Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Complaining Customer, Round II

So today at work I got a call out to the main desk when I was covering for my manager. The exchange was suitably brilliant:

Receptionist: "Ah, Kieran, this lady here has a complaint about lane ropes."

Complaining Lady: "Hi there, I'm not sure if you're aware, but I have complained about this before..."

Me, in head: *Yes, I know, as one of times you did, you told *ME* that the service simply wasn't good enough and I wasn't doing my job properly...*

However, I grinned and bore it. Although she was still a pain...

Tuesday, 27 September 2011

What If... Gordon Brown Won the Election?

The speech by Mr Miliband to his party at the Labour party conference in Liverpool has been praised today by many left-wing commentators, who see it as part of the realignment of the party to the left. However, compared to the conference speech of 2007, it pales into insignificance. When Gordon Brown used his 2007 address to announce that he was calling a snap general election, Labour seemed to be on a roll. With Tony Blair gone, and Brown's cool handling of a summer of crises, Labour had shot into the lead in the opinion polls. Brown was also doubtlessly influenced by the example of James Callaghan, who became PM in 1976 but left an election until 1979, by which point his government had failed. As the half of New labour who had been the campaign organiser and produced many of the social policies, Brown was well placed to go to the country as soon as possible.

In comparison, the Conservatives were in turmoil. Despite being leader since December 2005, the youthful David Cameron had failed to fully stamp his authority across his party, with many members being unhappy over his attempts to modernise the party. While Blair had been PM this hadn't really mattered due to his collapsing authority and sinking popularity, but with the expected enemy gone the Tories were caught on the hop. As for the Liberal Democrats, the period after the 2005 election had been a traumatic one for the party, with Charles Kennedy resigning due to alcohol problems and Sir Menzies Campbell failing to make an impact with the public at large.

In the first autumn campaign since 1974, Brown presented to the country a programme he said would "Promote Britain and promote Britishness." This appealed to many people. Also, there were signs of trouble ahead for the economy, and although Labour had been in power for ten years before, people were more worried by the prospect of Conservative cuts than the record of Tony Blair. As for the Conservatives, they stumbled fairly early on, when their promise to all but abolish inheritance tax was attacked as being nothing more than helping the rich. It also soon became apparent that their economic policies were lacking.

When polling day came in early November, Labour's vote share actually rose, as people were attracted to Gordon Brown's agenda of 'Promoting Britishness and Britain'. However, the 2005 result was revealed to have been a fluke, as this translated into a reduced number of seats, leaving Brown with an overall majority of 12. The Tories also saw a modest rise in their seats and votes, but it was not enough to save Cameron, who was ousted as Conservative leader in January 2008 by the 1922 Committee, placing his erstwhile ally George Osborne in the job. The Lib Dems lost 7 seats. It seemed that, for now, Brown was safe.

But then the unexpected happened. The trouble over Northern Rock, and the rapidly darkening economic prospects, convinced Brown that such a precarious majority would not see him through a full Parliament. So the first meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party after the election was astonished to here their leader say he was going to seek a coalition with the Lib Dems. In the talks which followed, Sir Menzies Campbell managed to extract generous terms from Brown, both in terms of policies and government posts. The right wing media both laid into the coalition with humour and malice, saying it would not last the year.

They were wrong. The public quite liked the idea of politicians working together, and the near collapse of the world economy meant that both parties were able to pitch the deal as being in the national interest. It also gave Brown the excuse to ditch those ministers he had been less than happy working with: John Hutton paid dearly for saying that Brown as PM would be "an effing disaster."

With respected economic mind Vince Cable at the Treasury, backed by Alistair Darling, the economy was well placed amidst the economic storm which broke around it from 2008 onwards. Meanwhile, Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Secretary Ed Balls embarked on a huge investment programme to resurrect British industry, while his activities in the City of London caused the banks to walk in fear as some were nationalised, while all were divided into 'investment' or 'high street' banks, as well as heavily taxed.

Away from economics, the government did adopt a number of Liberal Democrat ideas. ID cards were scrapped by the new Home Secretary Alan Johnson, while the Health and Education departments under Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes took on a distinctly liberal flavour, with the Academies programme being halted in favour of more inclusive comprehensives. A new department, for Climate Change and Energy, under Chris Huhne managed to ban free plastic bags in supermarkets, as well as imposing tough climate change targets; however, the government had to agree to disagree over the issue of nuclear power. Ruth Kelly at Transport was charged with bringing Britain's rail network up to date, and by 2009 work had started on a new London-Manchester maglev, with plans in place to extend it to Exeter and Glasgow. The key Lib Dem demand of political reform was tackled by Sir Menzies Campbell and his protege Nick Clegg, who along with Douglas Alexander and Andy Burnham introduced proportional representation in local elections and provisions for the Alternative Vote and the right to recall your MP after the next general election. These measures helped to soothe public rage over the MPs expenses scandal, which hit all parties badly.

