What If... President McCain?

With the attention of the world focused on London this month for the Olympics, the arrival of the US presidential hopeful from the Republican Party shouldn't have merited too much attention. Of course, everyone had reckoned without his infamous ability to put his foot in it. The former state governor managed to insult our preparations, 'look down the backside of Number 10' (not a good image), gain the ire of both David Cameron and Boris Johnson, and to cap it all forgot Ed Miliband's name during an interview with him (although in fairness, that's hardly uncommon over here too...). To the embattled President Obama, these events are gold dust in the fight he has to remain in the White House come November. But it still won't be easy. The last Democrat incumbent of the White House, Bill Clinton, found it impossible to pass on the presidency to his Vice-President Al Gore, and Obama has stirred far more than emotions than Gore ever managed.

Given how the tumultuous events of the last twelve years have unfolded, 2000 seems like a very different world. A popular and flamboyant Mayor of London was settling into his job, fuel protests caused panic-buying of petrol, the English football team did terribly in the Euros, Tony Blair saw a dent in his popularity, while the attention of the country was totally focused on a building site in East London. Ok, but apart from that...

However, the big event of the year was to happen in the US. The presidential election was widely predicted to be a race between Vice-President Al Gore and Republican grandee George Bush Jnr, whose dad had been President from 1989-1993. Bush was popular amongst conservative Republicans, but his message could appeal to some swing voters. However, the younger Bush was not to be given an easy ride. He was challenged in the Republican primaries by the maverick Senator, John McCain. McCain was no ordinary Republican. A former US Navy pilot and prisoner of war in Vietnam, John McCain showed an uncanny ability to reach out to voters beyond the Republican's core vote. This slowly began to win him support amongst the Republican Party, and after his spectacular victory in the South Carolina primary, Bush knew that the game was up. Bush quit the race in March and returned to Texas. The road was open for a McCain presidency. However, to keep the Bush supporters onside, McCain still consulted with Bush and accepted his recommendation of Dick Cheney for Vice-President. Over the long summer, McCain's Straight Talking Express toured the USA, denouncing Gore and promoting his own platform.

But when the general election came in November, not even the most informed pundits could guess how close the result would be. The two candidates appeared to be neck and neck, until, in the small hours of Wednesday morning, the state of Florida was declared to have narrowly gone for McCain. But it had been close nationally too, with McCain leading Gore by a mere half a percent in the popular vote. Luckily, the electoral vote margin was much larger, and this is what counted, despite the whisperings from the Bush family that George could have done better. So come January 2001, it was John McCain who was sworn in as the 43rd President of the United States of America.

What McCain's presidency would have looked like without the tragic events of September 11th we will never know. His response was judged to be excellent; within hours he was touring Ground Zero, vowing help for those afflicted and revenge on those who had attacked America. The subsequent war in Afghanistan may have failed to capture Osama Bin Laden, but it did deprive the Taliban of a valuable operations base, and also provided President McCain the opportunity to demonstrate his new foreign policy strategy of 'rogue state roll-back,' whereby the US and its NATO allies trained and equipped forces within enemy states in order to help bring them down. The end result was that by 2003 NATO forces felt confident enough to withdraw from Afghanistan, leaving a well trained Afghan National Army behind.

This quick and decisive act may have been what persuaded McCain to go for the US' major regional nemesis, the Iraq of Saddam Hussein. In 2003, 'rogue state roll-back' was used to 'shock and awe' the Iraqi people, as armed groups inside Iraq rose up against Saddam, coupled with an invasion in their support by US and UK forces. Unfortunately, the bloodbath which followed thanks to the influx of weapons had not been predicted, and remained a running sore throughout McCain's time in office.

But it is easy for us here in Britain to only see US Presidents through their foreign policy actions. At home, McCain was a key player in steering the US economy through the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001, while he enacted several major pieces of domestic legislation. He was also able to begin the injection of private cash into the US Medicare system, while the USA PATRIOT Act was passed to ensure greater safety after the trauma of 9/11. The creation of a new Department of Homeland Security was widely praised, as was the masterstroke of persuading Democrat Joe Lieberman to head it. It was the organisation which pioneered the response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, another scenario widely praised for being well handled.

