, but only after enormous controversies over the result in Florida.
One of the issues that Bush had attacked Gore on was the decision to sign up to the International Criminal Court. However, in September 2001, US special forces tracked down Osama Bin Laden in a safe house in Pakistan. He was captured in a raid, and Gore was able to triumphantly hand him over to the Court in early 2002. Bin Laden's life sentence in 2004 was greeted across America with relief by most, although a vocal minority wished he had been executed.
But by the middle of Al Gore's second term, the US public was starting to get tired of Democratic party rule. The US economy was stuttering, major reforms were being blocked by Congress, and there were still US forces in Afghanistan. The Iraq Crisis was widely seen as a failed attempt to reign in Saddam Hussein by using the UN to inspect his weapon facilities; airstrikes against the regime in the spring of 2003 did not placate those Republicans calling for an invasion.
But Al Gore was unable to run for the Presidency again; indeed, he would be the second longest serving US president in history, at eight years and two months. So in 2004 he watched as John McCain beat the Democratic candidate, Howard Dean, to the White House. However, Gore left with solid approval ratings, and in 2007 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, for his efforts to combat climate change.
President McCain was dealt a terrible hand by history. Months after coming to office, the government was blamed for its terrible handling of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. One of McCain's key ideas, the partial-privatisation of Social Security, got bogged down in Congress. America's foreign policy became much more aggressive- the on-off conflict with Saddam rumbled on, and McCain also began to make threatening moves towards North Korea and Iran too. The return of US troops from Afghanistan in 2007 was a major success for the administration, but there were fears amongst many that they would soon be used in an attack on Iraq.
One of McCain's biggest initial successes was the US economy, which continued to boom at first. Then the sub-prime mortgage crisis began to bite. McCain looked vulnerable in 2008. Then, in the final few weeks of the campaign, the US economy went into meltdown, as a financial crisis engulfed the country. Many feared a repeat of the Great Depression. Despite his attempts to blame Gore, many voters blamed the Republicans, and so it was they returned in droves to a party and a name they knew they could trust. The Democrats had turned to another Clinton, and in November 2008 she narrowly ousted McCain from the White House.
The second President Clinton has proved just as popular, if not more so, than the first. Her measures to rescue the US economy took time to work, but now America is growing again. Her push for further healthcare benefits may have provoked a huge backlash, but her argument it was fulfilling her husband's legacy helped win the day. She will probably be best remembered for her social reforms, as LGBT equality has improved dramatically under her administration. Abroad, her support for the Arab Spring helped to topple dictators across the Middle East, from Saddam to Gaddafi, although the descent of Syria into civil war has been a blight on her presidency. Moves to bring Iran in from the cold have finally borne fruit. However, the comprehensive Middle Eastern peace deal is still as elusive as ever. Her re-election in 2012 was helped by the split in the Republican party, as maverick right-winger Sarah Palin ran on a third-party, Tea Party, platform, thus helping to destroy Mitt Romney's campaign and deliver Clinton a landslide.
But now the Clinton era is coming to an end. Her likely successor is shaping up to be the junior Senator who gave her a run for her money in 2008, when the Democratic primaries proved far more challenging than she had ever dreamed. Whoever emerges from the chaotic Republican nomination, they will be hard pressed to defeat Senator Barack Obama.
US Presidents, 1989-2017
1989-1993- George Bush- R
1993-1996- Bill Clinton- D
1996-2005- Al Gore- D
2005-2009- John McCain- R
2009-2017- Hillary Clinton- D
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N.B. If you think the premise of this What If is daft, go and look it up. Had the bridge not been checked 'just in case'. Bill Clinton would have died just before the end of his first term...
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