By May 2010 the economy, which had plunged into recession, was starting to grow again, and Brown and Sir Menzies stood down together as party leaders and PM and Deputy PM, saying the time had come to pass the baton on to the next generation. A Cabinet reshuffle ensued; Charles Kennedy's political rehabilitation was completed by him becoming Home Secretary, where he gained the praise of both police and public by patrolling with the police during this summer's riots, while new deputy Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson became a thorn in the side of the SNP as Scottish Secretary. New star Nick Clegg also became a full Secretary of State in charge of the Justice Department, although his attempts to replace shorter jail sentences with community service were mercilessly hounded by the Tories.

Labour also saw changes, with its new deputy leader, John Cruddas, making his mark as Communities Secretary in the way he managed to appeal across the social spectrum and his well thought ideas for local communities. Veteran Alan Johnson became Foreign Secretary, as he had the verve to pull it off. Stephen Twigg, the new Universities Minister, was instrumental in getting the government to abolish tution fees in favour of a time-limited graduate tax. The coalition also broke with political precedent by appointing the first ever MP from Ulster as Northern Irish Secretary, David Ford, the widely respected leader of the non-sectarian Alliance Party.

But all the focus was on the new leaders; could they do enough to secure re-election in 2011/12? With the election being left till 2012 it remains to be seen, but with the Lib Dem's new leader, Chris Huhne, being instrumental in the 2009 Copenhagen Earth Pact and Labour's David Miliband having taken the historic step to throw Britain's clout behind the bid for Palestinian statehood, George Osborne has a huge mountain to climb.

P.S. 2007 General Election Results

Labour- 329 seats- 38.4%
Conservatives- 233 seats- 34.7%
Liberal Democrats- 55 seats- 22.1%
Democratic Unionist Party- 7 seats- 0.9%
Scottish National Party- 6 seats- 1.3%
Sinn Fein- 5 seats- 1.0%
Plaid Cymru- 4 seats- 0.6%
Social Democratic and Labour Party- 3 seats- 0.3%
Ulster Unionist Party- 2 seats- 0.4%
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland- 1 seat- 0.2%
Independent- 1 seat- 0.1%

P.P.S. Brown Cabinet, 2007

Prime Minister- Gordon Brown (Lab)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council- Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem) Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State- David Miliband (Lab)
Home Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Defence Secretary- Des Browne (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Health Secretary- Simon Hughes (Lib Dem)
Transport Secretary- Ruth Kelly (Lab)
Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Jack Straw (Lab)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary- Jacqui Smith (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Ed Miliband (Lab)
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- James Purnell (Lab)
Innovation, Universities and Skills Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Lab)
Northern Ireland Secretary- Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Alistair Darling (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Leader of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman (Lab)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Steel (Lib Dem)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster - Andy Burnham (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Political Reform Minister- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Minister Without Portfolio- Douglas Alexander (Lab)

P.P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2010

Prime Minister- David Miliband (Lab)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Home Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Defence Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Health Secretary- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Transport Secretary- Sadiq Kahn (Lab)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary and First Secretary of State- John Cruddas (Labour Deputy Leader)
International Development Secretary- Simon Hughes (Lib Dem)
Work and Pensions Secretary- John Healey (Lab)
Climate Change Secretary and Deputy PM- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem Leader)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Tom Watson (Lab)
Scottish Secretary and Paymaster General- Jo Swinson (Lib Dem Deputy Leader)
Welsh Secretary- Lembit Opik (Lib Dem)
Northern Ireland Secretary- David Ford (Alliance)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for Political Reform- Ed Miliband (Lab)
Lord President of the Council and Minister for Financial Reform- David Laws (Lib Dem)
Leader of the House of Commons- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Steel (Lib Dem)
Universities Minister- Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Minister Without Portfolio- Douglas Alexander (Lab)

Monday, 26 September 2011

What If... Oswald Mosley vs Neville Chamberlain

Brimingham, election night 1924. Even as the first Labour government is falling across the country, they have cause for hope here. One of their star candidates, a young Tory defector Sir Oswald Mosley, is trying to unseat the former Conservative Health Minister Neville Chamberlain. As the votes come in it is clear that it is going to be close. Then the result; Mosley had beaten Chamberlain by 7 votes. His triumphal victory salute was a ray of sunshine for Labour on what was otherwise a bad night for the party.

Given the trajectories of the two mens' careers, it is hard to forget that Chamberlain was widely expected to go far. The son of political legend Joseph Chamberlain, he was widely touted as a future Chancellor of the Exchequer, maybe even Prime Minister. Instead, by defeating the Chamberlain tradition in its home of Birmingham, Mosley propelled his own career to new heights. During Labour's years in opposition in the 1920s, he quickly established his credentials as one of the brightest and best of the new intake of Labour MPs. This was to be crucial to his survival after his resignation from the Cabinet in 1931 over its inability to solve the economic crisis engulfing the country. He apparently considered leaving Labour and starting a new party, but was perusaded by friends to stay and fight for the soul of his party. When Ramsay MacDonald split the Cabinet by joining the National Government and crushed Labour in the ensuing election, Mosley was one of the few survivors, and as one of the leading rebels against MacDonald was catapulted into a senior role as Shadow Chancellor. He used this position to advocate a vast programme of public works to drag the county out of depression. When Clemet Attlee became leader in 1935, Mosley was the obvious choice for his deputy.

But the shattering defeats of 1931 and 1935 might have left Mosley trapped in a party of opposition forever. It was the Second World War which transformed Labour's prospects. In May 1940, when Tory PM Viscount Halifax was replaced by Winston Churchill, Labour were invited into the War Cabinet. Mosley was made Home Secretary and Lord President of the Council, with almost total control over the domestic war effort. One of his first acts was to imprison Neville Chamberlain, who had veered right after his defeat and had led the British Union of Fascists through the 1930s. The contributions of Labour ministers to the war effort helped to sweep them into office in 1945 by a landslide.

Mosley's role in the war effort and his radical economic thinking had seen many tipping him to be Chancellor, so there was widespread shock when Attlee made him Minister of Labour. It seemed such an under-use of talent. But Mosley got the better of his critics again. He managed to position himself as a grand "Minister of Nationalisation", helping to drive through the Attlee welfare state. Under him, areas such as coal, steel, shipbuilding, gas, water, electricity, telecommunications, the railways, canals, road haulage, civil aviation and even the Bank of England were taken into public ownership, workers were given representation at the top levels of the organisations and huge amounts of money were pumped into them. In partnership with Nye Bevan, Mosley also managed to ram the National Health Service through the opposition of the Conservatives and the British Medical Association. Against these changes, the Tory opposition of Winston Churchill floundered, helping Attlee to win a landslide victory in 1950. Shortly after, he retired, and there was only one obvious alternative: so in 1950, at the age of 53, Sir Oswald Mosley became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Despite a rocky start at No 10, with the Korean War eating into public finances, Mosley went on to become one of the more successful Prime Ministers of the 20th Century. His major road building programme created the modern 'Speedway' network which connects all of our major cities, while the plans for high speed rail would later come to fruition in the 1970s. While there were no more nationalisations, the creation of the People's Bank (an arm of the Post Office) helped to create an enduring national institution, which came to the rescue of the Labour government in 2007-2009 when it was the springboard for the recapitalisaton of the banking sector. In foreign affairs, Mosley presided over the granting of self rule to many of Britain's colonies, later setting in motion the wheels of decolonisation. Rising prosperity on the back of economic recovery enabled the end of food rationing, contributing greatly to Mosley's landslide re-election in 1955.

But after 1955 he suffered his greatest setback. The Suez Crisis, when Mosley refused to use force to cajole President Nasser of Egypt into lifting tolls on the Suez Canal, saw him lambasted in the press. His foreign policy response, to join the nascent EEC, failed to excite the imagination of the public. On the domestic front, the lack of any new radical policies deprived him of the initiative, and new Conservative leader RAB Butler proved a formidable opponent in the House of Commons. The unexpected imposition of controls on immigration was also a shocking departure for a left wing government, and convinced many voters the time was right for a change. The end came in 1959 when it was revealed that his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hugh Gaitskell, was sleeping with the wife of British novelist Ian Fleming. Mired in scandal, Mosley called a general election; the fact that Butler only won by three seats is a testament to the affection which many voters held Mosley and his Labour party in, despite all that had come to pass.

Mosley's rise to the top may look inevitable, but it could all have been so different. Had he lost to Chamberlain in 1924, he may have never entered politics again, or gone off on a different political trajectory altogether. Chamberlain would doubtless have not swung to the far right, and may have remained in the government, although his strident rhetoric and uncompromising attitude may not have survived the policy of appeasement. Aside from his achievements in government, Mosley had a long lasting impact on Britain by dragging its politics to the left, thus forcing all political life into a more left wing setup than anyone could have imagined. His family remains a significant player in British politics, although his son's chances of becoming PM himself were greatly harmed by tabloid accusations of a sex scandal involving; you guessed it, James Bond characters.

What If... Scotland Broke Free?

The recent Scottish elections have caused many people to take another look at England's northern neighbour, with the Scottish First Secretary promising a referendum on the relationship between Scotland and the UK. Inevitably, memories of the other Scottish referenda spring to mind.

The 1979 referendum on Scottish devolution is often seen as the moment when the future of the United Kingdom changed forever. Despite only being endorsed by a narrow majority, and technically failing to meet the government's requirements, the Callaghan administration decided to ignore its backbench critics and set up the Scottish Assembly, with its limited powers over home affairs, health, education and the environment. The Scottish National Party was delighted with the result, however the fury of many Labour backbenchers meant that Callaghan could not survive the vote of no confidence held in March 1979, losing by a single vote. In the subsequent election, Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives edged into power with a majority of 43, and the SNP suffered heavily, being reduced to two seats. However, it had still delivered, and was thus more a victim of the electoral system than anything else.

However, despite being a pro-Union Tory, Thatcher found herself unable to reverse the Scotland Act of 1978, which was now ingrained in the mind of the Scottish people, so was forced to hold elections to the new Scottish Assembly in 1980, alongside local elections. The result was a resounding victory for the Labour party, however only four seats separated the SNP, the Liberals and the Conservatives, showing that the nationalists were already on the road to recovery. The new Assembly immediately found a role as offering an alternative voice for the Scots against the ravages of Thatcherism, which hit Scotland especially hard. As unemployment soared and Scottish industry was devastated, the Assembly under First Secretary Bruce Millan tried its best to help by protesting to the Westminster government and running job creation schemes. Many Scots felt it didn't do enough, and were increasingly drawn to the 'go it alone' attitude of the SNP. In the 1983 UK general election, not a single Conservative was elected in Scotland. The collapse of the Scottish Conservatives, combined with the factionalism then tearing Labour apart led to the election of a minority SNP Assembly executive in 1984 under Gordon Wilson.

This was the turning point for the Scots. Even though they were a minority government, the executive was a thorn in Westminster's side, constantly using its powers (and in some cases powers it didn't have) to counter policies from the south. Mrs Thatcher, growing tired of this obstructionism, introduced legislation in 1986 to abolish the Assembly. Wilson called a snap Scottish poll and in the sense of crisis took 84 of the 100 seats. The inevitable independence referendum followed in 1987, showing 52% in favour of leaving the UK. By late 1987, the separation was complete as Scotland struck out on its own under First Secretary Wilson and President Margo MacDonald.

At first all seemed to go well. The creation of the Scottish Fuel Fund, a sort of eternal savings bank for oil revenues, permitted public spending to rise from the dismal levels they had sunk to under Thatcher, while many of the more unpopular decisions taken since 1979 were reversed, such as the abolition of SNHS charges. Scottish membership of the EEC also brought in huge amounts of outside money into impoverished areas, helping to fund projects such as the Skye bridge, high speed rail, wind turbines and urban renewal. In time, this would lead to Scotland being a founding member of the Euro. By 1991, when the new Scottish Parliament used proportional representation for the first time, the new SNP leader Alex Salmond came close to taking over half the votes; instead he ruled as part of the SNP-Green coalition until 1999, and again after the defeat of the Scottish Labour-Lib Dem pact in 2003.

For the rest of the UK, the consequences were mixed. The Conservative government, which lost no MPs itself but saw its opposition shrink in size, was kept in power until 1997, when Labour secured a precarious majority of 27, hindered by the lack of Scottish MPs. There was no economic slump, and people got used to the idea of England's northern neighbour being a bit different. English universities saw declining student numbers as many students took advantage of the lower fees in Scotland. The armed forces still attracted a large number of Scottish recruits, who preferred the Royal Scottish Regiment to the new Scottish Defence Force. Even the Queen seemed to cope; she remained the owner of Balmoral, although for the sake of appearances she sold Holyrood House to the Scottish President Sean Connery in 1995. The separate Scottish political parties worked closely with their Westminster counterparts, but the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition of 1999-2003 failed to re-establish the union, with it being rejected by 71% by voters.

