What If... Michael Portillo led the Tories?

As Westminster breaks for the summer recess, the government can finally breathe a sigh of relief. It has been a dramatic few weeks for them, following the political turmoil which has surrounded the last few months. But attention is finally moving away from the coalition and onto the bitter leadership crisis amongst the Opposition.

But we've been here before. We go back to the summer of 2001. For the second time, Tony Blair's New Labour has won an earth-shattering landslide, with the Tory leader William Hague barely denting Labour's majority. Hague resigned, and the race was on to find a replacement.

The final three candidates were veteran bruiser Kenneth Clarke, former Maastricht rebel Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Portillo, who in the 1990s had been an ardent Thatcherite but had now flipped to a position of social liberalism. Portillo had been widely expected to become leader in 1997, but his infamous ousting from Enfield Southgate on election night had put paid to that idea. But now his time was upon him. By a single vote, he secured his place in the final round against Ken Clarke. The long summer campaign saw Clarke and Portillo battle it out up and down the country, pitching to Conservative party members. In the end, the result surprised many. The party faithful had opted for Portillo despite his unforgiving message of modernisation. Clarke, clearly devastated at being pipped to the post again, retired to the backbenches.

Portillo had already hinted at his modernisation agenda as Shadow Chancellor, when he had committed the Conservatives to the National Minimum Wage and to recognising the independence of the Bank of England. But now, as leader, Portillo grasped this theme. He began to espouse a theme he called compassionate Conservatism, calling not for reduced state spending but for it to be better targeted and moved away from Whitehall. On the economy, he called for "corporate social responsibility." At the time, this was merely a catchphrase, but would have huge implications later on. Admittedly, much of this sounded very like what Tony Blair said, and the reaction amongst the Tory press, not to mention party grandees such as Norman Tebitt, was little short of hysterical. Portillo was hounded by the press, the Daily Mail in particular going for his homosexual past.

And yet, the public began to come round to Portillo. He was helped enormously in 2002, when he used the summer recess to live undercover for a TV show standing in as a single parent for a week. The press and Labour dismissed this as a mere gimmick. Viewers were more impressed. Back in the world of politics, Portillo committed the Tories to supporting much of Blair's public service reform agenda, but with qualifications. This had the bonus effect of causing serious tensions between Blair and his arch-rival, Gordon Brown. His other great coup was to persuade Michael Howard and Ken Clarke out of their self-imposed exiles on the backbenches, helping to soothe fears amongst veterans over his attempts to broaden the image of the party. But whether Portillo would have won in 2005 without Iraq is another question.

The Conservatives were initially enthusiastic backers of the war, at least officially. After all, Blair had tried to get a UN resolution, and had credible evidence. But when neither international support nor the infamous Weapons of Mass Destruction were forthcoming, the position changed. Portillo was keen to stress his personal support for the armed forces; he was, after all, a former Defence Secretary. But as Iraq descended into anarchy, it was all too easy to blame Blair for misleading the public and failing to prepare for the aftermath. The Blair government was looking increasingly cornered.

Combined with a socially liberal, centre-ground manifesto, this sense of chaos helped push Blair out of No 10 in May 2005, with the Conservatives making huge ground from their 2001 drubbing but still only having a majority of two. Portillo's opponents were silenced by the sheer amount of ground he had recovered, and early on he handled the G8 summit and 2005 London terror attacks superbly. But it was clear that this government would not last the full term, so in May 2007 Portillo called a snap election and increased his majority to a safe 62. Labour had ousted Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had moved in to claim his crown, but when pitched against such a formidable campaigner as Portillo he didn't stand a chance.

Armed with this huge mandate, Portillo got stuck in to the reform and reorientation of Britain's public services, with Tim Collins and Andrew Lansley offering huge new freedoms to schools and hospitals. At the Home Office, arch-libertarian David Davis set about tearing up Labour's restriction of civil liberties legislation in alliance with Ken Clarke, the new Justice Secretary. The disquiet of grandees over what they saw as pointless tinkering was kept at bay by Portillo's haggling over the Lisbon Treaty. Portillo was also helped by the collapse of Gordon Brown's authority on the Labour benches, as David Miliband launched a protracted campaign to oust him.

But then came the financial crash, which arguably cut short Portillo's premiership. Some of his response was textbook, his recapitalisation scheme showing he was no economic lightweight. He also reinforced his political authority within the Conservative Party by sacking long time ally Francis Maude, who exacerbated the run on Northern Rock by suggesting that customers kept their money under their pillows rather than investing it. The idea of 'responsible capitalism' he had been promoting since he became leader struck a chord with the public, while Gordon Brown's association with the old system finished off his political career for good. Portillo's Euroscepticism also enabled him to criticise the Eurozone's troubles, helping to stem the rise of UKIP.

Unfortunately, having spent billions in propping up the banking sector, Portillo and his new Chancellor, Philip Hammond, then went and squandered the public support by starting to make drastic cuts to public spending in order to balance the books. While the Tory faithful were delighted, floating voters were less than impressed. In 2012 the UK economy plunged back into recession, while the government was also battered by scandals involving the closeness of David Cameron and George Osborne to News International, while Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms finally began to unravel. Hammond's last budget, in 2012, was widely considered a disaster, and at the May election Labour emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament, having promised to ease the pace of cuts and focus more on tax rises and boosting growth. Portillo was forced to resign and watch a Lab-Lib pact take power. But attention is now starting to shift away from the novelty of the coalition, and onto the Tory leadership race; will William Hague get his chance to shine again, or will David Davis' reputation for reversing Labour's measures be enough to hand him victory?

P.S. Portillo Cabinet, 2005

Prime Minister- Michael Portillo
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Francis Maude
Foreign Secretary- Michael Howard
Home Secretary- David Davis
Justice Secretary- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- William Hague
Education and Skills Secretary- Tim Collins
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Trade and Industry Secretary- Philip Hammond
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Transport Secretary- Sir George Young
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Yeo
Local Government Secretary- Caroline Spelman
Families and Equalities Secretary- Eleanor Laing
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- David Cameron
International Development Secretary- John Bercow
Scottish Secretary- David Mundell
Welsh Secretary- Liam Fox
Northern Irish Secretary- Eric Pickles
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- George Osborne
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Strathclyde
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Oliver Letwin

P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2012

Prime Minister- David Miliband (Labour)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council- Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Liberal Democrat)
Foreign Secretary- Hilary Benn (Labour)
Home Secretary and First Secretary of State- Yvette Cooper (Labour)
Justice Secretary- Alan Johnson (Labour)
Defence Secretary- Jim Murphy (Labour)
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham (Labour)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat)
Welfare Secretary- Liam Byrne (Labour)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Labour)
Transport Secretary- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Harriet Harman (Labour)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Ed Miliband (Labour)
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander (Labour)
Culture, Media, Sports and the Olympics Secretary- Tom Watson (Labour)
Scottish Secretary- Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Labour)
Northern Irish Secretary- Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Rachel Reeves (Labour)
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Alan Beith (Liberal Democrat)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall (Liberal Democrat)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Jon Cruddas (Labour)
Minister without Portfolio- Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat)