What If... PM for PM?

'It was the phone call Gordon Brown had been dreading. "Gordon," said the voice on the line, "I think we need to have a little chat..." And that marked the beginning of the end really.'

The day was Monday, June 8th, 2009. With the arrival of the last results of the EU elections from Scotland, the electoral whirlwind which Labour had experienced the previous Thursday was at last clear. In the European elections, it had been driven into third place behind David Cameron's resurgent Conservative party and the fringe party UKIP, polling a mere 15.7%. In the local elections, it was even worse. Also pushed into third place, on 23% of the vote, Labour had lost all it's councils in this cycle; vast swathes of the country had not a single Labour politician in them. With a general election due within the year, this was the crisis point. Many Labour members were despairing, and the MPs were starting to panic. And nothing is more dangerous than a panicking backbencher. And so the plotters began to gather. It was plain that, under Brown, Labour would slip to a landslide defeat in 2010. But they had one major obstacle. The long Blair-Brown feud had left an assumption, that Gordon would be leader next; as a result, there were very few other senior figures with the stature to lead. More importantly, any challenger would look infeasible.

Enter John Bercow, then the recently elected Speaker of the House of Commons. He had been asked by Brown to make a ruling, which at the time appeared merely procedural, but would have a profound impact on the future of the country. Bercow was being asked to rule on whether a peer could answer questions in the House of Commons. Brown had a particular peer in mind. The crowning glory of Brown's 2008 cabinet reshuffle had been to resurrect the career of Peter Mandelson, one of the founding fathers of New Labour, but since 2004 living in semi-disgraced exile in Brussels. Brown made Mandelson a Lord, and put him charge of the new Business department, charging him with leading Britain's charge to economic growth. Given Mandelson had previously resigned from the cabinet not once but twice, and that the two men were bitter enemies, the comeback was all the more remarkable. Bercow did sign off the motion, to allow Mandelson to do battle with his Tory shadow Kenneth Clarke. Mandelson's superb performances in the Commons began to make people sit up and take note, a position strengthened when he received a thumping reception from the 2009 Labour conference. PM, as he was affectionately known, had won round both Brown and the Labour members- could the country be next?

And so the plotters struck. On October 20th an opinion poll showed Labour in third place nationally. With this cue, Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, former cabinet ministers, wrote to all their fellow MPs to try and trigger an election. Although Brown narrowly staved off a no-confidence vote in his leadership, he was mortally wounded. It was the call from Mandelson the next morning, brilliant recorded in Alistair Campbell's diary, which ended things, as he persuaded Brown that, either he went, or the party would tear itself in two. The cabinet had steeled itself, apart from the ultra-Brownite Ed Balls and his wife, Yvette Cooper, who left along with Brown, to simmer on the backbenches. As the cabinet met that morning, they needed to put forward a name to fill the vacancy. 'Why not Peter?' suggested Harriet Harman, the Deputy Leader. And so it went through. Lord Mandelson was now the first peer to be Prime Minister since Lord Salisbury in 1901. He had gone from twice resignee to Prime Minister in eight years. He was also only the second openly gay leader in any Western democracy, behind Iceland. It remained to be seen what others would think.

The press had a field day, railing against the move as an undemocratic coup conducted behind closed doors (which, to be fair, it was). The Opposition parties were hardly any better. There was widespread confusion as to whether it was even possible for a peer to be Prime Minister, as constitutional pundits weighed in on whether the idea was merely dormant or had become illegal. It was also pointed out that the last time there had been a third Prime Minister in the same Parliament was 1940, and the economic woes of 2009 were not that bad. But amidst all the criticism, there were some bonuses. The Murdoch press was less aggressive than feared, while Labour members, for the first time in ages, began to feel hope.

Mandelson set to work right away. He immediately asked Alistair Darling to announce a programme of cuts to public spending, to demonstrate that the government understood the importance of getting the national debt under control. Darling chose to not replace Trident and to delay new buildings for schools, along with some superficial cuts to welfare. While the Brownites howled, many in the press and the public were impressed with Mandelson's honesty, compared with Gordon Brown's burying of his head in the sand.

The Tories had been outflanked. Cameron and George Osborne seemed whiny and empty when compared to Mandelson's experience, and Labour drew neck and neck with them in the opinion polls. The deadlock remained as the election campaign got underway in 2010. Labour's manifesto promised to half the deficit in the next Parliament, while the welfare state would be radically restructured to ensure that it returned to it's original role of a safety net. They also pledged to continue with the constitutional reform they had begun in 1997, and to work with the EU and the G20 to introduce a Robin Hood Tax. Many of the New Labour voters who would otherwise have deserted the party were impressed, while Mandelson's cool performance under fire in the TV debates helped improve his image versus Cameron. Even the Sun admitted that it's earlier endorsement of Cameron may have been a bit hasty. However, the 13 years of Labour rule left many feeling unsure whether they could back Labour under any leader. The result was a hung parliament, with the Conservatives on 286 seats, Labour with 279 and the Liberal Democrats on 57. But given how Labour had been expecting to do, it felt like a victory, and to the leader, the recently de-nobled and narrowly elected MP for Durham North-West, they gave the credit. True, plain old Peter Mandelson, as he now was, proved unable to prevent the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from forming, but the coalition's narrow majority, plus it's turbulent time in office since, mean that many now expect Mandelson will return to Number 10 in May 2015, if not sooner.

P.S. Mandelson Cabinet, 2009

Prime Minister- Lord Mandelson

Chancellor of the Exchequer- Alistair Darling

Foreign Secretary- David Miliband

Home Secretary- Alan Johnson

Justice Secretary- Jack Straw

Defence Secretary- Bob Ainsworth

Health Secretary- Andy Burnham

Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Alan Milburn
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- James Purnell
Work and Pensions Secretary- John Denham
Transport Secretary- Lord Adonis
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Hilary Benn
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Ed Miliband
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Jon Cruddas
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain
Northern Irish Secretary- Patricia Hewitt
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Liam Byrne
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Geoff Hoon
Leader of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Royall

What If... The Gipper Got In Early?

At last, the grand spectacle that was the US Presidential election is fading from memory; but don't worry, it'll soon be time for the primaries to be restarting, and with the incumbent barred from standing again, you can bet these will start again early. Some bemoan this constant electioneering, and wonder aloud if the primaries actually matter?

Ask the late Gerald Ford. In 1976 Ford was plunged headlong into the fight of his political life. Having become President in 1974 by default, when the disgraced Richard Nixon had resigned amid the Watergate scandal, leaving Vice-President Ford to take the helm. Ford had instantly alienated many moderate voters by pardoning Nixon for any crimes he may have committed whilst in office, and a sluggish economy put the President behind all likely Democratic candidates in the polls. Meanwhile, the GOP's right wing was infuriated with Ford's perceived easy going foreign policy, which they saw as betraying South Vietnam and bowing to the Soviet Union. At their head was the outgoing Governor of California, former film star Ronald Reagan, who had been the darling of the conservative movement since he gave a rousing speech in support of Barry Goldwater's doomed 1968 presidential run. Reagan announced a primary challenge to Ford in autumn 1975, and steadily ate into Ford's delegate lead; by the 1976 Republican National Convention, the race between the two men really was too close to call.

The two men vied for the remaining delegates, but it remained impossibly close. Eventually, Reagan just pipped Ford to the post, thanks in part to delaying the announcement of moderate Senator Richard Schwekier as his running mate, which may otherwise have cost him the conservative vote. With the Convention in chaos, Reagan imposed order with a fantastic speech, urging voters to rally around him, proclaiming his vision of America as a 'Shining City on a Hill.' The GOP was enthused, and Reagan hit the road with the momentum behind him.

Even so, the election proved to be very close. The Democratic nominee, former Governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter, was running as a Washington outsider to try and capitalise on the public revulsion over the corruption of Watergate. Also a Washington outsider, Reagan neutralised this advantage, and proved a much more effective media campaigner than Carter, dismissing his criticisms in the TV debate with the swipe 'There you go again.' And yet, Carter's message that the Republicans weren't to be trusted hit home, and in the week of polling the two candidates were neck and neck. In the end, Reagan squeezed home, winning 271 electoral votes and a small plurality of the popular vote. Carter returned to Georgia, later to be UN Secretary-General, but for now a broken man.

Reagan assumed office in 1977, and immediately set his plan for economic recovery in place. Under Nixon and Ford, the economy had begun to falter, with growth dipping and inflation surging. Reagan and his advisors believed that they had the answer. A short, sharp, shock of deflation, achieved by slashing taxes, spending and regulation, would eventually cause inflation to fall. Reagan warned the American people that things would get worse before they got better, and in that first element his administration succeeded brilliantly. Unemployment surged, as thousands of businesses went bust, and inflation continued to rise out of control. The economy, which had been recovering from the severe bust of 1973-75, plunged back into recession. The appointment of Reagan's economics guru, Arthur Laffer, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1978, signalled that there would be no turning back. A view more in touch with that of most Americans was the CIA Director, George Bush, who labelled the strategy 'voodoo economics.'