With such a strong personality, voters saw no reason to back John Kerry in 2004 so McCain was re-elected by a landslide. This strong mandate allowed McCain to press ahead with more controversial legislation. His Immigration Bill of 2005, which would grant US citizenship to millions of illegal immigrants to provide a fresh start for the system, was torn apart by Republicans and Democrats alike. It is widely considered to have contributed to the sweeping gains the Democrats made in the 2006 mid-terms. Besides, McCain was getting older, and the country was starting to tire of him. Meanwhile, on the foreign policy front Iraq-induced apathy and questions about the torture of suspects were starting to dog the administration. In it's dying days, the McCain administration also had to try and deal with the near collapse of the international financial system, caused in part by lax-regulation in the McCain years.

By November 2008, the public's weariness with the Republicans helped propel charismatic Democrat Barack Obama into the White House, easily seeing off the gaffe-ridden ticket of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. However, dealing with the hangover of the McCain years has caused much of the initial optimism around Obama to wear off, and the lurch to the right by the Republican party has seemingly given it a new lease of life. However, whether that is enough to take them back to power and finally give George W. Bush his chance in the White House still remains unanswered.

Photo of the Day

Ed: 'Look, the road to electoral oblivion'

Alternative (ie better) captions are much welcomed...

What If... Michael Portillo led the Tories?

As Westminster breaks for the summer recess, the government can finally breathe a sigh of relief. It has been a dramatic few weeks for them, following the political turmoil which has surrounded the last few months. But attention is finally moving away from the coalition and onto the bitter leadership crisis amongst the Opposition.

But we've been here before. We go back to the summer of 2001. For the second time, Tony Blair's New Labour has won an earth-shattering landslide, with the Tory leader William Hague barely denting Labour's majority. Hague resigned, and the race was on to find a replacement.

The final three candidates were veteran bruiser Kenneth Clarke, former Maastricht rebel Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Portillo, who in the 1990s had been an ardent Thatcherite but had now flipped to a position of social liberalism. Portillo had been widely expected to become leader in 1997, but his infamous ousting from Enfield Southgate on election night had put paid to that idea. But now his time was upon him. By a single vote, he secured his place in the final round against Ken Clarke. The long summer campaign saw Clarke and Portillo battle it out up and down the country, pitching to Conservative party members. In the end, the result surprised many. The party faithful had opted for Portillo despite his unforgiving message of modernisation. Clarke, clearly devastated at being pipped to the post again, retired to the backbenches.

Portillo had already hinted at his modernisation agenda as Shadow Chancellor, when he had committed the Conservatives to the National Minimum Wage and to recognising the independence of the Bank of England. But now, as leader, Portillo grasped this theme. He began to espouse a theme he called compassionate Conservatism, calling not for reduced state spending but for it to be better targeted and moved away from Whitehall. On the economy, he called for "corporate social responsibility." At the time, this was merely a catchphrase, but would have huge implications later on. Admittedly, much of this sounded very like what Tony Blair said, and the reaction amongst the Tory press, not to mention party grandees such as Norman Tebitt, was little short of hysterical. Portillo was hounded by the press, the Daily Mail in particular going for his homosexual past.

And yet, the public began to come round to Portillo. He was helped enormously in 2002, when he used the summer recess to live undercover for a TV show standing in as a single parent for a week. The press and Labour dismissed this as a mere gimmick. Viewers were more impressed. Back in the world of politics, Portillo committed the Tories to supporting much of Blair's public service reform agenda, but with qualifications. This had the bonus effect of causing serious tensions between Blair and his arch-rival, Gordon Brown. His other great coup was to persuade Michael Howard and Ken Clarke out of their self-imposed exiles on the backbenches, helping to soothe fears amongst veterans over his attempts to broaden the image of the party. But whether Portillo would have won in 2005 without Iraq is another question.

The Conservatives were initially enthusiastic backers of the war, at least officially. After all, Blair had tried to get a UN resolution, and had credible evidence. But when neither international support nor the infamous Weapons of Mass Destruction were forthcoming, the position changed. Portillo was keen to stress his personal support for the armed forces; he was, after all, a former Defence Secretary. But as Iraq descended into anarchy, it was all too easy to blame Blair for misleading the public and failing to prepare for the aftermath. The Blair government was looking increasingly cornered.

Combined with a socially liberal, centre-ground manifesto, this sense of chaos helped push Blair out of No 10 in May 2005, with the Conservatives making huge ground from their 2001 drubbing but still only having a majority of two. Portillo's opponents were silenced by the sheer amount of ground he had recovered, and early on he handled the G8 summit and 2005 London terror attacks superbly. But it was clear that this government would not last the full term, so in May 2007 Portillo called a snap election and increased his majority to a safe 62. Labour had ousted Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had moved in to claim his crown, but when pitched against such a formidable campaigner as Portillo he didn't stand a chance.

