The Wit and Wisdom of... Teddy Kennedy

My brother need not be idealized or enlarged in death beyond what he was in life, to be remembered as a good and decent man, who saw wrong and tried to right it, saw suffering and tried to heal it, saw war and tried to stop it.
 

Those of us who loved him and who take him to his rest today, pray that what he was to us and what he wished for others will some day come to pass for all the world. 

As he said many times, in many parts of this nation, to those he touched and who sought to touch him: "Some men see things as they are and say why. I dream things that never were and say why not

Senator Edward Kennedy, speaking at the funeral of his brother, Senator Robert Kennedy, June 8th 1968. 

Three days earlier, Bobby Kennedy had won another primary race in his bid to run to be President in 1968. Leaving the victory announcement, he was assassinated as he made his way through hotel kitchens.

The Wit and Wisdom of... The Venerable Bede

I warmly welcome the diligent zeal and sincerity with which you study the words of Holy Scripture, and your eager desire to know something of the doings and sayings of great men of the past, and of our own nation in particular. 

For if history records good things of good men, the thoughtful hearer is encouraged to imitate what is good: or if it records evil of wicked men, the good, religious listener or reader is encouraged to avoid all that is sinful and perverse, and to follow what he knows to be good, and pleasing to God.

Should the reader discover any inaccuracies in what I have written, I humbly beg that he will not impute them to me, because, as the laws of history require, I have laboured honestly to transmit whatever I could ascertain from common report for the instruction of posterity.

I earnestly request all who hear or read this history of our nation to ask God's mercy on my many failings of mind and body. And in return for the diligent toil that I have bestowed on the recording of memorable events in the various provinces and places of greater note, I beg that their inhabitants may grant me the favour of frequent mention in their devout prayers.

Bede, from the introduction to The Ecclesiastical History of the English People, c. 730 AD.

First page of The Ecclesiastical History

The Day After

In my defence, I always said I thought the Tories would do better than expected. But I am still in a state of shock. I honestly didn't expect the Tories to win outright, or the SNP to do as well, Labour to fall back, or the Liberal Democrats to suffer such a spectacular collapse.

This is a new phase for people of my age. The last Conservative only government was in 1997, on the edge of my childhood memories. And they'd lost their majority in December 1996. All my coherent memories are of either Labour in power, or the Coalition. I've never had any experience of direct Tory rule. And on a personal note, this is the first time I saw the party I voted for not win; my previous general election vote was for the Liberal Democrats, who ended up in power. As a person on the left, I am gutted.

But... moaning aside, I do have a few observations.

1) Didn't Cameron do well?- Credit where it is due. David Cameron seemed almost disinterested through the campaign. I thought that even if he did well yesterday, he would be hounded out by the Tories for failing to win again. But today he stood on the steps of No. 10, having seized a majority in the Commons. He took over 11 million votes, more than Tony Blair in 2001 and 2005, beating his own total from 2010 too. The last Prime Minister to increase their strength whilst in government was Mrs Thatcher in 1983. If nothing else, he will go down in the history books for one of the surprising election comebacks of all time.

2) But not that well...- Let's crunch some numbers. Cameron's vote rose by a pathetic 0.8%. His 36.9% support represents the second lowest vote share for a government since 1832, when the first stirrings of democracy began to creep into our system. The only person to do worse was Blair in 2005, and when that government, by then under Brown, faced the voters in 2010, it was badly battered. Treating a little over 1/3 of the vote as majority support is dangerous. Cameron would do well to remember that.

3) Labour; as bad as it looks?- Yes. For Labour, the result was a catastrophe. After five years of Opposition, it managed to do worse than in 2010, amidst the Great Recession. It trails the Tories by 99 seats. Obliterated in its Scottish heartlands, stagnant or in retreat in England. Big names gone. Ed Balls out in Morley and Outwood. Jim Murphy defeated in Scotland. Douglas Alexander out-voted by a 20 year old student, who in three weeks will sit her university finals. An entire generation of Labour politicians have been swept aside. What is left needs to think long and hard about where it goes from here.

But... Labour's share of the vote rose, by 1.4%. They closed the gap between them and the Tories, from 7.1% to 6.5%. If not for the rise of the SNP, Labour would have many more seats. Ed Miliband fought a bloody good campaign. Obviously, Labour are in deep trouble. But there is some light amidst the dark.

4) The Lib Dems- I really felt for Nick Clegg. The party has paid the price for putting country before party. And what a price. The party has been devastated. It lost 86% of its seats last night. Its vote share collapsed from 23% to 8%. Big names out of office, in seats held for decades. I was expecting the local factor to help keep some Lib Dem MPs in. But so total was the collapse that this did not save them. 

Is this the end for them? The Liberal Democrats can trace a history back to the 1600s. They've been down to single figures of MPs before. They'll be back. Good luck Tim Farron, I'm sure you'll make an excellent leader.

5) The force unleashed- What happened in Scotland last night was mind boggling. The SNP took 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland, and half the Scottish vote. They have set themselves up as the authentic voice of Scotland. They alone speak for the Scottish people.

Unless, of course, you come from the 50% of Scots who didn't back the SNP. You have the choice of a Tory, a Lib Dem, and one Labour MP. As Gerry Fitt, the lone pro-Nationalist MP in Northern Ireland in the 1970s, used to say, he spoke for half of Ulster, while ten Unionists spoke for the other half. Our electoral system tends to exaggerate large leads when turned into seats. The Lib Dems actually got substantially more votes than the SNP. But the difference in seats is 48 in favour of the SNP. Under a fairer voting system, the SNP would still be happy, but not quite as much.

The big flaw in the SNP's plans was always evident. They would get rid of the Tories, and make Labour more radical. Of course, this depended on a Labour government they helped to prevent, and a hung parliament that never materialsed. Now what? Will the Scottish electorate be satisfied by very radical complaining?

The SNP's success is down to many reasons. But a big one is because, after the independence referendum last year, they successfully managed to equate 'Scottishness' with the SNP. Minor details like facts just bounce off the SNP, because they're not interested in trivial things like that. They are interested in beliefs. To be a true Scot, you must back the Nationalists. And nationalism is a troubling thing. It preaches division and sectarianism, and can end in dark places. This is an ugly force let loose in the UK, and the SNP may find in time that they have released a monster they cannot control.

6) Tee hee hee- Only time I've been pleased with the result first past the post gives. Yes, it denied voices to millions of people. But UKIP need to be fought and shown for what they really are, and if them not having a platform to preach their vicious message is part of that, then so be it.

There is a lot for those on the left to be afraid of in the next five years. Billions worth of further cuts, considerably more than we saw in the last five years The potential exit from the EU. A diminishing of Britain's voice in the world. Further pain for the poorest and most vulnerable in our society. The very existence of the UK.

But I will end on a positive. When I was born, Britain was just over halfway through a long period of one party rule, particularly partisan right wing rule at that. Yes, there was misery and suffering for many. But the country didn't end. The left did (eventually) bounce back. And that was when the Conservatives were led by their most electorally successful leader ever. For all he looks it today, David Cameron is no Mrs Thatcher.

Keep hoping, keep fighting.

I've Made My Decision

I can't remember exactly when I decided how to vote this coming Thursday.

Perhaps it was right at the start. In the twilight hours of May 11th 2010, as David Cameron took office at the end of the first general election I'd ever been part of.

Or maybe it was the next morning, when the man I had given my vote to stood next to Cameron amidst the May sunshine and the flowers, laughing and joking about their exciting new venture.

Maybe it was November 2010, when the party I had voted for went back on centuries of progressive principles, and its own claims of honesty, and saddled future generations with mountains of student debt.

Perhaps May 2011, when dreams of a fairer voting system were shattered by Tory duplicity.

Or March 2012, as I listened in disbelief to the Chancellor deliver his budget, putting taxes on lunches whilst cutting the top rate of income tax.

From September 2012 until February 2013, I was a near- NEET, working barely a few hours a week on a zero hours contract. Nothing will stoke your anger like unsocial hours, poor pay, a crappy job, and lots of time sat at home in despair.

Maybe it was the documentary I watched about foodbanks, in November 2012, which left me so angry I couldn't sleep that evening, so incensed was I at the thought that people were going hungry in a 21st century Western democracy.

And since 2013, the relentless rise of a political party which represents the most abhorrent parts of the body politic, which plays on the fears of the vulnerable, the poor, the exploited, and blames it on those from a different country. And the government, rather than taking the high ground, has pandered to the xenophobes.

That's not even counting the stuff I can't pin down. Bedroom taxes, badger culls, the EU. This government has not represented me in the slightest.

So sorry, Nick, but on Thursday you will not be getting my support again. I thought your party still had the remains of the Social Democratic Party in it. I was wrong.

Where does that leave me? The right wingers are out. Just on principle. Any political idea that sees the creation of money as being more important than the well being of the people can just sod right off.

The Greens. Ah yes. They have complicated things a lot. I am sorely tempted. But for every nine great policies, there is one fairly crazy one. No, I don't want Britain to leave NATO, have they seen what's happening in Ukraine? Actually, nuclear power stations are fine unless they were built by the Soviet Union. In fact, I think that being a member of Al-Quaeda, the IRA, or other internationally condemned criminal organisations is probably a crime, as I can't imagine they get many members who join for the benefits package. The Greens also surprisingly illiberal, with a nice long list of things that they would ban. I suppose my fear is that they've become a haven for idealistic, middle class lefties, who can campaign in poetry, but can't govern, to borrow from the late Mario Cuomo in the US. Oh, and Natalie Bennett. Most likely in the future, Greens. But not this time.

For 115 years, the left on this country has had Labour. God knows it hasn't always been perfect, or as left-wing as it could be. But in terms of real imporvements in the lives of millions of people, Labour has the track record, it has the ideas, it has the nouse. Hell, in Ed Miliband, it may even have the leader.

Now, I live in a safe Tory seat. But, in the midst of the mess of the morning after the night before, when the people will have spoken, but their message won't be clear, Ed Miliband is going to need every vote he can get in his quest for legitimacy. He's got mine.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bobby Kennedy, Mk. II

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I'm only going to talk to you just for a minute or so this evening, because I have some -- some very sad news for all of you -- Could you lower those signs, please? -- I have some very sad news for all of you, and, I think, sad news for all of our fellow citizens, and people who love peace all over the world; and that is that Martin Luther King was shot and was killed tonight in Memphis, Tennessee.

Martin Luther King dedicated his life to love and to justice between fellow human beings. He died in the cause of that effort. In this difficult day, in this difficult time for the United States, it's perhaps well to ask what kind of a nation we are and what direction we want to move in. For those of you who are black -- considering the evidence evidently is that there were white people who were responsible -- you can be filled with bitterness, and with hatred, and a desire for revenge.

We can move in that direction as a country, in greater polarization -- black people amongst blacks, and white amongst whites, filled with hatred toward one another. Or we can make an effort, as Martin Luther King did, to understand, and to comprehend, and replace that violence, that stain of bloodshed that has spread across our land, with an effort to understand, compassion, and love.

For those of you who are black and are tempted to fill with -- be filled with hatred and mistrust of the injustice of such an act, against all white people, I would only say that I can also feel in my own heart the same kind of feeling. I had a member of my family killed, but he was killed by a white man.

But we have to make an effort in the United States. We have to make an effort to understand, to get beyond, or go beyond these rather difficult times.

My favorite poem, my -- my favorite poet was Aeschylus. And he once wrote:

Even in our sleep, pain which cannot forget

falls drop by drop upon the heart,

until, in our own despair,

against our will,

comes wisdom

through the awful grace of God.

What we need in the United States is not division; what we need in the United States is not hatred; what we need in the United States is not violence and lawlessness, but is love, and wisdom, and compassion toward one another, and a feeling of justice toward those who still suffer within our country, whether they be white or whether they be black.

So I ask you tonight to return home, to say a prayer for the family of Martin Luther King -- yeah, it's true -- but more importantly to say a prayer for our own country, which all of us love -- a prayer for understanding and that compassion of which I spoke.

We can do well in this country. We will have difficult times. We've had difficult times in the past, but we -- and we will have difficult times in the future. It is not the end of violence; it is not the end of lawlessness; and it's not the end of disorder.

But the vast majority of white people and the vast majority of black people in this country want to live together, want to improve the quality of our life, and want justice for all human beings that abide in our land.

And let's dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago: to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world. Let us dedicate ourselves to that, and say a prayer for our country and for our people.

Senator Robert F. Kennedy, informing a crowd of people in Indianapolis about the assassination of Martin Luther King, 4th April 1968. Indianapolis was the only major city in the USA not rocked by race riots that night. Bobby Kennedy was himself shot and killed on 6th June 1968.

Why the SNP won't be 'holding the country to ransom' on May 8th

Imagine for a moment. It is 8th May, the morning after the night before. Once again, David Cameron has failed to win a majority for the Conservative Party. His Liberal Democrat coalition partners have paid the price for going in to government, and have been slaughtered at the polls. Between them, they cannot form a majority government in the House of Commons. If they're brave, they could try and face the Commons with a Queen's Speech. Either way, Cameron will not survive in government. And so he advises the Queen that she invites Ed Miliband to seek to form a government.

But then what? If opinion polling is anything to go by (and remember, it's not a million years since this howler showed why opinion polling isn't always reliable), then Labour will have suffered an electoral wipeout in Scotland akin to the collapse of the Scottish Conservatives in 1997. Polling currently shows the SNP taking somewhere in the region of 40-50 seats in Scotland, nearly all of them from Labour. Even if they take a 'mere' 25-40, this seriously hampers the chance of a Labour majority government, or even of Labour having more seats than the Tories.

Now, what I think of those polls isn't the issue. But they have dragged the entire election campaign sideways, and now the airwaves and the internet is obsessed by what demands the SNP will extract from a future Labour government, and what Labour will sacrifice in order to get back into power.

I can answer that. The SNP repeatedly say they want nothing from a future Labour government. Oh, it may look like they're demanding more money, or an end to Britain's nuclear weapons, or slowing down the pace of austerity. It sounds like they have demands aplenty, and that Labour will be dragged into promising the Earth. But it seems to me they are actually asking for nothing, and will probably get nothing.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, keeps on saying she will never allow a Tory government to survive at Westminster. That means that the SNP would vote down any attempt by the Tories to remain in government. That would put Labour in power, even if they had fewer votes and seats than the Tories. This sounds like the nightmare scenario for many; a weak Labour government at the mercy of Nationalist demands. But just stop and think for a second. Labour don't have to do what she says, or even pay any attention to it. Why? Because, having put Labour into power, the SNP will be trapped. They can't vote against any Labour ideas, because that will give the Tories a second shot. Scotland doesn't do the Tories. Are the SNP prepared to act in a way which brings them back? No. Labour can carry on as before, safe in the knowledge that the SNP have put them there, and are now stuck supporting them. All talk of policy concessions will vanish when it comes down a choice between a Labour government or a Tory one. The SNP will be a victim of their own success.

But suppose the SNP does use its nuclear option, and votes down Labour on a motion of no confidence. Then what? Even under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which is supposed to stop Prime Ministers calling an election whenever they like, I cannot see any way a Parliament could carry on if neither of the two largest parties could command the confidence of the House of Commons (technical term for 'get stuff through Parliament'). That would mean a second election, possibly as early as September, certainly way closer than 2020.

Is Ms Sturgeon really willing to fight two elections this year? To go back to the Scottish people, with Labour crying that the SNP have proven they cannot be trusted at the high table of power? Or face voters after bringing down Labour and letting the Tories back in? Either possibility would be catastrophic. Nicola Sturgeon laughed in the debate last week when Ed Miliband reminded her this is what happened in 1979, and the SNP was shattered for 18 years. She'd have done far better to listen.

Even if the Westminster Parliament staggers on, the Scottish Parliament is up for election in 2016. I reckon it would take some explaining if the SNP ran on an anti-Labour platform there, whilst its MPs propped up a Labour government in London. Or even worse for Scots, had allowed the Tories back in. The SNP certainly won't want to fight two elections in 2016; the contradictions between conduct at Westminster and Holyrood would cost the party dearly.

The SNP certainly are on a roll. I reckon they'll take a huge share of the Scottish vote, and a large number of Scotland's seats, on May 7th. But they've started to believe their own propaganda about what they can achieve, and it could yet be their undoing.

Growing Expertise

This morning I had a very stange experience. A face I knew was staring back at me from my TV. In the middl of a piece on lonliness in old age, someone in the year above me at university materialised and gave an explanation on this obviously serious issue.

This isn't a first, either. Last year, my thoughts were suddenly penetrated by the voice of someone I was in a seminar with in my final undergraduate year. Strangely, he seemed to have re-entered my mind to talk about the war in Ukraine. It transpired he was on the TV in the next room, speaking in his role as a defence analyst.

I now appear to have arrived at the age where people of my age are being interviewed on BBC News as 'people that are experts in something'. 

I'm now feeling incredibly old...

And wondering when a story on antiquarian perceptions of the prehistoric and early medieval past will need a comment... I'm sure the BBC know where I am...