Sunday, 29 January 2012

What If... 1974 Had Ended Differently?

As the election results flowed in on 1st March 1974, it was clear that the result was going to be impossibly close. Three weeks earlier, Edward Heath had called a snap poll on the theme of 'Who Governs Britain?' in response to an industrial challenge from the National Union of Mineworkers, amidst the chaos of the Three Day Week. Despite every poll predicting a comfortable government victory, the actual result hung on a knife-edge; the Tories polled some 200,000 more votes than Labour, but took 297 seats to Labour's 301. The Liberal Party was rewarded with nearly a fifth of the vote, but took a mere 14 seats. The country waited with baited breath to see what would happen next.

For Heath, the result was a huge personal blow. But he still believed that, as the party leader with the greatest share of the vote, he had the right to try and govern. So he invited Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe to talk coalitions. Although Thorpe was keen, he came with two main demands; proportional representation, and Heath's resignation. When this became public, many came to believe Harold Wilson would end up leading a minority Labour government. How wrong they were.

To national shock, Heath agreed to all of Thorpe's demands, and advised the Queen to send for his hugely popular deputy, Willie Whitelaw, as the next Prime Minister. Whitelaw was in his constituency recovering from flu, and was shocked to find a government messenger hammering on the door with the news. However Heath was not gone completely, he remained as Foreign Secretary. Whitelaw quickly showed a flair for coalition politics; by making the hugely popular ex-Liberal leader Jo Grimond the Secretary of State for Scotland, he ensured the tacit support of the SNP. Despite Labour's howls of protest, Whitelaw now had a majority government, crucially one which also proved a popular hit with the public, who liked to see politicans working together.

The new government managed to use its initial popularity to settle with the NUM, enabling the sense of crisis stoked by the Three-Day Week to ebb. Meanwhile, public spending, which had spiralled out of control under Heath, was reigned in and better targeted to help kick-start the economy. Big capital projects were of some help, with London Maplin airport helping to generate activity. Labour's potentially disastrous plans to renegotiate Britain's terms of EEC entry were mercifully avoided, and Whitelaw proved to be a good European leader. He also became a strong ally of the US President Gerald Ford, who was battling to restore credibility to the office following Watergate. Slowly, growth returned to the UK economy and inflation began to fall. Away from the economy, much else got done. With Thorpe at the Home Office, measures to help racial and gender inequality were rammed through Parliament. The inclusion of Grimond in the Cabinet led to added impetus for greater devolution, although the thorny West Lothian question posed by Labour never quite resolved itself. The Speaker's Conference on Proportional Representation proved even thornier, with Labour, now led by Denis Healey, unwilling to give ground on the electoral system. Eventually, it was decided to stage a national referendum in mid 1975 on the issue, but amid dismal turnout the plans were rejected.

But it wasn't just the Liberals in the Cabinet who made waves. The new Energy Secretary, Sir Keith Joseph, felt compelled to apologise to voters for the failings of the government to develop a full-proof energy policy, and vowed to put this right, leading to heavy investment in North Sea oil and gas. And although much mocked at the time, the warnings of the science graduate in charge of the Department of the Environment were later hailed by the green lobby as representing the first politician to identify the challenge of global warming. The government seemed to have turned a corner and ended the 1970s crisis.

Then the markets struck. In 1976 sterling came under increasing pressure, with external markets spooked by the government's tiny majority and the sluggish economy. In the end, Whitelaw was forced to call in a team from the IMF and ask for a loan to prop up the economy. The images of the Chancellor, Robert Carr, turning away from Heathrow airport on the way to a finance ministers meeting because he could not afford to be out of contact was the defining image of the crisis. The IMF insisted on deep cuts to public spending, and although Whitelaw and Carr were able to ease the cuts being imposed, the damage to the government was serious. Compounding this, from 1976 Thorpe was placed under intense scrutiny about his personal life and his sexuality. The lock out at the Grunwick film plant showed how little the government had actually achieved in controlling the unions.

But it was devolution which tore the government apart. The minority pact depended upon the support of the SNP and Plaid Cymru to stay alive in the lobbies, and when progress towards devolution was not as rapid as these parties would like, they pulled the plug on the government. The collapse of the United Ulster Unionist Council meant that in May 1978 the government lost a motion of no confidence in parliament, and then the following general election, which saw Labour returned to office in a landslide. With North Sea oil revenues providing seemingly endless money, the golden years of Labour rule were underway.

