What If... Edward Had Stayed On?

The recent wedding of William Windsor to Kate Middleton may have caught the world's attention, but here in Britain there is a strong sense of relief that we didn't have to pay for the grand spectacle. As nice as it looked, royal weddings are a luxury we can't afford right now.

Just how close we came to keeping the monarchy is hard to appreciate today. The Abdication Crisis of 1936-37 could easily have left King Edward VIII "The Last" on the throne, or perhaps his younger brother Prince Albert could have been used as a compromise candidate. As it was, Edward's decision to keep the crown and marry his twice-divorced partner Wallis Simpson appalled the country. The resignation of the entire National Government in protest triggered a general election in November 1936. When Parliament reconvened, the Prime Minister, Stanley Baldwin, in cooperation with new Labour leader Clement Attlee, set about driving Edward out. Massive cuts to the Civil List, the nationalisation of the Crown Estates and the expulsion of Edward from the Church of England appalled many Britons, but overall the public blamed Edward for bringing this crisis to a new high. It was the collapse of the King's Party in Parliament, headed by Winston Churchill, which persuaded Edward that he had to go. In August 1937 he announced that was abdicating.

But events had gone too far to allow the House of Windsor to continue. Edward's last act before departing for France was to sign the Commonwealth Bill into law, which vested the monarch's powers in a Lord Protector. The 1937 Constitutional Convention was Baldwin's lasting gift to the new Commonwealth of Great Britain, creating a President of the Commonwealth, with limited powers of approving bills and dissolving parliament. As an interim, senior Conservative peer Lord Halifax was appointed to the role, with presidential elections scheduled to run alongside the next general election.

This would prove to be much further away than anyone anticipated, with the Second World War delaying it until 1945. But it was the War which made the Presidency the low-key, largely ceremonial post that it is today. The wide differences between Halifax and his wartime Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, persuaded Halifax that his role was largely that of a figurehead.

The first presidential election saw Labour's Ernest Bevin sweep into the job, complimenting Labour's landslide in Parliament. Alongside the sweeping welfare reforms, the 1945-51 Labour government did away with the last vestiges of monarchy, replacing the House of Lords with a proportional representation Senate and overhauling the honours system and the coinage. The British Empire was allowed to slowly fade into the Commonwealth of Nations.

This model of one political party winning the presidency and the House of Commons has continued pretty much ever since, with Harold Wilson's battles with President Willie Whitelaw in March-September 1974 being the notable exception. The selling off of the former royal estates was the big idea of the Thatcher-Tebbit administration in the 1980s, while the Blair-Brown partnership showed how the model could survive even personal enmity.

As for the Windsors, Edward's childless marriage meant that his niece, Princess Elizabeth, became the figurehead of the exiled family from 1972. The family retained a reputation for being fashion trendsetters, with the antics of Charlie Windsor providing a source of much amusement for the British tabloids.

There are still occasional calls for the monarchy to be restored, and speculation has grown following the decision of the PM David Cameron to attend the wedding in April. But President Cable has laughed off these suggestions, saying "A system which produces leaders who can be as different as Stalin or Mr Bean is no system for Britain.

What If... Coalitions Were Old News?

As we pass the first anniversary of the Conservative- Liberal Democrat coalition government, it seems laughable that many commentators last May were predicting the deal wouldn't have lasted this long. Given Britain's recent experiences of coalition, it should have been obvious that it was going to work; the example of 1992 should have shown that.

Before recapping why, it is worth imagining a world in which John Major won the general election of April 1992, leading the Conservatives into a fourth term in office. Quite how he would have coped with issues such as European integration, the war in the former Yugoslavia, BSE and the economy will never be known, but after such a long period already in office the Tories would not have been in for an easy ride.

Instead, the election produced a hung parliament, the first elected since February 1974. In his memoirs, In Office But Not In Power, Major blamed his defeat on the refusal of his Cabinet to let him campaign directly on the streets, saying it was beneath a Conservative Prime Minister to do so. Maybe, but with the memory of the poll tax still raw and the recession deepening it is hard to believe that this would have changed much. Meanwhile Labour, beset by accusations over hidden tax rises, dodgy broadcasts and triumphalism, kept its cool. Despite the Sun claiming it could win the election for Major, the television broadcasters made the best guess: the Conservatives took 301 seats to Labour's 298, with the Liberal Democrats on 29 and others on 23.

