What If... Election 2017

BBC Decision 2017


Lord Miliband: ... and while I accept, given the opponent we faced, there was little realistic chance of Ed winning, it does beg the question of whether he can lead the Labour party into an election in 2022.

Jeremy Paxman: Well, maybe you think you could have done better, but now we must get back to David Dimbelby. David?

David Dimbelby: Thanks very much Jeremy. Another result in there, Conservatives have gained Plymouth Devonport, the Defence Minister Alison Seabeck ousted, swing of 6.3%. That leaves only Ben Bradshaw in Exeter as a Labour MP south of Slough. Anyway, over to a summary of events from Nick Robinson.

Nick Robinson: When the history books are written, many will say it was here, at City Hall, that the new Prime Minister's road to victory began. When Boris Johnson narrowly ousted Ken Livingstone in 2008 to become Mayor of London, many saw it as the triumph of personality over policy. Boris certainly had personality, but, so it turned out, he also had policy. The 2012 rematch saw Boris narrowly beat Ken again, a ray of sunshine for the Tories on a night when so much else seemed to be going wrong.

Back then, David Cameron, was in No 10 Downing Street, aided by coalition partners the Liberal Democrats. But after two years in office, with the economy stalling and voters becoming increasingly fed up with political gaffes and miscalculations, the pressure was piling on. However, the response to the bloody nose of the 2012 local elections, followed by the police and crime elections in November, was for the coalition to stick to its guns and try to rebalance the books.

Unfortunately, they'd reckoned without George Osborne. His savage cuts, which from early 2013 really started to be felt by voters, also helped to nudge the economy merely from stalling back into recession. With benefits slashed, school funding falling and hospital wards closing, stories began to appear in the press of homelessness, medical disasters and families being forced to miss meals in order to make ends meet. Tory backbenchers feared electoral meltdown. The calls for Osborne's head grew louder. In June 2013, Cameron finally ditched his long term ally and replaced him with Philip Hammond, a safe pair of hands. However, Hammond was unable to turn the economy around either, merely mitigating the worst of Osborne's medicine.

Boris, on the other hand, was bucking the trend. He somehow managed to create the 200,000 new jobs he promised in 2012, and vastly increased spending on schools, hospitals and the capitals transport network. Much of this money came from his idea to place an extra 1p on alcohol sold within the capital, in exchange for a cut in tube and bus fares and lower council tax. By the end of 2014, a sort of replacement for the old EMA (abolished by Osborne in 2010) had been set up, driverless trains put in on the tube, more of the 'Boris bikes' and new routemasters bought. As an example of what could be done for less, it was striking. His ability to cross party lines was legendary. His photo-op drink with Ken Livingstone at the Olympics may have been derided as cheap tricks, but it underlined that Boris' appeal heavily outweighed that of his party in the capital. The 2012 Olympics gave Johnson the chance to look statesman like, although the embarrassing incident with the Mayor of Rio and the ping pong game will doubtless provide mirth to many for years. That aside, for many Tories he began to look increasingly attractive, at least in terms of electability.

Meanwhile, the coalition went into the 2015 election expecting a hammering. The deficit was still large, and further cuts would be needed to tame it. However, people's fear of Labour, plus general apathy over its leader, meant Ed Miliband didn't have an easy ride either. The result was another hung parliament, with Labour narrowly ahead, the Liberal Democrats shattered, and the Tories down but not out. UKIP entered the Commons for the first time, and the Greens also did well. The big winners of the night were the SNP, who became the third largest party in Parliament, seizing 21 seats. With a deal with both the SNP and the Lib Dems unthinkable, Labour formed a minority government.

Big mistake. The new Chancellor, Ed Balls, was unable to introduce many of his more radical ideas for restarting growth due to the panic of the markets at a minority government. Much of the government's political will was poured into defeating the independence referendum in Scotland in 2016. The narrow victory for the Union did nothing to solve the problems facing many voters. Osborne's cuts had done so much damage, both to the public finances and to the economy as a whole, that the new government barely knew where to start. However, as growth steadily returned through 2015 and 2016, and as the Treasury coffers began to fill again, it looked as if Labour would get away with it. There was certainly no public appetite for Cameron's successor as Tory leader, Michael Gove. Labour did well in the 2016 local elections, winning many councillors and saw Eddie Izzard, former stand up comic, beat Iain Duncan Smith in the race for Mayor of London.

