What a year 2011 has been for David Cameron. Libya, phone hacking, Europe; all have seen Mr Cameron do very well. However, on the central issue, the economy, he is still vulnerable, and he knows it; after all, to have an ex-PM breathing down his neck from the IMF can't be an easy task.
The rise of Gordon Brown into the internationally renowned statesman he is today can be traced back to the dark days of 1992, when Labour had just received a bloody nose from the electorate, losing a fourth consecutive general election to the Conservatives. Thirteen years of opposition looked set to become seventeen or eighteen, and for many in the party, it had not done enough to broaden its appeal to the electorate. Two such modernisers were Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. These two men had long been talked about as future Labour leaders, and the sheer scale of Labour's defeat persuaded them that something had to be done. When Neil Kinnock resigned as Labour leader in 1992, the overwhelming consensus was for the shadow Chancellor, John Smith, to become leader. However, in a shock intervention, Brown and Blair decided to run a joint leader-deputy leader campaign, urging the party to change radically in order to regain the trust of the electorate. Apparently, Brown had been reluctant to challenge his long time friend and mentor, but Blair and the recently elected Peter Mandelson, long a key player in the party, changed his mind.
However, the outcome was never in any doubt. John Smith won the leadership election by a huge margin. But the challenge by Brown had left a marker for the future and, following Smith's tragic death in May 1994, the momentum behind Gordon Brown was unstoppable. Although many felt that Tony Blair would have been a better leader, Brown could point to the fact that he had already effectively been seen as the heir apparent for two years. To prevent a major fight, Mandelson was again crucial, brokering the infamous (and conjectural) Brown-Blair Deal, supposedly sealed at a fish and chip shop in Brown's constituency. Opposed only by John Prescott, Brown swept into the Labour leadership, with Blair as his deputy. The two men were described as 'the dream ticket'; Brown, more appealing to the core of Labour voters, used his to economic prowess help sooth fears over the cost of a Labour government, while Blair's charm, charisma and social morality message helped to bring Middle England over to Labour. Together, they won a massive landslide majority in the 1997 election.
At first, the partnership worked well. Brown and his Chancellor, the witty Frank Dobson, helped to keep a strong economy growing, but were not wild with the public finances. Meanwhile, Blair's passion for home affairs and social issues made him an ideal Home Secretary, pushing the PM's stance of being "tough on crime, but tough on the causes of crime." A remarkable peace in Northern Ireland, the establishment of devolution in Scotland, Wales and London and reform of the House of Lords were also major achievements. The voters liked what they saw, and in 2001 saw no reason to turn to William Hague; Brown and Blair were back with another landslide.
However, after 2001 the strains began to show in their partnership. Whilst obviously appalled at the September 11th attacks on the US, Gordon Brown found it hard to back the foreign policy agenda of the Bush Administration. While British forces helped to overthrow the Taliban in Afghanistan, Brown drew the line at backing the US invasion of Iraq, leading to a major row with Blair who thought the war a necessary evil. This row dominated the rest of the term, overshadowing increased investment in public services, the banning of fox hunting and the introduction of university tuition fees. Blair's resignation was only prevented by Brown's announcement in 2004 that, following the next election, he would stand down as Prime Minister, heading off to become the Managing Director of the IMF. Following a comfortable Labour win in 2005, Tony Blair finally became Prime Minister.
Blair got off to an excellent start as Prime Minister. With the Tories engaged in a long leadership election, Blair was able to dominate the political agenda; unlike Brown, he was prepared to engage with the media rather than endure it. The Cabinet was restructured to include leading 'Blairites'; for the Brownites, there were a few minor posts, but Blair made it clear he was his own man. His hosting on the Gleneagles G8 summit, plus his effective response to the 7/7 London bombings were widely praised, while winning the Olympics for 2012 was just an added bonus. Meanwhile, he was able to deliver on his dream of bringing Britain closer to Europe by signing up to the new EU Treaty.
