What If... Bill Clinton was Assassinated by Al-Qaeda?

This weekend sees the US Presidential election kick off in earnest. Voters in Iowa are starting to cast their votes for the party nomination. On the Republican side, the race is in chaos, with Donald Trump's intervention having turned the party on its head. For the Democrats, their nominee is obvious. Ever since failing to beat the current President to the nomination in 2008, the Democrats have know their 2016 candidate.

But, this also marks the end of an era. A phase in American politics which reaches back to 1992 is coming to a close. The end of the Clinton Era is upon us.

Ask anyone over the age of about 35 and they will be able to tell you where they were when they heard the news. In 1996 Bill Clinton was riding high. He had survived appalling unpopularity in his first term, had seen off his Republican enemies, and won re-election in November. But days later he was dead. Attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the Philippines, Clinton was due to visit a local politician as part of the talks. As his convoy was crossing a bridge, a massive bomb exploded, instantly killing many of those travelling with the President, and causing the bridge to collapse.

Back in Washington, the news was met with disbelief. The Vice-President, Al Gore, was hurriedly found, and informed that he was now the 43rd President of the United States. The American public was stunned. Barely days before, they had chosen Bill Clinton to lead them into the 21st century. Now he was dead.

The shock of the assassination of a US President, the first in 33 years, was felt around the world. Hundreds of world leaders attended Clinton's funeral, and there was near-universal condemnation. At first, communist guerrillas in the Phillippines were blamed. But soon, the blame was shifted to Al-Qaeda, an Islamic inspired terrorist group which had emerged out of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Its leader, Osama Bin Laden, bore a pathological hatred of the West, and America in particular. In 1993, the group had bombed the World Trade Centre in New York. Now they had claimed a much greater scalp.

President Gore spent the winter building a broad based international 'Coalition of the Willing', aiming at UN-led action to capture Bin Laden and bring him to trial. The recently established Taliban government of Afghanistan refused to hand over one of their most prominent supporters. The subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by an international peacekeeping force in the spring of 1997 toppled the Taliban from power before it had a chance to really establish itself in the country. However, UN forces were unable to prevent the escape of Osama Bin Laden, who fled from his mountain stronghold during a gun battle with US special forces. He was to remain at large for another four years.

Back at home, Al Gore urged Congress to pass a comprehensive healthcare reform package, in memory of Clinton. The Republican party did not feel like it could oppose, and so the 'Clintoncare' Act was passed in 1997, establishing universal healthcare and heavily subsidised health insurance. Gore also continued his support for the 'information superhighway', helping to drive the dotcom boom of the late 90s. The big success of his presidency came in 1998, when the federal budget returned a surplus for the first time since 1969. This was repeated in 1999, 2000 and 2001, and Gore was widely credited for this remarkable achievement.

Abroad, the Gore presidency pushed many of the themes of his predecessor. Gore took an active role in the Northern Ireland peace process, helping to drive through a deal by 1998. His thanks to John Major for standing with him in the aftermath of the Clinton assassination had already shaped British politics; Major's efforts to build an international response to the crisis had boosted his poll ratings, helping him to hold Tony Blair's Labour party to a draw in the 1997 election, with a Lib-Lab pact emerging from the hung parliament. Gore found Tony Blair much easier to deal with, seen as the two leaders cooperated over the NATO attack on Yugoslavia in 1999. Gore also tried to push for peace in the Middle East; however, the ongoing war in Afghanistan prevented much attention on that front.

Gore's other big focus was on the environment. In 1997 he signed the Kyoto Accords, committing the USA to big cuts in carbon emissions. The Republican party was furious, and vowed to block the treaty in the Senate. That became moot in November 1998, when the wave of Democratic gains at the mid-term elections delivered the Senate back into Democratic hands. Clinton's widow Hillary was amongst the winners, as the new Senator for New York. The treaty was passed by the Senate, and so the USA was well on the road to becoming one of the leading advocates of a green economy.

As the 2000 election approached, Gore's chances of returning as President looked strong. However, he faced a strong challenge from Texas Governor George W Bush, son of the President that Gore and Clinton had ousted in 1992. Bush hammered his themes of compassionate conservatism, and also criticised Gore for not doing enough to deal with the threat of international terrorism that had got his predecessor. In the event, Gore won narrowly, but only after enormous controversies over the result in Florida.

One of the issues that Bush had attacked Gore on was the decision to sign up to the International Criminal Court. However, in September 2001, US special forces tracked down Osama Bin Laden in a safe house in Pakistan. He was captured in a raid, and Gore was able to triumphantly hand him over to the Court in early 2002. Bin Laden's life sentence in 2004 was greeted across America with relief by most, although a vocal minority wished he had been executed.

But by the middle of Al Gore's second term, the US public was starting to get tired of Democratic party rule. The US economy was stuttering, major reforms were being blocked by Congress, and there were still US forces in Afghanistan. The Iraq Crisis was widely seen as a failed attempt to reign in Saddam Hussein by using the UN to inspect his weapon facilities; airstrikes against the regime in the spring of 2003 did not placate those Republicans calling for an invasion.

But Al Gore was unable to run for the Presidency again; indeed, he would be the second longest serving US president in history, at eight years and two months. So in 2004 he watched as John McCain beat the Democratic candidate, Howard Dean, to the White House. However, Gore left with solid approval ratings, and in 2007 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, for his efforts to combat climate change.

President McCain was dealt a terrible hand by history. Months after coming to office, the government was blamed for its terrible handling of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. One of McCain's key ideas, the partial-privatisation of Social Security, got bogged down in Congress. America's foreign policy became much more aggressive- the on-off conflict with Saddam rumbled on, and McCain also began to make threatening moves towards North Korea and Iran too. The return of US troops from Afghanistan in 2007 was a major success for the administration, but there were fears amongst many that they would soon be used in an attack on Iraq.

One of McCain's biggest initial successes was the US economy, which continued to boom at first. Then the sub-prime mortgage crisis began to bite. McCain looked vulnerable in 2008. Then, in the final few weeks of the campaign, the US economy went into meltdown, as a financial crisis engulfed the country. Many feared a repeat of the Great Depression. Despite his attempts to blame Gore, many voters blamed the Republicans, and so it was they returned in droves to a party and a name they knew they could trust. The Democrats had turned to another Clinton, and in November 2008 she narrowly ousted McCain from the White House.

The second President Clinton has proved just as popular, if not more so, than the first. Her measures to rescue the US economy took time to work, but now America is growing again. Her push for further healthcare benefits may have provoked a huge backlash, but her argument it was fulfilling her husband's legacy helped win the day. She will probably be best remembered for her social reforms, as LGBT equality has improved dramatically under her administration. Abroad, her support for the Arab Spring helped to topple dictators across the Middle East, from Saddam to Gaddafi, although the descent of Syria into civil war has been a blight on her presidency. Moves to bring Iran in from the cold have finally borne fruit. However, the comprehensive Middle Eastern peace deal is still as elusive as ever. Her re-election in 2012 was helped by the split in the Republican party, as maverick right-winger Sarah Palin ran on a third-party, Tea Party, platform, thus helping to destroy Mitt Romney's campaign and deliver Clinton a landslide.

But now the Clinton era is coming to an end. Her likely successor is shaping up to be the junior Senator who gave her a run for her money in 2008, when the Democratic primaries proved far more challenging than she had ever dreamed. Whoever emerges from the chaotic Republican nomination, they will be hard pressed to defeat Senator Barack Obama.

US Presidents, 1989-2017

1989-1993- George Bush- R
1993-1996- Bill Clinton- D
1996-2005- Al Gore- D
2005-2009- John McCain- R
2009-2017- Hillary Clinton- D

_________________________________________________________________________________

N.B. If you think the premise of this What If is daft, go and look it up. Had the bridge not been checked 'just in case'. Bill Clinton would have died just before the end of his first term...