Armed with this huge mandate, Portillo got stuck in to the reform and reorientation of Britain's public services, with Tim Collins and Andrew Lansley offering huge new freedoms to schools and hospitals. At the Home Office, arch-libertarian David Davis set about tearing up Labour's restriction of civil liberties legislation in alliance with Ken Clarke, the new Justice Secretary. The disquiet of grandees over what they saw as pointless tinkering was kept at bay by Portillo's haggling over the Lisbon Treaty. Portillo was also helped by the collapse of Gordon Brown's authority on the Labour benches, as David Miliband launched a protracted campaign to oust him.

But then came the financial crash, which arguably cut short Portillo's premiership. Some of his response was textbook, his recapitalisation scheme showing he was no economic lightweight. He also reinforced his political authority within the Conservative Party by sacking long time ally Francis Maude, who exacerbated the run on Northern Rock by suggesting that customers kept their money under their pillows rather than investing it. The idea of 'responsible capitalism' he had been promoting since he became leader struck a chord with the public, while Gordon Brown's association with the old system finished off his political career for good. Portillo's Euroscepticism also enabled him to criticise the Eurozone's troubles, helping to stem the rise of UKIP.

Unfortunately, having spent billions in propping up the banking sector, Portillo and his new Chancellor, Philip Hammond, then went and squandered the public support by starting to make drastic cuts to public spending in order to balance the books. While the Tory faithful were delighted, floating voters were less than impressed. In 2012 the UK economy plunged back into recession, while the government was also battered by scandals involving the closeness of David Cameron and George Osborne to News International, while Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms finally began to unravel. Hammond's last budget, in 2012, was widely considered a disaster, and at the May election Labour emerged as the largest party in a hung parliament, having promised to ease the pace of cuts and focus more on tax rises and boosting growth. Portillo was forced to resign and watch a Lab-Lib pact take power. But attention is now starting to shift away from the novelty of the coalition, and onto the Tory leadership race; will William Hague get his chance to shine again, or will David Davis' reputation for reversing Labour's measures be enough to hand him victory?

P.S. Portillo Cabinet, 2005

Prime Minister- Michael Portillo
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Francis Maude
Foreign Secretary- Michael Howard
Home Secretary- David Davis
Justice Secretary- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- William Hague
Education and Skills Secretary- Tim Collins
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Trade and Industry Secretary- Philip Hammond
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Transport Secretary- Sir George Young
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Yeo
Local Government Secretary- Caroline Spelman
Families and Equalities Secretary- Eleanor Laing
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- David Cameron
International Development Secretary- John Bercow
Scottish Secretary- David Mundell
Welsh Secretary- Liam Fox
Northern Irish Secretary- Eric Pickles
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- George Osborne
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Strathclyde
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Oliver Letwin

P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2012

Prime Minister- David Miliband (Labour)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council- Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Liberal Democrat)
Foreign Secretary- Hilary Benn (Labour)
Home Secretary and First Secretary of State- Yvette Cooper (Labour)
Justice Secretary- Alan Johnson (Labour)
Defence Secretary- Jim Murphy (Labour)
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham (Labour)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat)
Welfare Secretary- Liam Byrne (Labour)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Labour)
Transport Secretary- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Ed Davey (Liberal Democrat)
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Harriet Harman (Labour)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Ed Miliband (Labour)
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander (Labour)
Culture, Media, Sports and the Olympics Secretary- Tom Watson (Labour)
Scottish Secretary- Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrat)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Labour)
Northern Irish Secretary- Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Rachel Reeves (Labour)
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Alan Beith (Liberal Democrat)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall (Liberal Democrat)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Jon Cruddas (Labour)
Minister without Portfolio- Tim Farron (Liberal Democrat)

What If... Hugh Gaitskell Had Lived A Bit Longer?

Whilst on holiday in Scotland I saw a story suggesting that the late Yasser Arafat was in fact killed by poisoning. While an interesting story in itself, it didn't help the Scottish Metro that they cited Hugh Gaitskell's death as an example of assassination by poison. The Labour leader's death in 1964 at the hands of a rare autoimmune disease has generated a whole series of conspiracy theories, but the fact remains that it was merely a random tragic event.

And it had come to within an inch of being so different. In 1963 Gaitskell had been riding high, his grip on the Labour party apparently secure after seeing off leadership challenges in 1960 and 1961. Discord in the party had died away, as Gaitskell opened up a huge poll lead over the Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan and looked set to sweep into No 10 and end over a decade of Tory rule. But then, disaster struck. In October 1963 Macmillan stunned the country by standing down, and was replaced by Earl Home, soon to be Sir Alec Douglas-Home. At first it seemed as if things could only get better for Labour. Gaitskell mocked this 'Fourteenth Earl' and his apparent inability to understand economics, but this confident approach masked the recovery of the Conservative's standing. When the election finally came in Occtober 1964, the two parties were neck and neck. In the end, Douglas-Home just squeezed to victory with a majority of six, with a Liberal resurgence depriving Gaitskell of victory. Devastated at this second personal defeat, Gaitskell's health gave in, and he died in December 1964.

Despite his wafer-thin majority, Douglas-Home's administration did get off to a good start. The endorsement of the electorate allowed Douglas-Home to bring Tory heavyweights Enoch Powell and Iain Macleod back into the Cabinet. Under Macleod, the process of decolonisation continued, with much of the old British Empire converted into the Commonwealth of Nations, although the thorny issue of Rhodesia blighted Macleod's record. Meanwhile, Powell's 'New Defence Policy' called for the end of Britain's commitment East of Suez in favour of strengthening NATO. Powell also sided with the army commanders in resisting US pressure to commit to the deteriorating war in Vietnam, a move for which we can all be grateful.  Douglas-Home's biggest achievement, however, was his 1966 negotiation of Britain's entry into the 'Common Market', a feat he managed despite the presence of sceptics (notably Powell) in the Cabinet.

For Labour, the defeat was devastating, turning thirteen years of Tory rule into the prospect of almost two decades. Gaitskell's natural successor was George Brown, but Brown overstepped the mark by resurrecting Gaitskell's idea of abolishing Clause IV of the party constitution, enraging the left of the party. Combined with the open secret of his drinking habit, the wisecracking Harold Wilson was able to secure victory, where he soon proved his worth by wreaking havoc at Prime Minister's Questions. Combining an economists attention to detail with a devastating wit, Wilson proved an immediate hit with the public, offering a 'new' Labour party which would use economic planning and scientific advancement to drag Britain into the modern era.

For Douglas-Home, the situation appeared to be sliding into chaos. Reginald Maudling's stint as Chancellor of the Exchequer prior to 1964 had led to a serious balance of payment's crisis, which new Chancellor Edward Heath struggled to bring under control. The refusal of Powell and Macleod to back British involvement in Vietnam meant that the US placed the pound under intolerable pressure, and by 1967 the inevitable came in the form of devaluation. Heath resigned immediately, and his replacement as Chancellor, Enoch Powell, immediately instigated a dose of deflation which helped to bring the economy back under control. However, Douglas-Home's other big idea, to start to turn the nationalised industries into cooperatives, floundered when the trades unions refused to work with his Minister for Labour, Margaret Thatcher. 1968 saw a wave of industrial unrest, as Thatcher's plans to curb trade union power met with fierce opposition from millions of workers.

As the 1969 election loomed, the economy was starting to look on the up, but otherwise the government had precious little to show for its extra five years in office. Dissent was rife on the backbenches, stirred up by the inconsolable Edward Heath, the EEC was a hard policy to sell to the public, industrial strife blighted the public sector and Ian Smith of Rhodesia had made a mockery of the government's attempts at decolonisation. For many voters, it seemed to be the time for a change. It was no surprise when Labour stormed to victory with a massive 134 seat majority.

Wilson's 'new Labour government' lost no time in making its mark. On his first day as Home Secretary, Roy Jenkins caused a huge stir by suspending the execution of prisoners. Soon after were reforms to legalise homosexuality and abortion, end theatre censorship and ease divorce, measures which shocked many but showed the differences with Douglas-Home's moribund administration. In education, Richard Crossman began the process of ending the tripartite system and replacing it with comprehensive education, while Barbara Castle proved the darling of the left with the extra money poured into the NHS and welfare state. Labour were also able to reap the advantages of Powell's deflationary measures, combining it with a period of industrial intervention spearheaded by Tony Crosland, Peter Shore and Anthony Wedgwood Benn. When the early 1970s economic crisis broke upon us, the British economy was well placed to weather the storm, and the mixed economy and the high spending interventionist state have been with us ever since.