However, this seemingly happy ending all changed in 2007-2011, with the global financial crisis overtaking Scotland. As a former economist, Salmond's claim that he had "abolished English boom and bust" looked ridiculous as the pride of the Scottish financial market, RBS, collapsed, needing an IMF rescue package to help it stay afloat. With the Euro coming close to collapse, and the oil fund draining faster than it was growing, the 2011 Scottish elections saw the pro-UK parties of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Unionists establish a clear majority in parliament. The new First Secretary has already promised another referendum on rejoining the UK, and has already entered talks with London. Whether David Cameron will be able to agree terms with Alistair Darling remains to be seen.

P.S. Scottish First Secretaries

1987-1990- Gordon Wilson (SNP)
1990-1999- Alex Salmond (SNP)
1999-2000- Donald Dewar (Scottish Labour)
2000-2003- Jim Wallace (Scottish Liberal Democrat)
2003-2011- Alex Salmond (SNP)
2011- Alistair Darling (Scottish Labour)

P.P.S. Scottish Presidents

1987-1991- Margo MacDonald (SNP)
1991-1999- Sean Connery (Independent)
1999-2007- Magnus Magnusson (Independent)
2007- George Galloway (Scottish Socialist Party)

Sunday, 18 September 2011

What If... Harold Wilson Was a Spy?

With a new series of Spooks starting tonight, and spy classic Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy grabbing critical accolades, it is with excitement that I heard that John Sessions has been cast to play the lead role in the planned film Harold. The only thing stranger than fiction is the truth.

It defies the mind what Roy Jenkins, then Home Secretary, must have thought in 1975 when Sir Michael Hanley, the Director-General of MI5, came into his office with the huge file and broke the news to him. (Incidentally, being played by Timothy Spall and Richard Griffiths) Harold Wilson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, was a Soviet agent, and had been since 1957. But in retrospect it all made sense. Wilson had made so many trips to the USSR in the late 1950s he was bound to have been affected, while for the KGB this was a priceless opportunity to get an agent into the very top of British politics. Wilson's two attempts to become Labour leader, the second successful, were conducted on the back of orders from Moscow. (Director Oliver Stone is expected to stoke the issue further by hinting that Wilson may have poisoned his predecessor Hugh Gaitskell).

During his time in office in the 1960s, Wilson's dire handling of the economy was of huge benefit to the Soviet Union as it forced the USA to prop it up, while by keeping Britain's large military bases east of Suez a major NATO player was hopelessly overstretched. Wilson's refusal to back the American war in Vietnam also a major boost to the Russians as it allowed them to portray it as American imperialism rather than a principled stand for democracy. It is also telling that MI5 was unable to get on top of the KGB threat during these years.

But things began to change when Wilson was unexpectedly defeated in the 1970 election. His Soviet paymasters were furious with this democratic sloppiness, leading him to become detached and disillusioned with British politics. Meanwhile, MI5 was able to get on top of the threat from Eastern Bloc agents in 1972, when they first uncovered evidence of what was going on. They were steadily gathering evidence against him when he was surprisingly re-elected in 1974. So great was the threat to British security they moved as soon as they could.

Jenkins' first move was to call an emergency cabinet session for that afternoon, then ordered the police to arrest Wilson at Chequers. It would have worked, had the Social Services Secretary, Barbara Castle, not phoned ahead to let Wilson know she suspected Jenkins was trying to oust him. In a dramatic car chase, Wilson managed to reach the Soviet Embassy before the police caught him. A week long siege by police and the Security Service failed to extract Wilson, which produced the amusing sight of senior politicians shouting through megaphones at the Soviet embassy by way of diplomacy. From there, Wilson claimed asylum in the USSR and left to spend the rest of his life in exile.

At home, there was uproar. Labour hurriedly chose Jim Callaghan as its new leader, but the public outrage was so great, and with Labour's backbenchers defecting in droves to the Liberals, Callaghan was forced into calling an immediate election. The revelations had the same effect as the Zinoviev Letter in 1924. Public fury saw Labour reduced to a mere 139 seats, with even Callaghan being defeated. The Conservatives, under new leader Margaret Thatcher, were propelled into office, with 429 seats and a majority of 223. However, Thatcher's recent elevation to her party leadership meant she was forced to turn elsewhere for help. Her predecessor, Edward Heath, became Foreign Secretary, while his trusted deputy Willie Whitelaw became Home Secretary. This was the start of one of the most remarkable and constructive relationships in modern British politics; indeed when Heath and Whitelaw stood down from the Cabinet in 1986 many began to see Thatcher losing her way.

While at first the economy continued to deteriorate, by 1979 the unions had been smashed in the Winter of Discontent, while enough growth had returned to keep Thatcher in power. During the 1980s the government embarked on a radical free market programme which saw many of Britain's state owned industries sold off, while the NHS and school system was exposed to a lot of external influences. But not even the total discrediting of Labour could allow Thatcher to go all the way; her attempts to abolish student grants and introduce a poll tax led to her resignation in 1989, with successor Douglas Hurd moving the Tories back towards the centre ground.

For Labour, the trauma of 1975 was to haunt it for several generations. The third leader of 1975 was Michael Foot, who by 1979 had managed to restore the prestige of the party to some extent, especially amongst left-wing voters. However, the continuation of this rehabilitation under Peter Shore was interrupted in 1984, when Tony Benn managed to be elected leader, arguing that the public could distinguish between the party's past mistakes and a promise of a socialist future; judging by the 1987 election result, he was wildly wrong. It would not be until 1996 that Labour would be trusted with power again, with new Prime Minister Tony Blair promising to be "purer than pure".

P.S. Prime Ministers

Harold Wilson- 1964-1970
Ted Heath- 1970-1974
Harold Wilson- 1974-1975
Jim Callaghan-1975
Margaret Thatcher- 1975-1989
Douglas Hurd- 1989-1996
Tony Blair- 1996-2006
Gordon Brown- 2006-2008
David Cameron- 2008-

Labour Leaders

Harold Wilson- 1963-1975
Jim Callaghan- 1975
Michael Foot- 1975-1979
Peter Shore- 1979-1984
Tony Benn- 1984-1987
John Smith- 1987-1994
Tony Blair- 1994-2006
Gordon Brown- 2006-2008
Alan Johnson- 2008-

Conservative Leaders

Margaret Thatcher- 1975-1989
Douglas Hurd- 1989-1996
William Hague- 1996-2000
Michael Portillo- 2000-2005
David Cameron- 2005-

Saturday, 17 September 2011

What If... Eagle Claw Succeeded?

The recent ceremonies to commemorate the 10th anniversary of 9/11 has inevitably drawn mentions of the raid earlier this year which brought the hunt for 9/11's mastermind, Osama Bin Laden, to a dramatic end. Some commentators are even calling the raid 'the new Eagle Claw.'

For those who don't follow recent American history, or have somehow avoided the endless TV documentaries and dramas, Operation Eagle Claw was the 1980 special forces mission which rescued the 52 hostages held by Iranian revolutionaries at the US embassy in Tehran. Although almost scuppered by a helicopter fault, the sheer bravery and determination of the Delta Force operatives meant that no hostages were killed in the rescue, and only a single Delta operative was lost. The early arrogance of the Iranian Islamic revolutionaries was severely blunted by this setback.

The rescue was immediately felt in the United States, boosting the flagging poll ratings of President Jimmy Carter. With the immediate threat to US interests diminished, Carter was able to leave the White House situation room and hit the campaign trail in an election year. As well as Eagle Claw, Carter could point to the Camp David Accords and the Panama Treaty, as well as improved relations with the USSR. Compared to these achievements, his Republican adversary, Ronald Reagan, looked like a lightweight: "There you go again," was his only effective reply to Carter's listing of his achievements. However, the terrible state of the economy meant that, in both the popular vote and the electoral college, Carter only just scraped home in November 1980. No matter, it was enough.

Using his new mandate, Carter set about his next term. On the domestic front, his economic policies helped to drag the US economy out of its 1970s stagflation, without resorting to government cutbacks as advocated by the Republicans. Neither did he succumb to the temptation to vastly increase public borrowing to fund the federal government, as the Republicans had been accused of planning. His pledge to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil led to investments in sci-fi-esque technologies such as solar power and wind turbines; their true significance would not be realised until into the next decade.

