Wednesday, 28 March 2012

The Wit and Wisdom of... Michael Foot

"The Conservative Party has always had the idea that it was born to rule, although I should have thought that the country had been cured of that impression long since."


Michael Foot, winding up the debate on the no confidence debate in Jim Callaghan's government, 28th March 1979

What If... Gordon Brown Never Led Labour?

Recently, I've begun notice that Tony Blair has started to make a surreptitious return to the world of domestic politics. Apparently his advisers think that, after five years away from the UK political scene, its safe enough for him to start giving his opinion again. 2007 does really seems like another world now. Despite only being five years ago, it is hard to recall how the political landscape of Britain lay. Tony Blair had been Prime Minister for nearly a decade, but was on the brink of standing down. Everyone knew what would come next. His long serving Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, would step into the role of Prime Minister, a job he had been waiting for since the infamous alleged Blair-Brown deal of 1994. Quite how Brown's economic prowess would have helped him during the crash remains one of the biggest what ifs of modern British history, however. For there was another candidate lurking in the wings.

John Reid, who since 1997 had been a Transport Minister, the Scottish Secretary, the Northern Irish Secretary, the Leader of the House of Commons, the Health Secretary, the Defence Secretary and finally Home Secretary, was arguably the most experienced government minister Labour had had since Jim Callaghan in the 1970s. Now, in the dying days of Blair's government, Reid began to emerge as a 'Stop Gordon' candidate. A committed Blairite from before even Blair had been one, he had a high profile as the man who had fronted Britain's response to a severe terrorist plot in 2006. Unlike Brown, he had experience of running several high-spending government departments, and was arguably more in touch with Labour's grassroots and traditional support base.

Even so, when he announced in May 2007 his intention to run for leader, few seriously expected him to do more than prevent the impression of a coronation. Brown was a formidable campaigner, and had been the heir apparent for as long as anyone could remember. What could possibly go wrong?

The problem with this presumption is that it missed the fact that many who voted in the leadership election thought Reid more in touch with their views. His manifesto promised to reward those who worked, whilst not handing out to those who didn't. There was a strong law and order theme, at a time when crime was a big concern for many people. Slowly, and in an increasingly bitter atmosphere, Reid began to catch up with Brown in the polls. But still it seemed unthinkable that Brown could lose.

As the results from the bruising leadership race were read out, it was still neck and neck. In the end, Reid beat Brown by the narrowest of margins, less than one percent. The grimace on Brown's face at the special conference said it all. Worryingly for Reid, his victory had depended heavily on Labour's members and trade unionists; the Parliamentary Party was firmly with Brown. Although widely missed at the time, this would come back to hurt Reid.

In the ensuing Cabinet reshuffle, Reid offered Brown the role of Foreign Secretary but Brown was having none of it; it was the Treasury or nothing. After a heated meeting lasting over an hour, during which there are allegations the two men nearly came to blows, Brown threw in the towel and resigned from the Cabinet. Luckily the Presidency of the World Bank was up for renewal and Blair managed to persuade George W. Bush to nominate the recently knighted Sir Gordon to the post. And with that masterstroke, the Blairite victory in the Labour party was complete. The rest of Reid's new Cabinet was dominated by Blairites, with Alistair Darling at Trade and Industry left to carry the torch for the Brownites. The victory of Brown's long term ally, Harriet Harman, in the Deputy Leadership election, was an annoyance, but didn't obviously represent a massive thorn to Reid.

John Reid already had a reputation as good in a crisis, and his first summer as Prime Minister only enhanced this. Within days, a string of terrorist attacks in London and Glasgow were narrowly averted, and Reid took much of the credit for the excellent response of the security services. This was barely over when the British weather intervened, causing widespread flooding which wrecked homes and livelihoods, not to mention wreaking a substantial death toll. The government promised extra money to boost flood defences, and the footage of Reid touring the affected areas and helping the emergency services went down well with the electorate. The speedy and efficient response to an outbreak of foot and mouth disease contrasted with the crisis-laden atmosphere under Blair in 2001. Reid also cemented his image as tough on crime when he visited Liverpool in the aftermath of the shooting of 11 year old Rhys Jones, vowing to bring those responsible to justice. With his standing in the polls rising with every passing week, many observers wondered if he would take advantage of Labour's rise and call a snap election for the autumn; certainly neither David Cameron nor Sir Menzies Campbell were able to land a blow on Reid.

But this speculation was dangerous. By allowing it to run away, the 'Reid Recovery' was wiped out when the Prime Minister announced at the Labour conference that he was going to wait until "2009 or 2010, to see the job through" before calling the election. Many pointed to the strong performance by the Tory Shadow Chancellor George Osborne at the Conservative conference, plus worrying signs on the economic front.