P.S. Whitelaw Cabinet, 1974

Prime Minister- Willie Whitelaw (Con)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Robert Carr (Con)
Foreign Secretary- Edward Heath (Con)
Home Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister- Jeremy Thorpe (Lib)
Defence Secretary- Ian Gilmour (Con)
Health and Social Security Secretary- Peter Walker (Con)
Education and Science Secretary- Geoffrey Rippon (Con)
Environment Secretary- Margaret Thatcher (Con)
Trade and Industry Secretary- Jim Prior (Con)
Employment Secretary- John Pardoe (Lib)
Energy Secretary- Sir Keith Joseph (Con)
Scottish Secretary- Jo Grimond (Lib)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Thomas (Con)
Northern Irish Secretary- Francis Pym (Con)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Michael Heseltine (Con)
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- Joseph Godber (Con)
Leader of the House of Commons- Maurice Macmillan (Con)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Carrington (Con)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Arts- Norman St John Stevas (Con)

Friday, 27 January 2012

The Wit and Wisdom of... Jim Callaghan

When we reject unemployment as an economic instrument — as we do — and when we reject also superficial remedies, as socialists must, then we must ask ourselves unflinchingly what is the cause of high unemployment. Quite simply and unequivocally, it is caused by paying ourselves more than the value of what we produce. There are no scapegoats.

Prime Minister James Callaghan, Speech to the Labour Party Conference, September 1976

Friday, 20 January 2012

No Need to Worry About Teaching History...

Today I was speaking to a Mordern Litt MA student, who was from the States. After a while, the conversation turned to what I was studying:

Him: "Oh, so what part of the Middle Ages do you study?"

Me: "I'm an early medievalist, so my version of the Middle Ages ends in 1066, when everyone else's is taking off."

Him: "Why, what happened in 1066 that was so special?"

Well, at least the national panic over the what people know about the past which regularly surfaces should abate a bit, things aren't so bad after all (relatively)...

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Boris' Airport?

Listening to the radio this lunchtime, and the airwaves have been packed with news on the "Boris Island" airport, telling us how the Mayor of London has come up with the idea to build a new London Airport on an island in the Thames Estuary, eventually leading to a closedown of Heathrow, not to mention the ridiculous City Airport.

The case for the airport is compelling. Rather than having aeroplanes coming in over densely populated areas, with all the problems of noise and dangers of accidents, they would fly over the North Sea, with no one to disturb. I once read somewhere that Heathrow is the only major international airport to be on the 'wrong side' of the city it serves in this respect; I don't know how true this is, but living under the final stacking zone for Heathrow I can believe the noise bit. Yes, the mud flats of the Thames Estuary would be damaged, but proper steps could be taken to mitigate any environmental damage. The infrastructure which would be built to supply this airport will be an added bonus, especially at a time when we could really do with some capital investment. What a good thing Boris has thought up this genius scheme.

Hmm...

Only he hasn't. The idea for an airport in the Thames Estuary almost predates the arrival of commercial airlines. It was first seriously proposed in 1943, although perhaps understandably the government at the time had more pressing concerns to deal with, such as winning the Second World War. The idea really took off (sorry) in the mid 1960s, when several locations in Essex were used to challenge the Labour government of Harold Wilson's preferred site for a third London airport of Stansted. This argument went back and forth, until in 1972, the Tory government of Edward Heath grandly announced the creation of "the world’s first environmental airport” at Maplin Sands, by Southend.

Ted Heath: A Pioneering Eco-warrior?

However, the scheme floundered upon the usual mix of local resistance and spiralling costs, and the less usual oil embargo imposed by OPEC after the Yom Kippur War.

A new tactic for NIMBYism?

With Heath losing power after the February 1974 general election, Wilson was back again, and before long his Environment Secretary, Peter Shore, was announcing the scrapping of the whole scheme and moving everything back to Stansted. Apart from (or perhaps Because of) an attempt by the GLC in the late 1970s and early 1980s to promote the idea, the estuary airport was dead in the water (apologies again).

Until the mid 2000s. The last Labour government seemed hell bent on adding another runway to Heathrow, despite the opposition of just about everyone around.

Rebel Labour MP using the Parliamentary Mace to bludgeon some sense into the Transport Secretary

Against this backdrop, many began to dust off the old plans for an airport in the Thames. Like many things from the 1970s (such as stagflation, Doctor Who, strikes, hung parliaments and police brutality) this idea seems to be undergoing a bit of a modern revival. Where next...

Hmm, maybe not...
_________________________________________________________________________

All facts are either personal knowledge, or taken from Aviation: proposals for an airport in the Thames estuary, 1945-2011 (Accessed 18/01/12, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN04920) All pictures are from Google Image Search

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

What If... Gordon Brown Was Prime Minister First?

What a year 2011 has been for David Cameron. Libya, phone hacking, Europe; all have seen Mr Cameron do very well. However, on the central issue, the economy, he is still vulnerable, and he knows it; after all, to have an ex-PM breathing down his neck from the IMF can't be an easy task.