For the Tories, their 1969 defeat marked the start of a long, dark tunnel for them. Sir Alec Douglas-Home resigned as leader, and in the bitter battle to succeed him Reginald Maudling, Edward Heath and Enoch Powell slugged it out. Powell emerged as the narrow victor, and from there things began to go wrong. Powell's proposals to denationalise vast swathes of the public sector were deeply unpopular. Although a parliamentary debater of unparalleled success, Powell shocked the establishment by advocating the repatriation of Ugandan Asian refugees in 1972, in what became known as his 'Rivers of Blood' speech. While many people agreed with him on this, the damage it did to the internal balance of the Conservative party not only handed Wilson the 1973 election on a plate, it caused the party to fracture between Powellites and Heathites. Not until the Heathite Peter Walker was able to narrowly oust Denis Healey from No 10 in the depth of the early eighties recession would the Conservative party return to office, but not before it had accepted much of Labour's policy agenda. Those eighteen years in office from 1951 to 1969 may have done it more harm than good.

P.S. Douglas-Home Cabinet, 1964

Prime Minister- Sir Alec Douglas-Home
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Edward Heath
Foreign Secretary- R.A. Butler
Home Secretary- Reginald Maudling
Defence Secretary- Enoch Powell
Education and Science Secretary- Quintin Hogg
Health Secretary- Anthony Barber
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Boyd-Carpenter
Colonies and Commonwealth Secretary- Iain Macleod
Scottish Secretary- Michael Noble
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Sir Keith Joseph
Minister of Transport- Ernest Marples
Minister of Power- Selwyn Lloyd
Minister for Housing and Local Government- Frederick Erroll
Minister for Labour- Margaret Thatcher
Minister for Public Works- Edward du Cann
Minister for Agriculture- Christopher Soames
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Geoffrey Rippon
Leader of the House of Commons- Peter Thorneycroft
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Carrington

P.P.S. Wilson Cabinet, 1969

Prime Minister- Harold Wilson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Michael Stewart
Foreign Secretary- Denis Healey
Home Secretary- Roy Jenkins
Defence Secretary- James Callaghan
Education and Science Secretary- Richard Crossman
Health and Social Security Secretary- Barbara Castle
Trade and Industry Secretary- Tony Crosland
Employment Secretary- Richard Marsh
Economic Affairs Secretary- Peter Shore
Environment Secretary- Douglas Jay
Scottish Secretary- William Ross
Welsh Secretary- Cledwyn Hughes
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Dick Taverne
Minister of Transport- Bill Rodgers
Minister for Technology- Anthony Wedgwood Benn
Minister for Agriculture- Fred Peart
Minister for Overseas Development- Judith Hart
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Shirley Williams
Leader of the House of Commons- George Brown
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Shackelton

P.P.P.S. Prime Ministers, 1963-2012

1963-1969- Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Con)
1969-1976- Harold Wilson (Lab)
1976-1977- Tony Crosland (Lab)
1977-1981- Denis Healey (Lab)
1981-1991- Peter Walker (Con)
1991-1993- Douglas Hurd (Con)
1993-2001- Bryan Gould (Lab)
2001-2005- Tony Blair (Lab)
2005-2010- Michael Portillo (Con)
2010-2012- Alan Johnson (Lab)

Apparently Network Rail Must Be an Avid Reader...

Regular visitors to this blog will be no strangers to my opinions on the state of Britain's railways. I spend slightly too much of my life either hanging round stations, legging it across stations, sitting dejectedly on a delayed train, sitting dejectedly on the floor of a delayed train, before then returning to hanging around at the station again. And most of this is just getting in or out of Euston. And if you have to deal with an issue where you travelled with more than one train company, you might as well give up. It took several months for the then-Silverlink to decide to refund a ticket I'd bought on the Virgin website, having never made the Virgin train due to the need to stop the Silverlink one and attach a large piece of wood to the window thanks to the brick-shaped hole in it...

But then again, that was Silverlink...

Anyway, it was therefore with great joy and excitement that I saw this today:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/30/labour-railway-network-state-control?fb_action_ids=10151870716330371&fb_action_types=news.reads&fb_source=other_multiline

Now, I'm old enough to remember travelling on British Rail trains, although I was too young to know all the jokes about curly sandwiches. But it can hardly be any worse than it is today (see virtually all previous blog posts!). And the *stupid* privatisation system devised by Mr Major costs the taxpayer far, far more money than the BR block-grant ever did. Plus we can all return to being passengers rather than customers. Not to mention the national version of the Oyster Card which could be brought in, whereas at the moment this sort of a setup would see the train companies implode as they tried to divide it up amongst themselves, the maintenance people, the station owners and the people who own the weeds covering the disused tracks.

I know it's only an idea, and yes it is sort of dependent upon Ed Miliband winning the next election (see earlier post for my views on that) and on him actually doing something... but hey, a man can dream, can't he?!