Donald Trump Fact-Check #1- Muslims Celebrating 9/11

Here is a picture:

It shows two women lighting a candle.

More surprising is the story behind it. It was taken in 2001. In September. In Iran.

Days before this picture was taken, the most appalling terrorist attacks the world has ever seen had unfolded in the United States. Hijacked aeroplanes had ploughed into the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon. Thousands had died, and many thousands more were injured. The World Trade Centre complex had been destroyed. It could have been even worse. A plane had crashed in rural Pennsylvania, when the passengers had fought the hijackers for control of the plane. It is believed that it was intended for the White House, or maybe the Capitol building.

These two women are attending a candlelit vigil in Tehran. The country which denounced America as the Great Satan was holding a public service to pray for the dead. The next major football match was introduced with a two minutes silence. The Supreme Leader of Iran,  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, condemned the bloodshed.

Khamenei's was not the only prominent voice condemning those who had brought death and destruction to the streets of New York. Every single nation on Earth bar one spoke out, offering condolences and assistance. That lone voice was Saddam Hussein, shortly to meet his demise at American hands. But even countries considered enemies of the West, both then and now, rallied to the USA. North Korea. Russia. China. Syria, under new President Bashaar Al Assad. Libya, still lead by despot Colonel Qaddafi. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation under Yasser Arafat. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. The leader of Hamas. All denounced the barbarity that had unfolded on that horrific day.

So, the next time Donald Trump announces that all Muslims hate America, and that there were celebrations around the world when 9/11 struck, do not listen to him. Remember instead the two women in this picture, who had decided to attend a vigil to show solidarity with a country their government had spent years saying was the epitome of evil. Who decided to offer what they could to show that this act of appalling bloodshed had not been done in their name, and that they were united in their support for the people of America.

Donald, on this one, you score a solid zero.

Resigning in Style

Although no one could possibly know it, it was the beginning of the end. A fuse had been lit which would eventually destroy the government.

1985 saw UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at the height of her powers. She had survived the turbulence of her first term in office, and had ridden victory in the Falklands War to a landslide. Labour was in a state of nervous breakdown, as the party split between hard left and the centre. The SDP and the Liberals had fatally split the opposition. The Miner's Strike had seen the NUM humbled, and with it the whole trades union movement.

And as 1986 dawned, it all looked as if it was going wrong. A bizarre scandal briefly engulfed the Thatcher administration. It all centred around a helicopter company in Somerset. For years, Westland Helicopters had been struggling, despite huge orders for its military helicopters. An American company, Sikorsky, offered to step in and rescue the firm. The Prime Minister, and the board of Westland, were delighted. But the Defence Secretary was not happy. He preferred a takeover by a European defence consortium.

This was an argument on many levels. On the one hand, it was about the fundamental split in opinion over Britain's place in the world which has dogged this country since the Second World War. Are we a European power, or America's primary ally? Do we look to Brussels, or to Washington? Mrs Thatcher was an Atlanticist, Michael Heseltine, her Defence Secretary, was a European.

It was also about power. Heseltine was the most serious threat to Thatcher's authority within the Conservative party. He gave barnstorming conference performances. He was not from her ideological wing, being more of a Heathite. He was charismatic and was good on TV, as shown by his performance in Liverpool after the riots in 1981, and when he faced down the anti-nuclear protesters at Greenham Common. Above all, he had hair to rival Thatchers.

So what seemed to be a pointless row reached epic proportions, with briefing and leaks galore. As Cabinet began on 9th January 1986, Thatcher read a statement insisting that all statements on Westland had to be cleared by her. Heseltine saw this as a move to silence him. So he resigned.

Not later that day, in the form of a statement or speech. He stood up in Cabinet, told them he could not carry on, and stormed out. The first person to be informed was the BBC journalist waiting outside Number 10. What a scoop that was.

In the end, Thatcher survived Westland. The Labour party failed to press home its advantage, and she survived the parliamentary debate apparently unscathed.