The rise of Gordon Brown into the internationally renowned statesman he is today can be traced back to the dark days of 1992, when Labour had just received a bloody nose from the electorate, losing a fourth consecutive general election to the Conservatives. Thirteen years of opposition looked set to become seventeen or eighteen, and for many in the party, it had  not done enough to broaden its appeal to the electorate. Two such modernisers were Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. These two men had long been talked about as future Labour leaders, and the sheer scale of Labour's defeat persuaded them that something had to be done. When Neil Kinnock resigned as Labour leader in 1992, the overwhelming consensus was for the shadow Chancellor, John Smith, to become leader. However, in a shock intervention, Brown and Blair decided to run a joint leader-deputy leader campaign, urging the party to change radically in order to regain the trust of the electorate. Apparently, Brown had been reluctant to challenge his long time friend and mentor, but Blair and the recently elected Peter Mandelson, long a key player in the party, changed his mind.

However, the outcome was never in any doubt. John Smith won the leadership election by a huge margin. But the challenge by Brown had left a marker for the future and, following Smith's tragic death in May 1994, the momentum behind Gordon Brown was unstoppable. Although many felt that Tony Blair would have been a better leader, Brown could point to the fact that he had already effectively been seen as the heir apparent for two years. To prevent a major fight, Mandelson was again crucial, brokering the infamous (and conjectural) Brown-Blair Deal, supposedly sealed at a fish and chip shop in Brown's constituency. Opposed only by John Prescott, Brown swept into the Labour leadership, with Blair as his deputy. The two men were described as 'the dream ticket'; Brown, more appealing to the core of Labour voters, used his to economic prowess help sooth fears over the cost of a Labour government, while Blair's charm, charisma and social morality message helped to bring Middle England over to Labour. Together, they won a massive landslide majority in the 1997 election.

At first, the partnership worked well. Brown and his Chancellor, the witty Frank Dobson, helped to keep a strong economy growing, but were not wild with the public finances. Meanwhile, Blair's passion for home affairs and social issues made him an ideal Home Secretary, pushing the PM's stance of being "tough on crime, but tough on the causes of crime." A remarkable peace in Northern Ireland, the establishment of devolution in Scotland, Wales and London and reform of the House of Lords were also major achievements.  The voters liked what they saw, and in 2001 saw no reason to turn to William Hague; Brown and Blair were back with another landslide.

However, after 2001 the strains began to show in their partnership. Whilst obviously appalled at the September 11th attacks on the US, Gordon Brown found it hard to back the foreign policy agenda of the Bush Administration. While British forces helped to overthrow the Taliban in Afghanistan, Brown drew the line at backing the US invasion of Iraq, leading to a major row with Blair who thought the war a necessary evil. This row dominated the rest of the term, overshadowing increased investment in public services, the banning of fox hunting and the introduction of university tuition fees. Blair's resignation was only prevented by Brown's announcement in 2004 that, following the next election, he would stand down as Prime Minister, heading off to become the Managing Director of the IMF. Following a comfortable Labour win in 2005, Tony Blair finally became Prime Minister.

Blair got off to an excellent start as Prime Minister. With the Tories engaged in a long leadership election, Blair was able to dominate the political agenda; unlike Brown, he was prepared to engage with the media rather than endure it. The Cabinet was restructured to include leading 'Blairites'; for the Brownites, there were a few minor posts, but Blair made it clear he was his own man. His hosting on the Gleneagles G8 summit, plus his effective response to the 7/7 London bombings were widely praised, while winning the Olympics for 2012 was just an added bonus. Meanwhile, he was able to deliver on his dream of bringing Britain closer to Europe by signing up to the new EU Treaty.

Sadly, it quickly became apparent that, for all his charisma, Blair had no defining vision of his own, despite his much vaunted promises of a 'new' approach. He threw himself into foreign affairs, quickly becoming associated with the Bush Administration's War on Terror. Compared to Brown's enthusiasm for boosting international development, this was not an impressive change for the British people. The EU Treaty stalled, while the public tired of the constant tinkering with public services. The Conservatives, under youthful new leader David Cameron, began to pull ahead in the opinion polls.

Then the crash happened. From September 2007 onwards, the global economic system went into a near terminal decline. Blair's initial response, to encourage the private takeover of failing banks, was ridiculed for not doing nearly enough to deal with the sheer depth of the crisis. The fact that he had consistently adopted very lax financial regulations did not do him any favours. With even the Conservatives saying they'd have taken failing banks into state ownership, Blair looked increasingly isolated. The closeness to the Bush regime also meant that Blair's belated attempt to strike out for an international consensus was met coolly by new US President Barack Obama, while Blair's pro-Euro stance looked ridiculous now the single currency was teetering on the brink of collapse. His failure to drastically ramp up public spending tipped the UK into its first full blown recession since the early 1990s. With the economy in the doldrums, trust in politicians at an all time low thanks to the expenses scandal and the party tired after 13 years in power, it was a near miracle that Blair managed to prevent Cameron gaining an overall majority at the 2010 general election; instead, he was forced to watch David Cameron join with Nick Clegg in the first coalition government since the Second World War. Blair immediately resigned as Labour leader, but not before ensuring that his protege David Miliband had the best shot of becoming leader. Miliband narrowly beat his brother Ed in the election, but the Brownite wing of the party remains a threat to his leadership.