This story, that of financial crisis, is what has come to define the Reid years. Given that the Prime Minister had a Phd in economic history, and the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ruth Kelly, was a former economist, the new government looked well placed to deal with the economic storm which broke around it. Kelly's initial moves to stabilise, then nationalise Northern Rock were well received, and Reid was able to point the finger of blame firmly at Brown for failing to plan for the long term in his decade as Chancellor. But then things got worse. In 2008 the entire banking sector teetered on the edge of collapse, and Reid decided to make an example of one bank to warn the others. The disappearance of Lloyds from the UK high street after almost 250 years sent shockwaves through the system, and the government's economic credibility was wiped out in a few short weeks. It didn't help that the next week, the Royal Bank of Scotland was nationalised, leading to accusations of the Scot favouring the Scots. The next few years were spent arguing whether or not to start cutting public spending to pay for the bailouts; Reid was in favour, while a Brownite rearguard in Cabinet and the party resisted the move. Attempts by Alistair Darling to encourage the growth of UK manufacturing were widely praised, but it was really a case of too little too late. It didn't help that at all major world economic summits, including the G20 here in the UK, the press tended to focus on the brooding presence of the World Bank president, Sir Gordon Brown, who was helping to shape the response to the crash in such a way that it helped developing nations. In comparison, Reid looked beleaguered.

It's all too easy to view a premiership as a one story narrative. Reid's was far from it. Also dominant was the war in Afghanistan. In 2006, as Defence Secretary, he had given the go ahead for the deployment of British forces to Helmand province, assuring the public "they will leave with not a shot being fired." As the death toll mounted, and the government was berated for failing to provide adequate equipment, these words came back to haunt Reid again and again. His refusal to launch an independent inquiry into the war in Iraq ensured another sore was left open to drain Labour's support. On law and order, Reid was a real hit with Labour's traditional base. However, many began to fear that things were going too far. The heavy police crackdowns during the G20 may have protected the summit, but left many people unsure as to whether the police had made the situation worse, especially once it emerged they had accidentally killed an innocent bystander. The ID card scheme was speeded up, control orders became ever more draconian and an wound was reopened when Reid decided to reintroduce legislation to the Commons to increase detention without trial for terror suspects to be increased to 90 days. The Tories were able to find common cause with the Liberal Democrats and Labour discontents on the cause of civil liberties, with home affairs spokesmen David Davis and Chris Huhne helping to put the measures into serious doubt. Once again, the bill was defeated, but the damage was already done to the Prime Minister. Labour's Brownite wing, still smarting from their leader's defeat in 2007, had gone along with Reid at first, but from early 2009 onwards they were in a barely-concealed revolt, with Brown's protege Ed Balls taking the role of chief dissident outside of Cabinet. For David Cameron, this was all good news, as it put him in line for a landslide.

The 2010 election didn't quite turn out that way, however. Labour's vote actually rose in many inner city areas, where working class voters identified with Reid's strident anti-crime and anti-terror rhetoric. However, in areas with a high ethnic population, the perceived anti-immigrant bias this message could be interpreted as saw voters flock to the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. The lack of trust on the economy also saw Labour's vote plummet across the board, but voters weren't massively enthused by Cameron's warnings on cuts either. The result was a hung parliament, with a vastly increased Liberal Democrat contingent of 81. Many expected the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg to enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with Cameron. Instead, we were all astonished to see them enter into a full coalition, which placed economic credibility and civil liberties at the heart of its programme. Reid had already
resigned by this point, dismissing calls for a Lib-Lab pact by saying: "I think from the point of view of the electorate, the two losing parties trying to usurp the role of the major party - although I disagree with that party - will not be welcomed." In the ensuing leadership election, Labour only had one credible candidate, the man who had been shut out of Cabinet when his economic expertise was really needed and who had valiantly opposed Reid from the backbenches: Ed Balls' hour was now upon us.


P.S. Reid Cabinet, 2007

Prime Minister- John Reid
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Ruth Kelly
Foreign Secretary- Alan Johnson
Home Secretary- David Miliband
Justice Secretary- Jack Straw
Defence Secretary- Des Browne
Health Secretary- John Hutton
Education, Children and Families Secretary- Beverly Hughes
Trade and Industry Secretary- Alistair Darling
Work and Pensions Secretary- Hilary Armstrong
Transport Secretary- Hilary Benn
Communities and Local Government Secretary- Hazel Blears
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- James Purnell
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander
Culture, Media, Sport and the Olympics Secretary- Ben Bradshaw
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain
Northern Irish Secretary- Shaun Woodward
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Andy Burnham
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, First Secretary of State and Minister for Equality- Harriet Harman
Leader of the House of Commons- Geoff Hoon
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Adonis
Labour Chief Whip- Jacqui Smith

Tuesday, 20 March 2012

Road Signs

So today I finally managed to get out on my bike, which was nice as I haven't been on a decent bike ride in ages. However, it would appear while I've been off the road for a while, the meaning of some road signs have slightly changed. So there's:

Which means drive like mad down a tiny country road and not bother about anything organic which happens to be in the way.

Alternatively (according to York City Council, anyway) this is apparently the new symbol for 'Aldi this way'


More ridiculous signing will doubtless be shown as and when I come across it!

Sunday, 18 March 2012

What If... Britain had gone into Vietnam?

The Prime Minister's recent visit to Washington came amidst the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. With both US and British public opinion clamouring for an immediate end to the conflict, the Prime Minister and President urged caution. In a joint statement, they urged us 'to hold on to hope, because the day when things shall improve is coming.'


Unfortunately, we've heard that all before. In 1967, the embattled Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson, was engulfed in a political storm. Ever since coming to office in 1964, he had been battling to try and re-stabilise the pound, but he was failing. By 1967, his Chancellor, James Callaghan, gave him two options. He could devalue the pound, or bow to American requests for British military involvement in the war in Vietnam, encouraging them to ease pressure on sterling. Wilson was haunted by the memory of the Attlee government's devaluation in 1949, which he was sure had led Labour to being locked out of power during the 1950s. But on the other hand, if he got British forces into Vietnam sooner, there was every chance they'd be back by 1970 or 1971, in time for an election. Plus the easing of pressure on the pound would enable greater domestic spending, which would also help the chances of re-election. And so on November 19th 1967 Wilson went on TV to announce that, to protect 'the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank,' he had ordered the deployment of a Royal Marine Brigade to South Vietnam in the new year.


And so began Britain's involvement in the long, bitter Vietnam War. Within days of the Marines arriving, they were thrown into the depths of the conflict as the Tet Offensive broke on US positions. There was worse to come. As the North Vietnamese forces kept increasing in strength and ability, so London was pressured into sending more and more men to South East Asia. As the death toll rose, public opinion polarised. On the one had, many conservative-minded voters agreed with the stand against international communism, while the extra money did help to boost public spending on the NHS and social security. But this is all forgotten today in comparison to the huge marches against the war which became a permanent fixture in London, as did the protest vigil camp outside No 10 Downing Street. On campuses across the UK, the first generation of students to arrive at the new universities were radicalised and threw their full weight behind the protests. In the arts, in comedy, in the theatre, the world of film and fashion and especially music, an entire generation found its common cause. The songs by the Beatles (who returned their MBEs in protest), the Rolling Stones, The Who, The Kinks and countless other bands are amongst the best reminders of the social damage caused by the war. In 1969, it was leaked that a mild form of National Service was being mulled; the ensuring student riots wrecked many university towns, and led to the idea being quickly refuted, especially once it became clear that Prince Charles had become an unlikely figurehead for the students; would he be made to go and fight?


Unsurprisingly, Wilson was badly defeated in the 1970 election by Edward Heath. Many expected Heath, an ardent European, to bring the troops home immediately, especially as the crisis in Ulster was stretching the British army even further. But Heath was attracted to the policy of Vietnamization being pursued by new US president Richard Nixon, and decided to stick with him, even if it meant delaying his European ambitions until the later 1970s. He also did bring in a very mild form of conscription, gambling, like Wilson had, it could be over before the next election. In 1972 Nixon was re-elected by a landslide, helped in large part by this policy. In 1974 it also rewarded Heath, when the new Labour leader, anti-war supremo Michael Foot, was defeated on a manifesto which focused solely on withdrawal from Vietnam; it was dubbed by the Labour backbencher Gerald Kaufman: 'The Shortest Suicide Note in History.' In the end, Heath and Nixon's successor, President Ford, were able to withdraw their forces from mid-1975 onwards, although they were then powerless to prevent the fall of Saigon in that year.


As British forces wearily returned home, it was clear that the country would never be the same again. 8500 British men had died in Vietnam, now graced with their own memorial on the EmbankmentWho knows how many national leaders-to-be fell in the Mekong Delta between 1968 and 1975? Many people were denied their chance to serve the country. Political buffs have argued ever since that Labour could have won in 1974, had they chosen the enormously popular Denis Healey over Foot; however Healey was tainted by his time in Wilson's Cabinet as Defence Secretary when the troops went in. The same went for the Tories in the mid 1980s; the complicity of the Heath Cabinet in the war forced them to pick Margaret Thatcher as their leader, with dire consequences. It also made us more suspicious as a nation of war. The refusal of Francis Pym in 1982 to go to war over the Falkland Islands almost certainly lost him the 1983 election to Labour's John Smith, while Michael Portillo's defeat by Labour in 2003 is widely attributed to his support for the US in Iraq.