Away from the USA, Reagan's foreign policy did little to endear the world to the United States. He adopted a hard line towards the USSR, which responded by severing virtually all diplomatic ties with the West, seemingly taking the world to the brink of nuclear war. The refusal to negotiate the end of the US presence at the Panama Canal led to American forces there effectively being under siege, and covert CIA aid to Afghan resistance fighters lit a spark under the future threat of Islamic fundamentalism. However, it was Iran which came to define Reagan's presidency. He pledged as much help to the beleaguered Shah as possible, yet was unable to prevent the Shah being toppled in the Islamic Revolution. Reagan then committed a massive blunder, by offering the Shah refuge in the US. The response of the revolutionaries was to storm the US embassy in Tehran and take the staff hostage. Through most of 1979 and 1980, the crisis dragged on, until in  April 1980 Reagan took the ultimate gamble. Operation El Dorado Canyon was launched, with US war planes pounding Iranian military installations and special forces landing in Tehran to try and rescue the hostages. A secret deal with the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, also saw him launch a land invasion of Iran. The mission was a disaster, with the hostages being executed, and the subsequent oil embargo by OPEC plunging the West further into economic crisis.

President Reagan now looked like the reckless cowboy many had warned he would be. With the jobless queues growing at home, and the US humiliated abroad, Reagan lost the 1980 presidential election to Ted Kennedy by a landslide; not even Kennedy's murky past at Chappaquiddick could save Reagan. President Kennedy immediately accepted the resignation of Arthur Laffer, and put his own man Paul Volcker in the driving seat. Between them, these two men helped to restore the US economy back to being the world's prime economic force, while overseas Kennedy helped to restore the US' tarnished reputation, especially thanks to his cooperation with Mikhail Gorbachev as the Soviet Union unravelled. His universal healthcare programme, while controversial, was eventually gratefully received by millions of Americans. As for the Republican party, they would not be trusted with returning to power until 1996, when moderate John McCain was entrusted with the Presidency. However, this trust was still fragile, as Mitt Romney found out to his cost when he presided over the recent Great Recession, which saw voters flock to President Clinton in 2008 and again just last week.

P.S. US Presidents, 1969-Present Day

1969-1974- Richard Nixon (Republican)
1974-1977- Gerald Ford (Republican)
1977-1981- Ronald Reagan (Republican)
1981-1989- Edward Kennedy (Democrat)
1989-1997- Al Gore (Democrat)
1997-2005- John McCain (Republican)
2005-2009- Mitt Romney (Republican)
2009-2017- Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bill Clinton, Mk III

I end tonight where it all began for me; I still believe in a place called Hope.

Bill Clinton, accepting the Democratic Party nomination for President, July 16th 1992.

The Wit and Wisdom of... JFK

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.

President John F Kennedy, Inaugural Address, 20th January 1961

Four More Years

Four years ago I was barely a fresher, and should have been concerned with going out, getting hammered, and whatever it is freshers actually do. And yet four years ago tomorrow, I dragged myself out of bed at 06:55. I was desperate to hear the news. Went for the radio (those of you who remember my old laptop will understand why it wasn't really an option...). And then heard these magic words:

"US Senator Barack Obama has opened up a large lead over Republican opponent John McCain in...

To be brutally honest, I didn't listen to the rest of the report. I'd heard enough. The Democrats were back in the White House, and the first election I'd followed properly had been won by a candidate who seemed to epitomise cool. Especially when compared to the man who was then in the Oval Office:

It now seems that winning was the easy bit for the junior Senator from Illinois. And this time round, even victory is in doubt. So I'm going to stay up and watch it, just to be on the safe side. I hope that, in November 2016, I can sit down and write a piece saying how Obama succeeded. Here's to Hope.

The Wit and Wisdom of... Harry S. Truman

All of you, I am sure, have heard many cries about Government interference with business and about "creeping socialism." I should like to remind the gentlemen who make these complaints that if events had been allowed to continue as they were going prior to March 4, 1933, most of them would have no businesses left for the Government or for anyone else to interfere with

President Harry S. Truman, 1950. Two years earlier, Truman had pulled off a spectacular election victory for the Democrats, despite being miles behind in the polls throughout the campaign.