But now Boris was free from a job, and wanted a new one. Returning to his old Commons seat of Henley in a by-election in early 2017, he immediately challenged Gove to a leadership contest. Narrowly coming through the MPs vote, Boris hammered Gove in the membership vote. He then radically reformed the Shadow Cabinet, sending Cameron to the Lords, but kept Gove at Health, to sort out the mess left by Andrew Lansley. Fresh blood was brought in to give the Conservatives a new lease of life. At PMQs Labour MPs laughed and jeered, but Ed Miliband was powerless to stop the Tory's 'Boris Bounce.' Labour's worst fears were realised in late 2017. A Commons vote on a new European treaty, designed by President Hollande of France and Chancellor Gabriel of Germany to re-kickstart growth in the Eurozone, saw the government defeated. Johnson then laid down a motion of no confidence, which the government lost by a single vote.

The resulting election campaign was full of drama. Miliband lost a lot of credibility when he tried to claim that Johnson was incompetent and would ruin the country; many people just wanted someone to get on with the job, and maybe lighten it up a bit too. Boris could point to his record in London to prove he could do more for less, promising to cut both taxes and the deficit. As we have seen tonight, the public liked what they saw.

David Dimbelby: Thanks very much Nick. While Nick was talking there were a few developments. Tim Farron, the new Liberal Democrat leader, has consulted with Charles Kennedy, the party's sole surviving MP, and has announced he is to start merger talks with Labour. Nigel Farage congratulated Mr Johnson and consoled the six of his MPs who lost their seats tonight, while Alex Salmond is facing leadership troubles of his own after the collapse of SNP support. Caroline Lucas is said to be delighted by the new Green contingent, speaking after the result in Cambridge. And last but not least, the Home Office minister, Stella Creasy, has clung onto her Walthamstow seat, and used her victory speech to announce she would challenge Ed Miliband in the inevitable leadership contest.

And just to remind you, here are the figures from 2015:

Labour- 283- 39%
Conservative- 261- 37%
SNP- 21- 2.2%
UKIP- 7- 4.8%
Liberal Democrat- 5- 10%
Greens- 3- 2.2%
Plaid Cymru- 2- 0.5%
Northern Ireland- 17- 1.5%

And our final projection, with 592 results declared:

Conservative- 354- 46.3%
Labour- 218- 36.7%
Green- 6 - 3.2%
SNP- 2- 1.3%
Liberal Democrat- 1- 7%
UKIP- 1- 2.6%
Plaid Cymru- 2- 0.3%
Northern Ireland- 17- 1.5%

And so that would leave Mr Johnson with a majority of 108, incidentally, on a high turnout, of some 70%, which will doubtless be attributed to the Boris factor.

Anyway, that's it from us, and to leave you with the words of our new Prime Minister, 'Now, let's get stuck in, and show the world Britain is back for good.'


P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2015

Prime Minister- Ed Miliband
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Ed Balls
Foreign Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Home Secretary- Yvette Cooper
Justice Secretary- Sadiq Kahn
Defence Secretary- Jim Murphy
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Stephen Twigg
Health Secretary- Andy Burnham
Business, Innovations and Skills Secretary- Chuka Umunna
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Angela Eagle
Transport Secretary- Maria Eagle
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Mary Creagh
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Caroline Flint
International Development Secretary- Ivan Lewis
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Tom Watson
Scottish Secretary- Margaret Curran
Welsh Secretary- Chris Bryant
Northern Irish Secretary- Vernon Croaker
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Rachel Reeves
Leader of the House of Commons- Hilary Benn
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and First Secretary of State- Harriet Harman

P.P.S. Johnson Cabinet, 2017

Prime Minister- Boris Johnson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Justine Greening
Foreign Secretary- Owen Paterson
Home Secretary- James Brokenshire
Justice Secretary- Dominic Raab
Defence Secretary- Dan Byles
Education Secretary- Liz Truss
Health Secretary- Michael Gove
Business Secretary- Chloe Smith
Work and Pensions Secretary- Maria Miller
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Grant Schapps
Transport Secretary- Kwasi Kwarteng
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Greg Barker
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Zac Goldsmith
International Development Secretary- Karen Lumley
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Penny Mordaunt
Scottish Secretary- Ben Wallace
Welsh Secretary- Guto Bebb
Northern Irish Secretary- Richard Fuller
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Matthew Hancock
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir William Hague
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Cameron
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Mark Pritchard (Party Chairman)