But, it was the beginning of the end for her. Heseltine remained lurking in the shadows for the next four years, biding his time. And when her government was truly beleagured, in the autumn of 1990, Heseltine struck. His leadership challenge sank Thatcher. The fuse lit on a January morning nearly five years earlier had come back to destroy her.

Heseltine resigning from the Cabinet, 9th July 1986

You, Sir, Are No Tony Blair

Finally, Jeremy Corbyn has done it. Many said he never would, but he has proved his critics wrong.

Since he left office in 2007, many have said that Labour will struggle to find someone who can outdo Tony Blair. The winner of three general elections. Two of them were colossal landslides, as Blair's New Labour created a coalition which could win from the Scottish Highlands to the Sussex coast. Blair's legacy may be mixed, but there is no doubting it is massive. It would take some political talent to surpass him.

And Jeremy Corbyn has done it. He has finally shown that he can outdo Tony Blair.

One of Blair's great weaknesses was reshuffles. Months of agonising were followed by hours of agony on the day. They never went to plan. The wrong decisions were made. Gordon Brown was always an obstacle to overcome. Blair so hated sacking people he once managed to let a Cabinet minister leave without telling them that they had been sacked. For a few hours, there were two people with the same government job.

Pointless new names were invented for government departments, my personal favourite being the Department of Productivity, Employment and Industry, which was hurriedly changed back to Trade and Industry when someone pointed out the minister would be the PEnI Secretary.

However, all of this pales into insignificance when Blair abolished the office of Lord Chancellor, until realising that tearing down an institution so old no one knew how old it was might pose some problems. The Lord Chancellor was not like any other cabinet role. It was ingrained into the system. The Lord Chancellor presided in the Lords, was the head of the judiciary, and was written into thousands of laws over the years, all of which became completely unworkable overnight.

The incumbent refused to agree to the changes, and so he was sacked. The new Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs, Lord Falconer, was hurriedly dispatched to the House of Lords to sit on the Woolsack, as a concession to Lords and judges outraged by the botched process. As an example of how not to reshuffle your government, it came pretty high up.

And yet Corbyn has put Blair to shame. In the first two days, a grand total of one change has been made. Surely people across the land talked of nothing else on Tuesday night than the sacking of the Shadow Secretary for Culture, Media and Sport.

Or maybe they haven't noticed. Maybe they would have noticed something if Labour had been doing the job that falls to them, opposing the government. Instead, the Tories are getting away with more and more. While Labour frets over whether their Shadow Cabinet reshuffle was too slow.

So well done Jeremy. In this, at least, you've shown yourself to be more than Blair. But when it comes to elections, where it all counts, you, sir, are no Tony Blair.

State of the Nation: 1016

Here in this year King Cnut came with his raiding-army of 160 ships, and Ealdorman Eadric with him, over the Thames into Mercia at Cricklade, and then turned into Warwickshire, during the midwinter festival, and raided and burned and killed all that they came to. 

Then the aetheling Edmund began to gather an army; then when the army was assembled, nothing would suit them but that the king were there and that they have the help of the garrison from London. Then they left off the campaign and each man took himself home. Then after the festival,the army was ordered again, on full penalty, that each man who was fit should go forth; then the king in London was sent to, and asked that he come to join the army with the help which he could gather. Then when they all came together, it did not achieve any more than it often did before. Then when it was made known to the king that one who should have been of help to him wanted to betray him, [he] left the army and turned back to London.

Then the aetheling Edmund rode to Northumbria to Earl Uhtred, and everybody supposed that they wanted to assemble an army against King Cnut; then they travelled into Staffordshire and into Shrewsbury and to Chester and they raided on their [own] side and Cnut on his; and turned himself then out through Buckinghamshire into Bedfordshire, and from there to Huntingdonshire, along the fen to Stamford, and then into Lincolnshire, from there to Nottinghamshire, and so to Northumbria towards York. Then when Uhtred learned this, he left off his raiding and hastened northwards, and then of necessity submitted, and all the Northumbrians with him; and he gave hostages - and nevertheless he was killed, and Thurcytel, Nafena's son, with him. And then after that, King Cnut set Eric as earl in Northumbria just as Uhtred was, and afterwards turned himself southwards another way, wholly to the west. And all the raiding-army then came to the ships before Easter, and the aetheling Edmund turned to London to his father; and then, after Easter, the king Cnut turned towards London with all his ships.

Then it happened that, before the ships came, the king Aethelred passed away. He ended his days on St George's Day, after great toil and difficulties in his life. And then, after his end, all the councillors who were in London, and the garrison chose Edmund for king, and he resolutely defended his kingdom for as long as his time was.

Then at the Rogation Days the [Danish] ships came to Greenwich, and within a little while turned to London; and then dug a great ditch on the south side and dragged their ships to the west side of the bridge, and afterwards bedyked the town around so that no one could get in or out, and regularly attacked the town, but they resolutely withstood them. King Edmund had gone out then before that, and then rode into Wessex, and all the people submitted to him; and quickly after that he fought against the raiding-army at Penselwood near Gillingham, and he fought another fight after midsummer at Sherston, and there a great slaughter fell on either side, and the raiding-armies themselves broke off the fight. And Ealdorman Eadric and Aelfmeer Darling were helping the raiding-army against King Edmund. And then for the 3rd time he gathered an army, and travelled to London and rescued the garrison and drove the raiding-army to the ships. And then it was two days later that the king turned over at Brentford, and fought against the raiding-army and put them to flight; and there many of the English people were drowned through their own carelessness when they travelled in front of the army and wanted to seize loot. And after that the king turned to Wessex and assembled his army. Then the raiding-army immediately turned to London and besieged the town, and attacked it strongly both by water and by land, but the Almighty God rescued it.

After that the raiding-army turned away from London with their ships into the Orwell, and there went inland and travelled into Mercia, and killed and burned whatsoever they came across, as was their custom, and provided themselves with supplies, and they drove both the ships and their herds to the Medway. Then for the 4th time King Edmund assembled the entire English nation and travelled over the Thames at Brentford, and travelled into Kent, and the raiding-army fled before him with their horses into Sheppey, and the king killed as many of them as he could overtake. And Ealdorman Eadric then turned to join the king at Aylesford. There was no more unwise decision than this was. The raiding-army turned back up into Essex and travelled into Mercia and did for all that it travelled over. 

Then, when the king learned that the raiding-army was inland, he assembled the entire the English nation for the 5th time and travelled behind them and overtook them in Essex at the hill which is called Ashingdon, and there resolutely joined battle.Then Ealdorman Eadric did as he so often did before, first started the flight -with the Magonsaete - and thus betrayed his royal lord and the whole nation. There Cnut had the victory and won himself all England. There was killed Eadnoth, and Abbot Wulfsige, and Ealdorman Aelfric, and Ealdorman Godwine, Ulfcytel from East Anglia, and Aethelweard, son of Ealdorman Aethelsige, and all the chief men in the English race.

Then after this fight King Cnut turned inland with his raiding-army to Gloucestershire, where he heard tell that Edmund the king was. Then Ealdorman Eadric and the councillors who were there advised that the kings make a pact between them; and they granted hostages between them, and the kings came together at Ola's Island, and there affirmed their friendship, both with pledge and with oath, and set the payment for the raiding-army; and with this pact they parted, and King Edmund succeeded to Wessex and Cnut to Mercia.

Then the raiding-army turned to the ships with the things they had seized, and the inhabitants of London made a truce with the raiding-army and bought peace from them; and the raiding-army brought their ships to London, and took winter-quarters for themselves in there.

Then, on St Andrew's Day, Edmund the king passed away, and is buried with his grandfather Edgar in Glastonbury.

Entry in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle for 1016. Makes any problems we have this year seem fairly low-key...