It is a bewildering time to be on the British left.
2015 began full of hope. All the opinion polls were saying that David Cameron was not long for this world; although Labour had failed to decisively overtake the Tories, in the expected hung parliament parties of the left and centre-left were predicted to dominate. After only a single term, the Conservatives were heading back into opposition.
And then came the election. At 22:01, what I'd always said would probably happen was duly forecast; the Conservatives had improved on their 2010 showing. Within hours, it was clear that they'd done even better than that. Halfway through Friday, it was confirmed that the Tories had clinched an outright majority in the House of Commons. Not even the humbling of Nigel Farage in South Thanet could lift my spirits. Five more years of David Cameron. I'll be days off my 30th birthday before there's even a chance of seeing the Conservatives out of office.
Clearly, this called for a deep analysis of what had gone wrong for the parties of the left. How had their apparent support not translated into votes? For some parties, this was easy. The pseudo-leftist Scottish National Party didn't stand outside of Scotland, which certainly hampered their chances of further advance. For the centre-left Liberal Democrats, I reckon going into coalition in 2010, with all the compromises and u-turning that this entailed, may have lost them a vote or two. Certainly it lost them mine. The Greens? A mixture of the injustice of Britain's first past the post electoral system, and the injustice that the rest of us suffered in having Natalie Bennett unleashed upon us.
And what about that centre-left behemoth, the apparent alternative government in waiting? To have lost seats whilst gaining votes, shedding support in Scotland whilst picking it up in England and Wales presents Labour with a difficult message from the electorate. Clearly, this requires deep analysis, whilst not allowing the Tories to set the agenda and the message of the years ahead.
Instead, what Labour appears to have taken leave of its senses, simultaneously abdicating its responsibility as the Official Opposition to Her Majesty's Government, whilst plunging headlong into a leadership contest which threatens to ignite a civil war in the party.
Part of the problem is that Labour has no clear idea why it has lost. Was it too left-wing, or not left-wing enough? Was Ed Miliband really doomed because of his image problems, or did voters see through that and really reject his message? Have they ignored their working class base for too long, or failed to reach out to new constituencies? And what on Earth went wrong in Scotland? But in the rush to select a new leader, these questions have all been drowned out.
And what a race it is turning in to. The first person in was a Blairite, who has subsequently found out that saying things which go against the grain of the party's thinking hasn't endeared her to the members. Two well meaning but dull technocrats, who represent what so many voters detest in modern politics. And Jeremy Corbyn.
Ah yes, Jeremy Corbyn. A bastion of Labour's socialist wing since the early 1980s. Initially scraping onto the ballot, nominated by MPs who wanted to see his ideas debated and destroyed, Corbyn has created merry hell ever since. His hard-left ideas and policies are hugely exciting to party members, who feel this is their best chance to overthrow years of control by the Labour moderates and right-wing. Corbyn's support has surged, fuelled by many leftists, young and not so young, joining the party to get him elected. The token sympathy leftist might be about to win.
I'm torn over what to make of this. Much of what Corbyn says is music to my ears. I agree with much of his analysis over what is wrong with modern Britain, economically and socially. And I'd be happy to see many of his solutions implemented. And yet...
I know in my heart of hearts that Labour would not win under him in 2020. There is no evidence that the British electorate would flock to an avowedly socialist party. Labour has never been a socialist political party. The closest it has ever come was in 1983. That year, their hard-left manifesto was derided as "the longest suicide note in history." By a member of the Shadow Cabinet, a senior Labour MP. Labour crashed to a heavy defeat at the 1983 election, polling a mere 27.6%.
This was Labour's worst showing since 1918, an election fought in the fevered aftermath of the First World War, when Labour was barely a national political party anyway. They were only 2.2% away from coming
third, behind the moderate SDP-Liberal Alliance. Many voters told the party they had backed Labour despite the hard-left policies it espoused, not because of them. This struggle between the hard left and the moderates spanned nearly twenty years in all, and the chaos and division on the left enabled 18 years of Conservative government to go virtually unchallenged. At no point did it seem that a more left-wing Labour party was the way back to power.
There's no more recent evidence either. Despite what it claims, the SNP is not a socialist political party; a cursory glance at its record running Scotland will show that. The nationalist fervour gripping Scotland means that Labour could have put Keir Hardie and Karl Marx up as candidates, and they'd still have lost. The 'Green surge' failed to materialise, and the far-left parties mustered only a handful of votes between them.
Underlying all this is a twofold issue. Of course activists and members are delighted by Jeremy Corbyn. After years of seeing a party preach social democracy and practice capitalism, here is their chance to vote for 'One of Us.' The problem is, while he is an activist's dream leader, does your next-door neighbour want his finger on the button? The taking and exercising of power to advance its interests. Labour's interests are supposed to be speaking up for those who cannot speak for themselves, to paraphrase the late, great John Smith. They may have not always done it well, but at least they tried. I don't doubt Jeremy Corbyn's aims to do so, they are beyond reproach. But I do doubt his ability achieve this aim.
It's safe to say that the last Labour government hasn't had much good press recently. Even Labour MPs and members are given to kicking it. Apparently invading and destroying a Middle Eastern country, dragging the region into over a decade of conflict and destruction, wasn't exactly the smartest move, let alone the most moral. Neither was the dramatic assault on civil liberties, nor the slavish adherence to neo-liberal economics which brought the economy and the country to its knees.
And yet... What about the record investment in schools, hospitals, the welfare system, reversing two decades of underspending? Tax credits, the most redistributive measure introduced by any government since the 1940s? The National Minimum Wage, which has transformed the bottom of the labour market beyond recognition? Doubling maternity leave, let alone paternity leave? The Human Rights Act? Freedom of Information, Sure Start? Devolution? A ban on fox hunting? The smoking ban? Advances in LGBT rights which turned social and cultural attitudes on their heads in barely a decade? Peace in Northern Ireland? Hell, they should even be proud of the deficit, not racked up by government largesse, but by a textbook approach to a financial and economic crash to prevent recession becoming depression.
Crucially, these radical measures were often brought in without much fanfare. Labour can help its core supporters and interests, without spooking Britain's right-wing electorate. Having a populist right-winger as Prime Minister didn't stop progressive politics, at least at home. Overseas? That's for the International Criminal Court to decide, not for me. But the key is still the same; you do not need a socialist messiah to bring in leftist measures which help millions of Britons at the bottom end of society.
Unfortunately, I don't think any of the alternatives to Jeremy Corbyn are election winning material. But they offer a better chance of taking Labour forward on the road back to power, in helping those without a voice to have one at the heart of government. Jeremy Corbyn's heart is in the right place. His ideas are fantastic. But faced with the choice of a perfect left-wing opposition or a flawed left-wing government, I know which I would prefer.
That is why this morning I paid my £3 to become a registered supporter of the Labour party. I must be the only person signing up to vote against Jeremy Corbyn. But before Labour can help to save the country, it apparently needs saving from itself.
