The Wit and Wisdom of... Barack Obama

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term. But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as president. And we know the government can't solve every problem.

But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join in the work of remaking this nation, the only way it's been done in America for 221 years — block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night.

This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were.

President-Elect Barack Obama, victory speech, November 4th 2008

What If... Prime Minister David Davis?

What a roll our Prime Minister is on. Having charmed first David Letterman in the USA, then charmed his party at conference the other week, this week closes with a political bombshell; we're going to the polls in early November as part of a snap election. And who can blame him? Ahead in the opinion polls, and with an easy advantage over Ed Miliband, it would be foolish to pass up this golden opportunity.

There's also the chance that the PM favours autumn elections. After all, it was in the autumn of 2005 that David Davis became leader of the Conservative party, narrowly beating the slick, young moderniser David Cameron. Many in the media had long tipped Davis as the front runner. However, he gave a poor conference speech, and it briefly looked as if Cameron had leapt into the lead. But out in the shires, where the Tory members were, experienced, Thatcherite rigour beat new, cuddly modernising any day. Even so, it was close. Many attributed Davis' last minute surge to his key role in bringing about Tony Blair's first parliamentary defeat, over plans to introduce 90 day detention without trial. The triumphant Davis wasn't able to be rid of the Cameroons entirely, and was required to keep many of the so called 'modernisers' in the Shadow Cabinet.

Davis got off to a good start. Blair's popularity was plumbing rock bottom. Davis rapidly pulled ahead of Blair in the polls, and kept this lead through 2006 and 2007. Davis' strategy was built on a crucial idea; that the Conservatives no longer needed to apologise for their governance of Britain between 1979 and 1997, but instead needed to show how they could govern Britain successfully in the future. To this end, he promised an "authentic socially-just conservatism," an idea which his humble roots boosted enormously. Lower taxes, lower spending, and toughness on crime and immigration were at the heart of his policies, which he began to lay out from early 2007. His opponents slammed this as little more than Thatcherism by another name, but the opinion polls seemed to show Davis was more in tune with the public. Indeed, by mid 2007 many were so convinced by the ideas that the Tories had laid on the table that new Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided not to call an early election, so as to give Labour time to try and sway the electorate back. Big mistake. Brown's popularity went into freefall, almost as much as the global economy did. Davis' strident assaults on the excessive state spending used to prop up the collapsing financial sector struck a chord with the public. But it was the happenings of mid-2008 which really set Davis up in the public eye.

Gordon Brown decided he would attempt to reintroduce the failed legislation on longer detention without trial. When it passed the Commons despite another huge Labour rebellion, Davis resigned as an MP, saying he wanted to take his fight to the country, and therefore triggering a by-election. Despite initial temptations to leave Davis to his stunt, in the end Labour also stood as the possibility to topple the Leader of the Opposition was too great. However, Davis had little to fear; we won over 80% of the vote, Labour crashed to fourth behind the Lib Dems and the Greens, and Davis' authority in the Conservative Party, almost derailed thanks to the by-election, was now stronger than ever. The Tories leapt into a clear opinion poll lead, and remained there until May 2010, when the general election saw them emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament. Brown resigned immediately, and Davis took power at the head of a minority government, promising to slash the fiscal deficit and return Britain to growth.

One of Davis' first announcements as Prime Minister was to close the entire Department for Energy and Climate Change, created in 2008 by Brown. It's functions were merged back into the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, headed by David Cameron, however the snub to Cameron and his favoured cause was clear. This, combined with a freeze in benefits for the entire 2010-2015 Parliament, allowed the new Chancellor, number-savvy Philip Hammond, to proclaim that the deficit was almost eliminated. Davis dealt very well with a series of early crises, such as shootings in Cumbria and Northumberland, handling the apology for Bloody Sunday and identifying a series of quangos which could be abolished. However, he also earned admiration from many on the left by refusing to raise tuition fees for university study in England from £3000 per year; indeed, he promised when the money was available to reduce fees as "people in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue."

Steering a delicate balance on the European stage between cooperation and opposition, and an early intervention in Libya, marked Davis out as a great foreign policy Prime Minister. Meanwhile, reforms in the NHS and the City got going, albeit not without controversy. And economic growth returned, but at a fragile rate. And then came the summer of 2012. With the Olympics and the Jubilee providing an enormous feel good boost, and with Ed Miliband making little headway for Labour, Davis decided to go for broke, and try and seek the majority mandate he so wished for.

With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, buoyed by support from students and those attracted to the promises of benefit reform and a referendum on Britain's EU membership, it is hard to see how Davis can lose. He seems to be well placed to be the first Tory leader in twenty years to win an election outright, and Davisism looks to be the course of the future.

Davis Cabinet, 2010

Prime Minister- David Davis
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Philip Hammond
Foreign Secretary- William Hague
Home Secretary- Theresa May
Justice Secretary- Ken Clarke
Defence Secretary- Liam Fox
Education Secretary- David Willetts
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Business and Enterprise Secretary- George Osborne
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- David Cameron
Transport Secretary- Eric Pickles
Culture, Media, Sport and the Olympics Secretary- Chris Grayling
International Development Secretary- Mark Field
Scottish Secretary- David Mundell
Welsh Secretary- Cheryl Gillan
Northern Irish Secretary- Owen Paterson
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Justine Greening
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir George Young
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Srathclyde
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office- Andrew Mitchell
Attorney General- Dominic Grieve

What If... Edwina Had Talked?

Poor John Major. To think that once he was tipped as a future Tory leader, possibly even prime minister. First elected to Parliament in 1979, he had risen through the Whips Office and the Social Security Department, until in 1987 he became Chief Secretary to the Treasury. In 1989 he became Foreign Secretary, and within months was back at the Treasury as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He seemed to be going places.

But those who tipped him as a leader had reckoned without 'Honest John's' personal life. And it would cost him dear. On his first day at the Treasury, the Sun ran a spectacular headline: 'MAJOR'S FOUR YEAR AFFAIR WITH EGG MINISTER.' The story had been leaked by Edwina Currie, the egg minister in question, still bitter after being sacked as a junior health minister the year before amidst a storm over eggs and salmonella. The pressure on Major was intolerable, and after a week he was forced to throw in the towel and resign. It appeared that his career was over.

Fast forward a year, to November 1990. Mrs Thatcher's grip on power was precarious. Huge public rage over the poll tax was matched by internal turmoil within the Conservative party, with ex-Cabinet minister Michael Heseltine sharpening his claws for the inevitable showdown. The resignation of Sir Geoffrey Howe, the last survivor of Thatcher's 1979 cabinet, precipitated the collapse of Thatcher's premiership. Narrowly missing victory in the first ballot of the leadership contest, she was persuaded by her MPs to stand aside in the interest of party unity. Instead, the second ballot was contested by the Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, who appealed to many of the same Tories as Heseltine did. But Thatcher would rather see Hurd in No. 10 than her arch rival, and her lukewarm backing propelled Hurd into office.

Hurd's premiership got off to a pretty good start. He persuaded Heseltine back into the cabinet, and his new Environment Secretary set about dismantling the hated poll tax in favour of council tax. Chris Patten was promoted to head up the nation's finances as recession loomed. And there was a surprise comeback for John Major, to be in charge of the Department for Education, where he promised a 'back to basics' approach to schooling. Hurd was also lucky in that foreign affairs gave him an early opportunity to appear prime ministerial. The UN invasion of Iraq in 1991 boosted Hurd's standing in the Tory party and in the country at large, and encouraged him to seek an early election in June 1991. However, with the economy still flat-lining and memories of Thatcher still fresh, Hurd was lucky to hold onto his overall majority, which was cut from 102 to a mere 11.

Further troubles lay ahead, as Hurd and his fanatically pro-European Foreign Secretary, Kenneth Clarke, jetted off to Maastricht for the negotiation of a new EEC treaty. Although the pair managed to secure a British opt out from the proposed single currency, their acceptance of the Social Chapter was a gift to the new Labour leader, John Smith, while the Tory right seethed with rage. This unholy alliance wreaked havoc as the Maastricht Treaty was forced through the House of Commons in 1992, and Hurd sacrificed almost all of his political credibility to keep his government afloat in the lobbies, with the suspension of many Tory MPs bringing the government to the brink of collapse.

Then came Black Wednesday. In September 1992 the pound crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and Chris Patten was forced to resign as £14 billion was wiped off the stock market in a single day. He jetted off to Hong Kong as the colony's last British Governor; even worse, the Liberal Democrats won his Bath seat in the ensuing by-election, depriving Hurd of a majority in Parliament. These were dark days indeed. Increasingly seen as out of touch and lacking authority, Hurd was increasingly beleaguered. Nonetheless, he struggled on through 1993, until in 1994 his luck ran out. The government was defeated on Ken Clarke's new budget, and the country was plunged into a snap election. Despite Clarke's nursing of the economy back to health, money had not yet started to flow back into the pockets of voters. Fifteen years of Conservative rule was starting to drag, and under John Smith Labour finally appeared a safe and credible alternative. The drama only increased when, whilst out on the stump, Smith suffered a fatal heart attack. His deputy, Margaret Beckett, was rapidly installed as the new leader, just in time to lead Labour to a thumping 95 seat victory. The Labour leadership election was won by Beckett, using her position as Britain's second woman Prime Minister to dominate John Prescott and Gordon Brown in the campaign.

Under Labour, the country's economic recovery gathered pace, with the new minimum wage and programmes such as Sure Start helping to boost prosperity for all. Meanwhile, peace finally came to Northern Ireland, while Scotland and Wales enjoyed devolved government. Beckett found welcoming allies in both the EU and the Democratic US President Bill Clinton. Compared to life under Labour, the Tory alternative articulated by new compromise leader Michael Howard, who'd beaten Ken Clarke and Peter Lilley after Hurd retired to the Lords, appeared to be a throwback to a different, less appealing era. This doubtless contributed to his landslide defeat by Beckett in 1998. A Conservative government would not return until 2011, when the youthful David Cameron seized power by the skin of his teeth after barely beating Gordon Brown amidst the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Such is the power of political scandal.

P.S. Hurd Cabinet, 1990

Prime Minister- Douglas Hurd
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Chris Patten
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- Ken Baker
Defence Secretary- Tom King
Education and Science Secretary- John Major
Health Secretary- William Waldegrave
Trade and Industry Secretary- Malcolm Rifkind
Social Security Secretary- Peter Lilley
Environment Secretary- Michael Heseltine
Employment Secretary- Norman Lamont
Transport Secretary- Michael Howard
Energy Secretary- John Wakeham
Scottish Secretary- Ian Lang
Welsh Secretary- David Hunt
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Brooke
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Michael Portillo
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Norman Fowler
Leader of the House of Commons- John MacGregor
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Waddington
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- John Gummer

P.P.S. Prime Ministers, 1990-2012

1990-1994- Douglas Hurd (Con)
1994-2000- Margaret Beckett (Lab)
2000-2008- Tony Blair (Lab)
2008-2011- Gordon Brown (Lab)
2011-2012- William Hague (Con)

The Wit and Wisdom of... George McGovern

It is simply untrue that all our institutions are evil,... that all politicians are mere opportunists, that all aspects of university life are corrupt. Having discovered an illness, it's not terribly useful to prescribe death as a cure

George McGovern, who was hammered in the 1972 US election by Richard Nixon, who died over the weekend.

Follow the Link to Find Out More

Just in case my regular readers have missed this fact, I am no longer a history student, despite what the URL says. I am now a history graduate. Again. This is quite nice, as it means the late night Latin stints, the desperate essay writing and the trying-to-work-out-what-some-monk-a-long-time-ago-wrote sessions are all a thing of the past.

Unfortunately, there is another problem. I've got to get a job. Which, it turns out, isn't as easy as the university made it out to be. For some reason, the most severe, two stage economic downturn since the Great Depression has reduced the demand for medievalists. I read in the paper the other day that there are 66 graduates chasing every retail shopfloor job. God only knows how many are chasing graduate level jobs. Experience is now apparently far more valuable than the pieces of paper which gave the skills apparently needed for a job. Experience which I haven't got, having been too busy being educated. 

And then there are the rumours. The rumours that job centres are starting to tell those of us who have more than one degree to quietly leave their MA off their CV, because it'll hurt our chances of getting a job.

Perhaps understandably, I'm more than a little bit cross about this. But it's ok, because I'm not alone. If you're looking for empathy, sympathy, or maybe an excuse to laugh at the overeducated and underprepared, then this might be your cup of tea:

http://medievalists-for-hire.tumblr.com/

Romneyshamble of the Week

Last night saw the beleaguered US President, Barack Obama, come face to face with Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger for the White House, in the second debate. Since the first debate a couple of weeks ago, Mittens has managed to narrow the polls to the point where it is entirely conceivable he might win. Obama needed a solid performance, or a Romneyshambles.

Luckily, he got both. Mittens was recalling his early days as Governor of Massachusetts, and how he was struggling to find female cabinet members:

"And – and so we – we took a concerted effort to go out and find women who had backgrounds that could be qualified to become members of our cabinet. I went to a number of women's groups and said: "Can you help us find folks," and they brought us whole binders full of women."

I seriously worry about the filing policies of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts...

The Wit and Wisdom of... Bill Clinton, Mk II

I'm going to give you this election back, and if you give me this election back I'll never forget who gave me a second chance, I'll never be like George Bush, and I'll be with you till the last dog dies.

Governor Bill Clinton, appealing to Democrats at the New Hampshire Primary, 1992

Moaning Medievalist

I'm not normally one to promote petitions, or even to sign them. But, once in a while, I do get the odd one. Apparently, in all its wisdom, the University of Birmingham has decided to close the Institute of Antiquity and Archaeology, lay off 'some' staff and dismember the departments and spread them throughout the university. What's more, this decision has apparently been taken by the Head of the IAA, in a move most kamikaze pilots would heartily approve of. And the review of the whole affair has been conducted in the best of the New Labour tradition, where the outcome had been determined in advance (Allegedly. Because you can say whatever you like, providing it contains the word allegedly).

I happen to like the early Middle Ages. And don't like rigged consultations. Or the unceasing battering which the Higher Education sector, especially the humanities, is taking at the moment. The petition is below. You know you want to sign it too:

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/save-the-iaa/

Things that were ..things that are...and some things that have not yet come to pass

The thing about being an historian and a political junkie is that you tend to notice dates and anniversaries more than most. Be it battles, births, deaths, or other events, they all stand out. Especially when accompanied by the BBC news feature which reminds people of the daft haircuts and clothes they used to endure. But this week marks another anniversary. If all the hype from the time was to have been believed, this week Parliament would be dissolving, and we would be heading to the polls. Because this week is five years since the speculation that Gordon Brown, recently crowned as Prime Minister by a Labour party largely delighted to see the back of Tony Blair, reached a fever pitch. I would highly recommend this account of those days, before the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression turned everything on it's head:

http://dpmcbride.tumblr.com/post/32931120073/5-years-on-the-election-that-never-was

And, in a shameless personal plug, here are the, on reflection somewhat naive, thoughts of yours truly on the subject from last year:

http://inaneramblingsofahistorystudent.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/what-if-gordon-brown-won-election.html

The Wit and Wisdom of... FDR

For too many of us the political equality we once had won was meaningless in the face of economic inequality. A small group had concentrated into their own hands an almost complete control over other people's property, other people's money, other people's labour — other people's lives. For too many of us life was no longer free; liberty no longer real; men could no longer follow the pursuit of happiness. Against economic tyranny such as this, the American citizen could appeal only to the organized power of government.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, addressing the Democratic National Convention, 1936, the last time a northern Democrat was elected to a second term in the White House.