Haunted by memories of February 74, the Tory high command urged Major not to enter into any talks other parties, instead meeting Parliament and challenging it to bring them down. These vital days gave Labour leader Neil Kinnock time to hammer out a deal with Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown. This resulted in the first coalition government since the Second World War; the Lib Dems got six Cabinet seats, with Ashdown as Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Secretary. His main prize was the commitment to a referendum on changing the voting system and fixed four year Parliaments. The anger of many Labour backbenchers likely to lose their seats were bought off with a pure PR House of Lords. Prior to this vote in 1993, Kinnock's devaluation of the pound in response to speculative attacks was widely seen as an unpleasant but necessary step in dealing with the hangover of Thatcherism.

Despite a nail-bitingly close passage through the Common,s the referendum passed the public vote easily, with the hybrid AV+ system being implemented in Westminster elections and for the new devolved assemblies.

A staunchly pro-European foreign policy saw the coalition sign up to the new single currency and commit to UNPROFOR in the former Yugoslavia. At home, the Treasury team of John Smith and Gordon Brown oversaw increased but not excessive public spending to improve services and help pull the economy out of recession. In Northern Ireland, the dynamic and youthful Northern Irish Secretary, Tony Blair, used his charm to broker a historic power-sharing deal between the unionists and the nationalists, helping the province to begin to normalise. With these successes, the electorate saw no reason not to return the coalition in 1996 with a landslide majority. The Tories, nominally led by Ken Clarke but actually riven over the changes, was devastated.

The 2000 election, with Brown and Charles Kennedy now in the driving seats, saw another coalition landslide, but by 2004 the cracks were starting to show. Blair, by now a passionately pro-American Foreign Secretary, had persuaded Brown to back US military action in Iraq over the head of the UN, which was unthinkable for many Lib Dems. Kennedy informed Labour that he and his party could no longer serve in this government, and as a result after the 2004 election Brown found himself heading a minority government. However with the Tories under Iain Duncan Smith still not a coherent force, he got away with it until 2008, when he quit domestic politics to head up the IMF, handing over to Blair. Faced with the worst financial crisis in living memory and a resurgent Conservative Party under David Cameron, Blair's government fell following a dramatic Commons showdown in 2010 and he was forced to call early elections. Despite staving off the expected Tory landslide, Blair was powerless to stop Cameron and new Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, creating the first coalition since the Iraq War. It remains to be seen whether Labour, now headed by Blair's protege Alan Milburn, is capable of dealing with being on the other side of a coalition.

P.S. Kinnock-Ashdown Cabinet, 1992

Prime Minister- Neil Kinnock (Labour)

Chancellor of the Exchequer- John Smith (Labour)

Foreign Secretary- Gerald Kaufman (Labour)

Home Secretary- Roy Hattersley (Labour)

Defence Secretary and Deputy PM- Paddy Ashdown (Liberal Democrat)

Education Secretary- Jack Straw (Labour)

Health Secretary- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat)

Trade and Industry Secretary- Margaret Beckett (Labour)

Environment Secretary- Martin O'Neill (Labour)

Transport Secretary- John Prescott (Labour)

Employment Secretary-Robin Cook (Labour)

Social Security Secretary- Michael Meacher (Labour)

Energy Secretary- Frank Dobson (Labour)

Scottish Secretary- Jim Wallace (Liberal Democrat)

Welsh Secretary- Barry Jones (Labour)

Northern Ireland Secretary- Tony Blair (Labour)

Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons- Jack Cunningham (Labour)

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Alan Beith (Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader)

Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Graham (Labour)

Lord Chancellor- Lord Mischon (Labour)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Gordon Brown (Labour)

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- David Clark (Labour)

Minister for Political Reform- Robert Maclennan (Liberal Democrat)

Attorney General- Menzies Campbell (Liberal Democrat)