Sadly, it quickly became apparent that, for all his charisma, Blair had no defining vision of his own, despite his much vaunted promises of a 'new' approach. He threw himself into foreign affairs, quickly becoming associated with the Bush Administration's War on Terror. Compared to Brown's enthusiasm for boosting international development, this was not an impressive change for the British people. The EU Treaty stalled, while the public tired of the constant tinkering with public services. The Conservatives, under youthful new leader David Cameron, began to pull ahead in the opinion polls.
Then the crash happened. From September 2007 onwards, the global economic system went into a near terminal decline. Blair's initial response, to encourage the private takeover of failing banks, was ridiculed for not doing nearly enough to deal with the sheer depth of the crisis. The fact that he had consistently adopted very lax financial regulations did not do him any favours. With even the Conservatives saying they'd have taken failing banks into state ownership, Blair looked increasingly isolated. The closeness to the Bush regime also meant that Blair's belated attempt to strike out for an international consensus was met coolly by new US President Barack Obama, while Blair's pro-Euro stance looked ridiculous now the single currency was teetering on the brink of collapse. His failure to drastically ramp up public spending tipped the UK into its first full blown recession since the early 1990s. With the economy in the doldrums, trust in politicians at an all time low thanks to the expenses scandal and the party tired after 13 years in power, it was a near miracle that Blair managed to prevent Cameron gaining an overall majority at the 2010 general election; instead, he was forced to watch David Cameron join with Nick Clegg in the first coalition government since the Second World War. Blair immediately resigned as Labour leader, but not before ensuring that his protege David Miliband had the best shot of becoming leader. Miliband narrowly beat his brother Ed in the election, but the Brownite wing of the party remains a threat to his leadership.
And Brown? His time at the IMF has seen him become a major international figure, helping to build an internationally cohesive response to the global financial crisis, as well as bringing his "clunking great fist" down on those countries whose finances have spiralled out of control. Before the crash he had already become a major player, continuing to lead the drive for greater help for developed nations. There is even speculation that he may return to the UK to lead Labour into the 2015 election; such are the benefits of being a courageous risk taker.
P.S. Brown Cabinet, 1997
Prime Minister- Gordon Brown
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Frank Dobson
Foreign Secretary- Robin Cook
Home Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister- Tony Blair
Defence Secretary- George Robertson
Health Secretary- Michael Meacher
Education, Training and Employment Secretary- David Blunkett
Social Security Secretary- Jack Straw
Business and Enterprise Secretary- Alistair Darling
Families and Equality Secretary- Harriet Harman
Environment, Transport and the Regions Secretary- John Prescott
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Chris Smith
International Development Secretary- Clare Short
Scottish Secretary- Donald Dewar
Welsh Secretary- Ron Davies
Northern Irish Secretary- Mo Mowlan
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Margaret Beckett
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- Jack Cunningham
Minister Without Portfolio- Peter Mandelson
Leader of the House of Commons- Ann Taylor
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Richard
Lord Chancellor- Lord Irvine
Blair Cabinet, 2005
Prime Minister- Tony Blair
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Alan Milburn
Foreign Secretary- Jack Straw
Home Secretary- Charles Clarke
Defence Secretary- John Reid
Justice and Constitutional Affairs Secretary and First Secretary of State- Peter Mandelson
Health Secretary- Patricia Hewitt
Schools, Families and Children Secretary- Beverley Hughes
Universities, Skills and Lifelong Learning Secretary- Harriet Harman
Business, Productivity and Regulatory Reform Secretary- John Hutton
Work and Pensions Secretary- Margaret Beckett
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Alan Johnson
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Hilary Benn
Climate Change Secretary- Lord Stern
Transport Secretary- Ruth Kelly
Culture, Media, Sports and the Olympics Secretary- Tessa Jowell
International Development Secretary- David Miliband
Scottish Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Welsh Secretary- Paul Murphy
Northern Irish Secretary- Shaun Woodward
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Andy Burnham
Leader of the House of Commons- Alistair Darling
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Adonis
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