What If... Coalitions Were Old News?

As we pass the first anniversary of the Conservative- Liberal Democrat coalition government, it seems laughable that many commentators last May were predicting the deal wouldn't have lasted this long. Given Britain's recent experiences of coalition, it should have been obvious that it was going to work; the example of 1992 should have shown that.

Before recapping why, it is worth imagining a world in which John Major won the general election of April 1992, leading the Conservatives into a fourth term in office. Quite how he would have coped with issues such as European integration, the war in the former Yugoslavia, BSE and the economy will never be known, but after such a long period already in office the Tories would not have been in for an easy ride.

Instead, the election produced a hung parliament, the first elected since February 1974. In his memoirs, In Office But Not In Power, Major blamed his defeat on the refusal of his Cabinet to let him campaign directly on the streets, saying it was beneath a Conservative Prime Minister to do so. Maybe, but with the memory of the poll tax still raw and the recession deepening it is hard to believe that this would have changed much. Meanwhile Labour, beset by accusations over hidden tax rises, dodgy broadcasts and triumphalism, kept its cool. Despite the Sun claiming it could win the election for Major, the television broadcasters made the best guess: the Conservatives took 301 seats to Labour's 298, with the Liberal Democrats on 29 and others on 23.

Haunted by memories of February 74, the Tory high command urged Major not to enter into any talks other parties, instead meeting Parliament and challenging it to bring them down. These vital days gave Labour leader Neil Kinnock time to hammer out a deal with Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown. This resulted in the first coalition government since the Second World War; the Lib Dems got six Cabinet seats, with Ashdown as Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Secretary. His main prize was the commitment to a referendum on changing the voting system and fixed four year Parliaments. The anger of many Labour backbenchers likely to lose their seats were bought off with a pure PR House of Lords. Prior to this vote in 1993, Kinnock's devaluation of the pound in response to speculative attacks was widely seen as an unpleasant but necessary step in dealing with the hangover of Thatcherism.

Despite a nail-bitingly close passage through the Common,s the referendum passed the public vote easily, with the hybrid AV+ system being implemented in Westminster elections and for the new devolved assemblies.

A staunchly pro-European foreign policy saw the coalition sign up to the new single currency and commit to UNPROFOR in the former Yugoslavia. At home, the Treasury team of John Smith and Gordon Brown oversaw increased but not excessive public spending to improve services and help pull the economy out of recession. In Northern Ireland, the dynamic and youthful Northern Irish Secretary, Tony Blair, used his charm to broker a historic power-sharing deal between the unionists and the nationalists, helping the province to begin to normalise. With these successes, the electorate saw no reason not to return the coalition in 1996 with a landslide majority. The Tories, nominally led by Ken Clarke but actually riven over the changes, was devastated.

The 2000 election, with Brown and Charles Kennedy now in the driving seats, saw another coalition landslide, but by 2004 the cracks were starting to show. Blair, by now a passionately pro-American Foreign Secretary, had persuaded Brown to back US military action in Iraq over the head of the UN, which was unthinkable for many Lib Dems. Kennedy informed Labour that he and his party could no longer serve in this government, and as a result after the 2004 election Brown found himself heading a minority government. However with the Tories under Iain Duncan Smith still not a coherent force, he got away with it until 2008, when he quit domestic politics to head up the IMF, handing over to Blair. Faced with the worst financial crisis in living memory and a resurgent Conservative Party under David Cameron, Blair's government fell following a dramatic Commons showdown in 2010 and he was forced to call early elections. Despite staving off the expected Tory landslide, Blair was powerless to stop Cameron and new Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, creating the first coalition since the Iraq War. It remains to be seen whether Labour, now headed by Blair's protege Alan Milburn, is capable of dealing with being on the other side of a coalition.

P.S. Kinnock-Ashdown Cabinet, 1992

Prime Minister- Neil Kinnock (Labour)

Chancellor of the Exchequer- John Smith (Labour)

Foreign Secretary- Gerald Kaufman (Labour)

Home Secretary- Roy Hattersley (Labour)

Defence Secretary and Deputy PM- Paddy Ashdown (Liberal Democrat)

Education Secretary- Jack Straw (Labour)

Health Secretary- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat)

Trade and Industry Secretary- Margaret Beckett (Labour)

Environment Secretary- Martin O'Neill (Labour)

Transport Secretary- John Prescott (Labour)

Employment Secretary-Robin Cook (Labour)

Social Security Secretary- Michael Meacher (Labour)

Energy Secretary- Frank Dobson (Labour)

Scottish Secretary- Jim Wallace (Liberal Democrat)

Welsh Secretary- Barry Jones (Labour)

Northern Ireland Secretary- Tony Blair (Labour)

Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons- Jack Cunningham (Labour)

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Alan Beith (Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader)

Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Graham (Labour)

Lord Chancellor- Lord Mischon (Labour)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Gordon Brown (Labour)

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- David Clark (Labour)

Minister for Political Reform- Robert Maclennan (Liberal Democrat)

Attorney General- Menzies Campbell (Liberal Democrat)