But it is in foreign affairs that carter really made his mark. His 1982 Conference on the Middle East led to the creation of a state of Palestine based upon the 1967 borders; it is said that Yasser Arafat kept the picture of Carter signing the Atlanta Accords above his desk for the rest of his life. Although tensions continued to flare between Palestine and Israel, this marked a real turning point. The subsequent decision by the PLO to renounce violence also saw a marked decrease in international terrorism. Always reluctant to use force, Carter's administration imposed sanctions against Iran and Libya instead of sending in the Air Force. His principled stand against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan helped him to shore up NATO, while at the same he kept open contacts with Moscow, helping to guide the Western alliance through a period when the leadership of the USSR was almost paralysed, and the prospect of blundering into a nuclear war was very real. But things weren't all rosy; Carter's ideological gulf from the British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, plus their blazing rows over the Falklands dispute, effectively ended the Special Relationship.

When he left office in 1985, Jimmy Carter had the highest approval ratings of any outgoing US President. His successor was Teddy Kennedy, elected in the Democratic landslide of 1984. Kennedy managed to achieve his lifetime goal of universal, free at the point of use healthcare in the US, but at the cost of almost all his political will and capital. In 1988 the Republicans seized back the Presidency, with George Bush senior assuring the electorate he wouldn't raise taxes to pay for Medicover.

Bush also proved to be a one term President thanks to his incompetence and economic woes. Under Bill Clinton, the USA finally lived up to carter's dream in the mid 1990s by taking the lead role in the Kyoto Climate Pact. Not even the global-warming sceptic George W Bush junior was able to completely reverse this landmark treaty.

Carter's legacy will be felt more keenly than ever in the coming months, as Barrack Obama has confirmed that Carter's Executive Order on the treatment of prisoners and their right to a trial will be upheld even for America's most reviled prisoner: Osama Bin Laden himself.

P.S. US Presidents

1977-1985- Jimmy Carter
1985-1989- Teddy Kennedy
1989-1993- George HW Bush
1993-2001- Bill Clinton
2001-2009- George W Bush
2009- Barrack Obama

Monday, 5 September 2011

What If... The Tories Opposed Iraq?

The 2002 Conservative Party conference will hardly go down in history as one of Britain's greatest political events. If anything, it will be remembered for Theresa May's labelling of the party as "the nasty party." However, a fringe speech by veteran Tory Ken Clarke should also be recalled. In this, Clarke warned listeners that "Many Conservatives take the view that they want something very much more ordered than this. They are not just signing up to a march on Baghdad, a change of regime without a wider coalition or some supporting body of legality."
This was a direct swipe at floundering leader Iain Duncan Smith, who had publicly backed Tony Blair's slow moves towards invading Iraq to disarm Saddam Hussein of his 'Weapons of Mass Destruction.' At first little changed; the official Conservative line remained in favour of the war. However, in early 2003, when the depth of opposition to the war became clear, both within the country and within the Tory Party, Duncan Smith began to change his mind. As the messages from the party began to change, urging Blair to get a UN Resolution to justify the attack, senior Tories began to appear at anti-war rallies and marches around the country, culminating in the appearance of Iain Duncan Smith next to Tony Benn, Charles Kennedy, Banksy, Kate Moss and Bianca Jagger at the huge anti-war rally in February 2003.
Alas, it was all to prove in vain, as Blair won the backing of the Commons and went to war anyway, even without the support of the UN. As the weapons of mass destruction didn't show up, and the country descended into violent chaos, the Conservatives pulled ahead of labour in the opinion polls. This was boosted late in 2003 when Michael Howard replaced IDS as Tory leader following doubts over his appeal.
Under Howard, the Conservative party adopted a distinctive line on Iraq; while it supported the Army now it had gone in, Blair had lied to the country over the danger posed. This was very in tune with the public mood, and as the 2005 election approached Blair's government began to flounder, with the introduction of higher university fees only just scraping through parliament, the Hutton Inquiry discrediting the case for war in 2003 and the controversial anti fox hunting laws being passed; the only glimmer of light was Ken Livingstone's narrow re-election as Mayor of London.
But as the 2005 election approached, it became obvious that it was going to be close. Eight years of Labour had not removed the memory of 18 years on Tory rule in many people's minds. Howard's campaign centred around a return to a sort of Thatcherite-light party, with lower taxes and less bureaucracy. This, combined with the opposition to Iraq, helped to deliver the UK's first elected hung parliament since 1974, with the Tories taking 283 seats to Labour's 271; the Liberal Democrats also benefited from an anti-Iraq surge to take 62 seats.
Howard formed a minority government, with a view to going back to the country once his 'priority list' of actions was complete. So by Sept 2006 when he called a new poll, he could point to the cutting of red tape in the police, schools and hospitals, while immigration controls had been tightened and tuition fees scrapped, replaced by interest on maintenance loans. The result was a Conservative majority of 48. Labour, still reeling from the defeat of 2005, had ousted Blair and replaced him with Gordon Brown, but this did little to save the party; it dropped to 168 seats and 23.3% of the vote, only 0.2% ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who increased their tally to 91 MPs.
Unfortunately for Howard, his political honeymoon didn't last very long. By mid-2007, the global financial crisis which defined his premiership was underway, with Chancellor Oliver Letwin and Trade and Industry Secretary John Redwood taking a very hands-off approach to the problem; the result was the near collapse of the UK banking sector. The substantial cuts in public spending, along with large rises in taxation, which was the government's response to the crisis, helped further alienate the government and tip the economy over the edge. The privatisation of the Royal Mail led to a chaos which reminded many of the privatisation of the railways under John Major. When it became clear that the interest from student loans would not cover the cost of courses, fees were reintroduced at the eye-wateringly high level of £8500. The ending of the hunting ban did little good except outside core Tory supporters. Iain Duncan Smith's attempts to reform the welfare system, while sensible, were enacted at the worst possible moment. Unemployment rose as productivity nosedived. To cap the economic woes, the close ties between Culture, Media and Sport Secretary David Cameron and News International proved toxic as a scandal over tabloid phone hacking reached the very heart of government. By 2011, Howard had stood down in favour of William Hague, his Defence Secretary, but other than some progress in environment areas and welfare, the Tories had little to show for their six years in government. They had failed to learn the lesson of 1997, that to appeal they had to modernise.
Against them, Labour pitted Alan Johnson, a former trade-unionist who was easy going and popular with the public. Johnson was much more ruthless than he appeared in public, as he managed to take Labour back to the left and replace much of his front bench team. His promises to grow Britain out of recession, rather than simply cut its way out, struck a chord with a public already tired of five years of public sector cuts, while Chancellor Oliver Letwin was pilloried in the press for failing to hold the banks to account for their role in derailing the economy. But when the election of 2011 came, it was not quite enough. Labour took 301 seats to Hague's 225, and it looked like another minority government.
To everyone's utter amazement, Johnson managed to negotiate a deal with the Liberal Democrats, creating the UK's first coalition government since the Second World War. Standing on the steps of Number 10 with his new deputy, Nick Clegg, Johnson hailed the new arrangement as "the healing of the progressive divide in Britain." With new policies on the table including renationalising the railways and postal services, keeping one bank in public ownership, increased public spending to beat the downturn, the replacement of the House of Lords with an elected chamber, an English Assembly and maybe even changes on how Westminster MPs are elected, the coalition looks set to do just that.