And Brown? His time at the IMF has seen him become a major international figure, helping to build an internationally cohesive response to the global financial crisis, as well as bringing his "clunking great fist" down on those countries whose finances have spiralled out of control. Before the crash he had already become a major player, continuing to lead the drive for greater help for developed nations. There is even speculation that he may return to the UK to lead Labour into the 2015 election; such are the benefits of being a courageous risk taker.

P.S. Brown Cabinet, 1997

Prime Minister- Gordon Brown
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Frank Dobson
Foreign Secretary- Robin Cook
Home Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister- Tony Blair
Defence Secretary- George Robertson
Health Secretary- Michael Meacher
Education, Training and Employment Secretary- David Blunkett
Social Security Secretary- Jack Straw
Business and Enterprise Secretary- Alistair Darling
Families and Equality Secretary- Harriet Harman
Environment, Transport and the Regions Secretary- John Prescott
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Chris Smith
International Development Secretary- Clare Short
Scottish Secretary- Donald Dewar
Welsh Secretary- Ron Davies
Northern Irish Secretary- Mo Mowlan
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Margaret Beckett
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- Jack Cunningham
Minister Without Portfolio- Peter Mandelson
Leader of the House of Commons- Ann Taylor
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Richard
Lord Chancellor- Lord Irvine

Blair Cabinet, 2005

Prime Minister- Tony Blair
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Alan Milburn
Foreign Secretary- Jack Straw
Home Secretary- Charles Clarke
Defence Secretary- John Reid
Justice and Constitutional Affairs Secretary and First Secretary of State- Peter Mandelson
Health Secretary- Patricia Hewitt
Schools, Families and Children Secretary- Beverley Hughes
Universities, Skills and Lifelong Learning Secretary- Harriet Harman
Business, Productivity and Regulatory Reform Secretary- John Hutton
Work and Pensions Secretary- Margaret Beckett
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Alan Johnson
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Hilary Benn
Climate Change Secretary- Lord Stern
Transport Secretary- Ruth Kelly
Culture, Media, Sports and the Olympics Secretary- Tessa Jowell
International Development Secretary- David Miliband
Scottish Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Welsh Secretary- Paul Murphy
Northern Irish Secretary- Shaun Woodward
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Andy Burnham
Leader of the House of Commons- Alistair Darling
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Adonis

Monday, 16 January 2012

Tesco Customer Training

The Scene: Tesco, A City Centre, A Monday evening

The Checkout Assistant: Next please!

(Up walk three people)

Person #1- There are demons in here you know...

The Checkout Assistant: Is there anything I can help you with?

Person #2: No really, there are, I can feel them...

The Checkout Assistant: I see, and do you have a Clubcard for them?

I will admit, I left before it got any better...

Friday, 13 January 2012

The Wit and Wisdom of... John Maynard Keynes

"The power to become habituated to his surroundings is a marked characteristic of mankind. Very few of us realise with conviction the intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organisation by which Western Europe has lived for the last half-century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly. On this sandy and false foundation we scheme for social improvement and dress our political platform"

John Maynard Keynes, "Paris", 1919

Thursday, 5 January 2012

East Coast Trains Jekyll and Hyde Performance

So for some odd reason, the ticket machine for my journey back to university never printed the 'MANDATORY RESERVATION COUPON' needed to even look at an intercity train, let alone board one. So I phoned East Coast trains. When the day got really interesting...

Round One


Me: Um, hi, I don't appear to have been issued with my seat reservation for the 11:00 to York tomorrow from King's Cross...

Operator 1: Well, I'm sorry sir, but there is absolutely no way you can travel on that service, short of buying a new ticket.

Me: What, a whole new ticket? No way whatsoever? For a journey I paid for in November?!

Operator 1: No, sir, none.

So, smarting at the thought of paying an extra £35 to sit on a train which I paid for in November, I rang back...

Round Two


Me: Hi, I'm not sure if you can help, but I don't appear to have been issued with my seat reservation for the 11:00 to York tomorrow from King's Cross...

Operator 2: Ok, no problem, give us your booking reference and we'll set up a new electronic ticket for you to print at the station later, is that ok?

Now, how hard was that?!