But the survivors did go onto make huge contributions to British life. The many plays, songs and films written about the conflict have kept us shocked, upset and thinking down the years: from Roland Joffe's The Killing Fields to Guy Ritchie's Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, it has been an enduring genre in British cinema, although the Captain played by Simon Pegg in 2008's Tropic Thunder shows we might finally be able to laugh at the war. Many comedians can draw on their experiences to give us a smile, while the current Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams is insistent his time 'in country' was what turned him into a man of God. In the world of politics, Chris Patten and Ian Duncan Smith were officers who served in Vietnam, while for Labour the SAS sparkle of David Davis was always an election winner. It is only now, with Labour Prime Minister Peter Mandelson looking for a way out of the Afghanistan conflict, that we can be said to be leaving the trauma of Vietnam behind.


P.S. Prime Ministers, 1964-2012


1964-1970- Harold Wilson (Lab)
1970-1979- Edward Heath (Con)
1979-1983- Francis Pym (Con)
1983-1991- John Smith (Lab)
1991-1999- Chris Patten (Con)
1991-2003- Michael Portillo (Con)
2003-2010- David Davis (Lab)
2010-2012- Peter Mandelson (Lab)


P.P.S. Labour Leaders, 1963-2012


1963-1970- Harold Wilson
1970-1974- Michael Foot
1974-1977- Anthony Crosland
1977-1979- Peter Shore
1979-1991- John Smith
1991-1995- Gordon Brown
1995-2010- David Davis
2010-2012- Peter Mandelson

P.P.P.S. Conservative Leaders, 1965-2012

1965-1979- Edward Heath
1979-1983- Francis Pym
1983-1987- Margaret Thatcher
1987-1999- Chris Patten
1999-2003- Michael Portillo
2003-2007- Iain Duncan Smith
2007-2012- William Hague

Tuesday, 13 March 2012

The Wit and Wisdom of... Tony Blair

"The reason for introducing the windfall tax is clear. There is no doubt that vast excess profits were made. There is also no doubt that it is essential that we give hope and opportunity to those hundreds of thousands of young people at present without them in our society. There will be a great deal of agreement, not just among those who do not have opportunity, but even among those who are perfectly well off, that if we do not tackle the problems of a growing underclass of people cut off from society's mainstream without any chance of a job, with poor educational opportunities, without the chance to do well in life, we shall end up, as the previous Government did, paying more and more in welfare bills and having less and less for future investment."


Tony Blair, at his first Prime Minister's Questions, 21/05/1997

Monday, 12 March 2012

As If to Prove a Point...

Ok, I take part of my last post back. It wasn't fair to single out undergraduates for the weird and wonderful parts of their conversations' you overhear; it turns out postgrads can add some colour to...

"I mean, it depends, people want very different things: Some just want dinner, some just want sex"

You're Doing It Wrong

"Apparently my supervisor wanted it to have a beginning, a middle *and* a conclusion! I'd never have thought of that!"

In the business, generic undergrad, we call that an essay; I'd advise you get used to it!

Friday, 9 March 2012

What If... The Wets Ousted Thatcher?

The Prime Minister cut a gloomy figure in his New Year's message recently. "The economy," he announced in his distinctive voice, "is likely to prove the greatest challenge for the Coalition." It's hard to disagree with him. Given how the last Conservative Prime Minister fared when the economy sank into recession, William Hague must be quaking in his boots.

Today, only serious history or politics buffs can remember the name Margaret Thatcher; aside from pub quiz questions on Britain's only female PM, she has left next to no obvious impact on the British political landscape. But in the early 1980s, it did not seem that way. Thatcher had come to power in 1979 and immediately embarked on an economic experiment called monetarism, which aimed to bring the money supply under control in order to tame inflation. Instead, inflation sky-rocketed as productivity nosedived, while her Chancellor, Sir Geoffrey Howe, insisted on using his Budgets to turn the screw even tighter. Meanwhile, the Labour party was busy being torn apart by fighting between the moderates and the hard left. It is small wonder that the new Social Democratic Party, formed by breakaway Labour moderates, proved so popular; it made a nice change to have someone nice to vote for.

For Thatcher, it was clear that she was walking a tightrope, but in 1981 her luck ran out. With the largest ever seen industrial collapse, rampant inflation and riots in the inner cities, many in her Cabinet felt the country was close to social collapse. When Howe presented a mini-Budget detailing more cuts in public expenditure, the so called 'wets' found their voice. Sir Ian Gilmour delivered the lethal blow when he quoted Churchill: "However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results." The Cabinet refused to back Howe, and Thatcher was forced to resign. The Defence Secretary, Sir Francis Pym, was propelled into Number 10, and he instantly announced an about face in economic policy, sacking Howe and placing Michael Heseltine at the Treasury. Pumping vast amounts of money into the economy helped to ease the pain of the international recession, but the damage was largely done. The depths which Thatcherism had reduced the country to were plain to see in 1982, when Pym was forced to negotiate a peace deal with the Argentinian leadership after their invasion of the Falkland Islands; savage cuts to the armed forces meant Britain was forced to watch the Islands be transferred to the UN Trusteeship Council. Meanwhile, the SDP-Liberal Alliance went from strength to strength, overshadowing both Labour and the Tories, picking up MPs from both parties.

The 1984 general election turned out to be one of the most dramatic election results of post-war British politics. The Conservatives lost their majority but remained the largest party, while the Alliance overtook Labour in votes, but not quite in seats. However, with the support of the Ulster Unionist Party and the abstention of Gerry Adams, the Conservatives, now under Heseltine, were able to continue in government, although his paper-thin majority and internal splits between the Heathites and the Thatcherites prevented him from getting many of his policies through. Somehow Heseltine managed to last four years, but the 'do nothing' label appended to his government did untold damage to his prospects. The Alliance, meanwhile, had merged into 'The Social, Liberal and Democratic Alliance', or Alliance for short, with David Steel as overall leader, attracting even more defectors from Labour and the Conservatives. In the 1988 election, the Alliance was propelled into office with a majority of 38. The Tories sank into second place, while Labour, riven between the remaining moderates and the increasingly powerful hard left, slumped into third place.

The Alliance immediatley used the goodwill behind it to repair much of the damages of nine years of Conservative rule. Targeted use of the public finances by the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, David Owen, helped to ease unemployment in the areas where heavy industry had all but collapsed, instead encouraging the reorientation of the economy towards emerging markets in technology, green products and light industry. The presence of an industrial policy helped the economy to survive the deep international recession of the early 1990s. The tax system was also transformed beyond all recognition; the introduction of a localised income tax headed off the now forgotten idea of charging people per head for local government, and the resultant abolition of national income tax in 1991 did wonders for the government's popularity going into an election year.

A range of political reforms were driven through, with the introduction of proportional representation in local government, the House of Lords and in the new devolved assemblies in Scotland, Wales and London. The temptations of power meant that PR in the Commons remained elusive, although the fixed term four year parliaments combined with the AV/PR hybrid devised by Shirley Williams (Affectionately known as Shirley's AV) proved to be enough for all but die-hard constitutionalists. Plans for a Northern Irish Assembly reached fruition in 1998 with the historic Good Friday Agreement, however the plans for elected English regional assemblies never really got off the ground.

But it was the change in social policy which really distinguished this government from its predecessors. Money was poured into benefits, education and health at times when the Conservative party had either frozen or cut these budgets. The halting of plans to introduce markets into the education system and NHS helped to prevent disparities opening up in these services, and ended fears of the emergence of a managerial class in these sectors. The progressive use of benefits put extra money in the pockets of millions of Britons, helping to boost the economy and the government's popularity in equal measures. Although often derided as gimmicks by the majority of the population, efforts to improve the position of women, ethnic minorities and other excluded social groups went down well with these groups and did have a small impact in the wider world.

The 1988 election marked the start of the long years of Alliance party dominance of British politics. David Steel proved a hit with the electorate, who happily returned him in 1992 by a landslide, in spite of the new electoral system. The Conservative party under Thatcher's lieutenant took a severe battering but remained in second place, while Labour, who had been led by Tony Benn since the takeover over the party machinery by the hard left in 1988, saw a collapse in their support, reducing them to a mere 37 seats. It was clear the Age of the Alliance was upon us. Steel repeated his landslide in 1996, before standing down in 1997 in favour of Tony Blair, who led the Alliance to two further landslides in 2000 and 2004. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives could land a blow on the Steel and Blair governments, who continued their efforts to change Britain for the better.

But when Blair stood down in 2007, handing over to financial genius and former Chancellor Chris Huhne, things began to change. Luckily, Huhne held the 2008 election before the near collapse of the global banking sector, but it still resulted in a much reduced Alliance majority. This financial and economic crash came to define his premiership, especially as he'd been the Chancellor during the period of 'light-touch' financial regulation of the banks which now came back to haunt him. The government's response was to open the taps on public spending. While this did help to take the edge off of the recession, it confirmed in the minds of voters a deep unease with ever increasing public spending, which to many people appeared to be out of control.  The MP's expenses scandal in 2009 epitomised the excess which people so hated.

The Conservatives, led now by William Hague, began to recover their position in the polls, offering to slash public spending, which by 2010 had reached alarming levels. Meanwhile Labour under Yvette Cooper finally began to undercut the Alliance from the left, saying it would better target public spending towards those at the bottom of the scale, the underclass which many believed the Alliance's policies had helped to create. However, with an election not due until 2012, it looked as if things would remain unchanged for a while.

What did change matters was the revelation in 2010 that Chris Huhne, whilst Welfare Secretary in 2003, had persuaded his ex-wife to take speeding points on her driving licence for an offence he had committed. Although many voters were bemused (Isn't that what *everyone* did?!) it was the final straw for those MPs who disliked the Prime Ministers abrasive style. Enough Alliance MPs abstained in a vote of confidence in April 2010 for the government to be defeated. Although the hastily installed Alliance leader Nick Clegg was able to hang onto second place in the ensuing election, and prevent a Conservative overall majority, he botched the ensuing negotiations with Yvette Cooper's much strengthened Labour. It looked to many like 2010 would be a year of two elections.

But they were wrong. To the shock of almost the entire British political establishment, Hague announced that, rather than run a minority government, he would instead establish a coalition with Cooper, who managed to guarantee many key (high spending) Cabinet posts for Labour ministers. If they could do it in Ireland, then why not here? When Cooper was attacked at her party conference for doing so, she responded with a blunt message: This was the first Conservative government in twenty-two years; will the public not reward us for clipping its wings? It remains to be seen if this high risk strategy can pay off.

P.S. Prime Ministers, 1979-2012

1979-1981- Margaret Thatcher (Con)
1981-1984- Sir Francis Pym (Con)
1984-1988- Michael Heseltine (Con)
1988-1997- David Steel (Alliance)
1997-2007- Tony Blair (Alliance)
2007-2010- Chris Huhne (Alliance)
2010-2012- William Hague (Con/Lab Coalition)

P.P.S. Conservative Leaders, 1975-2012

1975-1981- Margaret Thatcher
1981-1984- Sir Francis Pym
1984-1988- Michael Heseltine
1988-1993- Norman Tebbit
1993-1998- Malcolm Rifkind
1998-2001- Michael Portillo
2001-2003- Iain Duncan Smith
2003-2005- Michael Howard
2005-2012- William Hague

P.P.P.S. Alliance Leaders, 1976-2012

1976-1985- David Steel (Liberal)/ 1981-1985- Roy Jenkins (SDP)
1985-1997- David Steel
1997-2007- Tony Blair
2007-2010- Chris Huhne
2010-2011- Nick Clegg

P.P.P.P.S. Labour Leaders, 1980-2012

1980-1984- Michael Foot
1984-1988- Neil Kinnock
1988-1994- Tony Benn
1994-2005- Robin Cook
2005-2012- Yvette Cooper

Steel Cabinet, 1988

Prime Minister- David Steel
Lord President of the Council and Deputy Prime Minister- Sir Roy Jenkins
Chancellor of the Exchequer- David Owen
Foreign Secretary- Richard Wainwright
Home Secretary- Bill Rodgers
Defence Secretary- Paddy Ashdown
Health and Social Security Secretary- Alan Beith
Education, Training and Science Secretary- Dick Taverne
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Horam
Employment Secretary- David Penhaligon
Energy Secretary- Jim Wallace
Environment Secretary- Robert Maclennan
Transport Secretary- Sir George Young
Arts and Culture Secretary- Clement Freud
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Charles Kennedy
Scottish Secretary- Russell Johnston
Welsh Secretary- Sir Anthony Meyer
Northern Irish Secretary- Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Minister- Tony Blair
International Development Minister- Rosie Barnes
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Cyril Smith
Leader of the House of Lords- Lady Seear
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Minister for Political Reform and First Secretary of State- Shirley Williams

Hague Cabinet, 2010

Prime Minister- William Hague (Con)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Philip Hammond (Con)
Foreign Secretary- Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Home Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Defence Secretary- Liam Fox (Con)
Justice Secretary- David Davis (Con)
Welfare Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Michael Gove (Con)
Business Secretary- George Osborne (Con)
Environment Secretary- David Cameron (Con)
Higher Education Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Transport Secretary- Justine Greening (Con)
Employment Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Culture, Media and the Arts Secretary- Jeremy Hunt (Con)
Communities Secretary- Jon Cruddas (Lab)
Equalities Secretary- Harriet Harman (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Andrew Lansley (Con)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Ed Balls (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Welsh Secretary- Carwyn Jones (Lab)
Northern Irish Secretary- Owen Paterson (Con)
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Con)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Clarke (Con)

Wednesday, 7 March 2012

What If... Callaghan Had Called An Election In 1978?

Archive Clip on BBC Parliament, from the General Election of 1983


David Dimbelby: Well thanks very much for that there Robin. A truly insightful interview from Sir Edward du Cann there, Chairman of the 1922 Committee of course, warning the Conservative leader that after this result, he will have to think very hard about his position. Now, with almost 610 constituencies declared, lets have a summary of the night, and indeed the past few years, from our Political Correspondent:

Cuts to report


When the history books are written, the verdict on James Callaghan will be one of luck. Luck that his often beleaguered minority government survived the mid-1970s crisis, luck that he called the October 1978 general election before the industrial unrest which could otherwise have sunk his government, luck that he faced the unpopular Mrs Thatcher in that election, luck he was in power as North Sea oil began to flow ashore, and finally luck that he saw off the challenge from the left of his party which could otherwise have crippled his premiership.

Back in 1979 this night can barely have seemed possible. After scraping a victory in the October 1978 election by a nine seat majority, James Callaghan's government was faced with a huge swell of militant trade unionism, which came close to bringing the country to its knees. He must have thanked the powers that be that he chose to have that election then; there was some speculation he would wait until 1979. The strikes of the winter of discontent would almost certainly have robbed him of the premiership. But as we know, he saw off Mrs Thatcher, who was promptly dropped by her party, replaced by her former Cabinet colleague Peter Walker. Compared to his days running a minority government, a nine seat majority must have felt like a landslide for Callaghan. Now he could get on with trying to bring inflation further under control.

Strangely, the winter of discontent actually helped the Prime Minister. Armed with a fresh mandate, his fury that the trades unions had gone a step too far enabled him to force curbs on their powers through Parliament; the support of the Liberals and the Conservatives more than compensated for the revolt on the Labour left. Under the terms of the Act, trade union representatives were given places on the boards of the nationalised industries, and the quality of arbitration was beefed up. In return, the unions had to accept that never again would be they be allowed to hold the country to ransom, and legal curtails were placed on strikes. The assent of the Industrial Relations Act of 1979 led Tony Benn, the maverick left winger, to quit the Cabinet in order to protest against it. That was fine by Callaghan; he could do no harm outside the government, especially once the organisations that backed his ideas were placed on a list banning them from taking part in the Labour party.

Even as the world recession began to bite, Callaghan and his Chancellor, Denis Healey, used some of the proceeds of North Sea oil to ease the pain, whilst using the rest to help fund a huge investment in British industry. An export driven boom was the result, and Tory complaints about the size of the state fell on deaf ears; for most people, they had a job, and this was enough. Come 1980, Callaghan felt confident enough to retire, passing the baton over to Healey. For those on the left, this was the last straw; they quit the party, forming their own Democratic Socialist Party; as we've seen tonight, this was a road to nowhere.

Healey proved an immediate hit with the public, his easy going, friendly public persona offering a more attractive prospect than the Tories, bitterly divided between the Heathites under Walker and the free marketers led by Sir Keith Joseph and Mrs Thatcher. Even so, with the economy proving sluggish, the outcome of the next election was not clear.

All this changed in 1982, when news of the invasion of the Falklands reached London. As a former soldier himself, Healey knew it was imperative that the islands were retaken. His Defence Secretary, Roy Mason, who had made his name at the Northern Irish Office as a hard nut to crack, did wonders for the government's image by touring the landing zones at San Carlos Water, whilst Healey's popularity ratings can't have been harmed by the footage of him entering Port Stanley the day after the war ended, complete with his medals from his own war service. Many observers expected him to call a snap khaki poll, but, as we now know, he decided to wait until September 1983 so as to not appear opportunistic. With the economy on the up, his great gamble appears to have paid off.

Cuts back to the studio

David Dimbelby: Well, there you have it. And now we're going off air for a few hours, but we'll just leave you with the final computer prediction, which is:

Labour- 44.7%- 371 seats
Conservative- 34.2%- 241 seats
Liberals- 13.9%- 17 seats
Others- 7.2%- 21 seats

Giving a projected Labour majority of ninety two. From all of us here at the BBC, a very good afternoon.


P.S. Callaghan Cabinet, 1978

Prime Minister- James Callaghan
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Denis Healey
Foreign Secretary- David Owen
Home Secretary- Merlyn Rees
Defence Secretary- Bill Rodgers
Education and Science Secretary- Shirley Williams
Health and Social Security Secretary- Joel Barnett
Industry Secretary- Roy Hattersley
Trade Secretary- Albert Booth
Environment Secretary- Peter Shore
Employment Secretary- Harold Lever
Energy Secretary- John Morris
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary- Eric Varley
Transport Secretary- Fred Mulley
Scottish Secretary- Bruce Millan
Welsh Secretary- Neil Kinnock
Northern Irish Secretary- Roy Mason
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- John Smith
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- David Ennals
Leader of the House of Commons- Michael Foot
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Peart
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- John Silkin
Minister Without Portfolio- Tony Benn

P.P.S. Healey Cabinet, 1980

Prime Minister- Denis Healey
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Joel Barnett
Foreign Secretary- Shirley Williams
Home Secretary- Roy Hattersley
Defence Secretary- Roy Mason
Education and Science Secretary- Peter Shore
Health Secretary- David Owen
Social Security Secretary- Brynmor John
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Smith
Environment Secretary- John Silkin
Employment Secretary- Neil Kinnock
Energy Secretary- Michael Meacher
Transport Secretary- David Ennals
Scottish Secretary- Donald Dewar
Welsh Secretary- Alec Jones
Northern Irish Secretary- Peter Archer
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Albert Booth
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Peter Archer
Leader of the House of Commons- Bill Rodgers
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Peart
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food- Gerald Kaufman

It's A Funny Old World

The other day I went to the student cinema and saw a film. Or rather two films.

One was very, very good. It was about an elderly lady coming to terms with the death of her husband, who died almost a decade ago. She's suffering from dementia, and keeps seeing him there, talking to her, reminding her of the life they used to live and all the things they've done. Her relatives and friends try, but they can't persuade her to let go. Eventually, we are left to watch as he walks out of her memory, forever. I will admit, I even shed a tear or two.

The other film was a highly dramatised biopic, which portrayed the rise of a senior politician. Being a provincial woman with strong opinions, in a political party dominated by upper class males, who believe in not rocking the boat, she has to force her way to the top, proving hugely successful along the way. But in the end, those men get her and drive her from office.

Yes, I went to see the Iron Lady.

Now, I'm no film reviewer (I leave that in the much more capable hands of http://wouldtherealorsonwellespleasestandup.blogspot.com/). Neither do I have any personal axe to grind against Mrs Thatcher; while I was born under her, within four months she had been removed from office. But as a history student, I'm going to stick my two pennies worth in anyway...

My first thought was how much was left out. Obviously to fit in an active political career which spanned five decades would require quite a lot of editing, and I'm not sure it would have been quite as big a film had it focused on Thatcher the Parliamentary Undersecretary at the Ministry of Pensions and National Insurance. But it still felt rushed, and came dangerously close to being a piece of hero worship. Her whole time as Education Secretary under Edward Heath was condensed into two scenes, one where she was being savaged at the despatch box, and one where she was vainly trying to persuade Ted Heath in Cabinet to make a stand against the miners. Given at the time she bought into the whole Heath agenda, to the point of being the first minister to thank him at the meeting after the February 1974 election, this seems to be a gross distortion of the facts. But then again, it doesn't fit the image of 'woman fighting in a man's world', so presumably got ditched.

Also quietly left out was the fact that she sort of won the Conservative Party leadership in 1975 by accident. Had Aiery Neave not gone round all the Tory backbenchers and persuaded them she represented the ultimate protest vote, she would never have managed to unseat Heath and then see off Willie Whitelaw. Neave's role was also altered. He became the Only Man Who Believed In Her; presumably in this universe, he didn't offer to back Whitelaw and Sir Keith Joseph before, almost in despair, settling on Thatcher.

Bizarrely, the part I did most agree with was the depiction of her early premiership. The film did a good job of showing just how unpopular she was prior to the Falkland's War, and the deep, deep social unrest that mass unemployment and large scale industrial demanning caused. Also very well done was the panic this inspired amongst her Cabinet, with arch enemy Michael Heseltine being played brilliantly by Richard E. Grant.

However, next thing we know, Sir Geoffrey Howe is resigning in protest at her treatment of him, and the Cabinet are conspiring to bring her down. Hang on... what happened to the glory years of Thatcherism? Arguably, between 1983 and 1988 was when she was at the height of her political power. Year by year, policy by policy, the Britain of today was forged. The trades unions were battered into submission, the nationalised industries were sold off, the economy grew, the City of London became the capital of world finance, the threat from the USSR was slowly neutralised. Labour and the Alliance were too busy fighting for second place to even begin to damage her, and the only threat to her leadership, the Westland Affair, saw the resignation of Heseltine, not her. Apparently this didn't fit the plot of 'woman fighting in a man's world' either. The few bits they did show contained the reunification of Germany and her dancing with Nelson Mandela. Given she wholeheartedly opposed one Germany and long condemned Mandela as a convicted terrorist, these were perhaps not the best scenes to include.

So, back to November 1990. Ignored was the total ineffectiveness of her campaign to remain leader, ignored was the degree to which many of her Cabinet thought she had finally lost the plot, ignored was her slump in popularity in the country over the poll tax fiasco. It's still all about 'woman fighting in a man's world'. Heseltine reappears from nowhere, and we are made to hate him. We are also made to hate the Cabinet, a cabal of men conspiring to bring down the grocer's daughter. She accuses them of trying to save their own seats at the next election. As if, in politics, that was a bad thing? But maybe it had to be this way. Chris Patten, her Environment Secretary in 1990, later said the manner of her removal from office created the myth of the Lady Betrayed, and it would have been better to wait for the electorate to remove her in 1991 or 1992. Having seen this film, I now realise exactly what he meant.

I realise this has turned into a cross between a rant and a history lesson. Perhaps unsurprisingly, coming from me! But the film did cross the fine line between biopic and hero worship. For a figure who, twenty two years after she left office, continues to inspire and infuriate in equal measure, this was always going to be a hard nut to crack. But for me, it fell too easily into a Hollywood stereotype of struggle against adversity, whereas it could have been much, much more.

But perhaps there was an element of criticism, hidden away in the opening scene. Mrs Thatcher has slipped past her security guards and has gone to the corner shop to buy a pint of milk, where she can't believe how much it costs. Surely, that scene was written by someone with a long memory?