P.S. Howard Cabinet, 2005

Prime Minister- Michael Howard
Deputy PM, First Secretary of State and Minister for Constitutional Affairs- Michael Ancram
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Oliver Letwin
Foreign Secretary- Ken Clarke
Home Secretary- David Davis
Defence Secretary- William Hague
Education Secretary- Tim Collins
Health Secretary- Andrew Lansley
Transport Secretary- Tim Yeo
Trade and Industry Secretary- John Redwood
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Caroline Spelman
Local Government and the Regions Secretary- Eric Pickles
International Development Secretary- Alan Duncan
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- David Cameron
Work and Pensions Secretary- Iain Duncan Smith
Families and Equality Secretary- Theresa May
Scottish Secretary- Lord Strathclyde
Welsh Secretary- Bill Wiggin
Northern Ireland Secretary- David Lidington
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- George Osborne
Attorney General- Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Liam Fox (Chairman of the Conservative Party)
Lord Chancellor- Lord Kingsland
Leader of the House of Commons- Sir George Young
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Heseltine
Olympics Minister- Lord Coe

P.P.S. Lib-Lab Cabinet, 2011

Prime Minister- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Deputy PM, Lord President of the Council and Minister for Political Reform- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State- David Miliband (Lab)
Home Secretary- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Defence Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Health Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Transport Secretary- Norman Baker (Lib Dem)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Sadiq Kahn (Lab)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary- John Cruddas (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Douglas Alexander (Lab)
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Climate Change Secretary- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Ben Bradshaw (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Danny Alexander (Lib Dem)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Lab)
Northern Ireland Secretary- Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Alistair Darling (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster- Tony Lloyd (Chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party)
Lord Privy Seal- Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader)
Leaders of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman (Lab) and Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
Leaders of the House of Lords- Baroness Royall (Lab) and Lord Ashdown (Lib Dem)
Universities Minister- Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem)